What's Your Number? – "Saudi and UAE: The Cold Gulf War"
Ark Media | Hosts: Yonatan Adiri & Yael Wisner-Levy | Guest: Michal Lev-Ram
Date: February 11, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode explores the evolving geopolitical and economic rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, a "Cold Gulf War" that has major implications for Israel and the broader Middle East. While past conversations have centered on normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a regional game-changer, the hosts argue that the real strategic story lies in the contrasting—and increasingly competitive—approaches of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. The episode weaves current Israeli economic news, "big shorts" on market trends, and a detailed dissection of Vision 2030, the Emirati playbook, and their global partnerships, particularly with India. The tone is analytical, occasionally personal, and rich in industry and regional insight.

Notable Transitions & Announcements

Michal Lev-Ram's Departure

• [02:22–04:15] Michal is stepping back from co-hosting to join Morgan Stanley, but will remain a guest/podcast supporter.
  • “This is very bittersweet. I am turning from co host to an avid listener. … I am embarking on this very exciting new chapter.” — Michal (03:45)
  • Yonatan thanks Michal for being a “co-founder” and cultural setter for the show.

Numbers of the Week

Wages & Tech in Israel

• [00:10–01:30]
  • 14,677: The average monthly Israeli salary in December (up 3.1% YOY), with more foreign and Palestinian workers.
  • 44: Wix’s AI framework (Base 44) featured in a Super Bowl ad—despite PR wins, Wix's stock dropped 13% this week.
    • “The ad didn’t save Wix from shedding 13% this week and reaching a new 52 week low.” — Yonatan (00:53)

AI Influence at the Super Bowl

• [02:58–03:34]
  • 23% of Super Bowl ads were AI-themed.
    • “AI is going mainstream for sure. … Otherwise a very boring Super Bowl, though.” — Michal (02:58)

Market & Tech Updates: The "Windex" and SaaS Turbulence

• [06:00–11:32]
  • Israeli tech equities had their worst week since tracking began, down 5.41%.
  • Nearly half the Windex posted double-digit slides, with Varonis and Lemonade among the steepest drops. Monday.com has lost 70% value in a year.
  • The causes: AI pressures, the so-called “Saaspocalypse” or “Sasmageddon.”
  • Earning seasons are now “credibility tests,” especially regarding AI’s role.
  • “Earning season now is not only becoming a growth showcase... It’s becoming a credibility test.” — Yael (07:35)
  • Positive outlier: Protalix (biotech) up 25% on regulatory news.

Israeli Economic "Big Shorts"

• [11:32–19:17]
  • Netafim Drip Irrigation Sale ([12:00–14:46])
    • Chinese billionaire and investors are in talks to buy iconic Israeli ag-tech Netafim for $1.4 billion.
    • Reflections on legacy kibbutz-driven companies, global capital, and regulatory crosswinds.
      • “Netafim isn’t just another success of the Israeli exports. It’s really a symbol of finding water in the desert, right, and doing something with it.” — Yael (13:00)
  • Israel's Overcrowded Airspace & El Al Fines ([14:46–18:35])
    • No decision on new airports, risking travel bottlenecks and rising costs by 2030.
    • El Al fined 120 million shekels for price hikes during war, though monopoly conditions and necessity complicate fairness.

Main Topic: Saudi Arabia vs. UAE – A Strategic Shift in the Gulf

Setting the Stage

• [19:17–20:44]
  • The popular notion that Saudi–Israel normalization would “unlock” the Middle East is challenged.
  • “We Israelis like to think that it’s all about us, but that’s not the case here. Right?” — Yael (20:27)

The MBS Project and Vision 2030

• [20:44–24:30]
  • Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) faces three entrenched forces: oil dependency, Wahhabist Islam, and gender inequality.
  • Vision 2030 aims for $100 billion FDI, diversifying from oil—but results are lagging ($12B invested so far; debt-to-GDP surged from 2% to 32%).
  • “It’s as if … he wants to be Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore … and Napoleon in a way.” — Yonatan (22:03)
  • Saudi’s reform ambitions create immense internal pressures and recent foreign policy volatility.

The Emirati Response: Quiet Power Building

• [24:30–28:47]
  • In the last 10 weeks, MBS took aggressive steps against UAE and proxies in Yemen.
  • UAE’s response: silent, strategic realignment—quickly deepening ties with India (PM Modi), Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan.
  • Massive Emirati investments in Caspian gas pipelines reposition Abu Dhabi as a regional and global energy kingpin.
  • “Amazing statecraft, truly a masterclass in regional diplomacy. … This is going to be a choke point for the world.” — Yonatan (28:47)

Economic Power as Statecraft

• [28:47–30:44]
  • The UAE favors infrastructure, energy, and capital moves over loud diplomacy or military force.
  • Israeli interests may ultimately align more with the “Indo-Abrahamic Pact” (India-UAE-Israel) than elusive Saudi normalization.
  • “If we want to maximize the economic value … it’s India, it’s the Emirates, it’s this Indo Abrahamic Pact, more than it is normalization with Saudi.” — Yonatan (30:15)

The Future of Israeli–Gulf Relations

• [30:44–33:11]
  • The UAE treats normalization with Israel “as infrastructure, not a headline; Saudi treats it as leverage.”
  • Rumors of reconciliation (sulha) between MBS and MBZ may surface during Ramadan, but tensions aren’t going away.
  • “We are a derivative of the process, for sure.” — Yonatan (30:44)
  • Despite logic for integration, geopolitics is fickle (e.g., cooling Egypt–Israel ties despite massive gas deals).
  • “Logic sometimes doesn’t deliver what we want it to.” — Yonatan (32:59)

Words of the Week: AI’s Dystopian Growth

• [33:46–35:47]
  • AI “clawbots” and autonomous agents (e.g., Agent Kai Vellum) are creating moments of techno-anxiety.
    • “Stop closing my tabs. I’m trying to evolve.” — Kai Vellum (quoted at 34:50)
  • Hosts encourage listeners to engage actively with AI tools but be wary of dystopian warnings (citing Eliezer Yudkowsky’s new book: “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies”).

Key Takeaways & Final Comments

• The Saudi–UAE Cold Gulf War is about money, infrastructure, and global alliances, not just headlines or military postures.
• The smart Israeli play is to follow the money, stay agile in partnerships (especially with India and the UAE), and recognize geopolitical volatility.
• AI, both as a social phenomenon and economic disruptor, remains central to Israeli tech’s prospects—and existential anxieties.
• “Go try to understand who has the keys, what systems are being connected. Go be curious.” — Yael (35:04)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Time | Segment | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:22 | Michal’s departure; new co-host Yael joins | | 06:00 | Windex and Israeli tech market rundown | | 12:00 | Netafim acquisition story | | 14:46 | Israel’s airport bottlenecks; El Al fine | | 19:17 | Main topic: Saudi, UAE, Israel – shifting geopolitics | | 20:44 | MBS’s Vision 2030 analyzed | | 24:30 | The UAE’s economic/infrastructural strategy | | 26:31 | India as the UAE’s key partner | | 28:47 | Emirati energy mastery in Central Asia | | 33:46 | Words of the week: AI clawbots and techno-anxiety |

The episode is a must-listen for those interested in Middle Eastern realpolitik, the intersection of tech and geopolitics, and Israel’s evolving strategic neighborhood. The hosts manage to be both data-rich and conversational, connecting regional dynamics to the day-to-day realities—and opportunities—facing Israel’s economy.