Unknown Host (10:28)
All right. The two most common questions out there and two of the biggest dilemmas and two things that really don't have a right answer is first the payoff debt or invest question. Until you are completely debt free, you're going to have this question of whether you should pay off your debt or invest. Alright, we're not going to talk about that one today. The other one is should you make Roth contributions or tax deferred traditional contributions or do a Roth conversion? Right. Because it's really the same question. If you're making Roth contributions, Roth conversions are probably appropriate. And if doing a Roth conversion isn't the right thing to do, you probably should be making tax deferred contributions. Well, let's spend a few minutes talking about this. I've spent a great deal of time talking about this over the years writing about this. Over the years we've had Chris Davin on the podcast. We've got way out into the weeds on this concept. I published a blog post not long ago. I think it went out March 7th. I called it should you do a Roth contribution or conversion? And it encapsulates my thinking on this subject and how it's evolved over the last 15 or 20 years. Highly recommend it. If you're willing to read blog posts, I highly recommend you go read that one. But I'm going to talk about a lot of what's in that post here on the podcast. There are some financial concepts that are simple and people make them complicated by not following the directions well. Right. This is like the backdoor Roth ira. It's not that complicated. But people can screw it up in dozens of different ways. But other things are just common dilemmas, right? That's the payoff debt versus invest question. That is the Roth contribution versus traditional contribution question. That is the should I do a Roth conversion question. And people ask me these questions. This speak pipe question is a good example. They ask it to me as if I can just say, oh yeah, Ross, the right answer. Even though I know very little, all I know about your financial situation, hopes and dreams is what you could record in a 90 second speak pipe. That simply is not enough information to answer the question. Even if I had all of your numbers, all of your attributes, all of your attitudes, I might not be able to answer this question accurately. That's because the question often doesn't have an answer that's knowable. It relies on things that we won't know for decades. It's also a really complicated question. The classic line from Einstein is don't make, you know, make things as simple as possible, but no simpler. And people do that all the time with this Roth question. Right? Down in California, I was speaking earlier this year, I was talking to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons and we get to the Q and A period at the end of the talk, and a financial advisor somehow has come to the talk and pipes up with a comment, not even a question really saying, I don't think you're right. I think everybody should make Ross contributions all the time. Well, that's obviously nonsense, right? That's just making things simpler than they really are. Same problem with calculators out there, right? If your assumptions don't match those of the calculator, its calculations are worthless to you. It's a classic garbage in, garbage out problem. So what I want to do is give you some clarity on this without being too dogmatic about it, okay? I want you to have clarity and realize that it's only truly clear cut in a minority of cases. Most of the time, it's not that clear which thing you should do. That's not a bad thing, though. The good news is that you're not choosing between good and bad. A traditional contribution to your 401 is not a bad thing and a Roth contribution is not a good thing. Right. One of them is a little bit better for you, but the other one is also a very good thing. Right? So you're choosing between good and better, not bad and good, not right and wrong. So even if you make the wrong decision, any money that goes into your retirement accounts is usually a Pretty good thing for most people and their heirs. So this is complicated. You got to recognize that upfront. You also need to recognize that the contribution question is exactly the same as the conversion question. If you should be making contributions, you should be doing conversions and vice versa. Okay. There are some no brainers out there though. It's not always a big dilemma. You know, it can be a no brainer. When I was in the military, all we had were tax deferred contributions. I couldn't make a Roth contribution to the Thrift Savings Plan, so it was a no brainer. Of course I did the tax deferred contributions. Other times include the backdoor Roth IRA process. Right. It's not like you as a high earner can contribute to a traditional IRA and deduct that that's not an option. Your choices are invested in a taxable account, invested in a non deductible traditional IRA or put it in a Roth ira. Well, that's a no brainer. The Roth IRA wins in pretty much every situation when those are your choices. Same thing with the mega backdoor Roth IRA process. Right? You're way better off having that money in the Roth sub account than you are in the after tax sub account where the earnings will be taxable at your ordinary income tax rates. Much better in the Roth account. It's a no brainer. If you're sitting there in med school, you got a bunch of tax deferred accounts from your prior career and you can convert them at 0%. That's a no brainer. Do the Roth conversions during med school. Right. There's probably a few other no brainers out there and sometimes the answer to this question is all obvious, but other times it's not so obvious. So the rule of thumb I've used for years, which has so many holes in it you can about drive a truck through them, is if you're in your peak earnings years, make tax deferred contributions and in anything other than your peak earnings years, make Roth contributions. That's a rule of thumb. It's got lots of exceptions. Maybe there's so many exceptions it's not even useful as a rule of thumb. But I, I still mention it and I think it has some use. Classically, somebody like a resident or a fellow is not in their peak earnings years. Right? And so that rule would say, hey, you know, make Roth contributions because you're going to be in higher tax brackets throughout your career and probably even in retirement. But that's where exceptions start coming in. Right? You might be trying to play Games with your student loans, you might be trying to get lower income driven repayment payments. You might be trying to get a higher subsidy on those payments. If there's a program in place like save, which sounds like it's kind of gone now, you might be trying to get more forgiven via public service loan forgiveness. And making tax deferred contributions during residency might help that. So now you're weighing the additional taxes you'll pay later versus getting more public service loan forgiveness. Okay, so that's a common exception to that rule. Another one is when people are expecting a whole bunch of taxable income during retirement. This is people that have pensions. These are people that have paid off all the rental properties and their properties are now fully depreciated. So all that rental income is now filling up the lower brackets. Those sorts of situations are the folks where maybe it makes sense to use Roth accounts preferentially even during peak earnings years. The classic example is a super saver. Somebody who's just putting so much money away, they're going to be in a higher bracket in retirement than they are during their career. Now that's not most doctors by any means, but there are some of you out there in white coat investor land that are saving so much money, you probably will be in that situation. So be careful with the rules of thumb, be careful with the calculators. They're garbage in, garbage out. You gotta realize there's some exceptions there. Now the thing to concentrate your time on, to concentrate your effort on, is to ask yourself this question. When you're trying to decide whether to make Roth contributions or tax deferred contributions, or whether to do a Roth conversion. This is the question to ask yourself. Who is going to spend this money and what will their tax bracket be when they pull it out of that account? The who part is important, right? Because it might not be you. It might be your spouse after your death, it might be your heir. It might be a charity that you leave the money to. Very important, right? You don't want to do a bunch of Roth conversions and leave the money to charity, right? Because charities don't pay taxes anyway, so you're better off leaving them a tax deferred account. You can leave them way more money instead of giving the government a whole bunch of money and giving the charity less money. So same thing if you're leaving it to an heir in a lower tax bracket, right? Better for them to pay the taxes at their lower rate. There's going to be more money for them overall, if that is what is done on the other hand, if you're going to be spending it yourself and you're a super saver, and you're like, oh, I'm in the 22% bracket now, but I'm probably going to be in the 35% bracket later, well, it would make sense for you to do a Roth contribution or a Roth conversion. So pay attention to what tax brackets are likely to be. And we're talking big rules, not a couple of changes. Not going from 37% to 35%. We're talking about going from 35% to 22%. That's a big change, right? That's what you're trying to figure out. And a lot of times it's a guess, right? You don't know how well your investments are going to do. You don't know how well what the tax laws are going to be then. You don't know how long you and your spouse are going to live. There's a whole bunch of factors that go into this that are totally unknowable, but you don't want to pay attention to stupid things out there. People say, like pay taxes on the seed, not the harvest, right? They're saying, you know, basically do Roth all the time. Put $10,000 into a retirement account. Maybe you pay $3,000 on taxes now, but if you pull that money out in 30 years from a tax deferred account, you might owe $30,000 in taxes, and that's more than $3,000. So you should do the Roth conversion. That's a stupid argument, right? That's not the way it works. It's all about the tax rates, not the amount of money paid in taxes. Right? Because if that $10,000 grows to $100,000, then you pay 30% of it in taxes. It's all the same whether you paid the taxes upfront or whether you paid the taxes later. If your tax rate does not change, it's all the same which account you're in. Okay? So I hope that's helpful to understand that big factor, because it dwarfs everything else that we're going to talk about. Another approach you can take is what one of my partners has done for his whole career. He's like, I could never figure out what I was supposed to do, whether it's supposed to be tax deferred or Roth. So he literally just split every contribution he made. Half of them went into the tax deferred account, half of them went into the Roth account. And he's like, I'm wrong with half of it, but I Don't know which half. And the beautiful thing about that is you avoid a lot of regret because you did the right thing with half your money and you didn't have to spend a whole bunch of time trying to figure out what the right thing was to do. Same thing with Roth conversions, right? You could do a small Roth conversion every year between retirement and when you take Social Security, maybe the amount up to your current or the next tax bracket and just do some conversions rather than doing a big huge seven figure conversion. And I think there's a lot of wisdom there actually, given how unknowable the answer to this question is for so many of us. That's not a crazy thing to do, just split it. The other concept you really need to understand when you're doing this is that you fill the tax brackets in retirement, right? If you have no other taxable income in retirement, no Social Security, no pensions, no real estate income, no taxable account, et cetera, your only source of taxable income is withdrawals from a tax deferred account. Well, the first certain amount of money that comes out of there, about 30 grand if you're married, is the standard deduction. That's taxed at 0%. If you save 35% when you put that money in and you're now getting that $30,000 taxed at 0%, that's a huge win. The 10% bracket is another $24,000. The 12% bracket is another $73,000. Right. And so you can take a whole bunch of money out at pretty low tax brackets. You get to fill those as you go along. So if you're worried about $100,000 RMDs, what percentage tax rate do you think that $100,000 RMD is even going to be taxed at? Not that high at all. And so that's an argument to use tax deferred accounts during your peak earnings years because you get to save money at 32 or 35 or 37% or, you know, you add on your state tax bracket there, it might be 45% and then take it out later at 0, 10, 12, 22%. It's just way better. But if you're filling up those brackets with other taxable income, you got tons of real estate income or pensions or whatever. Well, that would argue that you do more Roth contributions. If you're in the military and you're going to get a pension from the military, well, that might fill up the bottom three or four brackets, in which case, well, that Roth makes a lot bigger Difference. Another factor that people don't think about is you and your spouse are probably not dying at the same time. And if you die within a year of each other, no big deal, financially speaking. But if one of you becomes a widow or a widower for 18 years at the end of their life, they might wish they had a little bit more money in a Roth account. And the reason why is after your spouse goes, you go to the single tax brackets, and they're not nearly as generous as the married filing jointly tax brackets. So you have to be a little bit careful about that. If your spouse is much younger than you or in much worse health than you, you know, these are factors that might make you go a little bit more toward doing Roth contributions. Okay? Changing states is another factor. If you're spending your career working in New York, but you're going to move to Florida for retirement, or you're spending your career in California, but you're moving to Nevada for your retirement, well, there's that state tax difference too, right? State taxes are pretty high in New York and California. There's zero in Florida and Nevada. So that would argue for tax deferred contributions now. Or if you're doing the opposite, Right. If you're working in Nevada, but you're planning to retire in California, well, maybe Roth is a smarter way to go because of that. A lot of people worry about where you're going to pay the taxes from when doing those Roth conversions. And yes, it's better if you can pay the taxes from your taxable account or some other source of income than. And if you got to use the money in the tax deferred account to pay the taxes. But the truth is, if the conversion makes sense when paid for with money outside the account, it probably still makes sense when paid for with money from in the account. Another factor is your behavior as an investor. Right? A lot of us are going to max out our 401, $23,500 this year, whether it goes in the Roth account or whether it goes in the traditional account or. Well, obviously, if you're putting in the Roth account, that's more money you're saving for retirement, at least on an after tax basis. So if you need to fool yourself into saving more, putting it in a Roth account is one way to do that. But if you can continue to save and invest the difference what you saved on taxes by doing that tax deferred account or that tax deferred contribution, well, you can make up for that because you can get more money on an after tax basis when into a retirement account. That also gives you a little more asset protection in most states than if you're just investing in a taxable account. So you get a little more asset protection oftentimes by making Roth contributions. If you're one of those people that's so wealthy you don't even want to spend your required minimum distributions and you're bummed you have to take them and reinvest them in your taxable account, well, that would make you lean a little bit more toward making Roth contributions. Frankly, most people ought to spend their RMDs or give them away, but that's something a lot of people worry about. The solution to an RMD problem, by the way, if you actually do have an RMD problem, is not to skip contributions to your tax deferred accounts or to pull the money out early. The solution is to do Roth contributions and conversions. I mentioned about the student loan games, right? If you're trying to keep your adjusted gross income down to try to get more public service loan forgiveness, then you want to lean toward tax deferred accounts. Healthcare costs are one of those things that can make a big difference. You know, you may have heard of irmaa, or you may have heard of the ACA subsidy before age 65, right? IRMAA is a Medicare thing after age 65. But for both of those things, you get more benefits from the government if you have a lower taxable income. So that would argue for trying to have a little bit more money in Roth accounts so you can spend the Roth money, not have to spend tax deferred money and raise your income there. Now, obviously if you're at that point where you're using an ACA plan, you probably want to be contributing to a tax deferred account to keep your income as low as you can. But later on you'll be glad to have Roth accounts so you can spend without having higher taxable income. Military docs in general are going to want to use Roth accounts and the reason why is they often qualify for a pension which fills up those lower brackets. But they're also generally in a tax free state and they generally get quite a bit of tax free income. Their basic allowance for subsistence or basic allowance for housing. Any money you get paid while you're deployed, right? That all lowers your tax rate. And so it makes a lot more sense for military docs to be making Roth contributions almost all of the time. I mentioned the super saver factor, right? If you're just saving a ton of money so much that you're going to have more taxable income in retirement than you do during your career. You ought to be doing Roth contributions. If tax brackets go up dramatically. This is a big fear you have that the highest tax bracket is going to go from 37% to 70%. Well, you ought to be making Roth contributions. If it only goes up to 40%, that probably doesn't make a big enough change that it would otherwise change what you were going to do. Another thing people worry about if they have an estate tax problem is that you will have less money in the estate if it's Roth money than if it's tax deferred money. So you might be able to stay under that estate tax limit and be able to pass money to your heirs without paying 40% on it in estate taxes. But the truth is there's a tax break known as income with respect to a decedent. And as long as your heirs know about this, it'll equalize for that effect. But if yours don't know about that, that would cause you to make more Roth contributions preferentially. If you have nothing in Roth now, well, maybe you lean a little more toward making Roth contributions. If you have nothing in tax deferred, maybe you lean a little more toward making tax deferred contributions. Your current mix of accounts should come into play a little bit in this calculation. Phase outs are likewise important, right? It's not just about the tax brackets. You might be phased out of some important deduction. And so you really do have to calculate your marginal tax rate using tax software, not just looking at the tax brackets. College aid can be affected by this decision, right? Money that's in retirement accounts doesn't count on the fafsa. But if you got money that, if you can keep your income lower by making tax deferred contributions, well, that might allow your kid to qualify for some student aid. The truth is, most white coat investors, kids are not going to qualify for any student aid. But maybe if you're working part time or on sabbatical or you've retired or something while they're in college, this could be an issue for you. You see how complicated that is? It's super complicated. So quit beating yourself up. If you don't get it exactly right, you might be surprised. I thought I got it wrong by making all those tax deferred contributions in like the 15% bracket when I was in the military. And now I've realized that all that money's probably going to charity. And so it turns out it was the right thing to do, even though I was only in the 15% bracket and I didn't convert it the year I got out of the military. But I don't beat myself up about that anymore because it ended up working out just fine. So don't beat yourself up on this if you're not sure what to do. Splitting the difference is totally reasonable, but realize that this is way more complicated than hey, should I do Roth? You can't just tell me you're your current income and I'm going to know whether you should be making Roth or tax deferred contributions. There's just way more to this question than that. I hope that's helpful to you. Make sure you check out that blog post if you're really concerned about this dilemma. The post is called should you do a Roth contribution or Conversion? Was published March 7, 2025. Okay, let's take another question. Hopefully this one is not quite as complicated.