What to Expect From Tech IPOs in 2026

Summary

---

WSJ Tech News Briefing

Episode: "What to Expect From Tech IPOs in 2026"

Date: December 19, 2025
Host: Bell Lin
Guests: Dan Gallagher (WSJ Heard on the Street columnist), Corey Driebush (WSJ finance reporter)

---

Episode Overview

In this episode, the team at the Wall Street Journal discusses the resurgence of tech IPOs anticipated for 2026 after several years of volatility. The show starts by dissecting Micron’s blockbuster financial results—a signal that the AI-driven chip boom could soon translate into higher prices for everyday electronics. The main segment then explores the rapidly heating IPO market: why heavy hitters like SpaceX are (finally) going public, what’s driving this new IPO wave, and the stakes for investors and the broader market if these launches fall flat.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Micron Profits and the Memory Chip Squeeze (00:35 – 05:13)

• Micron’s Historic Quarter:
  Dan Gallagher explains that Micron posted record revenue (up 57%) and operating earnings, exceeding expectations for both its latest and upcoming quarters.

  • Quote: “Revenue jumping 57% really beat Wall Street's expectations... they're projecting about $18.7 billion in revenue... more than 30% above where Wall Street expected.” (01:44 – 02:09)

• Why the Boom?
  Surging demand for specialized memory chips—needed for AI systems—is diverting production capacity away from chips used in consumer devices (phones, PCs).

  • Quote: “AI has created this demand for this very specialized type of memory that works within the AI systems. And so a lot of the production capacity is going towards this very high value memory.” (01:58 – 02:14)

• Consequences for Consumers:

  • Expect higher prices and/or reduced memory specifications in devices sold next year as manufacturers either pass on costs or make design tweaks.
  • PC assembly giants (like Dell, HP) can bear only limited margin compression before raising prices.

• Root Cause:
  The so-called “AI gold rush” is putting pressure on chip supplies.

  • Quote: “You could look at it that way, sure. Memory chips are like other chips. You can't all of a sudden just magically pull lever and increase production overnight.” (03:33 – 03:44)

• Market Dynamics:
  Memory chips are cyclical — prone to boom and bust cycles, and producers are careful not to overbuild during surges, given past experience of busts.

• Device Sales Outlook:
  Phone and PC sales may dip in 2026 as upgrades become pricier and consumers delay purchases, but some buyers (especially corporate PC upgraders facing the Windows “end of life” deadline) have little choice.

  • Quote: “With PCs... there's going to be some sales that really can't be delayed.” (04:53 – 05:10)

---

2. The Tech IPO Wave Arrives (06:05 – 11:09)

• Recent IPO Market Recap:
  Corey Driebush outlines how the IPO landscape—especially for tech—was “pretty choppy” since the post-2021 slump due to rising interest rates and underperforming new tech stocks.

  • Quote: “The US IPO market, it’s been pretty choppy these last several years... shares of companies—recent IPOs, especially in the tech space... a lot of those companies have not... recovered.” (06:36 – 07:01)

• 2025: A Return to Form?
  2025 saw some IPO successes, notably software firm Figma and crypto company Circle Internet Group, signaling a return to normalcy, although events like the “Liberation Day” tariffs and government shutdowns added turbulence.

• Market Test Case:
  Medical supply company Medline’s towering IPO ($6B) was the largest since Rivian in 2021, and its positive debut reassured bankers and investors that there’s appetite for large listings.

  • Quote: “The fact that bankers were able to find buyers for more than $6 billion worth of shares and then the stock not only traded up, but trade, that was a really good sign.” (08:39 – 09:01)

• Why a Big 2026 Pipeline?

  • Notably, SpaceX is actively planning its own IPO, potentially the largest in years.
  • Tech companies, particularly AI firms, are running into the limits of private fundraising and are turning public to raise larger sums and access easier debt financing.
  • Quote: “As we’re seeing these AI companies, they need a lot of money. As we’ve learned, they’re raising a lot of money in private markets. But at some point that may become more difficult.” (09:29 – 10:11)

• Risks and Rewards for Early Movers:
  The “first mover advantage” is real—if the first major IPOs perform poorly, it could spook the market and make it harder for others to succeed.

  • Quote: “If one of these big companies chooses to go first and the offering does not go well, it causes fund managers to lose money... That’s going to be a clear sign that maybe they don’t buy the shares of the next big offering.” (10:27 – 10:55)

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dan Gallagher (on AI’s impact):
  “The AI gold rush really to blame for potentially more expensive phones and PCs next year?” (03:22 – 03:33)
  “You can’t all of a sudden just magically pull lever and increase production overnight... takes a long time to build up more capacity...” (03:34 – 03:50)

• Corey Driebush (on the IPO pipeline):
  “For many years, being private has been the cool thing to do, especially for companies like a SpaceX that can fund itself... But... nowhere else can you have easy access to huge amounts of new money than the public markets.” (09:29 – 09:59)

• Outlook for 2026:
  “It's going to be an interesting year.” (10:55 – 11:09)

---

Key Timestamps

• 00:35 – 05:13: Micron’s record quarter, AI’s impact on chip supply and consumer pricing, cyclical memory market, and device sales outlook
• 06:36 – 08:12: Review of the 2025 IPO market, choppiness, and standout IPOs (Figma, Circle)
• 08:12 – 09:23: Medline IPO as a test case; signals for 2026
• 09:29 – 10:55: Why tech giants are going public in 2026, AI fundraising needs, and the risks of blockbuster IPOs flopping

---

Takeaway

2026 is shaping up to be a decisive year for tech—with memory chip shortages affecting everyday gadget prices and a slew of long-awaited, giant IPOs set to test the mettle of the public markets. The rush is fueled in part by AI’s unquenchable need for capital, but the lingering scars of recent IPO flops mean all eyes are on who jumps first—and whether they soar or tumble.

Transcript

[A]

Where can quantum computing be explored most effectively? Katie pizzolato, Vice President, IBM Quantum Platform explains.

[B]

Personally, I'm most excited about the potential applications.

[A]

We don't know yet.

[B]

It's very exciting to think about where we all sat at the dawn of classical computation and not to ever imagine where we are today. But we know that quantum computers are poised to accelerate time and cost efficiencies in really important fields like drug development, materials discovery, optimization, things that impact all industries.

[A]

Welcome to Tech News briefing. It's Friday, December 19th. I'm Bell Lin for the Wall Street Journal. The memory chip maker Micron recently posted record revenue and operating income for its fiscal first quarter. But while that's good news for the company, it could actually mean higher prices for anyone looking to buy a new phone or PC next year. Then, after years of choppiness in the market for new stock offerings, bankers and investors are bracing for a slate of blockbuster IPOs in 2026, and that includes some of the biggest names in tech. But first, it's good to be in the chips business right now. And Micron has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the major trends in the tech market. But how might that translate into higher prices for consumers buying new electronics next year? WSJ Heard on the street columnist Dan Gallagher joins us now to break it down to start. Dan, walk us through Micron's results.

[C]

Well, it was a record quarter for them in both revenue and earnings in terms of the most amount they've ever made in a quarter. Revenue jumping 57% really beat wall Street's expectations. The real story, though, was the forecast they gave for the current quarter, the fiscal quarter that ends in February, where they're projecting about $18.7 billion in revenue, which is like more than 30% above where Wall street expected, plus a huge jump in operating earnings. And this comes from the fact that, like, right now is a really great time to be in the memory chip business. AI has created this demand for this very specialized type of memory that works within the AI systems. And so a lot of the production capacity is going towards this very high value memory. And what that does is that leaves less production capacity for the chips to go in your phone or in your PC.

[A]

Right. As you wrote in your recent column, Micron's results really sort of portends bad news for people who might be buying new phones or PCs next year. Can you explain a little bit more about that phenomenon?

[C]

The short of it is you're probably going to see prices go up for a lot of these types of products. And you also might see products where there's just less memory in them because you're going to see manufacturers make some design tweaks because they can only get so much memory. And so they might just push out more products that have less. It's very likely you're going to see prices go up because the manufacturers are already paying higher prices and they're already seeing a hit to their profit margins on that. And there's only so much they can absorb. If you take a manufacturer like Dell, like HP, that make PCs, they can take some margin pressure, not a lot. They need to pass those costs on.

[A]

So what I'm hearing, and let me know if this is fair to say, is the AI gold rush really to blame for potentially more expensive phones and PCs next year?

[C]

You could look at it that way, sure. Memory chips are like other chips. You can't all of a sudden just magically pull lever and increase production overnight. It takes a long time to build up more capacity to get the tools, build new fabs. Years in fact. And so you have a market that can't respond super quickly to big swings in demand like this. And memory is notoriously boom bust like this has been a case for years where the, the prices shoot up and then more capacity comes online and then the prices fall for whatever reason. And the Micron itself has dipped into operating losses several times over the last several years. And so they're going to be really cautious about how much they build up production capacity because they obviously don't want to be left holding the bag when prices go down again, because they always go down. It's very cyclical.

[A]

So we should expect phone and PC sales to fall next year.

[C]

You certainly could see that just with any other product line, you put your prices up, sometimes you lose some sales. So it'll depend on how much the prices go up and on what types of products. We already saw one market research firm cut down its smartphone sales forecast for 2026.

[A]

Right. And certainly people can go without updating their phones for a year. We've seen longer upgrade cycles for iPhones and that may have an impact on sales of devices as well.

[C]

Depends on how long you've had your current device. Some people aren't going to be able to wait that long. With PCs you have this interesting effect. One of Microsoft's big Windows operating system versions is reaching what's called end of life and that's been pushing through a lot of upgrades, especially in the corporate end. And so there's going to be some sales that really can't be delayed.

[A]

That was WSJ Heard on the street columnist Dan Gallagher. Would you skip upgrading your phone or laptop next year if prices go up? If you're a listener on Spotify, be sure to let us know in this episode's poll or leave us a comment. Coming up, get ready because IPOs are hot again. We preview what's to come in big tech IPOs next year and discuss why there's so much at stake. That's after the break.

[D]

This episode is brought to you by Business Roundtable, an association of more than 200 CEOs of America's leading companies. Business Roundtable companies are leading the way in expanding opportunity for millions of Americans. Learn [e-mail] LeadingTheWay.

[A]

Investors are getting excited about a potential slew of big tech IPOs next year, but they're also wondering if the market can handle it. Needless to say, there's a lot that could go wrong and a lot that could go right if you're betting on the stock market. WSJ finance reporter Corey Driebush is here to help us unpack what's to come. Corey, let's talk about the IPO market this year in 2025. How did it look, especially among tech companies? Yeah.

[D]

So the US IPO market, it's been pretty choppy these last several years, especially after the big boom times of 2020, 2021. As we remember, in late 21, the US Fed decided to signal that it was going to start raising interest rates and that sent shares of companies recent IPOs, especially in the tech space, especially those that were more high growth and a little riskier. It sent their stocks falling. A lot of those companies have not their stock prices have not recovered. Those stocks are still trading lower, which meant that a lot of companies decided, we don't want to enter into this market. We're going to stay private for longer. I'd say that this past year, 2025 was one of the first years we started tech companies going public again and we saw some really good successes, at least initially. Software company Figma went public and its stock soared in its first day of trading. The stock has since come back, but it's still trading above its IPO price. And we saw a lot of crypto companies which debuted and whose shares did really well, like Circle Internet Group. So, so all in all, it was getting to be a return almost of normalcy. And we probably would have had a much more quote, unquote, normal year if we hadn't had a couple of big Interruptions like Liberation Day with the tariffs and sending the markets really volatile in the spring and then obviously in the fall with the government shutdown. That also interrupted the good wave we were having with the IPO market.

[A]

Speaking of recent IPOs, you wrote about the medical supply company Medline. How did that perform in its debut and what kind of indications does it give us for the blockbuster IPO market next year?

[D]

One of the main things that people have been talking about when they look ahead to 2026 and some of the giant names that are expected to go. For example, this week, as we've reported, SpaceX executives are meeting with some investment bankers discussing their 2026 IPO plans. That will be a giant IPO. And a lot of people in the industry are wondering how will the stock market react to tens of billions of dollars of stocks suddenly becoming available that you have to sell into the market? Medline was the biggest IPO since 2021 when Rivian went public. So this was a great sort of smaller but also important test case. And the fact that bankers were able to find buyers for more than $6 billion worth of shares and then the stock not only traded up, but trade, that was a really good sign.

[A]

What's behind this spate of potential big name IPOs expected next year?

[D]

It's so funny. For many years being private has been the cool thing to do, especially for companies like a SpaceX that can fund itself and has found ways to buy out shares or help provide liquidity, basically allow employees to sell their stakes and make money through secondary or tender offers. But what we've seen, especially for the AI companies, really nowhere else can you have easy access to huge amounts of new money than the public markets. And not only new money in terms of stock sales, but also debt sales. It's just easier if you have a publicly traded stock. So as we're seeing these AI companies, they need a lot of money. As we've learned, they're raising a lot of money in private markets. But at some point that may become more difficult.

[A]

What's at stake if some of these blockbuster IPOs don't perform well next year?

[D]

Well, that's where it comes down to first mover advantage. And that's something I've spoken with quite a few bankers about. There is a reason that once one company is rumored to be going, suddenly everyone is rushing because there's a benefit, there's a risk and a benefit to being first. If one of these big companies chooses to go first and the offering does not go well, it causes fund managers to lose money, people who bought into the IPO to end up with paper losses. That's going to be a clear sign that maybe they don't buy the shares of the next big offering. So it's going to be an interesting year.

[A]

That was WSJ finance reporter Corey Driebush. And that's it for Tech News Briefing. If you're a listener on Spotify, be sure to take this episode's poll or leave us a comment. Today's show was produced by Julie Chang. Jessica Fenton and Michael Lavalle wrote our theme music. Our supervising producer is Katie Ferguson. Jessica Fenton is our technical manager. Our development producer is Aisha El Musleam. Chris Sinsley is the deputy editor and Falana Patterson is the Wall Street Journal's head of news. Audio Logging off for the weekend. I'm Bell Lynn. We'll be back later this morning with TNB Tech Minute. Thanks for listening.

[E]

If you're waiting for your AI to turn into ROI and wondering how long you have to wait, maybe you need to do more than wait. Any business can use AI. IBM helps you use AI to change how you do business. Let's create smarter business. IBM.