WSJ Tech News Briefing: OpenAI’s GPT-5 Is Behind Schedule. What Happened?

Release Date: December 23, 2024
Host: Danny Lewis
Guest: Deepa Sitharaman, WSJ Tech Reporter
Personal Tech Columnist: Nicole Nguyen

Introduction

In the December 23, 2024 episode of WSJ Tech News Briefing, host Danny Lewis delves into two major topics poised to capture the interest of tech enthusiasts and the general public alike. With Christmas just around the corner, Lewis first explores innovative digital gift ideas with personal tech columnist Nicole Nguyen. Following this, the discussion shifts to the highly anticipated yet delayed release of OpenAI's next-generation artificial intelligence model, GPT-5. The episode provides insightful analysis on the reasons behind the delay and its potential ramifications for OpenAI's business trajectory.

Thoughtful Digital Gifts for the Holidays

As the holiday season approaches, the pressure to find meaningful gifts intensifies. Nicole Nguyen addresses the common perception of gift cards as impersonal presents and offers strategies to transform them into thoughtful gifts.

Transforming Gift Cards into Personal Gifts

Nguyen acknowledges that while gift cards are often seen as the "gift of last resort," they can be personalized to enhance their sentimental value. She emphasizes the importance of selecting the right type of subscription to align with the recipient's interests.

“Gift cards really don't have to feel impersonal. And if you do your research and make sure you're getting the right kind of subscription, that's actually helpful. That's actually useful.” [01:32]

Creative Digital Subscription Ideas

Nguyen suggests a variety of digital subscriptions that cater to different hobbies and needs, making them as cherished as tangible gifts:

• Entertainment & Storage: Netflix, Apple credit for iCloud storage, Google App Store credits.
• Travel Assistance: Timeshifter app to prevent jet lag for frequent travelers.
• Language Learning: Babbel offers bite-sized lessons in 14 different languages.
• Productivity: A subscription to a password manager like 1Password, coupled with personal assistance in setting it up, adds a unique and invaluable touch.

“My favorite digital gift to give, which I give my loved ones every year, is a subscription to a password manager. I know that's not very sexy, but I do offer my services, which is the most valuable part of this gift.” [03:09]

Avoiding the Impersonal Feel of Digital Gifts

To make digital gifts feel more special, Nguyen recommends pairing them with physical items related to the subscription:

“You should print out your gift card or buy a physical gift card and wrap it like you would a new pair of skates or a new bike and give a little fun little side accessory along with your gift card.” [04:22]

Examples include:

• A yoga towel with a yoga app subscription.
• A fresh baguette with online French lessons.
• A tub of popcorn with a streaming service subscription.

This approach bridges the gap between digital convenience and the tactile joy of unwrapping a present, ensuring the gift feels personalized and thoughtful.

OpenAI’s GPT-5: Delays and Implications

The episode's main focus centers on the significant delays surrounding OpenAI's much-anticipated GPT-5 model. Originally expected to be a groundbreaking advancement in artificial intelligence, the rollout of GPT-5 has been postponed, raising questions about the future direction of OpenAI.

Expectations for GPT-5

GPT-5, codenamed "Orion," is envisioned to surpass its predecessor, GPT-4O, by offering enhanced capabilities such as:

• Advanced Task Automation: Ability to book flights, appointments, and restaurant reservations autonomously.
• Improved Predictive Abilities: Anticipating user needs with greater accuracy.
• Reduced Error Rates: Minimizing mistakes in outputs across various applications.

“Some people think that it's going to be magic... there are very high expectations for this model to do any of these things, but just should generally. Wow.” [06:41]

Reasons Behind the Delay

Deepa Sitharaman outlines several complex factors contributing to GPT-5's delay:

1. Scaling Challenges:

   • The traditional approach of scaling up involves feeding more data into the model to enhance its capabilities.
   • However, there's a significant disparity between the projected model size and the available high-quality data, limiting the effectiveness of this strategy.

2. Data Acquisition and Quality:

   • OpenAI faces difficulties in sourcing diverse and high-quality data necessary for training GPT-5.
   • Synthetic data generation, while a potential solution, poses risks such as model deterioration or "model collapse" if inappropriate data types are introduced.

3. Talent Acquisition:

   • The company is actively recruiting not just software engineers and mathematicians but also theoretical physicists to tackle complex problems and contribute innovative solutions.
   • This specialized talent is critical for developing and refining GPT-5's architecture and functionalities.

4. Defining Model Objectives:

   • There is ambiguity regarding GPT-5's intended capabilities and benchmarks.
   • Unlike evaluating coding and math problems with clear right or wrong answers, assessing the overall performance and "vibes" of GPT-5 remains subjective and challenging.

“How do people at OpenAI gauge whether or not what they're producing is worthy of the GPT5 moniker? And for a lot of them outside of the evaluations for those subjects and a few others, it's gut, your gut feeling.” [07:17]

Cost Implications

The financial strain of developing GPT-5 is a significant concern:

• Training Costs: GPT-4's training cost exceeded $100 million, with future models like GPT-5 projected to surpass $1 billion.
• Investment vs. Return: The high costs necessitate timely and successful model releases to justify the investment and sustain OpenAI's business model.

“Future AI models are expected to push past $1 billion.” [11:36]

Business Impact of the Delay

The postponement of GPT-5 could have several implications for OpenAI:

• Competitive Edge: Delays may allow competitors to catch up or even surpass OpenAI in AI advancements.
• Investor Confidence: Prolonged development timelines and escalating costs might affect investor trust and future funding opportunities.
• Market Position: OpenAI's reputation as a leader in AI could be challenged if GPT-5 fails to meet high expectations upon eventual release.

“Is it going to be that thing? That's the open question. And it isn't clear how the business will respond if it fails at creating the next order of magnitude.” [12:32]

Conclusion from Deepa Sitharaman

While OpenAI continues to strive towards enhancing its AI models, the path to GPT-5's completion is fraught with technical, financial, and strategic challenges. The success or failure of GPT-5 will significantly influence OpenAI's standing in the rapidly evolving AI landscape and its ability to innovate sustainably.

Closing Remarks

Danny Lewis wraps up the episode by highlighting upcoming content and the holiday schedule, ensuring listeners stay informed about future tech trends and analyses. The episode provides a comprehensive overview of both the practical aspects of digital gifting and the intricate challenges faced by one of the leading entities in AI development.

Produced by Julie Chang with supervising producer Kathryn Millsap. For more insights and updates, stay tuned to WSJ Tech News Briefing.