World Bank | The Development Podcast

Episode: What Do Shifting Demographics Mean For Future Development?

Date: October 2, 2025
Host: Tony Kherasani

Episode Overview

This episode explores the global implications of demographic change—from Africa’s burgeoning youth population and the promise of a "demographic dividend," to aging populations and fertility declines in countries like Korea, and the vital role data plays in understanding and responding to these trends. Drawing on global perspectives, lived experiences, and insights from World Bank and UNICEF experts, the episode examines both opportunities and challenges for future development.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Stakes of Global Demographic Shifts

• Rising Young Populations vs. Aging Societies
  • Africa’s youth boom is poised to double the continent’s population and could drive major economic growth—if investments keep pace.
  • In contrast, developed regions face workforce shortages, strains on social services, and the societal impacts of aging.

“If we're not investing in them now, we're going to really struggle to be able to deliver on that demographic dividend in the next couple of decades.”
— Sarah Hague, UNICEF ([26:41])

2. Voices from Ghana and Korea: On-the-Ground Realities

[03:03–05:31]

• Ghana: Opportunity Amid Challenge
  • Katya Osei, a young professional, describes Accra’s enterprising youth, drawn toward circular economy initiatives partly out of necessity.
  • She highlights creativity and resilience despite high unemployment fears and limited economic options.
  • The job market is in flux; traditional paths like farming or mining are less appealing or viable due to global forces.

“Young people everywhere are terrified of being unemployed. But interestingly in Ghana, so we can get all of this education, but our options are more limited… Ghanaian people are some of the most creative people I’ve ever known.”
— Katya Osei ([04:19])

• Korea: Progress and Pressure
  • Ju Young Yang, economist at KDI, notes that Korea’s low birth rate and aging society reflect the success of improved healthcare and development.
  • Culturally, having fewer or no children is increasingly common due to cost and personal choice.
  • Young Koreans consider working well past retirement age as a practical response to demographic realities.

“Raising children itself is quite expensive. In Korea...almost every municipality...provides baby check giving money to raise their children.”
— Ju Young Yang ([06:37])

3. Why Data Matters: Driving Better Decisions

[08:32–16:27]

• The World Bank’s Data360 Platform
  • Craig Hammer, from the World Bank Development Data Group, explains Data360’s role in aggregating global development data to inform policies.
  • Data reveals stark aging trends in richer countries and youthful populations in Africa (median age: 19 in Sub-Saharan Africa vs. 38 in the U.S., 48 in Japan).

“With the right types of policies...Sub Saharan African countries can transform the number of young people into an engine for growth. This is why it’s called the demographic dividend.”
— Craig Hammer ([11:00])

• Data Gaps
  • Missing foundational data (e.g., more than 200 million children unregistered at birth) hampers effective targeting of social programs.

“Data is the raw material that drives decision making... There are more than 200 million children around the world whose births have not been registered.”
— Craig Hammer ([14:51])

4. Spotlight: Extreme Child Poverty in Africa & The Role of Policy

[17:24–27:37]

• UNICEF-World Bank Joint Analysis
  • Sarah Hague (UNICEF) outlines that while the number of children in extreme poverty globally dropped by 100 million in a decade, Sub-Saharan Africa is now the epicenter: 3 out of 4 of the world's extremely poor children are African.
  • Some African countries, like Benin and Cote d'Ivoire, have achieved dramatic child poverty reductions, demonstrating that targeted investment pays off.

“In Benin...in just three years, they managed to cut child poverty by 30%.”
— Sarah Hague ([21:10])

• What Drives Progress?
  • Targeted policies: early childhood education, childcare, social protection, and efficient public spending are critical but underfunded in many African countries.
  • On average, social protection spending is much lower in Africa (2% of GDP) than in similar income countries elsewhere (5.4% of GDP).
  • Public finance must be better distributed by age, with crucially more invested in early childhood for lasting returns.

“If we’re not investing in children now, we're gonna have real trouble later down the line preparing for those opportunities later. And that’s a question, I think, of demographics.”
— Sarah Hague ([25:17])

5. Looking Ahead: Can Africa Reap Its Demographic Dividend?

• By 2050, Africans are projected to make up one-third of the global workforce. Realizing this potential “dividend” depends on making bold, immediate policy investments today.
• The risks of underinvestment are significant: missed opportunities and continued high rates of poverty and underemployment.

“Who is the labor force in 2050? It's going to be...the very young children who are being born now. So if we're not investing in them now... we're going to really struggle to be able to deliver on that demographic dividend.”
— Sarah Hague ([27:03])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On creativity amid constraint:
  “I've seen people find jobs and beauty and art in the most unusual places. It's just so beautiful being in Accra…”
  — Katya Osei ([05:15])

• On the need for foundational data:
  “We don't have comparable reading assessments for more than 750 million children around the world. We don’t have data on stunting for more than 300 million children around the world.”
  — Craig Hammer ([15:41])

• On the necessity of policy action:
  “It’s not going to be automatic. So we need to have something in place now to make sure that this future workforce...have the skills and the human capital to be able to deliver on that demographic dividend.”
  — Sarah Hague ([26:57])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:52] — Africa’s demographic opportunity: setting the scene
• [03:03] — Voices from Accra, Ghana: Young professionals on jobs and creativity
• [05:55] — Korea’s aging population: A different development story
• [08:32] — The role of data in development: World Bank’s Data360 explained
• [10:06] — Global birth rate and aging trends; median age comparisons
• [11:00] — Demographic dividend: what it takes
• [17:24] — UNICEF-World Bank joint research on child poverty in Africa
• [20:51] — Progress: African country success stories in reducing child poverty
• [22:02] — Policy levers: What works to reduce extreme child poverty
• [24:35] — How public finance can address demographic, technological, climate trends
• [26:11] — Aging, youth, and the global future: What’s at stake

Final Thoughts

This episode underscores the urgency and complexity of demographic change: it’s a challenge with unprecedented stakes—and one that demands smart investment, reliable data, and policies focused on opportunity and equity, especially for the next generation. Africa’s future, and indeed, the global economic landscape, will be shaped by how governments, international organizations, and communities respond today.