World Bank | The Development Podcast

Episode: 2024 in Review and the Challenges Ahead

Date: December 19, 2024
Host: Sarah Treanor
Guests: Ayhan Khosa (Deputy Chief Economist, World Bank), Emi Mahmoud (Poet and UNHCR Goodwill Ambassador), Andrea Tapia (World Bank)

Overview: Reflecting on 2024 and Confronting the Challenges Ahead

In this year-end episode, The Development Podcast looks back at the major global happenings of 2024 – from seismic shifts in politics to persistent economic and humanitarian challenges – while also scrutinizing the world’s economic trajectory with expert analysis from the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist, Ayhan Khosa. The episode closes on a note of hope and solidarity with a powerful poem from Sudanese poet and activist Emi Mahmoud, urging for collective action and resilience in the face of adversity.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2024: A Year of Change and Uncertainty

• Elections and Political Milestones
  • Approximately 80 countries (over half the world's population) held elections, including landmark events such as Mexico electing its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum.
  • Quote: "Claudia Shane Bound becomes the first woman to break centuries of male domination over the Mexican presidency." — Sarah Treanor [01:14]
• Continued Conflicts and Natural Disasters
  • 400 million children now live in conflict zones, with ongoing wars compounding global crises.
  • Major disasters included a significant earthquake in Japan and extreme weather worldwide (typhoons, flooding, landslides).
• Climate and Development Initiatives
  • COP29 climate summit convened in Baku.
  • The International Development Association (IDA) achieved a record funding round, raising $24 billion to generate $100 billion in financing for vulnerable economies.

2. The State of the Global Economy

Guest: Ayhan Khosa (World Bank Deputy Chief Economist)

• Resilience Amid Headwinds
  • Key message: Despite global economic shocks since 2020, major economies have weathered monetary tightening better than expected, with inflation coming down without global recession.
  • "The resilience is the key word to describe the state of the global economy... Global economic conditions, in a nutshell, have been better than expected, primarily because of the continued solid expansion in the United States." — Ayhan Khosa [04:34]
• Stagnant Growth Concerns
  • Warning that growth levels are too low to significantly reduce poverty or help developing economies catch up.
  • "By the end of this year, one in four developed economies will be poorer than it was on the eve of the pandemic... By 2026, countries that are home to more than 80% of the world's population would still be growing more slowly on average than they were in the decade before COVID-19." — Ayhan Khosa [05:36]
• Persistent Risks
  • Ongoing policy uncertainty, trade fragmentation, debt distress in vulnerable nations, and climate change are major hurdles.

3. Progress on Poverty and Inequality

• Poverty Reduction Stalled
  • Pre-pandemic progress has halted; global extreme poverty remains stubbornly high.
  • "Today, about 8.5% of the world's population still lives in extreme poverty... At the current pace, it would take decades to eradicate extreme poverty and over a century to lift everyone above this $6.85 threshold." — Ayhan Khosa [07:04]
• Inequality: Mixed Picture
  • Fewer countries have extreme levels of inequality, but 1.7 billion people remain in highly unequal societies (mainly in Latin America & Sub-Saharan Africa).
  • "In many poor countries, you see the big problem of violence and conflict... In addition, because of higher interest rates, debt payments get larger, diverting spending away from critical needs." — Ayhan Khosa [08:37]
• Effects of Climate Change
  • Poorer regions are disproportionately exposed to extreme weather and associated income losses.

4. Strategies for Change: What Needs to Happen?

• Country-Specific Approaches
  • For low-income countries: focus on investments in human, physical, and financial capital.
  • For middle-income countries: fight poverty and climate vulnerabilities, tackle air pollution.
• Holistic and Global Solutions Needed
  • "Urgent and coordinated global action is needed... The challenges are definitely interconnected. Our solutions must be interconnected and must be global." — Ayhan Khosa [10:13]

5. Spotlight: IDA Countries and Development Reversal

• IDA21 Replenishment: Hope and Challenge
  • IDA's $100B financing package (biggest ever) considered critical.
  • Problems: Growth slowed/stagnated since pandemic, poverty gap with the rest of the world growing, and 90% of people facing hunger/malnutrition are in these countries.
  • "The convergence process has essentially stopped since 2020. Per capita incomes have been growing more slowly in IDA countries than in the rest of the world." — Ayhan Khosa [12:13]
  • However, IDA countries have potential: young populations, natural assets, and opportunities if development is handled responsibly.

6. Looking to 2025 and Beyond: Messages for Policymakers and The World

• Essential Actions
  • Policymakers must not be complacent. Tackle inflation, keep fiscal sustainability, resist protectionism, prioritize efficiency, address debt distress, and redouble cooperation on climate change and conflict resolution.
  • "Let's face it, problems do not solve themselves if left alone. Problems often become bigger and more difficult to tackle..." — Ayhan Khosa [15:36]
• Global Integration vs. Fragmentation
  • The early 2000s saw progress thanks to global integration; returning to that spirit may be key.
  • "We need to basically revive that type of sentiment to make progress in 2025." — Ayhan Khosa [20:41]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Sisterhood and Hope

  • "Disaster has never carved a wound that sisterhood couldn't mend, Never brought a hunger that brotherhood couldn't feed, Never torn a fissure that humanity couldn't heal. And today will be no different." — Emi Mahmoud [01:28], repeated [23:22]

• On the Challenge of the Present

  • "If the current weak growth trajectory continues or even deteriorates, we could see a lost decade in development." — Ayhan Khosa [07:04]

• On the Power of Collective Action

  • “Do you hear it? To our humanity, our resilience. To call for help and answer. To the pledge. To our increased devotion to one another. This earth, our home. Every one of us a bringer of change. Each helping hand returns threefold. A thousand futures just within our reach.”
    — Emi Mahmoud [23:23]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Year in Review: Elections, Crises, and Climate – 00:55 to 04:07
• Global Economic Assessment with Ayhan Khosa – 04:07 to 15:32
• Future Hopes and Policy Recommendations – 15:32 to 21:03
• Emi Mahmoud’s Poem: "A Thousand Futures" (Performance and Message) – 21:52 to 24:36

Closing Note

The episode artfully weaves together sobering data, global realities, and a call to hope. The year 2024 was marked by turbulence and resilience, but the vision for the future, anchored in solidarity and decisive action, stands clear. The words of Emi Mahmoud close the episode, reminding listeners of the enduring human spirit and the immense potential lying just within reach—echoing the need for global togetherness and collective progress.