Podcast Summary: "What's Next for Israeli IPOs?" with Oren Zeev

Podcast: What's Your Number? (Ark Media)
Episode Date: September 10, 2025
Hosts: Yonatan Adiri and Michal Lev-Ram
Key Guest: Oren Zeev, prominent solo venture capitalist

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the current state and future prospects of Israeli IPOs, offering listeners a detailed exploration of the evolving Israeli tech ecosystem, the growing trend of "solo VCs," geopolitical and macroeconomic context, and how all these factors converge to influence Israeli and global markets. Anchored by an extended interview with renowned investor Oren Zeev, the episode unpacks market data, strategic shifts in global alliances, and what’s next for Israeli tech exits.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Weekly Numbers: Resilience & Regional Partnerships

• [00:10] Yonatan's number: 2,000 — more children now registered in Gaza border schools than pre-October 2023, illustrating societal resilience.
  • "The rebound, the resilience that this number represents and it is a real number." — Yonatan
• [00:34] Michal's number: $400 million — Egypt's investment in a gas pipeline with Israel, plus a larger $35b gas deal in discussion.
  • "Another sign that things are...moving forward with plans for Israel to supply Egypt with natural gas." — Michal

2. Windex & Israeli Market Dynamics

• [02:37] Fourth consecutive week of Windex gains (+1.6%), bolstered by digital and cyber leaders such as eToro, Oddity Global, Wix, and CyberArk.
• Some notable declines: Varonis (–5%) post-acquisition; Israel Chemicals (–5.59%).
• Macroeconomic uncertainty around US Federal Reserve rate cuts and Israeli Finance Ministry policy tensions.
  • "If you lower taxes without an adjustment of the interest, we're going to see higher inflation. That doesn't fix anything." — Yonatan ([04:04])

3. Government, Society & Economic Resilience Post-October 7

• Damning report on Israeli government's crisis response: gaps in evacuation, support to reservists, and business continuity.
  • Civil society’s rapid self-organization filled many voids the public sector left open.
  • "We kind of acquiesced with the fact that we're paying high taxes and we're paying high private, you know, sort of high cost of living. That should not be the case." — Yonatan ([05:38])

4. India–Israel Strategic Alliance

• New bilateral agreement—details still emerging—seen as a pivotal move toward long-term, non-Western alliances.
• "The 'villa in the jungle' is dead... The new concept must be what we call an alliance from India to Ethiopia." — Yonatan ([09:00])
• India's rise as a central geopolitical and economic partner for Israel, with personal and historical anecdotes underscoring the connection.

Featured Interview: Oren Zeev on the State and Future of Israeli IPOs

Oren Zeev’s Evolution as a “Solo VC”

• [14:22] Oren’s journey: From developer to one of Israel's original VCs, moving to the US, achieving early financial independence (2006), then re-entering as a one-man investment engine.
  • "I started investing and I started in my own money because I liked the actual investing interaction with founders...I led [every deal], was on the board, was an active player, not a passive player." — Oren Zeev ([14:37])
• Transitioned from “angel” (but not in the usual sense) to full-scale institutional VC with major backing, including a pivotal conversation with Peter Thiel.
  • "He asked me, why don't you let me be your LP and use it as an experiment...so that was my first fund." — Oren ([16:00])
• Unique operational model: No partners, no staff, no office—just a laptop in a Palo Alto coffee shop.
  • "There's nothing like it in the world at this scale...it's working, and it continues to work now for 17 years." — Oren ([17:50])
• Competitive advantages: Speed, hands-on interaction, minimal bureaucracy.
  • "Speed is a competitive advantage. I move just faster...It really impresses the entrepreneurs." — Oren ([18:43])

Israeli Founder Focus

• 80% of portfolio companies have Israeli founders—driven by network, not explicit thesis.
  • "It's a great pool of founders... large enough to matter, small enough to be intimate." — Oren ([23:08])

The Israeli IPO Comeback

• [24:22] 2025 marked as “the year of comeback” for IPOs: Already 44 completed, projected over 60 (most since 2021).
  • "I think the market is receptive to IPOs for good companies...it’s not like 2021 when anyone could go public." — Oren ([24:22])
• M&A remains strong: Example of Wiz, CyberArk, and Next Insurance among significant deals.
  • "M&A is a legitimate way to strategically build scale...I expect Israeli companies to be also more and more on the acquiring side." — Oren ([25:23])

AI, Globalization, and Shifting Barriers

• AI is leveling geographic playing fields—companies can be built and scaled from anywhere.
• Oren’s personal data: pre-Covid, 90% of portfolio HQ’d in Bay Area; post-Covid, it's inverted.
  • "Prior to Covid, probably 90% of [my investments] were headquartered in the Bay Area. Post Covid, probably 80-90% are not—full inversion." — Oren ([29:13])
• AI/remote work as “the biggest technological shift probably in the history of the world...opportunity for value creation.”
  • Israel is better positioned than Europe or other hubs, “only second maybe to Silicon Valley.”

Venture Risk, Defense Tech, and Brain Drain

• Market winners matter more than perfect diligence: "The product of the VC is great returns, not great diligence...it's far greater mistake to be afraid all the time." — Oren ([21:17])
• Defense tech is not crowding out other sectors; "not a zero-sum game."
• Brain drain concerns overblown: Israeli diaspora is key advantage, though long-term societal health must be preserved for sustained success.
  • "If there was no brain drain and everyone was in Israel, high tech would be in far greater trouble...Some percentage is healthy." — Oren ([35:18])

Other Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Efficiency and Grit in the Israeli System:
  "Once you have the right person in place and the kind of institutional backing, the government operates with such great efficiency...so, I'm hopeful..." — Yonatan ([07:29])

• Civilian Society Stepping Up:
  "One of my favorite expressions is im enanili mili: If I'm not for myself, who is?" — Michal ([07:44])

• On AI-Powered Company Building:
  "AI has made things so you can basically have employees who are AI agents. If you can do that, you could build companies with very few people." — Oren ([27:08])

• Long-Term Tech Optimism for Israel:
  "The next few years are going to be a golden era for venture because AI is the biggest technological shift...Israel is extremely well positioned." — Oren ([30:43])

• Geopolitics and Tech:
  "The world is genuinely going back into like a division of almost bipolar, only this time China is leading..." — Yonatan ([38:03])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:10–01:26 – Numbers of the week: Gaza schoolchildren & Egypt-Israel gas deal
• 02:12–03:46 – Windex update and macro financial trends
• 04:47–08:18 – Civil society response post-Oct 7 and government infrastructure
• 09:00–12:57 – India–Israel strategic realignment
• 14:04–23:08 – Oren Zeev’s VC origin story and solo investment model
• 24:22–26:20 – 2025 IPO market recovery and M&A trends
• 27:08–31:38 – Impact of AI, remote work, and geographic dispersion
• 31:38–36:47 – Risks to tech ecosystem: defense focus, brain drain, and global competition
• 38:03–39:27 – Reflecting on Xi Jinping’s speech and global realignment

Tone & Style

The conversation is quick, incisive, and filled with anecdotes, humor, and real-time analysis. Hosts Yonatan and Michal balance optimism with realism, keep the language energetic, and encourage sharp, honest commentary from Oren Zeev.

This summary captures the essential themes, insights, and conversations from the episode, providing a useful reference for listeners interested in Israeli tech, venture trends, and the larger geopolitical-economic context shaping the market in 2025.