Who’s winning the economic war? - What's Your Number?

Podcast Summary: "Who’s winning the economic war?"

Podcast: What’s Your Number?
Hosts: Yonatan Adiri and Yael Wissner-Levy
Date: March 18, 2026
Produced by: Ark Media

Overview of the Episode

This episode of "What’s Your Number?" delves into the ongoing economic implications of the Israel-Iran war, focusing on the costs, strategies, and global ripple effects. Hosts Yonatan Adiri and Yael Wissner-Levy assess real-time market and geopolitical developments, dissect key numbers of the week, analyze Israel’s economic resilience, and explore how the current conflict affects global markets, supply chains, and high-tech sectors. They also discuss the evolving interface between Israeli tech entrepreneurs and traditional media, and address widespread psychological warfare and information battles in the age of social media.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Numbers of the Week: Direct Costs and Oil Flows

Israel’s War Expenditure
- 1.5 billion shekels per day: Current direct daily military cost for Israel due to the conflict with Iran.
  - "That's the estimated direct military cost... before you even start counting the civilian side of the ledger." (B, 00:10)
- Defense budget escalation from 112B to an anticipated 177B shekels if the campaign continues, especially with expansion on the northern front.
Oil Dynamics and the Saudi Workaround
- 5 million barrels: Saudi Arabia's new daily oil export capacity via its east-west pipeline, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian missiles.
  - "My number is 5. That's 5 million barrels of oil... from the Gulf all the way to Yanbu in the Red Sea, far away beyond the axis of Iranian missiles." (A, 01:13)
- Result: Oil prices dip below $100/barrel, helping stabilize the global economic situation for now.

2. Israeli Macro Outlook and Economic Resilience

Debt and Deficit Dynamics
- Israel's debt-to-GDP is at 68%, manageable for up to 6 weeks of current expenditures.
  - "We can sustain a month or even six weeks... without significant macro implications." (A, 01:59)
- Deficit projection raised from 4.4% to 5.1%, but markets are pricing nearer 5.8-6%, signaling some skepticism (07:30-08:47).
- Market confidence persists despite increased war spending, with the shekel remaining robust and the Israeli stock exchange holding steady.
Narratives in Economic Forecasting
- Both optimistic and pessimistic macro scenarios are plausible; the dominant narrative in markets and among policymakers will heavily influence outcomes.
  - "It's mostly a battle of narratives just as much as it is of numbers." (B, 08:47)

3. Windex & Key Sectors Performance

Israeli-Founded Public Companies ("Windex")
- Down 2% this week, underperforming global indices.
- Cybersecurity firms (Palo Alto, Sentinel 1, Veronis) regarded as defensive and relatively resilient.
  - "It almost looks like the cyber feels like a defensive sector of Israeli tech right now." (B, 04:58)
- Notable falls: Elbit down nearly 7% (correction after a sustained rally), Fiverr down 7.68%, Via down 12%.

4. Israeli Tech Founders Entering Traditional Media

Acquisition of Reshet 13
- Major tech founders, led by Assaf Rapaport (Wiz), bid to buy commercial TV channel Reshet 13 for $100M.
  - "A group of Israel's most prominent tech entrepreneurs...is attempting to buy Reshet 13." (B, 10:14)
- Comparison to US example of Bezos and The Washington Post.
- Potential “Americanization” of the Israeli media landscape, mirroring US cable “ecosystem”—questions about political motivations and long-term financial sustainability.

5. Iran’s Economic Warfare and the Global Ripple Effect

Assessment of Iran's Economic Moves
- Iran's multifaceted attempts (oil, natural gas, chokes in supply chains), but as of now, "failing on all four and a half barring Hormuz." (A, 14:50)
  - US/Saudi responses have largely blunted Iranian attempts at economic disruption.
  - Oil below $100 signals Iran losing the economic battle.
Natural Gas and Tech/Supply Chain Impact
- Qatar, the world’s #2 producer, paused operations—potential risk to global chip/data center manufacturing (notably Taiwan, Korea) if supply shocks extend beyond 3-4 weeks.
  - "If they have no chips to buy, they're not going to be able to produce those data centers. And that's going to have an effect on the American growth story if it does indeed continue." (A, 18:49)
- Fertilizer supply relies on natural gas from Qatar; possible food production pressures two to three months out.
Global Response and Regional Calculus
- Europe relatively insulated but wary of secondary effects and Russian energy entanglement.
- Financial centers like Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai considered potential pressure points if the conflict endures.
- "I think MBZ is just proving to be the most remarkable Arab Leader of our century, bar none." (A, 25:11)

6. Timeline for Escalation and Resolution

Window for current economic resilience: next 3-4 weeks, up to two months if market and supply disruptions remain contained.
- Major global political events—like Trump-Xi summit—seen as soft ceilings for escalation.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

On Israel’s Sustained Military Spending
"1.5 billion a day is just the visible cost, right? ...But the indirect costs are pretty hard to measure, and they're probably not that visible just yet." (B, 00:48)
On Saudi Oil Pipeline
"They managed to expand it. And so this is one of the reasons why oil...is back below $100. Very significant for the continuation of the war." (A, 01:13)
On Market Narrative
"Both the short term market moves reflect the uncertainty and then the long term...there's a lot of optimists that say the economy is going to bounce back and opportunities will actually expand. I would say that the question isn't just what the deficit is, it's really kind of what the story of the market is going to believe." (B, 08:47)
On Tech vs. Traditional Media
"The battle for the Israeli MSNBC is on. Seems like it has been decided...I don't like the idea that philanthropist groups own a TV channel. I think if it is a commercial TV, let it be a commercial TV." (A, 12:55)
On Iran’s Calculated Losses
"As of now, when it comes to the economic piece again for oil, looks like Iran is losing this one." (A, 17:23)
On Middle Eastern Leadership
"I think MBZ is just proving to be the most remarkable Arab Leader of our century, bar none." (A, 25:11)
On Global Food Security
"Fritz Haber won the Nobel Prize for ammonium...He sold the patent to IG Farben...It is this gas that he invented that killed his family in Auschwitz...That is still the case. Humanity is still dependent on ammonia, which is produced in Qatar." (A, 22:50)
On Psychological Warfare & Disinformation
"The prime minister stopped everything he was doing to go take this video and how much effort is being put to combat it. It shows really kind of sign of times of how war is being waged. Psychological warfare has been around forever, but now this time, the way it's combated and kind of dealt with was super interesting to me." (B, 31:49)
- Notable moment: Prime Minister Netanyahu responds humorously to rumors of his death with a video, “I’m crazy about coffee. And you know what? I’m crazy about my people.” (30:23)
On US Leadership
"I have to do what's right. Political impact, sure, everybody has concern, but I have to do what's right. I can't say, gee, I don't want impacts on oil prices for three to four weeks or two months and let Iran have nuclear weapon and let them blow up the Middle east and beyond." (A, 33:58, paraphrasing President Trump)

Timestamps for Important Segments

Numbers of the Week – [00:10-02:34]
Windex & Israeli Tech Sector – [04:21-07:03]
Budget and Deficit Scenario – [07:30-08:47]
Tech Enters Israeli Media – [10:13-14:19]
Long Play: Iran’s Economic Warfare – [14:32-29:46]
- Oil, Hormuz, and Saudi pipeline – [14:50-18:33]
- Gas and semiconductor implications – [18:49-21:31]
- Fertilizer supply chain vulnerability – [22:37-24:31]
- European response and US-China ceiling – [26:05-29:59]
Words of the Week / Information Warfare – [29:59-34:14]

Summary Table: Key Economic Fronts

| Factor | Status/Impact | Details/Commentary | |------------------------|---------------------|----------------------------------------------------| | Israeli military costs | Manageable (short-term) | Market robust, but deficit creep noted | | Oil markets | Stabilized (<$100) | Saudi rerouting, strategic reserves released | | Natural gas | Tense, manageable | Qatar pause critical for semiconductors/fertilizer | | Israeli tech | Defensive, wobbly | Cyber strong; SaaS, transport, under pressure | | Regional finance hubs | Stable, pressured | Watching Doha/Abu Dhabi/Dubai for stress signals | | European economy | Resilient so far | Concerned about Russia and gas, but not panicking | | Psychological warfare | Escalating | PM Netanyahu responds directly to viral rumors |

Conclusions / Forward Look

Short-Term Stability, Medium-Term Uncertainty: Israel and global markets are weathering the current economic “war” with resilience, especially thanks to oil market stabilization—however, this depends on the containment of new hostilities and continued successful workarounds for critical supply chains.
Watch Points: Next 3-4 weeks are crucial, particularly for natural gas and downstream effects on technology and food production. Also, continued psychological and disinformation campaigns can influence political and economic stability.

For listeners:
This episode offers a fast-paced but sharp analysis of Israel’s and the region’s economic predicament as conflict rages. The focus on both macro numbers and market sentiment, along with insights into new alliances and sectoral reshufflings, makes it essential for anyone wanting to track the intersection of security, economics, and technology in today’s Middle East.