WSJ Tech News Briefing

Episode: "What to Expect From Tech IPOs in 2026"

Date: December 19, 2025
Host: Bell Lin
Guests: Dan Gallagher (WSJ Heard on the Street columnist), Corey Driebush (WSJ finance reporter)

Episode Overview

In this episode, the team at the Wall Street Journal discusses the resurgence of tech IPOs anticipated for 2026 after several years of volatility. The show starts by dissecting Micron’s blockbuster financial results—a signal that the AI-driven chip boom could soon translate into higher prices for everyday electronics. The main segment then explores the rapidly heating IPO market: why heavy hitters like SpaceX are (finally) going public, what’s driving this new IPO wave, and the stakes for investors and the broader market if these launches fall flat.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Micron Profits and the Memory Chip Squeeze (00:35 – 05:13)

• Micron’s Historic Quarter:
  Dan Gallagher explains that Micron posted record revenue (up 57%) and operating earnings, exceeding expectations for both its latest and upcoming quarters.

  • Quote: “Revenue jumping 57% really beat Wall Street's expectations... they're projecting about $18.7 billion in revenue... more than 30% above where Wall Street expected.” (01:44 – 02:09)

• Why the Boom?
  Surging demand for specialized memory chips—needed for AI systems—is diverting production capacity away from chips used in consumer devices (phones, PCs).

  • Quote: “AI has created this demand for this very specialized type of memory that works within the AI systems. And so a lot of the production capacity is going towards this very high value memory.” (01:58 – 02:14)

• Consequences for Consumers:

  • Expect higher prices and/or reduced memory specifications in devices sold next year as manufacturers either pass on costs or make design tweaks.
  • PC assembly giants (like Dell, HP) can bear only limited margin compression before raising prices.

• Root Cause:
  The so-called “AI gold rush” is putting pressure on chip supplies.

  • Quote: “You could look at it that way, sure. Memory chips are like other chips. You can't all of a sudden just magically pull lever and increase production overnight.” (03:33 – 03:44)

• Market Dynamics:
  Memory chips are cyclical — prone to boom and bust cycles, and producers are careful not to overbuild during surges, given past experience of busts.

• Device Sales Outlook:
  Phone and PC sales may dip in 2026 as upgrades become pricier and consumers delay purchases, but some buyers (especially corporate PC upgraders facing the Windows “end of life” deadline) have little choice.

  • Quote: “With PCs... there's going to be some sales that really can't be delayed.” (04:53 – 05:10)

2. The Tech IPO Wave Arrives (06:05 – 11:09)

• Recent IPO Market Recap:
  Corey Driebush outlines how the IPO landscape—especially for tech—was “pretty choppy” since the post-2021 slump due to rising interest rates and underperforming new tech stocks.

  • Quote: “The US IPO market, it’s been pretty choppy these last several years... shares of companies—recent IPOs, especially in the tech space... a lot of those companies have not... recovered.” (06:36 – 07:01)

• 2025: A Return to Form?
  2025 saw some IPO successes, notably software firm Figma and crypto company Circle Internet Group, signaling a return to normalcy, although events like the “Liberation Day” tariffs and government shutdowns added turbulence.

• Market Test Case:
  Medical supply company Medline’s towering IPO ($6B) was the largest since Rivian in 2021, and its positive debut reassured bankers and investors that there’s appetite for large listings.

  • Quote: “The fact that bankers were able to find buyers for more than $6 billion worth of shares and then the stock not only traded up, but trade, that was a really good sign.” (08:39 – 09:01)

• Why a Big 2026 Pipeline?

  • Notably, SpaceX is actively planning its own IPO, potentially the largest in years.
  • Tech companies, particularly AI firms, are running into the limits of private fundraising and are turning public to raise larger sums and access easier debt financing.
  • Quote: “As we’re seeing these AI companies, they need a lot of money. As we’ve learned, they’re raising a lot of money in private markets. But at some point that may become more difficult.” (09:29 – 10:11)

• Risks and Rewards for Early Movers:
  The “first mover advantage” is real—if the first major IPOs perform poorly, it could spook the market and make it harder for others to succeed.

  • Quote: “If one of these big companies chooses to go first and the offering does not go well, it causes fund managers to lose money... That’s going to be a clear sign that maybe they don’t buy the shares of the next big offering.” (10:27 – 10:55)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dan Gallagher (on AI’s impact):
  “The AI gold rush really to blame for potentially more expensive phones and PCs next year?” (03:22 – 03:33)
  “You can’t all of a sudden just magically pull lever and increase production overnight... takes a long time to build up more capacity...” (03:34 – 03:50)

• Corey Driebush (on the IPO pipeline):
  “For many years, being private has been the cool thing to do, especially for companies like a SpaceX that can fund itself... But... nowhere else can you have easy access to huge amounts of new money than the public markets.” (09:29 – 09:59)

• Outlook for 2026:
  “It's going to be an interesting year.” (10:55 – 11:09)

Key Timestamps

• 00:35 – 05:13: Micron’s record quarter, AI’s impact on chip supply and consumer pricing, cyclical memory market, and device sales outlook
• 06:36 – 08:12: Review of the 2025 IPO market, choppiness, and standout IPOs (Figma, Circle)
• 08:12 – 09:23: Medline IPO as a test case; signals for 2026
• 09:29 – 10:55: Why tech giants are going public in 2026, AI fundraising needs, and the risks of blockbuster IPOs flopping

Takeaway

2026 is shaping up to be a decisive year for tech—with memory chip shortages affecting everyday gadget prices and a slew of long-awaited, giant IPOs set to test the mettle of the public markets. The rush is fueled in part by AI’s unquenchable need for capital, but the lingering scars of recent IPO flops mean all eyes are on who jumps first—and whether they soar or tumble.