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Yonatan Adiri
Foreign. You are listening to an art media podcast.
Michal Avram
So, Yonatan, what's your number this week?
Yonatan Adiri
It's 5.2. As in $5.2 billion raised by Israeli tech companies in Q2 2025 thus far. We're not even at the end of the quarter. That is a record quarter since Q2 2022. That was peak Covid bubble. It's important to say this data does not include major defense tech investments. These go to public equities in Israel and New York. To me, it's absolutely incredible to see the ecosystem, you know, pushing forward, boldly going where no one has gone before. Definitely not in parallel to a war raging still in Gaza.
Michal Avram
Okay, My number is 150 million. And this is the number of tourists that Saudi Arabia is hoping to attract by 2030 annually. They have already hit their target of 100 million tourists into the country last year. Really bold, ambitious number here, I should say. By the way, this includes Muslims making their pilgrimage. It's business tourists. It's all sorts of travelers. But a very impressive number here, I think. So who wins?
Yonatan Adiri
I agree it's an impressive number, but I take Israeli hard cash into the tech industry in record quarter over Saudi ambitions. I'm siding with my number this time.
Michal Avram
Okay, I have to hand it to you. You win. I agree with you. But I hope that at some point in the near future Saudi ambition is going to meet Israeli dollars, that those two will converge in some way.
Yonatan Adiri
I think we agree on that. And that's in a way, the theme of the epis.
Michal Avram
Welcome to what's yous Number? The newest podcast from ARC Media where we focus on Israel's economy through a global lens. I'm Michal Avram.
Yonatan Adiri
I'm Yonatan adiri.
Michal Avram
It is 9am here in Paso Robles, California. You will notice I went straight from Riyadh to wine country. That's one thing they don't have. There is wine region. So 9am here in Paso Robles.
Yonatan Adiri
7Pm here in Tel Aviv in Jerusalem. Day.
Michal Avram
It's good to be home, right? It's always a nice feeling when you get back. Although I have to say that the five days I spent in Riyadh were really incredible. I'm still processing. I think this kind of says it all. So I left on a. It was a Thursday last week. The very following day, Friday evening, guess who played in Riyadh. Guess which band played since I know the answer.
Yonatan Adiri
And it's the band of my youth, right?
Michal Avram
Yes. Guns N Roses, which is amazing. It totally made me Think, by the way, this is like one of my favorite Icebreakers. Yonatan is what's the first concert you ever went to and where. So you have to tell me real quick.
Yonatan Adiri
Michael Jackson here in Israel in the early 90s. Crazy. Hayekon Park. Huge, huge, huge show.
Michal Avram
Amazing. Mine was at Hayokon also, and it was Aerosmith, which is another one of those, you know, kind of like Guns N Roses. Right.
Yonatan Adiri
My bat mitzvah gift. The love of my life when I was 12 years old was the Aerosmith record, the one with the cow on the front.
Michal Avram
Yeah, this is bringing up a lot of good memories. But yeah, I think it's an indication, just one little data point in sort of where Riyadh is now and where it's going. And we'll get to a lot of that later on in the episode. Last week we focused on sort of just the nuts and bolts of the US Saudi deal, what was in and importantly what was out. This week we're going to do part two. We'll give a bit of color from my time on the ground in Saudi Arabia and talk about normalization. I think from my point of view, Jonathan, I feel more strongly than ever that this is going to be so impactful if and when it happens and that it needs to happen now. I don't know what your point of view is on that, but I think we should be pushing for it like crazy.
Yonatan Adiri
You know, strategically speaking, clearly, that's the goal. If you remember, on September 26th, a couple of weeks before the deadly October 7th invasion, one of the Saudi princes, I'm saying it wasn't mbs, but one of his associates mentioned that normalization with Israel is there within weeks. And that was in many regards, the impetus for Sinwar and Hamas's atrocities on October 7 was actually to prevent Saudi Israeli normalization. And I think in many ways closing that loop and a real victory over Hamas would be indeed an Israel that belongs to the region, that is indigenous, that extends all the way from India to Ethiopia, with the core in the center there being Saudi Arabia. So I'm in full agreement.
Michal Avram
Well, we will get to all of that shortly. But first, as usual, let's take a look at some of the week's other pressing news, AKA our big shorts. This includes some key numbers that should be on your radar, like our wind decks. So stay with us for that. Onto our big shorts. Let's kick things off with this week's what's your number index, AKA the Windex. This is our index of the stock performance of 50 publicly traded companies on U.S. exchanges that are headquartered in Israel and or founded by Israeli founders. So Yonatan, how is the Windex looking this week?
Yonatan Adiri
So Etoro, we spoke of Etoro last week as they went through a successful ipo. That is the first Israeli company to go through an IPO in quite some time, at least a significant one. It is tomorrow after Memorial Day. We are recording on Memorial Day about to celebrate its eighth trading day which means as its bris gift, it's going to go into the Windex. It's going to be the 51st ticker on our Windex. Jokes aside, an active week for Israeli companies in New York. Etoro, you know, widely received, big hug, big embrace from Wall Street. Really great to see an Israeli D2C company led by one of its, you know, finest entrepreneurs, Yoni Asia meeting finally after the whole crypto dynamics over the last number of years meeting investors on Wall Street. The other piece was north of a half billion dollar raised by Elbit. Again going back to our previous episode on defense tech, Elbit, probably the biggest non government defense tech company as we analyzed a couple of weeks ago, seeing where the trends are going and raising just enough capital to accelerate its growth considering where the markets are going specifically. You know it's been a tough week in Wall Street. S and p shed about 1.70%, Nasdaq about 1% and coincidentally or not the Windex also underperforming, both with 2% decline. I think two notable ones for us is you know one of our pod favorites, Oddity, the direct to consumer cosmetics brand Il Maquillage among others climbed 10 over 10 and a half percent last week and solared shedding 24% reversing the trend that we covered over the last couple of weeks. I think the last one and this one is one to follow over the next few Weeks has been Wix.com, one of the top world cloud based web developers, right? Shed 17.25 almost 17 and a quarter percent on a weak Q1 report and forecast. A lot of things in and around how AI is going to impact Israeli direct to consumer technology if you can with base 44 or this upcoming agent AI reality that we discussed last week. Are people going to make WIX obsolete? I don't think so and I think WIX is going to adjust and adapt. But I think some of the concerns over Wall street is where is AI going to impact the Fiverr.coms of the world, the Wixes of the world. So that's one to follow.
Michal Avram
Well Going back to Etoro for a second, I did want to mention that when I was in Riyadh, I was at this conference and I was interviewing a couple of venture capitalists, one from the Gulf region, one from Silicon Valley, on stage at the event I was attending and participating in. And anyways, I was able to give a shout out to Etoro, which felt really great being like on a stage in Riyadh and saying, you know, this Israeli company, could they be the one to open the, to reopen the IPO window? So that was a cool moment for me. Okay, lots going on from the US we did see the one big beautiful bill passing the House and moving on to the Senate. We'll see what happens there. This has been hugely controversial here in the United States for a number of reasons. Basically, at its core, some of it at least, is an extension of President Trump's 2017 tax cuts and Jobs Act. It includes border security funding, some controversial changes to Medicaid. These are all kind of inside baseball, if you can say that, for the U.S. but what we want to get at here is, Yoratan, some of your thoughts on what this means from an Israeli economic perspective. So what are your I know you have some concerns here.
Yonatan Adiri
So obviously both economies are tied. They are geostrategically tied, and there are very unique economic relationships between the US And Israel. So when the American economy goes into what may be a prolonged inflationary pressure, that's how the bond market reacted to the passing of the bill. That would put a strain, a further strain on Israel's growth over the next few years. I think I want to maybe take one important issue and kind of put it out here. We're going to cover that probably in one of the long forms ahead. Israel is nearing the beginning of the negotiation in both countries, the bilateral negotiation of the next 10 year of the military aid, the last one, has been negotiated. And we've seen a decade with $3.8 billion per year of American aid. Just to kind of give our listeners a sense this money is spent in the US this is not money that's given to Israel. It is, if you will, like a credit line for Israeli defense companies and for the Israeli Defense Administration to purchase American defense products. These are the Boeings, Lockheed Martins of the world. And there is a very serious discussion in Israel. When you hear the sort of isolationist part in the American, like on the Hill and also on the left, this notion that why are we spending and supporting Israel through our budget? So with tougher and tighter budgets, this is going to be an issue to contend with. And there are two camps in Israel that are worthwhile covering here. One says, look, it's a fiscal nuance. Israel's $550 billion economy. This money used to be meaningful for the Israeli defense budget. It no longer is. As the size of the Israeli economy, Israel should be kind of throw the gauntlet first and say, hey, we give up on the 3.8 billion. We're a strong economy. We don't need to be dependent on the US for that and kind of preempt what could be quite a diatribe on the Hill, which would be negative for Israel and for the Partnership. The other argument is it is 3.8. But there are specific districts in the US that rely on this cycle for every 10 years. There are defense companies that have a strong tie communities in the US to the Israeli Defense administration. I think this debate is going to come up and it's going to be intense. It's already here. It's going to get intensified if the American economy goes into an inflationary or a stagflationary, which could be worse cycle. So for me, looking at it strategically from our side, of course this is an American issue. But if indeed America goes through inflation or stagflation, I think that the next big thing on the agenda, the bilateral one, would be the 3.8. I would actually advocate for Israel to cease the military aid. I think it's again, fiscally not that important. And just to keep it clean, it would be the right thing to do.
Michal Avram
One thing that caught my eye, in addition to everything you said, which maybe doesn't have direct impact on Israel, but indirectly could. Is that tied up in this bill? Is this moratorium, 10 year moratorium on states? Yeah, on states regulating AI, which again could have some indirect impact here. So I thought that was, who knows what'll happen with that, by the way, because we're seeing so much hold up in courts over a lot of things that President Trump is trying to do. So take it with a grain of salt, but it's in there for now.
Yonatan Adiri
A side effect of the Trump visit in the Middle east was that the whole tiered approach for who can buy chips and microprocessors from Nvidia and others and has been relieved. New concerns have come up now that because of this kind of relief, China could get a hold of this, that or another technology. I actually think that this is a bit of a secondary thing. And very quickly, again, we had that discussion related to Sam Altman's comment. I Think it's very quickly going to become an energy issue and not so much the data center issue. I think that's going to get resolved one way or another. So agree. It's a very important topic. I'm very happy for the Israeli ecosystem that it can build its supercomputer now and it couldn't have done so under the tier 10 dynamics.
Michal Avram
Well, let's move on to another part of the world that has huge impact on the Israeli economy and that's the eu. We have seen, obviously, the war re escalating in Gaza, concerns over a humanitarian crisis, and that in turn has brought about an increase in criticism and condemnation from some world leaders, including in the eu. Yonatan, you're starting to see some real steps being taken here that could have real consequences for Israel. Can you go ahead and share what they are and what the concerns are here? Because it's worrying.
Yonatan Adiri
Let's go back to the first number, right? It's been a record quarter in capital raises for the Israeli tech ecosystem, but underneath the tech ecosystem. Going back to our discussion of what doesn't exist yet in the Gulf, even though there was a good $100 billion investment over a decade plus in trying to create the university basic research layer that could then kind of feed an ecosystem of innovation, that ecosystem of innovation relies predominantly on global grants, that is NSF, NIH in the US and it is the Horizon 2020 used to be and the EP7 in Europe now, covering $125 billion over the next seven to eight years. Israel has traditionally been the biggest winner of those grants. So the way it works is every country puts in a certain amount of its GDP into a pool of money in Europe, and then it's a free for all based on merit, that universities and consortia of universities that apply for big grants, 100 million grant, 120 million grant, 50 million euro grants. Israel has been number one in the last decade in getting more than 21% of its grant requests approved, number one before Netherlands, Germany and others. So we get usually three times, between two and three times more than what we deposit in the pool back for R and D. Now, this is really at risk. Last week, just to kind of. I don't want to bore our listeners with the details just to understand. Israel has what's called an association agreement with the eu, which means we're not part of the eu, but for the sake of cultural and sports and R and D, we are considered eligible.
Michal Avram
And the Eurovision, don't forget, please, that's.
Yonatan Adiri
Actually outside of that but, yeah, but very important. But going back to this, the common knowledge was that for Israel to be injured by that, the EU needs to cancel the association agreement. Well, guess what? Last week, ministers in Europe have voted 17 on 27 to bring this question into a formal discussion. We don't know which country voted how. This is still kind of under the ropes. We don't know.
Michal Avram
Do they disclose at some point or it's kept blind?
Yonatan Adiri
They don't have to. They don't have to. After the discussion will be complete, there will be a vote that should be public. And here's the deal. They can freeze parts of the association agreement not in a unanimous vote. And that means that if 55% of the European Union countries vote to freeze Israeli access to RD funds, then Israel can find itself in a very, very, very tight position. Now this made the headlines in Israel and again, everything gets bipolar here. One part of the Israeli kind of media and public discourse like, oh, you know, this will never happen. The other part was like, well, if this happens, what do we do? This is not about the money. And that's my last comment here. I mean, Israel can again, like I said about the U.S. military aid, the Israeli economy can do with another billion, which is like 0.18% of its GDP, so to kind of self invest like China. But Israel is small and it relies on these huge network effects of universities in Europe that drive our basic research. So this is not just about the money. This is about legitimizing the ability to work on basic research with Israel. Big deal. We'll keep an eye on that. You know, this is kind of like a signal that got lost in the news because of the political piece like, oh, they hate us, they don't. We can't be childish about this. We can't be infantile about this. This is a big deal with really high, possible high impact on the Israeli tech ecosyste.
Michal Avram
Yeah, and I think that's the point here for me is that politics aside, judgment aside, you know, fairness aside, this is hugely impactful and really detrimental. And by the way, a lot of what we're focusing on in this episode is how does Israel become a more ingrained part of the global ecosystem and especially this emerging economic ecosystem in the Gulf countries, if at the same time we're at risk of becoming decoupled, even on just this level, which is a fundamental level from partners in the eu, that's huge.
Yonatan Adiri
It's an engine of growth. Right? The number we started the episode with cannot exist without the, the fundamental layer of A very robust, you know, basic research. And basic research is a global phenomenon specifically for a country the size of Israel. So you're spot on. We need to keep a close eye on that. And again, not to be infantile about how we look at this. Oh, it's Europe. Europe has a political. It's. It doesn't matter. Right. The facts matter on the ground. If Israel's out of the EP7, it's a big deal. And it's not just the money that doesn't end up here.
Michal Avram
All right, let's get to our long play. This is our deep dive into one significant issue that's impacting the Israeli economy. And as I mentioned earlier, we're doing part two on.
Yonatan Adiri
We're switching gears.
Michal Avram
We are. We're switching gears, but we're doing part two on Saudi Arabia. And I'm going to hand the steering wheel over to Yonatan.
Yonatan Adiri
So I'm actually very excited. You guys should know, everybody listening. We didn't have time to have a proper debrief on your visit in Saudi. I've never been. I've been to the region, never been to Saudi. I'm super excited to hear your thoughts. We discussed Israel not being a villain in the jungle anymore and how this idea must die. So in Israel not being a villa in the jungle, the question is, is Israel a villa? Probably not anymore. And you made the point. It's no longer a jungle outside. Maybe it never was, by the way. And so in a way, right. It's not a jungle anymore. What really captured my imagination was your description of the energy that you found there. So tell me about your first impressions. Landing there, feeling this energy. Walk us through how that felt, landing and getting into the local ecosystem.
Michal Avram
I have so much to say, Yonatan, so bear with me. But. Okay, but when you're first there, the little bit of walking around that I did, because keep in mind, it's crazy hot, right? But the little bit of walking around I did, it's very misleading because your first impressions are that it is still a very conservative, very religious country. And it is. When you get behind closed doors. This Fortune conference that I attended, which, by the way, was for women business leaders, which we'll get to. When you're talking to people more one on one, you realize the profound change that this country has gone through in such a short amount of time. And what better way to see that profound change than through the eyes of female business leaders, Right? Saudi women. I talked to a lot of expats as well, but the energy, the Optimism, the development, this hunger, this ambition is like, it's infectious. And I was blown away by it. The only thing that I've ever experienced that's even semi comparable is Silicon Valley back in the day. And honestly, it made me realize both in Israel to an extent for sure, and for good reason, and in the US as well, we've become so cynical, we've become so jaded. We don't appreciate the advancements in society, we don't appreciate the human creativity and the era that we're living through for all the bad that's there. And when I was there, I was like, oh my God, this is, you know, it's like it brought me back to again, this kind of, this optimism. So, Jonathan, my other big, big takeaway from my time on the ground, there is a painful one and that's that we are non existent there. And I'm saying we as Israelis. You know, I had so many conversations about AI, about the startup ecosystem, about innovation, and Israel is not even in the same sentence, in the same paragraph. The only time it was in existence, it felt real, was when I mentioned Etoro on stage, you know, which was really important to me actually. But that was probably my biggest, and again, painful takeaway is that we think we're like this big hub of innovation, of investment. We are. Your numbers state that they show that. But in this region of the world, in the Gulf and particularly in Saudi Arabia, because I know we do have relations with other Gulf countries already, but in Saudi Arabia, which is the biggest economy of all the Gulf countries by far, by leaps and bounds, and where there is this massive transformation taken place, we're not in the picture and I think we are missing out big time on that.
Yonatan Adiri
I think we need to look at it in a bifocal way. So first, definitely we're missing out. We said also in the previous episode, you want to be there in ground zero when these things are being built, there are relationships, there is a dynamic to these meetings. You got to be there. I agree with you. We missed out on iteration number one. I would say though, and that's a question I'm kind of throwing back to you. How real is it? So for me, Israel can be not present there, but the real figures and the real intellectual property, patents, IPOs, real products that the world uses, that come from Israel, and they don't come from 1980 Israel, they come from Q1, 20, 25 Israel. Right. Are very strong, truthful presence. So whether or not it's discussed in Saudi, we're there and we're very, very strong and fundamental. I would even say indispensable in some parts of the tech ecosystem. So what's real? Right. Michael, I get the narrative, I get why it's important, why we want to be part of the dynamic, but how does it become real?
Michal Avram
Yeah, I mean, I think that you're right indirectly, because Israel is such an integral part of the broader tech ecosystem. So indirectly, sure, you're right. But there are so many direct ways that I think the two countries and it's crazy. It's like, you know, I was flying back and you're looking at the map and the airplane. It's like we're neighbors. It's right there, you know, like, I mean, Riyadh de Tel Aviv is probably, what, an hour flight or so? Something. Hour and a half.
Yonatan Adiri
Couple hours. Yeah, a couple hours.
Michal Avram
Okay. You know, crazy. Imagine what will happen when that opens up. So there are some direct ways that I think there could be really fruitful collaborations. Right now Saudi Arabia is in its very, very early stages of developing their own homegrown industries. When it comes to digitization, when it comes to AI, Absolutely. But that is absolutely the goal. You know, there are a lot of expats and jobs there now. One of the pillars of Vision 2030 is localization, which means that they Saudis to eventually take on these jobs, they want more and more of PIF's dollars to be reinvested into the country. Right. Not flow outwards. And so this is the stage where they're building really key partnerships to get them on a stronger footing towards that. They still don't have. I mean, yes, their universities have moved up in like world rankings and everything, but they've got a long, long way to go. A lot of Saudis go abroad to be educated, come back, think about what would happen if Saudi universities partnered with Israeli universities.
Yonatan Adiri
Yeah, no, no doubt. I think the case for normalization is very strong, as it was on September 26, 2023. Which kind of what drove part of the drivers for Ye Sinwar to do what he did. Right. So the case for normalization is very clear. The case for being there when it happens in the early at the onset. I totally agree. I sort of disagree in a way that the window in time to realize that while ideally should have been now or September 26th, I think is still open. Many thanks to the virtue of the reality of the Israeli tech industry.
Michal Avram
Yes, the Israeli tech industry is very strong. There's no, like, disagreement there. Right. That has been established. But the reality is that Saudi Arabia is moving forward very, very quickly, like crazy fast. Unbelievable. Just look at what they've done with women in the workplace, doubling their presence in the workforce in under 10 years. Not to get hung up on gender here, but it is an absolutely critical data point when you're looking at how willing they are to break their norms and to move forward. Because they realize there is no way we can move forward if we don't engage half of our population in the workforce. Right. So I'm giving that just as an example. They're moving forward really fast. They're crazy ambitious. It's not that I think that the window is closing tomorrow, but my question is, what incentive do they have now that the US has kind of taken it off the table as a carrot or a stick? Like, what's the path forward for Israel when it comes to normalization with Saudi Arabia? I don't see it. I really don't. And I think it's a big mistake.
Yonatan Adiri
It's a good question. I think the urgency on their part is for them to meet 2030 and then the following vision, call it 2040, is a quieter Middle east. And the Middle east, in which Israel is thorny and has neighbors that can do what hamas did on October 7th is a bad reality for Saudi Arabia. It's a destabilizing factor. I think the fog of war is still very, very intensive. And I think the next couple of months will determine that. For me, If I look at it strategically, the piece of the puzzle that decides where all of this is going is the end of the negotiation with Iran. I think Israel is waiting on, you know, how that ends. And is Iran going to end up with some kind of a nuclear instrument program and so on and so forth, or is this going to be finally an American agreement that, you know, kind of Libya style takes away the very idea that is a big cloud on Saudi, on us, on the region of a nuclear Iran. I think there are some other more complex issues that drive this. We've seen reports on whether or not Syria, through Turkish pressure with the US May make the first step towards normalization. So I think the next couple of months are going to be critical. I will end sort of my comments on that. When candidate Barack Obama came in the summer of 2008 to meet President Peres in Jerusalem. Very interesting set of conversations, one of which was the candidate Obama, sorry, asked President Peres if there's one thing we in Washington or myself as a future president should focus on to bring about change in the Middle east from Morocco to Pakistan, Greater Middle east, what is it? And there was silence in the room. And everybody expected Paris to kind of give the usual answer, you know, terror or whatever. And it prolonged for, like, 25 seconds. It was, like, a bit awkward. And then Paris uttered, the husbands. So candidate Obama was like, what do you mean, the husbands? And he's like, the husbands. If you really want to solve for the Middle east, you have to solve for the husbands. You have to solve for female equality, for full female gender equality. Because a society led by the husband is a society that would never meet science, that would never meet progress, and would never integrate into the future of the world. And I think what you're describing is a Middle east that is seen beyond, that is a Middle east that is as far as could be from a jungle. And the mindset shift in Israel needs to really escape this villain, the jungle idea that, oh, they're there, the husbands are still in control, they don't do tech, and, you know, we'll meet 100 years down the line. I totally agree with you. That is no longer the case. And your personal experience basically covers it, you know, end to end and total agreement on that.
Michal Avram
And President Obama later also said, you can judge a nation and how successful it will be based on how it treats its women and girls. So I agree 100%. And it is, you know, again, not to harp on it, by the way. They don't talk about dei. There's none of this, like, bs, you know, politicized crazy conversation. Whether you're for or against. Like, this is just an economic fact, right? That they have to engage women in the workforce to bring them to the workforce. So that was also really refreshing. Just last thing here, I think that the experience of being in Riyadh and listening and even leading some of these conversations that took place at this conference about innovation, about AI, about advancement, and knowing that, first of all, that I'm Israeli, second, that Israel is right there, right there. And that it's not a part of the conversation, that it almost feels like it doesn't exist, was incredibly jarring. And again, it's a missed opportunity. I think Israelis should. I understand fog of war. I understand there are other priorities right now. But as you said at the beginning, this is one of the reasons that October 7th took place, was to completely derail normalization with Saudi Arabia. And if not for economic reasons, which are just as important, I absolutely think that Israelis should care and should push the government to go back to the table.
Yonatan Adiri
I think, ultimately, I agree with you. Again, there's a compelling case. I think the next couple. I'm very optimistic. I think the next couple of months will determine very much what happens in the region. I would say I give a lot of weight to the bigger issues, which is nuclear, Iran, where is that going? And then cascading order, Turkey, Syria, cascading orders, Gaza, West Bank. And then when that aligns, it's going to be very clear how the Saudi dynamics sort of play out. That's at least the way I see things.
Michal Avram
Well, someday we'll record an episode from a Red Sea resort on the Saudi Arabian coast. Right.
Yonatan Adiri
Maybe all in. No problem. I'm all in. Yeah.
Michal Avram
Love it. Well, we began our show with the numbers of the week, and we are going to end with the words of the week. And this time, I wanted to focus on a few lines from a piece written by a Saudi journalist, Manal Al Barakati, whom the American news outlet Semaphore just hired as its local reporter, which is indicative of a lot. And the piece was titled Trump Is Awed By Riyadh's Transformation. So Are Saudis. It was written during the week that President Trump visited. And here is just a small little snippet of what she wrote. Trump marveled at the transformation he's witnessed in the eight years between his visits to Riyadh. What he's walking into isn't a rebranding. It's a country recalibrating in real time, learning what it means to keep up with its own ambitions. I thought that was really just indicative of how I saw it, too. Just, it's dizzying, you know, and they are keeping up with their own vision. Right. Their own ambition. I just want to say, for the record, this is not a perfect country by any stretch of the imagination. It is a dictatorship. There is repression that takes place there. It's got a long way to go when it comes to even just the role of women, despite all of the advances that they've made. But at the same token, what's the ideal that we're holding it to? I mean, I think in President Trump's speech that he gave in Riyadh and this kind of renewed approach to the Middle East. Right. I tend to agree with the ideal for every country is different and they've set their vision. And now I guess the question is, what part do we play in it? All right, that is it for today's show. Thank you for tuning in to ARC Media's what's yous Number? We hope you found it interesting. And if you did, be sure to, like, subscribe rate review. You know the drill, but most importantly, please share it with others who you think will find it interesting. If you want to make suggestions or share your feedback if you disagree with us, please reach out to us@whatsyournumberrcmedia.org.
Yonatan Adiri
What'S yous Number is produced by Ilan Benatar and is edited by Her Majesty Michael Levram. On the other side of the screen, sound and video editing by Martin Juergo. Our theme music, which a couple of people ask me every week over email, is by Midnight Generation. I'm Yonatan Adiri.
Michal Avram
I did meet a lot of royalty in Riyadh, but I sadly I'm not a princess or a Excellency or any of that. I'm just Michal Avram. See you back here next week.
Yonatan Adiri
Michal Evram. See you next week.
Michal Avram
This podcast offers general business and economic information and is not a comprehensive summary for investment decisions. It does not recommend or solicit any investment strategy or security.
Podcast Summary: "Saudi Arabia Part 2: Is the Window for Normalization Narrowing?"
What's Your Number? hosted by Yonatan Adiri and Michal Lev-Ram delves into the intricacies of the Israeli economy within a global context. In this episode, released on May 28, 2025, the hosts continue their exploration of Saudi-Israeli relations, discussing whether the opportunity for normalization between the two nations is diminishing.
The episode kicks off with the hosts sharing their respective "numbers" to highlight significant economic indicators.
Yonatan Adiri shares a remarkable figure: "$5.2 billion raised by Israeli tech companies in Q2 2025 thus far" (00:11). He emphasizes that this is a record-breaking quarter since Q2 2022, excluding major defense tech investments. Yonatan remarks, “to me, it’s absolutely incredible to see the ecosystem pushing forward, boldly going where no one has gone before. Definitely not in parallel to a war raging still in Gaza” (00:32).
Michal Avram presents "150 million," representing the number of tourists Saudi Arabia aims to attract annually by 2030, having already surpassed the 100 million target last year (00:40). She acknowledges the ambition behind this goal, noting it encompasses various types of travelers, including Muslim pilgrims and business tourists.
Yonatan counters by prioritizing the impressive capital raised by Israeli tech over Saudi’s tourism ambitions, stating, “I'm siding with my number this time” (01:16). Michal concurs but expresses hope for future convergence between Saudi ambitions and Israeli investments.
The hosts transition to discussing notable weekly developments affecting the Israeli economy.
Yonatan introduces the Windex, an index tracking the stock performance of 50 publicly traded Israeli companies on U.S. exchanges. He highlights:
Etoro's IPO: Celebrated as the first significant Israeli IPO in recent years, Etoro is set to join the Windex (04:57). Yonatan describes the reception as “widely received, big hug, big embrace from Wall Street,” lauding Yoni Asia’s leadership in navigating post-crypto dynamics.
Elbit Systems: Successfully raised over half a billion dollars, reinforcing its position as a leading non-government defense tech company (04:57).
Yonatan also reports a 2% decline in the Windex, mirroring broader market downturns with the S&P dropping 1.70% and Nasdaq 1% (04:57). Notable movements include:
Yonatan speculates on the AI-driven future of Israeli tech, questioning whether platforms like Wix.com will remain relevant amidst evolving technologies.
Michal brings attention to a significant U.S. bill passing the House, which includes controversial extensions of President Trump's 2017 tax cuts and Jobs Act. Key points discussed:
Economic Implications: Yonatan expresses concerns about potential prolonged inflationary pressures in the U.S., which could strain Israel's growth due to intertwined economies (08:23).
Military Aid Negotiations: Israel is approaching renegotiation of the next decade's military aid from the U.S., currently at $3.8 billion annually. Yonatan discusses two opposing viewpoints within Israel:
Self-Sufficiency Advocates: Suggest Israel should reduce dependence on U.S. aid, leveraging its $550 billion economy.
Supporters of Continued Aid: Highlight the importance of military aid for specific U.S. defense sectors and regional security (08:23).
AI Regulation Moratorium: Michal notes a 10-year moratorium on states regulating AI included in the bill, highlighting uncertainties around future AI governance (11:28).
Yonatan comments on the shift in U.S. chip export policies, suggesting energy concerns will soon overshadow data center issues (11:28).
Michal shifts focus to the European Union's potential impact on Israeli research funding. Key points include:
Association Agreement at Risk: The EU's association agreement allows Israel access to R&D funds similar to Horizon 2020. Recently, 17 out of 27 EU ministers voted to discuss potentially freezing this access (12:42).
Economic Consequences: Yonatan explains that Israel’s tech ecosystem, which heavily relies on EU grants, could face severe setbacks if access is restricted. He states, “This is not just about the money. This is about legitimizing the ability to work on basic research with Israel” (14:35).
Strategic Importance: Michal underscores the detrimental effects of possible decoupling from the EU research network, emphasizing the importance of integrated global ecosystems for Israeli innovation (16:28).
In this segment, Yonatan and Michal explore the state of Saudi-Israeli relations, assessing whether the opportunity for normalization is closing.
Michal shares insights from her recent visit to Riyadh, highlighting the nation's rapid transformation:
Cultural and Societal Shifts: Initially, Saudi Arabia appears conservative and religious. However, behind closed doors, significant changes are underway. At a Fortune conference for women business leaders, Michal witnessed profound optimism and ambition comparable to early Silicon Valley (02:00).
Women in the Workforce: Saudi Arabia has doubled the presence of women in the workforce within a decade, recognizing that societal progress hinges on female participation (23:07).
Innovation and Localization: Vision 2030 aims to localize industries, reducing reliance on foreign investments and fostering homegrown tech and AI sectors (22:05).
Michal expresses disappointment that Israel remains virtually invisible in the Saudi innovation conversation. She recounts leading discussions on AI and startups, only to find no acknowledgment of Israeli contributions, except for a mention of Etoro (20:43).
Yonatan provides a strategic perspective on normalization prospects:
Missed Opportunities: He agrees that Israel has missed initial chances to establish a presence in Saudi Arabia's burgeoning tech ecosystem (17:21).
Indispensable Role of Israeli Tech: Despite limited visibility, Israeli innovations—such as patents and IPOs—are integral to the global tech landscape. Yonatan questions how to translate this real-world significance into the Saudi context (21:41).
Regional Dynamics: The future of normalization is intertwined with broader Middle Eastern issues, including:
Iran Nuclear Negotiations: The outcome will heavily influence regional stability and Saudi-Israeli relations.
Syria and Turkey Relations: Potential normalization between Syria and Turkey could pave the way for Israeli-Saudi ties (28:38).
Yonatan emphasizes the need to move beyond outdated stereotypes, quoting former Prime Minister Peres discussing the importance of female equality for Middle Eastern progress (27:08).
Michal and Yonatan contemplate the incentives and timelines for normalization:
Saudi Ambitions: With ambitious goals set for 2030, Saudi Arabia is rapidly transforming. Michal highlights the urgency for Israel to engage now to capitalize on these developments before Saudi initiatives outpace potential Israeli partnerships (23:07).
Continuing Optimism: Despite the window potentially narrowing, Yonatan remains hopeful that ongoing geopolitical shifts will eventually facilitate normalization, contingent on resolving critical regional issues (28:38).
The hosts conclude with a poignant excerpt from a piece by Saudi journalist Manal Al Barakati, reflecting on Saudi Arabia's transformation:
"Trump marveled at the transformation he's witnessed in the eight years between his visits to Riyadh. What he's walking into isn't a rebranding. It's a country recalibrating in real time, learning what it means to keep up with its own ambitions." (29:06)
Michal reflects on this transformation, acknowledging ongoing challenges such as dictatorship and repression but underscores the significance of recognizing Saudi Arabia's ambitious evolution. She emphasizes the importance of aligning with Saudi vision despite imperfections, asserting that Israel must find its role within this dynamic landscape.
Yonatan and Michal wrap up the episode by reinforcing the critical intersection of Israeli economic resilience and regional geopolitical shifts. They advocate for proactive engagement and strategic partnerships to ensure Israel remains a pivotal player in the evolving Middle Eastern and global economic arenas.
Notable Quotes:
Yonatan Adiri (00:32): “It’s absolutely incredible to see the ecosystem pushing forward, boldly going where no one has gone before. Definitely not in parallel to a war raging still in Gaza.”
Michal Avram (02:35): “The energy, the Optimism, the development, this hunger, this ambition is like, it's infectious.”
Yonatan Adiri (08:23): “Israel can do with another billion, which is like 0.18% of its GDP, so to kind of self invest like China.”
Manal Al Barakati (29:06): “What he's walking into isn't a rebranding. It's a country recalibrating in real time, learning what it means to keep up with its own ambitions.”
Timestamps:
This summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and strategic analyses presented in the episode, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current state and future prospects of Israeli-Saudi relations within the broader economic and geopolitical landscape.