Podcast Summary: "Taking a State-Owned Defense Company Public – with Natti Ginor"

What's Your Number? – Ark Media
Hosts: Yonatan Adiri & Michal Lev-Ram
Date: January 28, 2026
Featured Guest: Natti Ginor, Managing Director & Head of Israel Investment Banking, Jefferies

Overview

This episode dives into the much-rumored potential IPO of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), one of Israel’s largest and most storied state-owned companies. Hosts Yonatan Adiri and Michal Lev-Ram sit down with Natti Ginor, a veteran investment banker with deep ties—both professional and personal—to IAI. Together, they explore the cultural, strategic, and economic implications of taking a government-owned defense giant public, contextualizing it within Israel’s broader transition from state-led to globally integrated tech economies.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Numbers and Israeli Financial Resilience

• Hosts’ Numbers:
  • Yael: “My number is 662 billion shekels. Yup, that's the 2026 state budget.” ([01:14])
  • Yonatan: “Mine is 68.6... Israel's debt to GDP figure is 68.6... considering the country spent nearly 350 billion shekels of otherwise unplanned expenditure on the war.” ([01:48])
• Context: Despite war-related spending, Israel’s economy demonstrates resilience, finishing with a better-than-expected debt-to-GDP ratio.

2. Market Recap and Tech Trends ([03:20–10:47])

• Windex Performance:

  • Israeli tech stocks (the “What's Your Number Index”) remain strong but are facing increased volatility amid global trends.
  • Standouts: Lemonade's stock up due to AI-driven insurance innovation; WIX’s restructuring with an “X engineer” AI-focused workforce.

• Notable moment: Lemonade’s bold move to offer a 50% premium reduction for Tesla FSD drivers leads to global buzz, amplified by Elon Musk’s tweet:
  “Insurance is half price when Tesla self-driving is activated because it increases safety so much.” ([Words of the week, 34:10/35:52])

3. Introducing the Guest: Natti Ginor of Jefferies ([10:47–12:25])

• Longtime supporter of Israeli companies accessing global capital.
• Described by hosts as having “steadfast” dedication to Israel’s innovation ecosystem.

4. Personal and Historical Roots of IAI ([13:13–14:20])

• Natti shares a family history deeply intertwined with IAI, with both his grandfather and father contributing to the company from the 1950s onward.
• Emotional resonance: “IAI… is viewed as one of the most formative companies in Israel’s history.” ([14:20])

5. IAI’s Role in Israeli Society & Economy ([14:20–15:27])

• IAI is not only a commercial venture but a symbol of national innovation and self-reliance, a major employer, and a generator of government revenue.
• “Today it’s by far one of the largest private companies in the country, valued at somewhere between $20 and $25 billion... $870 million of EBITDA in the trailing 12 months ending 2025.” ([14:46])

6. Why Take IAI Public? The IPO Conversation ([17:18–21:56])

• Capital Needs: Post-war Israel sees IPO as a significant potential source of capital—selling even 10–15% could raise $3 billion+.
• Complex Decision-making: Unlike private firms, IAI’s IPO will be influenced by the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Finance, and other state actors grappling with issues like security-sensitive disclosures and legal jurisdiction.
• Dual vs. Local Listing: The government may opt for an Israel-only IPO initially, considering legal comfort and national interest, then expand to global investors.
• Comparison to global defense IPOs, notably the recent $4bn IPO of CSG in the Netherlands: “Very similar size of company… traded up 30-40% on day one. That is the type of process I believe would be best for IAI…” ([19:52])

7. Strategic Roadmap: One Step at a Time ([21:11–23:07])

• The hosts put Natti “in the CEO seat” to pitch an optimal go-to-market strategy.
• Natti advocates for starting with an Israeli listing, building trust and performance, then possibly extending to global investors while addressing legal concerns: “Instead of 9 or 10 large shareholders, 25 or 30 world class shareholders.” ([22:41])

8. Cultural and Organizational Shifts ([23:07–25:27])

• IPO as a catalyst for transforming IAI from a staid government entity into a competitive, performance-oriented enterprise.
• Expected timeline for the process: “Longer than people expect… probably six months plus out.”
• Parallel IPO interest: Rafael, another state-owned defense giant, is six to twelve months behind IAI in its preparation.

9. Winners and Losers: Who Stands to Gain (or Not)? ([25:27–27:47])

• Winners:
  • State of Israel: access to capital and tax revenue.
  • Investors: both local and (eventually) global.
  • Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.
  • IAI itself: operational flexibility, top-tier leadership, M&A potential.
  • Natti: “I think the only losers are the competitors. I think it’s good for everyone.” ([26:41])
• Competitors:
  • Elbit Systems: Could be impacted by new benchmarks but likely benefits from the sector’s overall growth.

10. Global Dynamics & Competitive Environment ([27:47–31:14])

• Elbit currently enjoys premium valuation due to its strong European ties and current geopolitical realignment in Europe.
• Discussion of pricing power: high margins possible while demand and innovation are strong, but some margin compression may occur as competition intensifies.

11. The Case for Continued State Control ([31:14–32:06])

• “I think you have to maintain government ownership and control over these companies. They’re so fundamentally critical to national defense... having IAI and potentially Rafael remain within government control is advised in Israel, more so than probably anywhere else in the world.” ([31:23])
• Government likely to retain 85% ownership even after IPO.

Memorable Quotes and Notable Moments

• On IAI’s IPO debate:

  “This company is in a unique position... decisions are not being made by kind of traditional business people the way they are, let’s say, at a company like Elbit... They’re kind of wrestling with things like disclosure, things like potential exposure and liability.”
  — Natti Ginor ([17:42])

• On IAI’s symbolic status:

  “Israel dreamt of having an aviation industry when [it] had almost no cars. There were no cars on the roads... But there was a small, tiny group in Israel busy with imagining an 860 million EBITDA... globally bleeding edge industry.”
  — Yonatan Adiri ([15:27])

• On cultural changes required:

  “We’re going from being a government enterprise to a private enterprise. So you’re right in that that’s a lot more manageable when you start with people that... will give it a little bit of, quote, latitude as it kind of evolves.”
  — Natti Ginor ([23:45])

• On government control post-IPO:

  “Having IAI and potentially Rafael remain within government control is advised in Israel, more so than probably anywhere else in the world.”
  — Natti Ginor ([31:23])

• Elon Musk’s viral endorsement of Lemonade (Words of the Week):

  “Insurance is half price when Tesla self driving is activated because it increases safety so much.”
  — Elon Musk, via Twitter ([35:52])

• On European reforms and defense tech opportunity:

  “We have become the world’s champion of over regulation. Zero growth. Pay attention to Germany. I think it’s a founding president of this Republic. Markets love it. 18% DAX increase 2025 and defense and tech investors also.”
  — Yonatan Adiri ([36:37])

Important Segment Timestamps

• Financial Numbers & Economic Context: [01:14–02:23]
• Market Commentary: Windex & Tech Trends: [03:20–10:47]
• Guest Introduction – Natti Ginor: [10:47–12:25]
• History & Symbolism of IAI: [13:13–15:27]
• IPO Rationale & Challenges: [17:18–21:56]
• Listing Strategy & Globalization: [21:11–23:07]
• Cultural Change at IAI: [23:07–25:27]
• Winners & Losers: [25:27–27:47]
• Sectoral & Global Competition: [27:47–31:14]
• The Argument for State Control: [31:14–32:06]
• Wrap-up & Reflection: [32:32–34:10]
• Words of the Week: [35:52–37:28]

Podcast Tone & Language

The conversation blends analytical precision with insider candor and a sense of national pride—connecting big economic questions with personal stories and contemporary market realities. Natti Ginor’s familial connections to IAI lend gravity and warmth, while the hosts’ dynamic combines wit with thoughtful questioning.

Summary Takeaways

• The prospective IAI IPO is more than a financial event; it’s a cultural pivot point for Israel’s tech and defense sectors.
• Going public will require careful navigation of security, legal, and cultural hurdles, including labor relations, disclosure norms, and government oversight.
• Both local (Israeli) and, potentially, global investors see massive upside—if the IPO is timed and structured properly.
• IAI’s transition from a government-owned symbol to a public company illustrates wider trends in Israeli innovation: necessity-driven ingenuity meeting global capital markets.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode is essential for anyone interested in the intersection of defense technology, government policy, and global capital, with valuable insights into Israel’s evolving economic landscape, drawn from the lived experience of an industry insider. The conversation is candid, informative, and packed with storytelling that elevates it well above a standard financial debate.