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This is the White Coat Investor Podcast where we help those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street. We've been helping doctors and other high income professionals stop doing dumb things with their money since 2011. This is White Coat Investor podcast 433 investing questions. Today's episode is brought to us by SoFi, the folks who help you get your money right. Paying off student debt quickly and getting your finances back on track isn't easy, but that's where SoFi can help. They have exclusive low rates designed to help medical residents refinance student loans, and that could end up saving you thousands of dollars, helping you get out of student debt sooner. SoFi also offers the ability to lower your payments to just $100 a month while you're still in residency. And if you're already out of residency, SoFi's got you covered there too. For more information, go to sofi.com whitecoatinvestor SoFi student loans are originated by SoFi Bank NA member FDIC. Additional terms and conditions apply. NMLS 696891 all right, welcome back to the podcast. It's summer. That means we're all trying to take time off around here at White Coat Investor. It's amazing to look at the weeks and see how many of our staff are gone in any given week. That means when we're together, we wedge everything in and try to get the work done. Unfortunately, that's the way emergency medicine works too, and I've apparently taken too much time off in this month. And so here I find myself this week working seven days straight. Now, it's not unusual for docs. I know docs do that all the time, but for me it's a little unusual. I only work six shifts a month and I've got five of them this week between shifts for July at the end of July and shifts for August at the beginning of August. So you can tell I'm recording this on the last day of July. And then of course the other two days in the week are chock full of WCI stuff. So I'm feeling a little crispy right now. Not going to lie, but I'm going to spend all next week backpacking, so should be okay. Looking forward to going to the Uintah Mountains with some young men from our church group. So it should be a lot of fun. All right, let's get into your questions today. We've got a lot of great questions to talk about today. The first one comes in from somebody who sent me an email, said I Have a suggestion for a blog post. And I said, sounds better to cover on the podcast. Said a rundown on the financial details in a stock quote. I agree with your preachings against picking and owning individual stocks. However, chump's going to chump. And one of those chumps is my wife, who recently enthusiastically brought me the quote on her latest stock interest. The reason she was so excited was that the price per share was five bucks, which she considers a steal. I tried to explain that the price per share is meaningless without considering the underlying value per share, but she wasn't having it. Just like with free handbags, she believes that the price is the value. That got me thinking that a rundown on the stock fund, ETF, etc. Quote items, especially the significance of price per share, may be beneficial. Okay, well, let's talk about this. First of all, the reason there are publicly owned companies is that once people owned a company and decided they didn't want to own it anymore, they would rather have cash than own the company, so they sold it. And sometimes you feel like you can get a better price by selling it to everybody than by selling it to just one person or one company. And especially if it's a particularly valuable company, you can't find any one person to buy it. You have to go sell it to everybody. And that's called going public, right? That's when a stock becomes a stock, when it gets on the stock market, right. It goes from being a public company or a private company to being a publicly traded company. And in order to do that, you have to try to figure out about what the company's worth. And then once it starts trading on the stock market, everybody, the market gets to decide what the company's worth. And that changes by the second during the day. That's why the price of your stock goes up by 1% or down by 7% in a single day, because the market changes their opinion as things go along. The market is all of us weighing in on what the opinion is. So the way you determine the value of a publicly traded company, though, is you count up the number of shares and you multiply the number of shares by the price per share, right? So that's not that hard to do. Basically, that information's available for any publicly traded company, right? So if we put in Tesla stock into Google, what pops up is Tesla Inc. It says it's traded on the nasdaq, gives you the ticker TSLA and tells you what the market cap of of the company is. And according to this, it is $967 billion. $967 billion is a market capitalization. That's how much the company is worth. The value of the company at this second is $967 billion, almost a trillion dollars. That makes it a big company. This is a large cap company, right? There are mid cap companies and there are small cap companies, but when you're worth a trillion dollars, you're considered a large cap. Okay? But if you look at the information available on that, you can see all kinds of things. The most interesting thing that we look at most often is probably the stupid chart that pops up. And you can change that chart. You can. It'll show you how the price has varied over the last day. As I record this, it looks like Tesla's down today. It's gone down from 9am it was 320 bucks a share and now it's 308 bucks a share. If we lengthen that out and look at the year to date number, we see that Tesla was not an awesome thing to own this year. Right? It peaked in January at $428 a share. And again today it's $308 a share. So it's down like over 25%, 26%, 27% this year. Now you understand why I don't talk about politics so much on this podcast, right? When the CEO of Tesla gets involved in politics, his company becomes worth a lot less. Lesson to learn there, I suppose. Now this also tells you the high and low prices for this stock during the day. You know, it's been anywhere from $306 a share to $321 a share. It will tell you the price to earnings ratio, the PE ratio, basically how much you're paying per dollar of earnings. And it's pretty ridiculous. For Tesla, according to this, it's $179 for a dollar of earnings. The PE ratio is 179. Pretty impressive that people would be willing to pay that much for this company. Basically what that says, when you're willing to pay that much for a dollar of earnings, you're saying, I think the earnings are going to grow and I think they're going to grow faster than the typical company. That's why you're willing to pay 40 or 50 or 100 or 200 times earnings, because you think the earnings are going to grow. Okay? So that tells you lots of things about it. But as the emailer notes, the price of the stock doesn't matter, right? It doesn't matter if there are 10 million shares of the stock and it's worth a hundred bucks a share. Or if there are 5 million shares of the stock and it's worth $200 a share, it doesn't matter. The company's worth the same. So a stock that is $5 is not cheaper than a stock that is $10. Right. It doesn't matter if you buy two shares of the $5 one or one share of the $10 one. Right? Same, same. The way we look at what's cheap are valuation type things like a price to earnings ratio, a P E ratio, or a price to book ratio. Right. These sorts of things are how you tell which stocks are cheaper, which stocks are more expensive. And sometimes it's okay to buy a more expensive stock, sometimes it's worth more. But you don't judge that by the share price, you judge that by the PE ratio. Right. The share price is irrelevant. I mean, I guess if you're so poor that you can only buy one share of stock and Tesla's $308 and you don't have $308, so you gotta buy something else. Well, I guess that's a concern. But for most of us you can buy any stock you want. That's not gonna be a problem. You're gonna be buying multiple shares of those stocks if you're buying stocks. So the share price is really price pretty much irrelevant. So don't get too hung up on that. All right. If we put in a mutual fund or an etf, let's put in vti. Right. This is the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF share class. This is a big piece of our portfolio. About 25% of our portfolio is invested in this or something very similar to it that we tax loss harvest to. You can see that the share price is $310, about the same as the price of Tesla stocks. So, you know, it asks if that is, you know, worth more or less. Now this is interesting. I look at the market cap on this and it says 254 billion. I'm not sure that's right. Maybe that's right just for the ETF share class. But if I go to Vanguard's site, I'm pretty sure there's a lot more money in the total stock market index fund than just a quarter trillion dollars. Let's see what the actual website says here. Portfolio composition, number of stocks, median market cap of those stocks, the earnings growth rate. And maybe that's what they're reporting. Maybe what this fund is reporting is the median market cap for those rather than how much is actually in the fund, because the fund's net assets as of the end of June was $1.9 trillion. So that's not what the ticker is reporting when you put that into Google. Must be the median market cap that it's recording. So the median market cap of the stocks in the fund or the average market cap, I'm not sure it's even the median. So lots of interesting information there. But mainly when you're looking at these things online to click on this stuff, you're just looking for a quick read on what is done this year or today or this month or whatever, rather than looking for detailed information. If you want detailed information, I think one of the best places to go is the Morningstar website. Right. And so all the time I'll type in VTI and Morningstar. If you wanted to learn about Tesla stock, you'd put in Tesla and Morningstar and that'll give you all kinds of fun, detailed information there. Tells you the previous close price, what it closed at yesterday when the market closed. Tells you the 52 week range of what it's traded between. Apparently it's been as low as $182 a share and as high as $488 a share over the last year. It tells you the bid and the ask price. Right? Because this is a market people are asking, you know, the bid price is what people are offering to buy your shares. The ask price is what people are asking if you want to buy shares. And there's a slight difference between them. With a very liquid security, like Tesla stock or like VTI etf, those prices are very close together. But the difference between them is what the market maker gets paid. Right? Cause somebody's gotta hold onto that thing to take it from the buyer and give it to the seller, or take it from the seller and give it to the buyer. And that's what they make is the difference between the bid and the ask. And right now that's 4 cents on a share of Tesla. But that really adds up if you're doing it by the millions and millions of shares of stock that are exchanged every day. Okay, for Tesla, it says here there's 3.2 billion shares outstanding. The market cap is just under a trillion. It tells you how many shares trade every day. 85 million. That's a lot of shares that's trading around. So of the 323 billion, 85 million of them trade every day. This says the price to earnings is 154. Price per sales ratio is 12. So it gives you all kinds of information about the stock. And if you do the same thing, if you put in BTI Morningstar, it'll give you all kinds of information about funds and about ETFs. And you can click on a different tab and look at the performance. You can see what's in the portfolio and really figure out what's in there. You know, it'll tell you, you know, where the, where the stocks are. Of course, with BTI, they're all in the U.S. they'll tell you how many there are. There's 3,547 holdings in the fund. 32% of the fund is in the top 10 holdings. Their turnover is 2% per year, which is what you'd expect when they just buy and hold everything. You wouldn't expect a lot of turnover there. The biggest stock right now is Microsoft. Actually, Microsoft is the biggest stock in the stock market at 6%, 6.19%. Nvidia is next at 6.13%. Apple is next at 5.13%. And apparently 32% of the US stock market is in the top 10 holdings. That's. That's historically relatively high. Right? It's pretty concentrated at the top. That's because large growth has outperformed small value stocks dramatically over the last 15 years. And in fact, the gap in valuations between those two types of stocks has not been as large as it is now. I don't know if it has ever been as large as it is now. That doesn't tell you that small value is going to outperform anytime soon. You got to think the pendulum's probably going to swing back at some point. Didn't this year the international. The US Pendulum swung back this year, but the small value to large growth. Wonderful. Did not. All right, I think that's enough talk about that subject. But yeah, the stock price doesn't matter. That's not what makes something cheap. It's not a good deal because it's five bucks. All right? And another stock might be 80 bucks. That really doesn't matter. The stock price really doesn't matter at all. In fact, when it becomes inconvenient, they just split the stock, right? And so instead of having, whatever, 10 million shares at $500, they've now got 20 million shares at $250. And everyone rejoices and bids up the stock because it's sp. It's irrelevant. It doesn't matter at all. Okay, Joe wants to talk about tracking the returns on his portfolio. Let's Take a listen. Hey Jim, I have a question for you about return tracking and specifically what return you use for your comparators in order to provide a benchmark for your stock portfolio. I do keep an individual stock portfolio as a small portion of my allocation and I track these dollar weighted returns which have actually been quite good in the range of 24 to 25% since 2012. However, I acknowledge that as stocks get what I feel overvalued, I tend to move out of individual stocks in favor of broadly diversified ETFs to try to minimize my individual stock risk as values change. So I have been out of the market in terms of individual stocks during some larger downturns, for example during COVID and during 2022. As such, I'm trying to decide how to best compare my individual stock returns in a dollar weighted approach, but I find that it's actually quite challenging to do a true dollar weighted adjustment based on when my money flows in and out of individual stocks. I do use BTI as my comparator as I'm trying to base myself against a large cap index, but not sure whether I should be using a dollar weight or a time weighted tracking return. Thanks. Okay, let's talk about stock picking. Joe Long term white coat investors know I'm not a huge fan of stock picking or timing the market, both of which you're doing. You tell me you've been doing this for a long time though. 12. 12 years? Something like that? More. I don't remember what year you just said it was that you started, but it's been a long time. And you're telling me you're making 24 or 25%. Okay, I assume that's true. You can actually accurately calculate a return. I'm not 100% sure of that because that's what your question is, is how to actually do this. But if it's true, if you're really making 24 or 25% a year because you're particularly talented and skilled at timing the market and picking stocks, I'm not sure you should just be managing your own money. Joe, there are a lot of people out there trying to do this and not having much success at it. They're certainly not whooping the market by 10 or 15% a year. So if you can truly do this, if you're truly one of those very talented people out there, you should be managing billions of dollars, not your own measly $100,000 or $2,000,000 or however much money you have. So keep that in mind. If you Want to be a stock picker? Track your returns. Track them rigorously. And if it turns out you're really good at this, maybe you missed your calling. Maybe you shouldn't be in medicine or law or whatever has caused you to listen to the White Coat Investor podcast. Maybe you should be out there managing money. It is no small feat to have those sorts of returns long term. Okay, so let's talk a little bit about how to track your returns. And I find the easiest, most accurate way to do this. Maybe it's not the easiest, but it is the most accurate, is to use a spreadsheet. If you use a spreadsheet, whether it's Microsoft Excel or Google Sheets, you use a function called xirr. It gives you the internal rate of return of the investment. This is a dollar weighted return, it's not a time weighted return. And Morningstar will put out these studies every now and then saying that investors in general underperform their funds. They give you the funds time weighted return. That's what funds report. And they give you the investor's dollar weighted return because that's the return that investors get. And because investors chase performance, the dollar weighted return tends to lag the time weighted return by several percentage points. You also see that because the market generally goes up over time and investors are of course putting money in as time goes along. So if some of your money went in in April and some of that went in in October and some that went in November this year to that investment, of course you're going to underperform it if it went up over the whole year. Right? Because the time weighted return assumes you had the same amount of money in there the whole year and you actually didn't. So if you're tracking your own returns, I think you ought to use the dollar weighted return. And that's what XIRR gives you. So you can practice this. And there's a blog post on the website about it. If you Google Xirr or calculate your return on the White Coat Investor website, it will walk you through this process and show you how to do it. But basically there's one column of dates and you have to use the date function, right? You can't just type in the date, you got to use the date function in the spreadsheet. And in the other column is your cash flows. Okay? If you're putting money into the portfolio, it's negative. Take money out of the portfolio, it's positive. And then you have your starting values, a negative number at the top, your ending values, a positive number for whatever it's worth right now at the bottom and it gives you the return that's an annualized return. So if you're doing this for a period of time, less than a year, it's going to annualize it out. So if you've made 8% this year and you're only halfway through the year, it's going to tell you 16% and over a mini year period, it's going to annualize it as well. So if you tell them it's an eight year period and it gives you a number that's going to be a return per year that you're getting, that's what the IRR is, is it's an annualized number, which is the one that matters. So that's the way you track your return. Now if you're trying to figure out how you're doing with your stock portfolio, with your stock picking prowess, all you have to keep track of is when the money goes into the account and when money comes out of the account. You don't have to track every individual stock that you're picking and buying and selling and day trading or whatever. All you gotta do is when you take money out of the account, so when it sits in cash, well, it's still inside the account, right? So you don't have to take that out of the account if you're going to measure the return of that account. So that's the way I would do it if I were you. And if it turns out you're really as talented as you are, you've got to ask yourself, are you lucky or are you good? And if you have a conviction that you're good, you ought to go start raising capital, start investing money for more than just yourself and start running a hedge fund or whatever. Because I know a lot of people that would love to have 25% a year returns. You can own the entire world in like one generation or two generations if you can get 25% returns a year, they're pretty awesome. Okay, our quote of the day today comes from Abraham Lincoln who said, you cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today. I think there's a lot of wisdom there. Okay, Ricardo has got a question about bonds. Let's take a listen to your question, Ricardo.
