Podcast Summary: "What's Your Number?"
Episode: The Emerging Economic Reality in Israel
Release Date: May 1, 2025

Hosted by Yonatan Adiri and Michal Avram, "What's Your Number?" is Ark Media’s weekly exploration of the Israeli economy through a global lens. In this inaugural episode, released on Israel’s Independence Day, the hosts delved into pressing economic issues amidst the backdrop of national challenges.

1. Opening Remarks and Current Events

Michal Avram opened the episode acknowledging unforeseen events that unfolded shortly before recording. She referenced significant wildfires near Jerusalem, emphasizing the resilience of Israelis in the face of adversity.

“But that's Israel. It seems like there's always something, and usually it's something difficult. Despite this, Israelis carry on, and we know that they will this time as well.”
— Michal Avram [00:00]

She also mentioned plans to discuss the economic impact of these wildfires in the following week, setting the stage for ongoing dialogue about Israel’s economic landscape.

2. The Number Game

The hosts engaged in their signature "What's Your Number?" segment, exchanging significant statistics that highlight key aspects of Israel's economy and infrastructure.

• Yonatan Adiri: “57,000 state-sponsored IVF treatments per year. That's the highest rate per capita in the world, fully paid for by Israel's universal healthcare system.”
  — Yonatan Adiri [01:12]

• Michal Avram: “33 is the price of flights in and out of Tel Aviv on Ryanair. This is the low-cost airline that's going to resume flights to the country in June.”
  — Michal Avram [01:24]

The segment underscored Israel’s strong support for family growth through healthcare and the burgeoning restoration of international air connections.

3. Introduction of Hosts and Podcast Structure

Michal Avram and Yonatan Adiri introduced themselves, outlining their professional backgrounds and the podcast’s focus on Israel’s economic developments.

“For those of you who are invested in or just simply interested in the Israeli economy, What's Your Number? is going to be your one-stop shop for the headlines, the deep dives and of course, the numbers.”
— Michal Avram [02:24]

They detailed the podcast format:

• Market Signals: Current economic indicators
• Big Shorts: Brief analysis of significant news items
• Long Play: In-depth exploration of a vital economic issue

4. Market Signals

The hosts reviewed key economic indicators, providing listeners with a snapshot of Israel’s current economic status.

• Exchange Rates:

  • Dollar to Shekel decreased from 3.69 to 3.62.
  • Euro to Shekel decreased from 4.29 to 4.12.

• NASDAQ Performance: Increased by 6.65% week-over-week.

• Windex Index:
  Yonatan introduced the Windex, an index tracking 50 Israeli-founded companies on U.S. exchanges.

  “The Windex rose 5.39% this past week, slightly underperforming the S&P and the NASDAQ with 7.15 and 6.65 rise respectively.”
  — Yonatan Adiri [05:49]

Notable Movers:

• Mobileye: Rose 27%, reflecting the dynamic nature of Israel’s autonomous vehicle sector.
• Nova: Increased by 12%, highlighting Israel’s role in semiconductor manufacturing and AI-driven technologies.

Michal noted the overall volatility in tech stocks, both Israeli and global, underscoring the sector's critical role in the economy.

5. Big Shorts

a. Checkpoint Earnings

The episode spotlighted Checkpoint’s first-quarter earnings under new CEO Nadav Tifra, indicating the company’s pivotal role in the Israeli cyber industry.

“Checkpoint is a major pillar of the Israeli ecosystem and the Israeli economy per se.”
— Yonatan Adiri [12:43]

Key Points:

• Revenue: $638 million, a 7% year-over-year increase.
• Significance: Checkpoint’s success under new leadership signals stability and growth in Israel’s cybersecurity sector.
• Industry Impact: The company has been foundational, inspiring other giants like Palo Alto Networks and Wiz.

b. Second International Airport in Israel

The discussion shifted to Israel’s long-awaited second international airport, potentially located in Nevatim.

“We have one big international airport. Just one. No growth there.”
— Yonatan Adiri [03:58]

Challenges Highlighted:

• Airspace Constraints: 60% used by the Air Force, limiting commercial expansion.
• Political Roadblocks: The decision has been highly politicized, with local opposition and political maneuvering delaying progress.
• Economic Implications: A new airport is crucial for increasing air traffic and supporting economic growth, especially as current flight offerings are limited.

c. Trump’s Upcoming Visit to the Gulf and Saudi-Israeli Normalization

The hosts examined former President Trump’s planned trip to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, discussing its potential impact on Israel’s economy and regional stability.

“Normalization, if it brings the IMEC, you know, like India, Saudi, the trade route, if it actually creates the dynamic of cross investments... the burden of defense may go down over the long arc of the next decade.”
— Yonatan Adiri [17:59]

Key Points:

• Economic Diversification: Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund and potential investments could significantly boost Israel’s economy.
• Regional Stability: Enhanced trade routes and economic partnerships could reduce defense spending and promote peace.
• Challenges: Ongoing conflict with Hamas and regional tensions complicate normalization efforts, highlighting societal divisions within Israel.

6. Long Play: The Emerging Economic Reality in Israel

In the deep dive segment, Michal Avram and Yonatan Adiri explored the multifaceted state of Israel’s economy amidst ongoing conflict and global dynamics.

a. Economic Growth and Projections

• Current Status:
  Israel's economy slowed to 1% growth in 2024 post-October 7.

• IMF Projections:

  • 2025: 3.2% growth
  • 2026: 3.6% growth
    “The International Monetary Fund recently said it projects Israel's economy will grow 3.2% this year, 3.6% next year.”
    — Michal Avram [24:43]

• Bank of Israel’s Forecasts:
  Slightly more optimistic at 3.5% and 4% respectively.

Yonatan expressed optimism despite global overestimations of geopolitical risks, citing managed economic indicators and resilience amid conflict.

b. Workforce Participation and Demographics

• Current Workforce:
  Approximately 4.5 million participate, with a 63% participation rate.

• Challenges:

  • Low participation among Arab women and ultra-Orthodox men.
  • Dependence on the high-tech sector, which employs only 10% of the workforce but contributes significantly to GDP and exports.

“We haven't grown since the country was born. We have one big international airport. Just one. No growth there.”
— Michal Avram [03:58]

• Solutions Discussed:
  • Encouraging workforce participation through policy reforms.
  • Private sector initiatives to employ underrepresented groups.
  • Enhancing education and STEM performance to support the tech industry.

c. Education and Technological Innovation

The potential rollout of AI tutors nationwide was highlighted as a transformative step for education, though challenges remain in effective implementation.

“Israel is going to be the first country to roll out a nationwide pilot for AI tutors for basically giving access to every student in the country.”
— Michal Avram [30:25]

**Yonatan noted the Ministry of Education's struggles with AI integration but remained hopeful about future advancements.

d. Reconstruction and Regional Development

The economic burden of ongoing conflicts and the costs of reconstruction in the south and north were discussed, emphasizing the need for effective leadership and political will.

“This is going to take a lot of political will, a lot of trust, and that's a commodity we don't have a lot of these days when it comes to the political dynamic.”
— Yonatan Adiri [31:30]

7. Conclusion and Future Outlook

Yonatan Adiri offered a grade for Israel’s economic standing, advocating for an "A" rating based on resilience and managed risks, provided that upcoming budgets incorporate necessary reforms.

“I definitely would put us in the A's. I think that the dynamic that put us in the BAA is... overestimating the remaining geopolitical risks.”
— Yonatan Adiri [34:05]

Michal Avram concluded by sharing a pertinent quote from IMF’s chief economist, reflecting the broader economic sentiments shaping Israel’s future.

“Throw out all of our forecasts.”
— Michal Avram [35:37]

This encapsulated the unpredictable nature of current global and regional landscapes affecting Israel’s economic projections.

8. Final Remarks

The hosts encouraged listeners to subscribe, review, and share the podcast, emphasizing their commitment to providing insightful economic analysis.

“We hope you found it interesting. And if you did, be sure to like, subscribe, rate, review. It all helps.”
— Michal Avram [37:03]

Yonatan Adiri and Michal Avram signed off, hinting at future discussions on economic developments and geopolitical dynamics.

Notable Quote:

“Throw out all of our forecasts.” — IMF’s Chief Economist Dr. Pierre Olivier Gurtinchas
— Highlighted by Michal Avram [35:37]

This quote underscores the volatility and uncertainty facing global economic projections, especially in tumultuous times.

This episode of "What's Your Number?" provides a comprehensive overview of the current economic challenges and opportunities in Israel, set against a backdrop of national resilience and regional complexities. The hosts effectively balance macroeconomic indicators with on-the-ground issues, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of Israel’s evolving economic reality.