What Tesla’s IPO Can Teach Us About SpaceX

Summary

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WSJ Tech News Briefing

Episode Summary: "What Tesla’s IPO Can Teach Us About SpaceX"

Date: June 12, 2026
Host: Imani Moiz
Guests: Becky Peterson (WSJ reporter), Al Root (Associate Editor, Barron's), Tim Higgins (WSJ columnist & author of Power Play: Tesla, Elon Musk, and the Bet of the Century)

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Overview

This episode examines the extraordinary lead-up to SpaceX’s historic IPO, comparing it to the transformative Tesla IPO in 2010. The panel explores what lessons investors and the public can draw from Tesla's rise, the unique challenges and hype surrounding SpaceX, and the critical role played by Elon Musk's ambition and public persona.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Comparing the Tesla and SpaceX IPOs

• Tesla’s 2010 IPO:
  • Priced at $17/share, valued at $1.7B. No profits yet, only the Roadster for sale, Model S in development.
  • Met with Wall Street skepticism, but Musk’s vision and personal salesmanship impressed a select group of long-term investors.
  • Quote (Elon Musk, Bloomberg 2010):

    “It’s just worth noting, the smartest money in the world is betting on Tesla.” (02:09, C)

• SpaceX 2026 IPO:
  • Valued at $1.77T, about 1,000 times larger than Tesla’s IPO.
  • The biggest tech company ever to go public by market cap.
  • SpaceX is mature (24 years old), already cash-flow positive due to Starlink.
  • Stratospheric ambitions: self-sustaining Mars colony, orbital data centers with AI capability.

2. Past and Present: Company Trajectories & Context

• Tesla Today:
  • “Its big goals now are to build autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots.” (05:32, D, Becky Peterson)
• SpaceX’s Vision:
  • Huge total addressable market (TAM) of nearly $30T, including ambitious AI/data center projections and Mars colonization.
  • “They’re telling us they have this total addressable market…what they think is the largest ever discovered.” (06:52, D, Becky Peterson)
  • Most projections are speculative; Starlink is the current revenue driver.

3. Elon Musk’s Role & Influence

• Early Days:
  • Musk was hands-on with prospects, personally tweaking documents and pitching investors (test drives for Tesla).
  • “One of his real superpowers has been to convince customers and investors to go along with him.” (04:21, C, Tim Higgins)
• Now:
  • Musk’s personality, risk-taking, and polarizing public presence are even more pronounced.
  • “A hero to some, a villain to others…he has done stuff with his companies that a lot of people thought was impossible. And that is very inspiring.” (13:49, C, Tim Higgins)
  • Controversies don’t seem to slow him down, even during big IPO moments.

4. Investor Expectations & Market Hype

• Tesla’s IPO Pop:
  • Shares rose over 40% on day one (2010).
• SpaceX IPO Anticipation:
  • Large allocation for retail investors may create volatility.
  • “I expect fireworks. I think a lot of people are looking to see what happens.” (08:12, C, Tim Higgins)
  • On Market Impact: If the IPO doesn’t surge ~20%+, “the entire market has a problem.” (09:58, A, Al Root)

5. Valuation: Justified or Bubble?

• Is SpaceX Worth $1.77T?
  • Al Root (Barron’s):

    “Barons’ official position is it’s worth close to 1.2, so we called it worth 90 a share, 1.2 trillion.” (11:45, A, Al Root)

    • This assumes massive Starlink growth and realization of ambitious AI/data center plans.
    • “What is anything worth, really?” (11:33, C, Tim Higgins)
  • Becky Peterson:

    “It’s not fundamentals that its revenue today really supports it. But people love Elon stocks…he overperforms on the stock market.” (12:33, D, Becky Peterson)

  • Much of SpaceX’s value is premised on unproven future products (AI dominance, Mars colony).

6. The "Elon Premium"

• Musk’s Impact on Valuation:
  • “It’s all about Musk. Wall Street, to a person, always says, Tesla is Musk, Musk is Tesla. Just take that and apply it to SpaceX.” (15:48, A, Al Root)
  • “There's definitely a Musk premium and neither company has named a successor…” (16:26, D, Becky Peterson)
  • SpaceX governance gives Musk near-total control; the company’s future is inseparable from him.

7. What’s Next and Key Uncertainties

• Will SpaceX’s ambitions be realized?
  • Market’s faith is tied to Musk’s ability to deliver future breakthroughs.
• Potential effect on broader markets:
  • “I want to see the impact on other stocks, whether they be wireless, telecom, whether it be space stocks, whether it be other AI stocks...it’s a very important event for the market.” (17:38, A, Al Root)
• Panelists’ Watchlist:
  • Becky: Will be “at the Nasdaq bright and early to see who’s going in and out…also watching Tesla stock,” given apparent pre-IPO selloffs. (17:00, D)
  • Tim: Watching SpaceX share performance over the first year. (17:31, C)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Investor Skepticism, Tesla 2010
  “There was incredible skepticism that you could build a profitable, attractive electric vehicle…Tesla really was buying into this idea that electric vehicles could work someday.” (03:29, A, Al Root)

• On SpaceX’s TAM
  “That includes a small amount, just $1.6 trillion for its existing Starlink business…then $26.5 trillion for AI. This ambiguous idea that they’re going to be able to just dominate in the field of AI…” (07:28, D, Becky Peterson)

• On the ‘Musk Effect’
  “Not everybody has the ability to convince people that the TAM is $28 trillion. And for people to nod their head like it’s even possible.” (15:48, A, Al Root)

• Public Perception of Musk
  “It’s been a rollercoaster...a hero to some, a villain to others...he is somebody who has done stuff with his companies that a lot of people thought was impossible.” (13:49, C, Tim Higgins)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tesla’s IPO context and Musk’s pitch: 00:15–02:25
• SpaceX vision and size differences: 02:42–04:17
• Musk’s evolution and selling power: 04:21–05:24
• Tesla’s transformation since IPO: 05:32–05:55
• SpaceX’s TAM & pitch: 06:52–08:05
• Tesla IPO stock pop vs. SpaceX anticipation: 08:12–08:44
• Difficulties in repeating Tesla’s success: 08:55–09:58
• Speculative revenue projections: 10:17–10:47
• Panel’s valuations: 11:23–12:33
• The “Musk premium” and his unreplicable influence: 15:48–16:56
• Panel’s IPO watchlists: 17:00–17:56

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Tone and Style

The discussion is measured and analytical, mixing healthy skepticism of market exuberance with respect for Musk’s historical ability to defy expectations. Panelists are candid about the leap-of-faith required to support SpaceX’s sky-high valuation—and universally acknowledge the outsize role Musk’s personality and reputation play.

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Conclusion

The SpaceX IPO isn’t just a financial event—it’s a cultural and technological milestone. Drawing on Tesla’s history, the episode underscores that much of SpaceX’s valuation (and risk) is tied to Musk’s grand narrative and the hope that the future will resemble his vision. The market’s next moves—and Musk’s continued showmanship—will determine whether SpaceX can live up to the astronomical hype.

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Hey TNB listeners, have you ever seen a post on social media that you thought was real, only to later realize it was AI generated? We want to hear from you. What did you see? Why did you believe it? How did you feel? Afterwards, shoot us an email to tnbsj.com or leave us a voicemail at 212-416-2236. That's 212-416-2236 or if you're a listener on Spotify, drop us a comment in this episode. You may hear yourself on the show and we may reach out to hear more about your experience. We hope to hear from you. Now onto the show. Welcome to Tech News briefing. It's Friday, June 12th. I'm Imani Moiz for the Wall Street Journal. Today we're starting with a bell. That's the sound of the NASDAQ opening bell one June morning nearly 16 years ago, the last time Elon Musk took a company public. On June 29, 2010, Tesla made its debut in an IP priced at $17 a share at a valuation of roughly $1.7 billion. In just a matter of hours, we expect another Musk company, SpaceX, to launch on the Nasdaq at a valuation of $1.77 trillion, about a thousand times Tesla. When Tesla went public, the company hadn't delivered many cars. It had just one model for sale, the Roadster. Its second vehicle, the Model S, was set to begin production in 2012. Tesla had never turned a profit, but was pitching itself as the future of the auto industry nonetheless. Some Wall street analysts were skeptical about the company's financials, but Musk had an answer for them. Here's what he told Bloomberg at the time.

[C]

When people see who's investing in ipo, it's the smartest, most long term thinking investors in the market. It's really an amazing set of investors. So I think it's just worth not the smartest money in the world is betting on Tesla.

[B]

Today Tesla is worth well over a trillion dollars and some consider its IPO to be one of the most successful in modern history. Now Musk is betting with SpaceX that he can replicate that success with an even bigger company and stratospheric ambitions.

[C]

Where we're going to develop the technology necessary to take humanity and civilization and Life as we know it to another planet for the first time in the four and a half billion year history of Earth.

[B]

So what can Tesla's IPO teach us about what to expect from SpaceX's debut? And will investors be able to separate the company from the man behind it? To help us unpack those questions, we're joined today by WSJ reporter Becky Peterson, associate editor of Barron's, Al Root, and WSJ columnist Tim Higgins, who also wrote a book on Tesla and Elon Musk called Power Play. Welcome to the show, everyone. So, Al, Tesla went public over a decade ago. What was the mood like around the company at that time and what were investors buying into?

[A]

I mean, the size was infinitely smaller than SpaceX and there was incredible skepticism that you could build a profitable, attractive electric vehicle. You know, you're competing with EV1, Nissan, Leafs, things like that. Still wasn't profitable. Battery prices, you need so much scale in automotive businesses. So the size was something that is completely different. Elon's reputation is something completely different. It really was buying into this idea of electric vehicles could work someday. So just a completely different vibe. This is 1.8 trillion. Elon is Elon. This is going to make him a trillionaire as a percentage of the market. SpaceX is much larger than Tesla ever was. So it is completely different.

[B]

Tim, you spent a lot of time covering Elon Musk. What was he like back then?

[C]

Well, he had a lot to prove. SpaceX was this radical idea. Tesla was a radical idea. SolarCity was out there. He was invested in that. He had a little bit of a chip on his shoulder and he wanted to prove that he could change the world. Tesla, from an investor standpoint seemed like a rather risky gambit, betting on Tesla at that time. But he had the vision. He had this vision for what the car could become. And one of his real superpowers has been to convince customers and investors to go along with him. And so they had the Roadster and they were struggling to sell that, but they had the idea of what the Model S was going to become. They needed the money from the IPO to get to that point. The money was super important, but it was going to be many years and many billions of dollars more to get to the point where the company was sustainable in a lot of ways. It's kind of a similar situation with SpaceX. They need a lot of cash to feed the kind of cash eating dreams that he has.

[B]

It's not just Elon who changed. Tesla is also a completely different company. Becky can you walk us through how it's changed since then.

[D]

So Tesla's big goals right now are to build autonomous vehicles and to build humanoid robots. When it first started, of course, humans were driving the cars. Elon's been talking for a long time about wanting to have his full self driving software to drive these cars around town, but it's only recently that they've been anywhere close to having a product like that on the road.

[B]

Tim, in your book, you wrote about how in the run up to Tesla's ipo, Musk was very involved. He spent a lot of time arguing about specific phrasing in the investor prospectus, and he gave investors test drives as part of the roadshow. Can you tell us about what that time was like?

[C]

It gets back to one of the key insights that Musk had around Tesla, and that was if you could get behind the steering wheel of an electric car, these cars could sell themselves. And so that was one of the key things in selling the idea of Tesla in those early days around the narrative of the product. One of the big things about the Model S, when it would come out, was it felt like an iPhone on wheels. And there was a lot of excitement about a car that just felt and looked totally different in the lead up

[B]

to its IPO, SpaceX seems to be presenting a much grander vision than it sounds like Tesla did. Becky, can you talk about how the company is pitching itself?

[D]

The best way to think about it is what Elon is being measured against. And he has these two pay packages. The first, which in order to get, he will have to have a sustainable colony on Mars. And then the second one is to build the orbital data centers. So the colony in Mars, we don't know yet how much money that is going to bring in for SpaceX, but they're telling us that they have this total addressable market that's almost $30 trillion. They call it what they think is like the largest total addressable market ever discovered. It's really an extraordinary number.

[B]

And.

[D]

But when you look at the details, that includes a small amount, just 1.6 trillion for its existing Starlink business, which is its biggest revenue driver today, and then a few billion dollars for launching things into space, and then $26.5 trillion for AI. This ambiguous idea that they're going to be able to just dominate in the field of AI through these data centers and through the chatbot Grok and whatever else might be developed using those technologies.

[B]

So, Tim, shares of Tesla jumped more than 40% on its first day of trading. Are you expecting the same for SpaceX?

[C]

Well, that's the big question. I think there's a lot of excitement on what it's going to do. One of the differences about the SpaceX IPO versus a typical IPO is just the large number of shares set aside for retail investors. And the company has warned that that could cause some volatility in the early days of trading because there's going to be a lot of people out there with their shares. There's going to be a lot of people potentially looking to get into the company. I expect fireworks. I think a lot of people are looking to the day to see what happens.

[B]

Al, in a piece for Barron's, you called Tesla's IPO one of the greatest ever. You also wrote that it would be very difficult for SpaceX to repeat its success. Why is that?

[A]

Oh, I mean, it's just relative size. So if you have similar performance over 20 years, you're multiples of the global GDP if you're SpaceX. So that's sort of impossible at this point. But Tesla was only a few years old when it IPOed. SpaceX is 24 years old. I mean it is an old and mature company, relatively speaking. And I know there's like so many numbers floating, but it has been cash flow positive for a number of years based solely on the Starlink business. And now they have AI dreams and dreams about starship, which is very important to drive the cost down to reach orbit, so you can't have necessarily a repeat. Now if you talk to the Cathie woods of the world and Ron Barons of the world, they see similar outcomes, multi trillion dollar market cap gains over the coming five to 10 years. But those are sort of the ultra bullish scenarios. But back to the original question, right? It's basically impossible to say what's going to happen on day one of trading just because all of the stuff we just talked about, the retail shareholders, the size as the largest IPO ever, I would it better be up about 20% or else the entire market has a problem.

[B]

And Becky, just thinking about something you said earlier. We don't know how much money SpaceX could make from its colony on Mars, but we also don't even know if having a colony on Mars is possible. Right. How much of SpaceX's potential value comes from businesses that already exist versus things that investors can only hope it'll do one day?

[D]

Well, going back to the Tam, which is such a big deal in this SpaceX prospectus, most of it is from these sort of like undetermined AI products but some of them do exist already. Like they think they're going to have billions of dollars in digital advertising. That's something that we can conceptualize. Billions of dollars in subscriptions, we just don't yet know. Subscriptions to what? Advertising on what? Maybe it will be billboards on Mars.

[B]

Are you interested in buying shares of SpaceX? If you're a listener on Spotify, tell us why or why not in the comments. Coming up, what does our Expert panel think SpaceX is actually worth? That's after the break.

[A]

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[B]

And we're back. I want to put this next question to the whole group. Tim, let's start with you. Is SpaceX actually worth $1.77 trillion?

[C]

Well, I guess if you can find enough people to buy the shares, you've got some willing buyers there. What's anything worth really? Others would argue it should be worth less. I guess I'm not one to say one way or the other.

[A]

Baron's official position is it's worth close to 1.2, so we called it worth 90 a share. 1.2 trillion. You have to believe a couple of things. You have to believe one, Starlink will continue to grow and two, you have to believe AI data centers in space are a thing and enabled by lower costs from a successful starship rocket. If you believe all of those things, sure, why not? What is anything worth? But you could see cash flows supporting that level of valuation. You also need to believe that all of these AI numbers, the Anthropic and Google AI compute deals, the Oracle OpenAI deal, that the hundreds of billions of spending by the hyperscalers will turn into revenues one day. You have to believe that. But if that's not true, we all have problems.

[D]

I don't know that it's fundamentals that its revenue today really supports it. But people love Elon stocks and Tesla until this week really has gone up a lot. He just he overperforms on the stock market. It's not really about what revenue he has or even the revenue coming in the next year. That said, I'm really curious how the whole stock market performs and this is a very, very high valuation. Is that reflective of a bubble? That's sort of what I'm looking to right now. Not is SpaceX overvalued? But is the who Market overvalued.

[B]

Tesla has a certain fan base among consumers and also investors. Do you expect SpaceX will have the same support?

[A]

Yeah, everybody will have an opinion on this, but roughly half the stock available in Tesla for trading is held by smaller retail shareholders. They are, my words, fanatical. They will continue to support Tesla and they will also be an important shareholder base for SpaceX. There is an Elon effect out there, and that retail shareholder base is definitely part of it.

[B]

Turning back to the man in charge of all this, we've talked a bit already about how Musk has changed over the years, but how has the public's perception of Musk morphed over that same period? Tim, can you speak to us a little bit about that? And why does that matter?

[C]

Well, it's been a rollercoaster for Musk's reputation. 2010, a lot of people didn't know who Elon Musk was. He was a big name in Silicon Valley and among tech people, but he was not the celebrity that he would become. The success of Tesla, and I would also say some of the drama around the company as it tried to grow and chase some of his dreams, helped populate an impression of him around the world. So hugely important to a lot of people, and then became a little bit more controversial as he turned into politics, his detour into Washington and the White House, these sorts of things. A hero to some, a villain to others. But at the kind of end of the day, he is somebody who has done stuff with his companies that a lot of people thought was impossible. And that is very inspiring. And so SpaceX is the next chapter for a lot of people. Now as it goes public, it becomes more well known to a lot more people. They have the opportunity to get on board as investors helps define the next kind of chapter in his legacy.

[D]

I think I'll add that Elon hasn't been modifying his behavior at all in anticipation of this ipo. And in fact, this week he's been causing a stir in the UK because he's been posting a lot on X about a crime that happened that has led to some riots around immigration and race in Belfast. And there's politicians in the UK who are calling him out. Right now. He's doing this while his bankers are trying to sell this IPO and while his executives are flying to New York to get ready to ring the bell at the nasdaq. So he is not really trying to edit his public behavior at all in response to all of the public attention.

[B]

If SpaceX were run by someone Other than Elon Musk, would investors value the company the same way?

[A]

Nope. I mean, listen, it's not a hard answer. I mean, we've talked about it and we talked around it. I mean, I built basically half my career on trying to figure out what the Elon premium is. It's large. Not everybody has the ability to convince people that The TAM is 28 trillion. And for people to nod their head like it's even possible. And this is the funny thing, right? Gwynne Shotwell's wonderful SpaceX has many, many wonderful engineers. Tesla has some wonderful engineers. It's all about Musk. Wall street, to a person always says, tesla is Musk, Musk is Tesla. Just take that and apply it to SpaceX. SpaceX is Musk. Musk is SpaceX. It really can't be run by anybody else.

[D]

I think there's definitely a Musk premium and neither company has named a successor for if and when Musk eventually steps down. So I think that they probably would agree with that.

[A]

I think it's also worth pointing out on that. Look at the governance of SpaceX. With Musk's voting control over the board, it is close to unprecedented, the absolute iron grip he has over this organization. So it is only Musk.

[B]

Last question. What will you all be watching for as the company makes its debut?

[D]

I am going to be at the NASDAQ bright and early to see who's going in and out and just to try to understand if there's retail investor interest in what's actually happening down the street in New York City. And I'm also going to be watching the Tesla stock. It's already been down quite a bit this week. I'm not really sure. Is it people selling their shares to make money to buy SpaceX? Is it people responding to something else in the market? It's not clear, but Tesla's already hurting a little bit.

[C]

I'll be excited to see where the share price goes for the next few weeks, months, year. It'll be very exciting to watch.

[A]

Yeah, just to add to that, I want to see the impact on other stocks, whether they be wireless, telecom, whether it be space stocks, whether it be other AI stocks. I mean, it's a very important event for the market given OpenAI and anthropic plan to go public later this year. So there is an endless number of

[B]

things to watch and we will be watching. And back in your feed soon with more on the SpaceX IPO and all the rest of the tech news you need to know about, thanks to our panel, WSJ reporter Becky Peterson, associate editor of Barron's, Al Root and WSJ columnist Tim Higgins. We reached out to Tesla and SpaceX for comment but did not hear back in time for publication. And that's it for Tech News Briefing. If you're a listener on Spotify, be sure to leave us a comment. Today's show was produced by Julie Chang. I'm your host Imani Moiz. Additional support this week from Anthony Bansi, Jessica Fenton and Michael Lavalle wrote our theme music. Our supervising producer is Katie Ferguson. Our development producer is Aisha Al Muslim and Chris Zinsley is the deputy editor of audio for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back later this morning with TNB Tech Minute. Thanks for listening.

[A]

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