Myanmar Earthquake: How does aid get to where it’s needed?

Summary

World Business Report: Myanmar Earthquake and Global Trade Tensions
BBC World Service, Episode Released on March 28, 2025

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1. Introduction

In this episode of the World Business Report, host Rahul Tandem delves into two significant global issues: the devastating earthquake in Myanmar and the escalating trade tensions between the United States and Denmark over Greenland's security. The episode provides in-depth analysis, expert insights, and firsthand accounts to offer listeners a comprehensive understanding of these complex matters.

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2. Myanmar Earthquake: Immediate Aftermath and Rescue Efforts

At midday local time on March 28, 2025, a powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar, with its epicenter approximately 10 miles from Mandalay, the country's second-largest city. The tremor resulted in widespread destruction, including collapsed buildings and significant casualties.

Rescue Operations in Mandalay

A firsthand account from a rescue worker highlights the severity of the situation:

Rahul Tandem [02:56]: "Our rescue was very horrific. Most of the buildings have collapsed."

Rescue Worker [03:00]: "People are running in the streets screaming and crying."

The rescue efforts are ongoing, with at least 144 fatalities reported and hundreds more injured. The death toll is expected to rise as rescue operations continue.

Regional Impact

The earthquake's effects reverberated beyond Myanmar's borders, notably impacting Thailand. Social media footage revealed the collapse of a half-built skyscraper in Bangkok, trapping numerous construction workers inside.

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3. Expert Analysis: Economic and Humanitarian Challenges in Myanmar

To provide a deeper understanding of Myanmar's plight, host Rahul Tandem interviews Mimi Windbird, a Burmese-American security analyst specializing in the region.

Economic Devastation

Mimi Windbird outlines the severe economic challenges exacerbated by the earthquake:

Mimi Windbird [04:40]: "This economy has reduced by 30%, conservatively by World Bank. So it's 30% smaller than it was before the coup, military coup."

The economy has been further strained by:

• Inflation: Essential commodities like rice have seen prices surge by nearly 50%.
• Currency Devaluation: The local currency has plummeted from 1,300 per dollar to over 4,500 per dollar.

Windbird attributes these issues to the military regime's mismanagement, which has prioritized the interests of a select few over the broader population.

Humanitarian Response and Aid Distribution

Kieran Donnelly, Senior Vice President of International Programs at the International Rescue Committee (IRC), discusses the complexities of delivering aid in such a volatile environment:

Kieran Donnelly [06:04]: "Funding often comes from local communities and from organizations already on the ground."

Donnelly highlights the logistical and political challenges in Myanmar, including:

• Infrastructure Damage: Destroyed roads and airports hinder access to affected areas.
• Conflict Zones: Continuous civil unrest complicates negotiations for humanitarian access.
• Aid Siphoning: Concerns that aid may be diverted by the military, as past experiences in Myanmar have shown.

Mimi Windbird [10:41]: "If they are just working only with the military, I don't have any confidence that it will get to the right people."

Economic Setbacks

The earthquake is expected to further derail any semblance of economic progress in Myanmar, which was already struggling. Windbird emphasizes the nation's vulnerability:

Mimi Windbird [12:19]: "Economy is already in a shamble. So I think that people are already vulnerable and this would just devastate them some more."

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4. Global Trade Tensions: US Accuses Denmark Over Greenland's Security

Shifting focus to international trade dynamics, the episode explores the United States' Vice President JD Vance's recent accusations against Denmark for allegedly underinvesting in Greenland's security infrastructure.

Denmark's Investment in Greenland

Mikael Rong Ollason, Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, provides context to the US claims:

Mikael Rong Ollason [15:26]: "Denmark is investing quite a bit every year in Greenland. Subsidies through a block grant to Greenland is a quite significant amount of money."

However, Ollason acknowledges challenges in efficiently allocating these funds:

Mikael Rong Ollason [16:19]: "We haven't heard a clear answer from the Danish Ministry of Defense yet. But... those money that was initially promised in 2019, that they haven't been spent yet."

Strategic Importance of Greenland

Greenland's vast reserves of critical minerals like graphite, rare earth elements, nickel, and gold make it a focal point for global economic and security interests. The US is keen on strengthening its presence in Greenland, partly due to its strategic location and resource potential.

Chris Lowe [19:36]: "They [Greenland’s minerals] are extremely valuable, but it's absolutely true that it's both extraordinarily hard to extract and ship them from an environment like Greenland’s."

Greenland's Independence Movement

Despite significant investment from Denmark, there is a strong desire among Greenlanders for true independence, not merely a shift of dependence from Denmark to the US.

Mikael Rong Ollason [18:14]: "The majority of the Greenlanders want independence from Denmark. But they don't want independence from Denmark just to be dependent on the U.S."

Retaliatory Tariffs and Economic Repercussions

The tensions have escalated into discussions of retaliatory tariffs, with potential impacts on US industries that are politically significant, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and fossil fuels.

Amica Insurance Representative [24:27]: "You see these foreign tariffs that are impacting places and industries that are really symbolic... such as agricultural products, manufactured products, and fossil fuel energy products."

Economic Analysts Weigh In

Chris Lowe, Chief Economist at FHN Financial in New York, comments on the intricacies of the situation:

Chris Lowe [19:36]: "Rare earths and other minerals, these markets that China dominates... have driven other people out of the market."

He further explains the challenges faced by global markets in the context of US-Denmark tensions:

Chris Lowe [20:34]: "It's extraordinary. I've had meetings all week with some huge money managers and all of them are struggling to keep up with the latest news."

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5. Broader Implications: Trade Wars and Market Volatility

The episode discusses the potential for a broader trade war initiated by the US through tariffs targeting key industries and regions pivotal to Donald Trump’s political base.

Targeted Tariffs and Political Impact

Amica Insurance Representative [24:27]: "They have under invested in the security architecture of this incredible beautiful landmass filled with incredible people."

Tariffs are strategically aimed at:

• Swing States: Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Arkansas.
• Key Industries: Agriculture, manufacturing, fossil fuels.

These tariffs not only affect economic relations but also carry significant political weight, potentially influencing voter sentiments in crucial regions.

Market Reactions

The uncertainty surrounding these trade tensions has led to increased volatility in global markets:

Chris Lowe [28:10]: "The stock market was down sharply again today."

He emphasizes the difficulty market analysts face in predicting outcomes amidst rapidly evolving trade policies.

Strategic Responses

Experts suggest that countries should navigate these tensions by:

• Standing Up for National Interests: Balancing economic benefits with political considerations.
• Diversifying Trade Relations: Reducing over-reliance on the US market to mitigate potential retaliatory impacts.

Larry Summers [22:38]: "Acting in your own national interest is exactly what Donald Trump is doing."

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6. Technological Developments: Elon Musk's Acquisition

In a brief segment, the episode touches upon Elon Musk's business maneuvers:

Chris Lowe [28:36]: "X AI startup has acquired the X social media platform for 33 billion... can become a public company, making him less of a lightning rod for the company itself."

This acquisition reflects strategic realignments in the tech industry, although the broader economic implications remain limited within the episode's scope.

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7. Conclusion

The episode of World Business Report offers a multifaceted exploration of pressing global issues—ranging from the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar following a catastrophic earthquake to the intricate web of international trade tensions involving the US and Denmark over Greenland's strategic assets. Through expert interviews and detailed analysis, listeners gain valuable insights into the challenges and dynamics shaping our world today.

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Notable Quotes:

• Mimi Windbird [04:40]: "This economy has reduced by 30%, conservatively by World Bank."
• Kieran Donnelly [08:26]: "Cash assistance is actually one of the most efficient ways to deliver support."
• Mikael Rong Ollason [18:14]: "The majority of the Greenlanders want independence from Denmark."
• Chris Lowe [24:09]: "I think it would be better to cooperate."
• Amica Insurance Representative [24:27]: "They have under invested in the security architecture of this incredible beautiful landmass filled with incredible people."

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Note: Advertisements and non-content segments have been excluded from this summary to focus solely on the episode's substantive discussions.

Transcript

[Rahul Tandem]

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk. At Amica Insurance, we know it's more than a life policy.

[Amica Insurance Representative]

It's about the promise and the responsibility that comes with being a new parent.

[Rahul Tandem]

Being there day and night and building a plan for tomorrow today for the ones you'll always look out for.

[Amica Insurance Representative]

Trust Amica Life Insurance. Amica Empathy is our best policy.

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[Rahul Tandem]

Hello and welcome to the World Business Report here on the BBC World Service. I'm Rahul Tandem. Plenty coming up on this edition. Of course there will be conversations about tariffs and the US Vice President JD Van slides in Greenland and starts a new row. He says Denmark has under invested in the territory. Is he right?

[Mikael Rong Ollason]

Denmark is investing quite a bit every year in Greenland. Subsidies through block grant to Greenland is quite significant amount of money.

[Rahul Tandem]

And we'll be telling you a little bit more about that phone call between the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Donald Trump where guess what? Tariffs came up in the conversation. But it was around midday local time when a 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck in central Myanmar. The epicenter was about 10 miles from the country's second city, Mandalay. And soon reports began to emerge of deaths, injuries and collapsed buildings. That was the sound of a pagoda near Mandalay being destroyed. And according to this man involved in the rescue effort, it was one of many examples of buildings not being able to withstand the force of the quake.

[Colgate Palmolive Representative]

The view of Mandalay as we began.

[Rahul Tandem]

Our rescue was very horrific. Most of the buildings have collapsed.

[Colgate Palmolive Representative]

People are running in the streets screaming and crying.

[Rahul Tandem]

Some people are running with injuries, some.

[Colgate Palmolive Representative]

People are falling down on the road.

[Rahul Tandem]

We had to rescue people trapped in the rubble. So far we know that at least 144 people have been killed. Hundreds more have been injured. We're expecting that death toll to rise. Neighboring countries have also felt the effects of the quake, most notably Thailand, where in scenes that were spread quickly around the world via social media, a half built skyscraper in Bangkok with many construction workers inside collapsed. Let's bring in Mimi Windbird, a Burmese American security analyst who specializes in Myanmar. Mimi, thanks so much for joining us here on the program. This is an area that you know well. This is a country that you were born in. What reports are you getting of the scale of the damage inside the country?

[Mimi Windbird]

Thank you so much for having me. First, I want to express heartfelt sympathy for the victims of the earthquake in Myanmar and also in Thailand. While in Thailand, Thai government has launched a rescue effort in Myanmar. The military resume bombing of some of the affected area soon after the earthquake. So that's the difference.

[Rahul Tandem]

What about the scale of the damage? This is a country you know well whose economy has been devastated over the last few years, hasn't it? Just give our listeners an idea of the state of the economy in many parts of the country.

[Mimi Windbird]

Yes, this economy has reduced by 30%, conservatively by World Bank. So it's 30% smaller than it was before the, before the coup, military coup. And right now the inflation of rice, you know, very essential, is nearly 50%. And the currency has devalued from $1,300 per dollar, 1300 per dollar to 4500 over 4500 per dollar. So those are the economic problem and it's all caused by the military regime weaponizing the economy and then coming up develop these policy that are economic policy that are benefiting his family and the small group of cronies.

[Rahul Tandem]

Just stay there for a minute. You know, the military has on this occasion requested help it hasn't done on previous occasions. So a slight difference there. But I want you to listen to this for us, Mimi. Kieran Donnelly is senior vice president of international programs at the aid agency International Rescue Committee. I've been asking him in these sort of situations, how do you get money? How do you get aid to these.

[Kieran Donnelly]

Areas in the first instance, Funding often comes from local communities and from organizations.

[Chris Lowe]

Already on the ground.

[Kieran Donnelly]

We at the International Rescue Committee have worked in Myanmar for nearly two decades. We have about 350 staff on the ground who are already mobilizing to assess the needs in communities and with the resources we already have at our disposal, figuring out how to respond. But we know that those resources are going to be insufficient to meet the needs. The numbers and reports of damage we're seeing come out even with limited communications. We know that it's significant. We know that damage estimates and the numbers of people affected are only going to grow over the coming days. And so when it comes to resourcing the response, typically it's government donors, multilateral institutions like the UN, as well as private donors who respond through giving campaigns and appeals that fund organizations like the IRC and our humanitarian partners, as well as our local partners on the ground in Myanmar to be able to respond.

[Rahul Tandem]

And you need to know, don't you, how much money is needed to solve or help deal with the problems that Myanmar is now facing. When you have difficulty in terms of communication, how easy is it to build up that picture?

[Kieran Donnelly]

It's really difficult. And the starting point here is that Myanmar is a country that's been affected by civil conflict for the last several years, in which public services, the health system, infrastructure, and so on have already been significantly impacted by that conflict, where there's nearly 20 million people affected in need of humanitarian assistance, three and a half million people displaced, and where the UN appeal for funding for the total humanitarian response is only funded to the tune of less than 5%. So there's already a significant gap between what's needed to meet the humanitarian needs before the earthquake struck and what's currently available now. When an earthquake strikes, it's very hard to get that information. And so, inevitably, we're always going to be working on the basis of our best estimates of trying to figure out what's needed. But we know that what's currently available and what's in the pipeline is going to be far from sufficient.

[Rahul Tandem]

You know, what you have available at the moment. So what do you do with that money, then? How do you get it to the people who are affected? Is that by providing them with goods? In some instances, will you try and give them direct cash to help them get the resources they need?

[Kieran Donnelly]

It's a little bit of everything, really. I mean, what people need in a situation like this, they need immediate support. They need shelter, they need access to safe water. They need, in some cases, as you say, cash, to be able to purchase food for themselves and their families or replace things that they've Lost, they may need clothes, things like that. Cash assistance is actually one of the most efficient ways to deliver support because we can get it to people quickly and then they can rely on local markets which are always, always active even in the worst crises to be able to get what they need and to identify for themselves what's going to best meet their needs. But in other cases, it's going to be providing drugs and pharmaceutical supplies to health clinics, it's going to be providing shelter and construction materials to help people to keep themselves out of the elements. If it's not safe to go back into their buildings.

[Rahul Tandem]

How easy is it to get into those affected areas? One, because there's been an earthquake and two, because this is a country where there has a large amount of civil conflict.

[Kieran Donnelly]

Well, that's exactly the two challenges, right? In any earthquake situation you've got, particularly in a country where there isn't already a strong infrastructure, but you've got roads that have been destroyed, you've got airports that have been damaged, you've got supply chains that have been disrupted. It's very hard simply physically to get into the affected areas. Now, organizations like ours, we have staff based in those communities who are able to respond directly and communicate back to us as best they can. But when you're talking about responding in a conflict situation as in Myanmar or as in other conflicts around the world, you then have to negotiate with different parties to be able to work across conflict lines. What I hope to see and what I appeal to any party in the conflict is to allow unfettered access for humanitarian agencies, regardless of areas of control or conflict lines, to be able to access those communities, to assess needs and to continue responding to communities on the basis of how severely they've been impacted and to be able to respond in a needs based way.

[Rahul Tandem]

Vice President of International Programs at the aid agency the International Rescue Committee, Amimi Winbert. Still with us, getting those resources in is difficult. Do you worry that all those resources that may get in will go to the right areas, to the right people?

[Mimi Windbird]

Right. As long as if they are just working only with the military, I don't have any confidence that it will get to the right people because we have had many experience of military siphoning off all these aid materials and I personally was involved in the cyclonargis response and there has been stories of all these aid material ended up in the military's hand. And even as recent as in Rakhine State, we saw in the military warehouse World Food Program food that are being distributed, kept for the military rations. So these really important to work through the local on the ground organization rather than through the military regime.

[Rahul Tandem]

Mimi, last question to you. This is a country that, as you described at the beginning, has suffered economically so much. We're just getting a sense of the scale of the devastation. But this is going to set back that economic progress even more now, isn't it?

[Mimi Windbird]

Well, there wasn't any economic progress according to the World Bank. There was no sign of growth at all for the economy. They don't even have enough energy. I mean, they only get four hours of electricity. So economy is already in a shamble. So I think that people are already vulnerable and this would just devastate them some more.

[Rahul Tandem]

Mimi, thanks for joining us here on WORLD Business report. Somebody who knows that area very well and closely follows the political and economic developments that takes at Amica Insurance. We know it's more than a life policy.

[Amica Insurance Representative]

It's about the promise and the responsibility that comes with being a new parent.

[Rahul Tandem]

Being there day and night and building a plan for tomorrow today for the ones you'll always look out for.

[Amica Insurance Representative]

Trust amiga Life insurance Ameca Empathy is our best policy.

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[Rahul Tandem]

Place there. Let's move to Europe now because the US Vice President JD Vance has accused Denmark of under investing in the security of Greenland and leaving it vulnerable.

[Chris Lowe]

Our message to Denmark is very simple.

[Amica Insurance Representative]

You have not done a good job by the people of Greenland.

[Chris Lowe]

You have under invested in the people.

[Amica Insurance Representative]

Of Greenland and you have under invested.

[Chris Lowe]

In the security architecture of this incredible beautiful landmass filled with incredible people. That has to change.

[Mikael Rong Ollason]

And because it hasn't changed, this is why President Trump's policy in Greenland is what it is.

[Rahul Tandem]

These people in Greenland gave the BBC their views of the new United States policy towards them.

[Chris Lowe]

I don't mind to cooperate with the Americans, but most of the population in Nuuk or maybe in Greenland are just against that.

[Kieran Donnelly]

Trump and a lot of people are worried.

[Mikael Rong Ollason]

And I think it's also because we.

[Kieran Donnelly]

Are very agreed on that their intentions aren't as pure or as clear as they claim to be. I think he is delirious. He thinks he can just take over the world.

[Rahul Tandem]

Let's pick up on that sense that J.D. vance has tried to create that Denmark is under investing in the security of Greenland. I've been speaking about that to Mikael Rong Ollason, senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies.

[Mikael Rong Ollason]

If you were to make a point of it, I would say that the US has more of a point on security than on the other matter. I mean, Denmark is investing quite a bit every year in Greenland. Subsidies through a block grant to Greenland is quite significant amount of money. But when it comes to security, of course, well, it's actually been very high on the Danish agenda since at least 2019. But the problem has been that the money that has sort of been set aside, it has proven difficult to spend it than to decide to spend it. There has been problems finding a way to get that that money spent. And that is obviously not putting Denmark in a very good position with the US now in 2025, when the fact of the matter is that a lot of the money that Denmark initially said it would spend already back in, in 2019, it hasn't been spent yet.

[Rahul Tandem]

When you. Can I interrupt you though, when you say they don't know where to spend the money or they're struggling to spend the money, it's normally the other way around. It's hard to get the money. Why haven't they been able to spend it?

[Mikael Rong Ollason]

We haven't heard a clear answer from the Danish Ministry of Defense yet. But of course, when it comes to sort of defense spending, when it comes to buying new equipment, all sorts of things can go wrong in terms of making sure you find the right gear for the job and get the contract signed. But for whatever reasons, the fact of the matter remains that those money that was initially promised in 2019, that they haven't been spent yet. And that is unfortunate. The political will is actually there. The problem is just to get these investments implemented quickly enough.

[Rahul Tandem]

Really, we're talking about investment in security. Can I talk to you about investment in critical minerals? Because there's graphite, there's rare earth, there's nickel, there's gold in Greenland. Has Denmark done enough to develop those areas?

[Mikael Rong Ollason]

I would argue actually, that this also very much comes down to the free market. Right. This comes down to whether there are companies willing to invest. And the big problem about minerals in Greenland is Greenland is very wealthy on loads of different minerals. The problem just is that it is a very remote place. It's a harsh climate. So it is fairly expensive to extract minerals from Greenland. And therefore there has been challenges for big companies in finding good business cases for extracting these resources. That more than anything really has been the fact that that has slowed down these things.

[Rahul Tandem]

The US is trying to some extent, isn't it, to take advantage of the fact that many people in Greenland do want independence from Denmark, don't they?

[Mikael Rong Ollason]

Yeah. Yeah, they definitely do. There's no doubt about it. The majority of the Greenlanders want independence from Denmark. Every poll shows this. But they don't want independence from Denmark just to be dependent on the U.S. instead, they want true independence. That's. What should we say, the tricky part of it, from a US Perspective, then they would also sort of have to sell why the Greenlanders should give up that independence and then join the US Instead.

[Rahul Tandem]

Do you think that because Donald Trump and JD Vance have made and are continuing to make such an issue of Greenland that we will see Denmark spending maybe more money on Greenland than it had planned to.

[Mikael Rong Ollason]

Yeah, I think that is actually likely. If that was the motive all along from the US Side, then that part of it could be said to be working, but of course, at the price of the US Danish relationship, which has really suffered tremendous blows these recent months. But, yes, to answer your question, I think that this crisis is leading Denmark to spend more than it otherwise would. But Denmark was already planning to spend a lot more in the Arctic, but now it may be even more so.

[Rahul Tandem]

Chris Lowe is with us, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York. Interesting to hear those voices from Greenland. Security, obviously a big concern, but those minerals and raw materials that Greenland have are extremely valuable, aren't they, Chris?

[Chris Lowe]

They are, but it's absolutely true that it's both extraordinarily hard to extract and ship them from an environment like Greenlands, but also these rare earths and other minerals, these markets that China dominates. China is very effective at causing the price to decline by producing more when people try to compete with them. And in that way, they have driven other people out of the market. So the challenges are deep and geopolitical as well as economic.

[Rahul Tandem]

Chris, we're going to talk about tariffs now, no surprise. And we're going to get your thoughts in more detail. But just briefly, if you don't mind, as somebody who's a market analyst, how difficult is it to follow what's going on at the moment?

[Chris Lowe]

It's extraordinary. I've had meetings all week with some huge money managers and all of them are struggling to keep up with the latest news. And I think most are resigned to sort of let's try to figure out where things will land three or four months from now and maybe not worry too much about the day to day blow by blow stories.

[Rahul Tandem]

Well, listen, let's now talk through today's story. The Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney says he's told Donald Trump that Ottawa will impose retaliatory tariffs on American goods from early in April, the two leaders held their first call since Mr. Carney took office earlier this month. Speaking at the White House, Mr. Trump well, he was positive about the call, but once again talked about tariffs on America's biggest trading partners.

[Chris Lowe]

We had a very, very good talk. He's going through an election now and we'll see what happens. But we have Liberation Day, as you know, on April 2nd because and I'm not referring to Canada, but many countries have taken advantage of us, the likes of which nobody even thought was possible for many, many decades. And, you know, that has to stop. We're going to end up with a very good relationship with Canada and a lot of the other countries.

[Kieran Donnelly]

Some we probably won't.

[Chris Lowe]

It won't be so pleasant.

[Rahul Tandem]

Mark Carney says that Canada and the US Will, they'll hold talks about the strained economic relationship after Canada's general election later next month.

[Chris Lowe]

Right now, as Canadians, we have to look out for ourselves and we have.

[Kieran Donnelly]

To look out for each other. The old relationship we had with the.

[Rahul Tandem]

United States based on deepening integration of.

[Kieran Donnelly]

Our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over.

[Chris Lowe]

What exactly the US does next is unclear.

[Kieran Donnelly]

But what is clear is that we as Canadians have agency, we have power.

[Rahul Tandem]

So how should countries respond to Donald Trump's proposed and implemented tariffs? Larry Summers is a former U.S. treasury Secretary.

[Chris Lowe]

I think the system in general functions.

[Mikael Rong Ollason]

Best when in international negotiation countries are.

[Chris Lowe]

Prepared to stand up for their own interests.

[Mikael Rong Ollason]

So I think the instinct that a number of countries have had to find politically sensitive sectors in the United States.

[Chris Lowe]

And use them for retaliation is a warranted one.

[Rahul Tandem]

We're going to hear a bit more about that in a minute. But, Chris, it's hard, though, isn't it, for these countries? Because when you look at trading relations, often that powers with the US Isn't it?

[Chris Lowe]

Absolutely. And Canada in particular. I understand where Carney's coming from, and I've spoken to many, many Canadians about the tariffs, and they share his feelings. They want to fight back. But Canada has a $2 trillion economy. The U.S. economy is closer to 30 trillion. We consume about 20% of what they produce. If there is a trade war, I imagine the Canadian unemployment rate could reach 10% pretty quickly. In other words, fighting back, I think would be extraordinarily painful. It may be better to cooperate. I would also point out that Larry Summers point about acting in your own national interest is exactly what Donald Trump is doing.

[Rahul Tandem]

Yep, that is definitely the case. If countries were to impose tariffs, where would they put them? Would there be particular regions of the U.S. that's a question I put to Robert Maxson from the Brookings Institute, who's been looking at what areas retaliatory tariffs are likely to target in the U.S.

[Amica Insurance Representative]

I think that the takeaway, right, is foreign countries have maps of the US as well. They know what industries to target that will not only have economic impacts for US Businesses, but political ones for both Donald Trump's core supporters and I think the Republican Party writ large.

[Rahul Tandem]

So which areas are they targeting of the U.S. yeah.

[Amica Insurance Representative]

So you see these foreign tariffs that are impacting places and industries that are really symbolic, I think, to how Donald Trump fashions himself. You know, he sees himself as being a champion for rural farmers, as bringing jobs back in the manufacturing and fossil fuel sectors. Those are the places and the industries that other countries are retaliating against. Right. You see Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Arkansas, really all of these swing Midwest and Southern states that form the core of Donald Trump's voting bloc and 2016 and then again in 2024. Those are the states that are most exposed to these tariffs. And the reason that is is you see agricultural products, manufactured products, and fossil fuel energy products being three of the main areas that are being impacted.

[Rahul Tandem]

We've been here before, haven't we, in Donald Trump's first administration where we saw retaliatory tariffs from the Chinese. Did it. Did they work? I mean, did it have a political impact?

[Amica Insurance Representative]

It depends on what you mean when you say work. Right. So foreign governments are really willing to forego some of their own economic benefits to hurt the U.S. you know, these tariffs are likely hurting businesses in China, in Canada and in the eu, just as US Tariffs are disrupting US businesses. But I think that politically, you know, many voters, especially in Canada and the eu, are really willing to back their leaders on this. They really want to see their leaders standing up to Donald Trump.

[Rahul Tandem]

This feels different from the first Trump administration in that there seems to be, or it seems likely that we could see a much wider spread use of tariffs. So that means the retaliatory actions could be a lot bigger. Will it mainly still be targeting those Republican areas or could Democrat areas be targeted as well?

[Amica Insurance Representative]

Well, at a certain point, you know, if we're talking blanket retaliatory tariffs or if we're talking, you know, what might be potentially a reversion to kind of the Pre World War II norm of having tariffs rather than free trade as the basis for global commerce, then pretty much every place is going to be impacted in some regard. And you saw that already, right? There were Harris voting areas that were absolutely impacted. But in the US what I'll say is that there's a distinct geography for some industries. Manufacturing, farming, energy. These communities tend to be places that vote Republican more frequently. And they're also the communities that have the most goods that you can export.

[Rahul Tandem]

And I suppose what we're talking about is that in countries like China that you have people sitting there almost working out county by county which areas are going to be affected the most, sitting in front of a US map and say, look, we need to put tariffs on these areas to hurt Donald Trump the most.

[Amica Insurance Representative]

I would say it's not just probably that's happening. My bet is that is what's happening. This is all public information for the U.S. this data is very freely, publicly available and it's quite straightforward to build a lot of these models. I'm sure foreign countries are doing exactly what you laid out there.

[Rahul Tandem]

Robert Maxim there, Chris Lowe still with us. And Chris, the markets again wobbly with all these tariff concerns?

[Chris Lowe]

Oh, absolutely. The stock market was down sharply again today. This week we've been sort of fighting just to get back above where the market was on election day.

[Rahul Tandem]

Let's talk about Elon Musk. He says his X AI startup has acquired the X social media platform for 33 billion, a bit less than what he paid for it initially.

[Chris Lowe]

That's right. A perfect fit though, because X is the way most users access the grok AI that X AI runs it also takes it off his hands and replenishes his cash at a time when some of his businesses are suffering for political reasons.

[Rahul Tandem]

Chris, you got 30 seconds here. Why would he sell one company owns to another company?

[Chris Lowe]

Well, because the AI company is much more viable in the marketplace. It has a higher market cap and it takes the X platform off his hands, ultimately can become a public company, making him less of a lightning rod for the company itself.

[Rahul Tandem]

Chris, as always, thank you for joining us on the program. Good luck. Following the twists and turns of the market, China's foreign ministry has said it stands ready to do its best to provide emergency humanitarian assistance to me and Amal. We'll be back with Business matters.

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