Will EV Sales Stall or Surge in 2026?

Summary

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WSJ Tech News Briefing | "Will EV Sales Stall or Surge in 2026?"

Date: December 26, 2025
Host: Isabel Bousquette
Guests: Imani Moise (Personal Economics Reporter), Ryan Felton (Autos Reporter)

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the uncertain future of electric vehicle (EV) sales in the U.S. as 2026 approaches, with a focus on the recent elimination of a major $7,500 federal tax credit and its significant impact on consumer demand and automaker strategies. The discussion covers how we got here, the key hurdles for EV adoption, and what needs to change for EVs to become truly mainstream.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Arc of EV Adoption in the U.S.

[01:49–03:36]

• Early Introduction: Ryan Felton traces early American exposure to EVs back to GM’s EV1 in the 1990s, but emphasizes the true boom only came in the last 10–15 years with Tesla’s rise.

  • “The shortest, simplest answer is there was some attempts at making EVs a long time ago… but really in a big way, the American consumer didn't really get to know EVs until the past 10 to 15 years when Tesla took off.” – Ryan Felton [01:57]

• Federal Incentives: The federal tax credit, especially as broadened under the Biden administration, played a crucial role in making expensive EVs more accessible.

  • Notable quote:

    “There were higher priced, sometimes luxury vehicles that could be sold with several thousand dollars taken off the price… that really helped juice EV sales to at one point was 10, 12% of the market.” – Ryan Felton [02:31]

2. After the Tax Credit: A Shift in Sales and Sentiment

[03:36–06:21]

• End of the Boom: The market confidence that EVs were “the future” has waned with the tax credit’s elimination. Automakers are pivoting more toward hybrids and even gas-powered models.

  • “It’s safe to say that just this sort of environment where EVs seemed poised to be the future… that's done, at least for the foreseeable future.” – Ryan Felton [03:46]

• Sales Impact: Imani Moise notes a dramatic 30% year-over-year decline in EV sales in October 2025—the first full month without the tax credit.

  • “Maybe there was a better market for a tax write-off than there is for these EVs…you saw EV sales hit a record high… but just in October… a 30% year over year decline in EV sales.” – Imani Moise [04:40]

• Pricing Anomalies: Some states and dealers, like in Colorado, had outrageously low EV lease deals when both state and federal incentives overlapped.

  • Notable moment: Felton recalls “a dealer essentially did a zero dollar a month lease on a particular Fiat electric car” [05:27].

3. What’s Holding Consumers Back from EVs in 2026?

[07:18–09:37]

• Charging Logistics: Lack of home or convenient charging is a primary factor, especially problematic for those living in apartments or planning long trips.

  • “The number one question that you should ask yourself is do you have the space at home to charge?” – Imani Moise [07:18]

• EV Ownership Costs: Despite gas savings, AAA’s analysis shows EVs cost about $1,700 more per year to own (mainly due to higher sticker prices, insurance, and rapid depreciation). Strip away depreciation, and operating costs are $400/year less than gas cars.

  • “Based on the latest report for 2025… Electric vehicles are on average $1,700 more a year to own compared to gas cars.” – Imani Moise [08:36]

• Used EV Market: More buyers are turning to used EVs since new ones lose value quickly, and operating costs for used EVs are notably cheaper.

• Technological Obsolescence: Rapid advances in EV tech make even recent models feel outdated, creating buyer hesitation.

4. Automakers’ Recalibration

[10:15–11:48]

• Production Cutbacks: Automakers like GM and Ford are scaling back EV production to match post-incentive demand.

  • “We've already seen some companies start dialing back production plans… basically you’re just going to see companies scaling back production until they really understand what the new, not artificially driven up demand actually is.” – Ryan Felton [10:32]

• Upcoming Models: Despite scaling back, some low-cost models are planned (e.g., $30,000 EV pickup from Ford, new Chevy Bolt in the high $20,000s).

5. The Roadblocks to Mainstream EV Adoption

[11:56–13:45]

• Infrastructure Gaps: Both guests agree that insufficient, unreliable charging infrastructure remains the top deterrent. Long trips are still a headache.

  • “The main thing is charging… it just really is an added extended amount of time that you have to bake in on a longer trip if you're going to pull it off.” – Ryan Felton [11:56]

  • “It's going to be a huge challenge to really win over more customers… until you actually have more options that are in the price bands that most consumers would consider a new car.” – Ryan Felton [12:37]

• Skilled Labor Shortage: Repairs and servicing EVs require specialized workers, meaning long trips for service—or long waits—are a frustration for owners.

  • “You drive to your local Ford dealer and they’re like, oh, well, we don’t have a guy who's trained in EVs. You have to drive 45 to 60 miles to this specific dealership to service this car.” – Imani Moise [13:26]

• Affordability: Consumers have shown they’ll buy EVs at the right price; dropping prices or new incentives could reignite demand.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Maybe there was a better market for a tax write-off than there is for these EVs.” – Imani Moise [04:40]
• “A dealer essentially did a zero dollar a month lease on a particular Fiat electric car.” – Ryan Felton [05:27]
• “The main thing is charging… until that's commonplace, it's going to be a huge challenge to really win over more customers.” – Ryan Felton [11:56]
• “As they become more mainstream, there just needs to be a critical mass, and we just haven't hit that yet.” – Imani Moise [13:37]

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Timestamps – Key Segments

• Background & EV History: [01:49–03:36]
• Impact of Tax Credit Loss: [03:36–06:21]
• Consumer Hurdles in 2026: [07:18–09:37]
• Automaker Strategies Moving Forward: [10:15–11:48]
• What Needs to Change for Wider EV Adoption: [11:56–13:45]

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Tone and Takeaways

The tone was analytical, fact-driven, and openly skeptical about the near-term future of EVs without renewed or alternative incentives. Both reporters emphasized that while technological and infrastructure improvements continue, mass adoption hinges on affordability, practical charging logistics, and broader industry adaptation.

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This episode is a must-listen (or must-read!) for anyone curious about the fast-shifting landscape of electric vehicles and what it will take for them to truly become the norm in the U.S. auto market.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Welcome to Tech News briefing. It's Friday, December 26th. I'm Isabel Busquette for the Wall Street Journal. This week and next, we're looking ahead to 2026 and how some of the biggest trends in tech may play out during the year. We start with electric vehicles. Are EVs still worth it? That's the question consumers are asking following the elimination of a $7,500 federal tax credit that boosted sales of EV, and many are skeptical. Now, Ford and General Motors, who have been building up a supply chain to support the rollout of numerous EVs, could see consumer demand dry up. Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley earlier this year predicted that the EV market share would fall by more than half, to between 4 and 5% of total sales this year. That's partially because even when the federal tax credit was a factor, EVs have boasted significantly higher sticker prices. So how did we get here and what's next for Lexus in the US we have personal economics reporter Imani Moise and autos reporter Ryan Felton with us to discuss. Ryan and Imani, thank you so much for being here.

[C]

Thanks for having us.

[D]

Thanks for having us.

[B]

So give us a little bit of background. When were American consumers first introduced to electric cars? Should we start with you, Ryan?

[C]

Sure. The shortest, simplest answer is there was some attempts at making EVs a long time ago. GM famously made a car called the EV1 in the 90s before it disappeared, but really in a big way. The American consumer didn't really get to know EVs until the past 10 to 15 years when Tesla took off.

[B]

And so it seemed like for a couple of years at least EVs were very trendy and popular. Ryan, what are your thoughts on the sort of early days, days of EV.

[C]

Sales over the last 10 years? On and off again, there there was a federal tax credit to help incentivize the sale of EVs, and that got supercharged during the Biden administration and applied in a much broader way which allowed car makers to sell EVs, which at the time were still pretty expensive. There was a couple more relatively cheaper options. But overall these were higher priced, sometimes luxury vehicles that could be sold at a cheaper lease payment or just with several thousand dollars taken off the price through just a tax credit on its own. And that I think in a big way really helped juice EV sales to at one point was 10, 12% of the market, depending on the month. Tesla sells a pretty high number of cars in the US every year. And just the visibility of seeing it more and more, not just in certain cities, but everywhere now, it definitely helped contribute to the increased sales that we saw within the past few years.

[B]

And so does the situation look different or the same now? Is this sort of early boon over now that the tax credit is no longer available?

[C]

It's safe to say that just this sort of environment where EVs seemed poised to be the future, Without a doubt that's done, at least for the foreseeable future. Carmakers are committing more and more to hybrids, to gas powered cars, while still nodding to this idea that eventually EVs will take over once things like charging infrastructure catches up and that sort of thing. But as it stands, EVs are expensive and without the sort of incentive that the federal tax credit provided, it's made it much more difficult for a consumer to take on an EV and what comes with it. That is the charging question, I think is still a big one and will be without the incentive. I think you're going to see EVs just be this sort of niche market, at least for the next several years.

[D]

Just to add on that, for quite some time, it became a little bit of a no brainer to go into this market, or at least considering it. And what the early numbers are starting to show because it has been only a few months since these tax credits expired, is that maybe there was a better market for a tax write off than there is for these EVs. Because in the third quarter, so the last full quarter of the tax credit, you saw EV sales hit a record high of over 400,000 new EVs sold. But just in October, the first full month after the tax credit expired, you saw a 30% year over year decline in EV sales. There has to be a little bit more time to see how this fully shakes out, but it seems like a lot of the demand was really tax credit driven.

[C]

It's a great point because when carmakers were given the opportunity to apply this $7,500 credit to leases, it got to a point where you were seeing just some really crazy deals, depending on where you were at I went to Denver for a story which Colorado has its own state incentive programs that drove down prices even more. There were some lease deals for as low as $19 a month. At one point, a dealer essentially did a zero dollar a month lease on a particular Fiat electric car, which if you're concerned about charging, that might get overruled if you can get a car for $0 a month. So those sorts of scenarios are what help definitely keep EV sales elevated to what they were. And like Imani said, you're just going to see it leveled off now to some sort of new low that I don't think we'll really know at least until the early part of next year.

[B]

Coming up, what will it take for automakers to win back wary buyers when it comes to EVs? That's after the break.

[E]

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[B]

And we're back with personal economics reporter Imani Moiz and autos reporter Ryan Felton to continue our conversation on EVs. So Imani, going into 2026, if I'm a consumer and I'm thinking about getting an EV versus a gas vehicle, what are the biggest factors I'm considering and what might push me in one direction or the other?

[D]

One of the concerns that came up as I was interviewing consumers is charging availability. So the number one question that you should ask yourself is do you have the space at home to charge? If you live in an apartment building, are there charging stations available at your building? If not, it might not make sense for you because the logistics become that much harder. The other concern that people had, particularly if you're trying to use an EV as your primary vehicle, is long haul trips. So if you're a person who's constantly making that trip from, let's say New York to D.C. or even further, maybe an EV is not the car for you because there might be some concerns about charging. And it's not just a quick gas fill up, right? A lot of times it's you sitting with your car while it's plugged in, waiting. And time is money, especially on a road trip. The other thing that a lot of people are concerned about is the technology. So there's been a lot of advances in electric vehicle technology over the past, let's say decade or so. So what that means Is that the old cars, even though it might be, let's say, a 2022 model, the technology could be way outdated. So that's causing a lot of people hes hesitation before they pull the trigger to buy.

[B]

I thought it was really interesting that you reported that EVs are actually more expensive to own than gas cars, even considering all the money that you're saving on gas, what's going on there?

[D]

So it's really interesting. So aaa, that roadside assistance company that everybody knows, they do an annual report called your driving costs, where they analyze everything from fuel costs, maintenance costs, financing. And based on the latest report for 2025, they Electric vehicles are on average $1,700 more a year to own compared to gas cars. And that's because the prices of EVs tend to be higher than traditional gas cars when you're comparing similar models. So higher prices means higher financing costs. Right? That's going to be your interest rate. You're going to be paying more in interest. Higher prices also means higher insurance costs. And because of some of those concerns that I talked about earlier in terms of battery life technology becoming outdated faster, these cars also depreciate much F than a traditional car. So that Number I quoted $1,700 more a year to own. If you strip out depreciation costs, then EVs are actually $400 a year cheaper to own than gas alternatives.

[B]

You also reported that people are now buying used EVs over new EVs and used gas cars. So what's going on there?

[D]

Well, again, that depreciation cost that I mentioned is really the biggest factor driving the higher cost of ownership for EVs. But that's really an intangible cost and that's paid by the first. So if you're in the used market, then you don't have to worry about that at all. And when you consider just the operating costs, so that'll be fuel and maintenance. EVs are much cheaper to own than gas because electricity is still cheaper than traditional gas and they require less maintenance because, you know, there's fewer things exploding inside of them.

[B]

That's fair. Ryan, I want to go back to you now. What does all this mean for the automakers? Are they going to try to convince consumers to keep buying these cars or dial back on production? What can we expect there?

[C]

We've already seen some companies start dialing back production plans, depending on who you're talking about. I mean, GM definitely has scaled back. Ford cut production of its F150 electric truck and Basically you're just going to see companies scaling back production until they really understand what the new, not artificially driven up demand actually is. But still, at the same time, there are evs in the works for the US market that could be interesting value propositions for some people. Like for example, Ford is working on what they say will be a thirty thousand dollar EV pickup. Chevy has a new bolt coming out that's going to be starting somewhere in like the high 20s. The US automakers are trying to just figure out what exactly is the EV that people will drive. And there is obviously Tesla being an example of a company selling tens of thousands of cars every quarter. There's some appetite here. It's just how large will that appetite be for the consumer that wants something that's not a Tesla? Until really the whole industry kind of figures that out, you're just going to really see minimally active EV production plants for now at least.

[B]

I'd love to look ahead now and hear from each of you what would have to change to make EVs more affordable or desirable for consumers.

[C]

The main thing is charging. I've taken a number of trips just with EVs and it just really is an added extended amount of time that you have to bake in on a longer trip if you're going to pull it off. And yes, it's true that most people don't need a car every single day that's going to go 300 miles. But the whole idea, I guess, of the long trip is embedded into, you know, American culture. And so I think without the knowledge and ability to know that there's going to be an easy option to recharge my car, that while it may not be the one minute experience at a gas station, maybe it's 10, 20 minutes and I know that there will be a charging spot available like until that's commonplace, it's going to be a huge challenge to really win over more customers and then at the same time just making one that's at an affordable price. Until you actually have more options that are in the price bands that most consumers would consider a new car. It's an uphill battle.

[D]

Ryan really hit the nail on the head. The biggest thing is price and as we've seen is that there is demand for these cars at the right price. So whether that is on the automaker side to figure out a way to make these things more affordable and lower that price point so that they can meet that demand that exists, but broadly also infrastructure. The other thing that I found that consumers were complaining about is the need for specialized labor. So when something does go wrong and say you have a Ford, you drive to your local Ford dealer and they're like, oh, well, we don't have a guy who's trained in EVs. You have to drive 45 to 60 miles to this specific dealership to service this car. So that is one frustration that I've heard from consumers. But as they become more mainstream, there just needs to be a critical mass, and we just haven't hit that yet.

[B]

In the US Those were WSJ reporters Ryan Felton and Imani Moiz. And that's it for Tech News Briefing. Today's show was produced by Julie Chang, with production help from Danny Lewis. I'm your host, Isabel Bousquet. Jessica Fenton and Michael Lavalle wrote our theme music. Our supervising producers are Katie Ferguson and Melanie Roy. Jessica Fenton is our technical manager. Our development producer is Aisha Al Muslim. Chris Sinceley is our deputy editor, and Falana Patterson is the Wall Street Journal's head of news audio. We'll be back later this morning with TNB Tech Minute. Thanks for listening.

[F]

We're still in the early stages of understanding exactly how AI is shaping the future of work. What comes next, and how do businesses prepare for more? Search for Google's new series A New Era of American Innovation. Wherever you get your podcasts.