C (2:45)

The short of it is you're probably going to see prices go up for a lot of these types of products. And you also might see products where there's just less memory in them because you're going to see manufacturers make some design tweaks because they can only get so much memory. And so they might just push out more products that have less. It's very likely you're going to see prices go up because the manufacturers are already paying higher prices and they're already seeing a hit to their profit margins on that. And there's only so much they can absorb. If you take a manufacturer like Dell, like HP, that make PCs, they can take some margin pressure, not a lot. They need to pass those costs on.

A (3:22)

So what I'm hearing, and let me know if this is fair to say, is the AI gold rush really to blame for potentially more expensive phones and PCs next year?

C (3:33)

You could look at it that way, sure. Memory chips are like other chips. You can't all of a sudden just magically pull lever and increase production overnight. It takes a long time to build up more capacity to get the tools, build new fabs. Years in fact. And so you have a market that can't respond super quickly to big swings in demand like this. And memory is notoriously boom bust like this has been a case for years where the, the prices shoot up and then more capacity comes online and then the prices fall for whatever reason. And the Micron itself has dipped into operating losses several times over the last several years. And so they're going to be really cautious about how much they build up production capacity because they obviously don't want to be left holding the bag when prices go down again, because they always go down. It's very cyclical.

A (4:24)

So we should expect phone and PC sales to fall next year.

C (4:28)

You certainly could see that just with any other product line, you put your prices up, sometimes you lose some sales. So it'll depend on how much the prices go up and on what types of products. We already saw one market research firm cut down its smartphone sales forecast for 2026.

A (4:43)

Right. And certainly people can go without updating their phones for a year. We've seen longer upgrade cycles for iPhones and that may have an impact on sales of devices as well.

C (4:53)

Depends on how long you've had your current device. Some people aren't going to be able to wait that long. With PCs you have this interesting effect. One of Microsoft's big Windows operating system versions is reaching what's called end of life and that's been pushing through a lot of upgrades, especially in the corporate end. And so there's going to be some sales that really can't be delayed.

A (5:13)

That was WSJ Heard on the street columnist Dan Gallagher. Would you skip upgrading your phone or laptop next year if prices go up? If you're a listener on Spotify, be sure to let us know in this episode's poll or leave us a comment. Coming up, get ready because IPOs are hot again. We preview what's to come in big tech IPOs next year and discuss why there's so much at stake. That's after the break.

D (5:46)

This episode is brought to you by Business Roundtable, an association of more than 200 CEOs of America's leading companies. Business Roundtable companies are leading the way in expanding opportunity for millions of Americans. Learn more@BRT.org LeadingTheWay.

A (6:05)

Investors are getting excited about a potential slew of big tech IPOs next year, but they're also wondering if the market can handle it. Needless to say, there's a lot that could go wrong and a lot that could go right if you're betting on the stock market. WSJ finance reporter Corey Driebush is here to help us unpack what's to come. Corey, let's talk about the IPO market this year in 2025. How did it look, especially among tech companies? Yeah.

D (6:36)

So the US IPO market, it's been pretty choppy these last several years, especially after the big boom times of 2020, 2021. As we remember, in late 21, the US Fed decided to signal that it was going to start raising interest rates and that sent shares of companies recent IPOs, especially in the tech space, especially those that were more high growth and a little riskier. It sent their stocks falling. A lot of those companies have not their stock prices have not recovered. Those stocks are still trading lower, which meant that a lot of companies decided, we don't want to enter into this market. We're going to stay private for longer. I'd say that this past year, 2025 was one of the first years we started tech companies going public again and we saw some really good successes, at least initially. Software company Figma went public and its stock soared in its first day of trading. The stock has since come back, but it's still trading above its IPO price. And we saw a lot of crypto companies which debuted and whose shares did really well, like Circle Internet Group. So, so all in all, it was getting to be a return almost of normalcy. And we probably would have had a much more quote, unquote, normal year if we hadn't had a couple of big Interruptions like Liberation Day with the tariffs and sending the markets really volatile in the spring and then obviously in the fall with the government shutdown. That also interrupted the good wave we were having with the IPO market.

A (8:12)

Speaking of recent IPOs, you wrote about the medical supply company Medline. How did that perform in its debut and what kind of indications does it give us for the blockbuster IPO market next year?

D (8:25)

One of the main things that people have been talking about when they look ahead to 2026 and some of the giant names that are expected to go. For example, this week, as we've reported, SpaceX executives are meeting with some investment bankers discussing their 2026 IPO plans. That will be a giant IPO. And a lot of people in the industry are wondering how will the stock market react to tens of billions of dollars of stocks suddenly becoming available that you have to sell into the market? Medline was the biggest IPO since 2021 when Rivian went public. So this was a great sort of smaller but also important test case. And the fact that bankers were able to find buyers for more than $6 billion worth of shares and then the stock not only traded up, but trade, that was a really good sign.

A (9:23)

What's behind this spate of potential big name IPOs expected next year?

D (9:29)

It's so funny. For many years being private has been the cool thing to do, especially for companies like a SpaceX that can fund itself and has found ways to buy out shares or help provide liquidity, basically allow employees to sell their stakes and make money through secondary or tender offers. But what we've seen, especially for the AI companies, really nowhere else can you have easy access to huge amounts of new money than the public markets. And not only new money in terms of stock sales, but also debt sales. It's just easier if you have a publicly traded stock. So as we're seeing these AI companies, they need a lot of money. As we've learned, they're raising a lot of money in private markets. But at some point that may become more difficult.

A (10:22)

What's at stake if some of these blockbuster IPOs don't perform well next year?

D (10:27)

Well, that's where it comes down to first mover advantage. And that's something I've spoken with quite a few bankers about. There is a reason that once one company is rumored to be going, suddenly everyone is rushing because there's a benefit, there's a risk and a benefit to being first. If one of these big companies chooses to go first and the offering does not go well, it causes fund managers to lose money, people who bought into the IPO to end up with paper losses. That's going to be a clear sign that maybe they don't buy the shares of the next big offering. So it's going to be an interesting year.

A (11:09)

That was WSJ finance reporter Corey Driebush. And that's it for Tech News Briefing. If you're a listener on Spotify, be sure to take this episode's poll or leave us a comment. Today's show was produced by Julie Chang. Jessica Fenton and Michael Lavalle wrote our theme music. Our supervising producer is Katie Ferguson. Jessica Fenton is our technical manager. Our development producer is Aisha El Musleam. Chris Sinsley is the deputy editor and Falana Patterson is the Wall Street Journal's head of news. Audio Logging off for the weekend. I'm Bell Lynn. We'll be back later this morning with TNB Tech Minute. Thanks for listening.

E (12:00)

If you're waiting for your AI to turn into ROI and wondering how long you have to wait, maybe you need to do more than wait. Any business can use AI. IBM helps you use AI to change how you do business. Let's create smarter business. IBM.