What Could Quantum Computing Actually Do?

Summary

WSJ Tech News Briefing: What Could Quantum Computing Actually Do?

Release Date: February 25, 2025

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Introduction

In the February 25th episode of the Wall Street Journal’s "Tech News Briefing," host Charlotte Gartenberg delves into the burgeoning field of quantum computing. Following significant announcements from tech giants like Microsoft and Google, which highlighted breakthroughs in quantum chip design and the creation of new states of matter, quantum computing has captured the attention of both researchers and investors alike. To unpack the complexities and potential of this revolutionary technology, Gartenberg invites WSJ reporter Asa Fitch to provide an in-depth exploration of quantum computing’s capabilities and future implications.

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Understanding Quantum Computing

Gartenberg opens the discussion by seeking a foundational understanding of quantum computers. Asa Fitch responds by contrasting quantum computers with classical computers:

"A quantum computer uses something called a qubit, and a qubit is a bit different from a bit. It's not a regular on-off switch. It can have an on state or an off state, but it can be sort of a mixture of both of those things at the same time, which creates some interesting features." (01:27)

Fitch elaborates that this ability allows quantum computers to process and simulate vast amounts of information simultaneously, enabling them to perform complex calculations at unprecedented speeds. He uses an analogy to illustrate this capability:

"Think of it as like you're trying to unlock a door and you need to find the right combination or whatever. And if you have a system that could try a bunch of things at the same time, you'd get there faster than if you had to go through every single iteration." (02:30)

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Key Players in Quantum Computing

When asked about other companies investing in quantum technology, Fitch highlights both established and emerging players:

"IBM has explored quantum for a very long time. You have a bunch of smaller companies like IonQ, D-Wave, etc., that have come up in recent years." (02:36)

These companies are driven by the promise of quantum computing to revolutionize fields such as drug discovery, complex simulations, and energy storage solutions. The potential to create better batteries or discover new drugs underscores the broad applicability and transformative potential of quantum technology.

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Quantum vs. Classical Supercomputers

Gartenberg probes the distinctive advantages of quantum computers over traditional supercomputers. Fitch cites drug discovery as a prime example:

"One of the big ones is drug discovery. You're trying to figure out combinations of proteins and other things that result in drugs that cure serious diseases... The promise with quantum is that it could just take much less time to figure out these simulations to solve these problems and thus to create new drugs." (03:52)

He references Google's staggering comparison of computational speeds:

"Last year Google said it took 24 septillion years for a regular computer to solve an equation that took their quantum computer five minutes or something like that to solve." (03:53)

This comparison underscores the immense computational power that quantum computers could harness, vastly outpacing current capabilities.

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Microsoft’s Breakthrough: A New State of Matter

A significant portion of the episode centers on Microsoft's recent announcement regarding the creation of a quantum chip that utilizes a novel state of matter. Gartenberg seeks clarity on this development:

"Microsoft researchers said they created a chip that leverages a new state of matter, not a liquid, a solid, or a gas. Fill me in on this, because I don't quite understand." (05:14)

Fitch explains that Microsoft claims to have developed a "topological superconductor," a material that could potentially allow for the scaling up of qubits to unprecedented numbers:

"They were talking about a million, potentially a billion qubits on a single chip, which would be absolutely unheard of." (05:26)

However, Fitch tempers expectations by noting skepticism within the scientific community:

"There's a lot of skepticism about this. If it pans out, it could be big for quantum going forward." (05:53)

He emphasizes that while the research is promising, transitioning from a scientific breakthrough to a commercially viable product remains a significant hurdle.

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Evaluating the Evidence and Viability

Gartenberg inquires about the evidence supporting Microsoft's claims. Fitch points to the publication of their research in the prestigious journal Nature but acknowledges ongoing debates among physicists:

"Some physicists have questioned the viability of these claims... How do you take that science project and make it a commercially viable quantum computer that anybody off the street could use? That's the real question." (06:16)

This highlights the challenges of moving from experimental research to practical, widespread applications.

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Potential Risks of Quantum Computing

The conversation shifts to the implications of widespread quantum computing adoption. Fitch identifies a primary concern related to cybersecurity:

"A very good quantum computer could potentially crack a lot of today's encryption, which would be bad for people who want to encrypt data and privacy." (08:12)

However, he offers a silver lining:

"The good news there is that people are well aware of this problem and there's still a lot of time to solve the problem before it really becomes an issue. There's a lot of preparation going on to develop encryption methods that are, quote, unquote, quantum proof." (08:12)

This reassures listeners that proactive measures are being taken to mitigate potential threats posed by quantum computing advancements.

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Future Prospects and Business Impact

Gartenberg asks Fitch to speculate on when quantum computing might start delivering tangible business benefits. Fitch presents a spectrum of opinions:

"For quantum to become as ubiquitous as regular computing is, it might never happen. But for it to become a sort of useful scientific tool that people use in business... on the optimistic side, people would say in the next several years. And then if you ask the pessimists, they'd say the next couple of decades." (08:50)

He acknowledges the rapid development of quantum technologies while also noting the substantial journey ahead before achieving widespread utility.

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Conclusion

As the episode wraps up, Gartenberg summarizes the discussion, emphasizing the early yet promising stages of quantum computing. While breakthroughs like Microsoft’s new quantum chip signify important strides, experts like Asa Fitch caution that the technology is still in its nascent phase, with commercial viability and widespread application possibly years away. Nonetheless, the potential for quantum computing to revolutionize industries—from pharmaceuticals to cybersecurity—keeps it at the forefront of technological innovation and investment.

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Notable Quotes

• Asa Fitch on Quantum Bits:

  "A quantum computer uses something called a qubit, and a qubit is a bit different from a bit. It's not a regular on-off switch. It can have an on state or an off state, but it can be sort of a mixture of both of those things at the same time, which creates some interesting features." (01:27)

• Asa Fitch on Quantum Advantage:

  "Last year Google said it took 24 septillion years for a regular computer to solve an equation that took their quantum computer five minutes or something like that to solve." (03:53)

• Asa Fitch on Microsoft's Quantum Chip:

  "They were talking about a million, potentially a billion qubits on a single chip, which would be absolutely unheard of." (05:26)

• Asa Fitch on Quantum Threats and Solutions:

  "The good news there is that people are well aware of this problem and there's still a lot of time to solve the problem before it really becomes an issue." (08:12)

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Production Credits

Today's summary was produced based on the transcript provided by Charlotte Gartenberg and WSJ reporter Asa Fitch. The original episode was produced by Jess Jupiter with supervising producer Kathryn Millsop.

Transcript

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[Charlotte Gartenberg]

Welcome to Tech News briefing. It's Tuesday, February 25th. I'm Charlotte Gartenberg for the Wall Street Journal. Last week, Microsoft researchers announced an approach to quantum computing that the company claimed involved the creation of a new state of matter, not liquid, gas or solid. That followed Google in December touting its own breakthrough in quantum chip design. Both scientific advances were followed by a surge quantum related stock prices. But what is quantum computing and what exactly are researchers and investors betting it can do? Here to give us a primer on quantum computing and take us through some of the potential real world applications of the tech is WSJ reporter Asa Fitch. All right, Asa, we've talked about this before on the show, but it's worth recapping for listeners given the recent news. What is a quantum computer?

[Asa Fitch]

So a quantum computer is in a way like a normal computer that you and I use every day. Those computers use something called bits. There's a bunch of little on off switches that when you combine them together, do different things like add things up or tell your computer what to display on a screen. But a quantum computer uses something called a qubit, and a qubit is a bit different from a bit. It's not a regular on off switch. It can have an on state or an off state, but it can be sort of a mixture of both of those things at the same time, which creates some interesting features. Because of the way these things interact with each other, they can contain more information at a single point in time. So they can figure out all the possibilities for something because it's able to do this kind of fast calculation and fast combination of things and simulation of things, it can do that much, much faster than your average computer these days. Think of it as like you're trying to unlock a door and you need to find the right combination or whatever. And if you have a system that could try a bunch of things at the same time, you'd get there faster than if you had to go through every single iteration.

[Charlotte Gartenberg]

We mentioned Google and Microsoft. What are some of the other companies exploring Quantum computing.

[Asa Fitch]

IBM has explored quantum for a very long time. You have a bunch of smaller companies like IonQ, D Wave, ET cetera that have come up in recent years. Some of those are listed companies. These days a lot of people seem promise in quantum computing. They see it as something that could lead to new, better drugs, for example, things like physical simulations of the world that are quite complex and so you'd have like better batteries, for example. That's one of the ideas people have that it could do. So there are a lot of great applications. So there are a lot of companies that have come up to try to harness this thing.

[Charlotte Gartenberg]

So we talked a little bit about how it works. But in order to help us with scale, what can quantum do that a regular supercomputer can't?

[Asa Fitch]

One of the big ones is drug discovery. You're trying to figure out combinations of proteins and other things like that that result in drugs that cure serious diseases. You got to try a lot of things, right? And so trying a lot of things means in a computational sense, you got to simulate a lot of things, a lot of variables moving at the same time. And there have been, of course, for many, many years efforts to do this using regular computers. And those have been successful, but they take a long time. The promise with quantum is that it could just take much less time to figure out these simulations to solve these problems and thus to create new drugs.

[Charlotte Gartenberg]

How much less time?

[Asa Fitch]

If you look at some of the comparisons on quantum equations and how long it takes current computers to solve them versus quantum computers to solve them in one benchmark, last year Google said it took 24 septillion years for a regular computer to solve an equation that took their quantum computer five minutes or something like that to solve. So you get a sense of what the scale is when you hear something like that.

[Charlotte Gartenberg]

So 10, septillion is a 10 with 24 zeros. So a long time. Coming up, Microsoft researchers say they created a chip that leverages a new state of matter. What it is and what it could mean for the future of quantum computing. That's after the break.

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[Asa Fitch]

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[Charlotte Gartenberg]

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[Charlotte Gartenberg]

So last week, Microsoft researchers said they created a chip that leverages a new state of matter, not a liquid, a solid, or a gas. Fill me in on this, because I don't quite understand.

[Asa Fitch]

The basic idea is they claim to have created what they call a topological superconductor. It's basically a little tiny thing that allows them to do quantum computing in a way that hadn't been possible in the past, if you believe what they've claimed. And they say that they're actually able to scale up the qubits and make them quite large, quite fast. They were talking about a million, potentially a billion qubits on a single chip, which would be absolutely unheard of. Today's most advanced quantum computers have numbers of qubits in the thousands. And that's really pushing it above a thousand qubits these days is pretty big. So if, and there's a big if, and there's a lot of skepticism about this. If it pans out, it could be big for quantum going forward.

[Charlotte Gartenberg]

What are these researchers basing this on? What's the evidence they're using here?

[Asa Fitch]

They've published their paper in Nature, of course, the famous scientific journal. But some physicists have questioned the viability of these claims. The big quantum computer being created out of these things, you know, it's part of the natural cycle of scientific discovery and the testing of the claims that people make. It's certainly not a sure thing in a couple of dimensions. I mean, there's questions about their research and, like, whether it actually is going to do what they say it can do. And then there's the question of how do you actually practically do this right now? This is a science project. It's not a real thing. How do you take that science project and make it a commercially viable quantum computer that anybody off the street could come and use? That's the real question. And we're very, very far from there being something like that.

[Charlotte Gartenberg]

Why is this new state of matter important to quantum computing?

[Asa Fitch]

It's basically just a lot of engineering that creates a new state of matter that's able to do things with quantum bits in their claims, I guess, that we weren't able to do before. You're chilling things to absolute zero. Many quantum strategies involve, or almost all of them really involve, cooling something to near absolute zero to stabilize things and allow them to measure things on a sort of quantum level. There's a lot of noise that comes out when you start to scale up a quantum computer with many qubits and that's been a big issue for people. And they have confidence that they can reduce those errors and really make it work. They're able to zero in on a quantum bit and use microwaves to measure them and figure out what state they're in. I mean, that's the big problem with quantum. Like you have a quantum bit, you have to then measure it and figure out what it is. Is it a zero? Is it a one? What is it? So they figured out that bit as well, and they talked about that. It's a lot of technical stuff, but there's a lot of promise there, potentially for the industry.

[Charlotte Gartenberg]

Let's say it's successful and becomes commercially viable. What are the potential dangers of successful and widespread quantum computing based on your reporting?

[Asa Fitch]

One is that a very good quantum computer could potentially crack a lot of today's encryption, which would be bad for people who want to encrypt data and, you know, privacy. But, I mean, the good news there is that people are well aware of this problem and there's still a lot of time to solve the problem before it really becomes an issue. There's a lot of preparation going on to develop encryption methods that are, quote, unquote, quantum proof. So if there were a big quantum computer, it still wouldn't be able to solve that kind of encryption or break that encryption.

[Charlotte Gartenberg]

All right, it sounds like it's still early days for this tech, but how soon can we start seeing some of the business potential from quantum computing?

[Asa Fitch]

For quantum to become as ubiquitous as regular computing is, it might never happen. But for it to become a sort of useful scientific tool that people use in business, you ask different people, they have different views on it. But on the optimistic side, people would say in the next several years. And then if you ask the pessimists, they'd say the next couple of decades, potentially. It's clear that more and more powerful quantum computers are being developed, but it could be a long time.

[Charlotte Gartenberg]

That was WSJ reporter Asa Fitch. And that's it for Tech News Briefing. Today's show was produced by Jess Jupiter with supervising producer Kathryn Millsop. I'm Charlotte Gartenberg for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back this afternoon with T B Tech Minute. Thanks for listening.