2026 Graduates Face Worst Jobs Market in 5 years

Summary

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WSJ What’s News – Episode Summary

Episode Title: 2026 Graduates Face Worst Jobs Market in 5 Years
Date: November 14, 2025
Host: Kate Bullivant
Podcast: Wall Street Journal - What’s News AM

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Episode Overview

This episode covers the state of global markets amidst recent volatility, intensifying U.S.-China tech tensions (particularly regarding AI chip exports), high-profile media mergers, and, most notably, the bleak job outlook facing 2026 college graduates. Expert guests provide context and firsthand analysis, highlighting economic uncertainty, geopolitical factors, and the reshaped early-career landscape.

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Key Discussion Points

1. Stock Market Volatility & Tech Sector Concerns

• Market Sell-Off Continues

  • [00:33-01:56] Kate Bullivant introduces the ongoing global market downturn, with Wall Street seeing continued losses, especially among tech stocks.
  • Quintin Webb, deputy finance editor, explains that markets, especially tech, were "priced at something close to perfection." Even a small shift in sentiment led to the recent pullback.
    • Quote:
      “So you could say that we were priced at something close to perfection. And so it doesn't take much of a shift in mood for things to start coming back a bit.” — Quintin Webb [00:41]

• AI Hype and Tech Valuations

  • [01:56] Webb draws parallels between current valuations and the dot-com bubble, warning that delayed AI breakthroughs or poor returns on big AI investments could undermine already lofty stock prices.
    • Quote:
      “…now there has come into focus this question about whether valuations are excessive. So we are now by some measures back to sort of dot com era style valuations…” — Quintin Webb [01:56]

2. Economic Uncertainty and Trade Policy Shifts

• Fears of Sticky Inflation & Delayed Data

  • [02:35-03:09] Investor anxiety intensifies due to delayed economic indicators following a government shutdown. Reduced confidence that the Fed will cut rates in December.
    • Tapering expectations: Probability of a December rate cut drops from 95% to 50% in the past month.

• Tariff Rollbacks on Latin American Imports

  • [03:09] The U.S. prepares to eliminate tariffs on select goods from Ecuador, Argentina, El Salvador, and Guatemala under new frameworks, hoping to combat inflation and recalibrate international relationships. Tariffs of at least 10% will remain on other products.

• Chinese Economic Slowdown

  • [03:09-05:26] China posts its sharpest slowdown in fixed asset investment since 1992, fueling global economic uncertainty. Retail, industrial, and property sectors weaken, possibly reflecting reduced appetite for overbuilt sectors like steel and EVs.

3. U.S. Immigration Enforcement Focus Shifts to North Carolina

• Community Concerns over ICE Activity
  • [05:26-06:01] After a crackdown in Chicago, attention turns to Charlotte, NC. State and local officials express worry about aggressive and non-targeted ICE operations.
    • Quote:
      “We have seen instances where ICE has gone after American citizens and detained them for up to days at a time. We've seen them assault senior people... This is not how policing is supposed to happen in this country.” — NC Gov. Josh Stein [05:26]

4. AI Chip Export Controls and Tech Titans Divide

• GAIN AI Act: Nvidia vs. Amazon & Microsoft
  • [07:07-09:41] Sandra Kilhoff and reporter Amit Ramkumar explore a proposed amendment (GAIN AI Act) that would tighten controls on AI chip exports to China and other “countries of concern,” favoring U.S. tech giants (Amazon, Microsoft) with exemptions.
    • Amazon and Microsoft support the measure, which could ease their overseas operations, while Nvidia (with 80% AI chip market share) and other chip companies lobby against it.
    • The policy’s path is uncertain, caught up in NDAA year-end negotiations, though it has prominent Democratic backers (Schumer, Warren) but still needs key GOP and banking committee support.
    • Quote:
      “This policy is really interesting because it splits the hyperscalers… It basically gives them an exemption to the policy that would allow them to transfer their chips from the US to overseas... without needing export licenses from the government.” — Amit Ramkumar [07:35]
    • Quote:
      “Lawmakers are very concerned about security risks associated with exporting these chips, potentially to places like China or even the Middle east…” — Amit Ramkumar [09:41]

5. Media Mergers – Warner Brothers Discovery Auction

• [10:15] Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix are preparing bids for Warner Brothers Discovery, with a deal expected to be finalized by year-end. Paramount is committed to buying the entire company, while Comcast and Netflix are mainly interested in Warner’s production assets.

6. 2026 Graduates Face Worst Job Market in Half a Decade

• Dismal Prospects for New College Graduates
  • [10:15-12:31] The National Association of Colleges and Employers survey finds employer sentiment at its most pessimistic since the pandemic; over half of employers rate 2026’s job market for new grads as “poor” or “fair”.
    • Key Drivers:
      • Economic slowdown: High-profile layoffs (e.g., Verizon slashing 15,000 jobs) signal a tepid labor market.
      • AI automation: Companies increasingly assess whether tasks handled by entry-level workers can be automated.
      • Preference for experience: Employers are “just being choosier where they are hiring,” o%en favoring candidates with some experience.
      • Quote:
        “A lot of companies [are] thinking, hey, maybe we can replace the entry level tasks that we used to have the fresh young people do, we can do with AI. And they're just being choosier…” — Alex Frangos [11:36]
    • Long-Term Career Impact:
      • Entering a bad job market can have persistent effects on graduates’ earning power and career trajectory.
      • Quote:
        “You come into a terrible job market and you're set back because your salary starts lower and your prospects are lower. And if you come in to a booming job market, your salary starts at a higher level and that's something you build on throughout your career.” — Alex Frangos [12:15]
    • Bright Spots:
      • Some sectors, like healthcare, education, and manufacturing, are still growing entry-level roles (per Handshake jobs platform).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “So you could say that we were priced at something close to perfection. And so it doesn't take much of a shift in mood for things to start coming back a bit.”
  – Quintin Webb (on tech valuations) [00:41]

• “We have seen instances where ICE has gone after American citizens and detained them for up to days at a time… This is not how policing is supposed to happen in this country.”
  – Gov. Josh Stein [05:26]

• “This policy is really interesting because it splits the hyperscalers, the tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft, and it basically gives them an exemption...”
  – Amit Ramkumar (on GAIN AI Act) [07:35]

• “A lot of companies thinking, hey, maybe we can replace the entry level tasks… with AI.”
  – Alex Frangos (on grad jobs) [11:36]

• “You come into a terrible job market and you're set back because your salary starts lower and your prospects are lower.”
  – Alex Frangos [12:15]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:33 – Stock market and tech selloff context
• 01:56 – Tech stock valuations and AI risk
• 02:35 – Delayed data and Fed rate cut uncertainty
• 03:09 – New U.S. tariffs and China economic conditions
• 05:26 – ICE operations in North Carolina; Gov. Stein’s concerns
• 07:07 – Introduction to GAIN AI Act and chip export policy
• 07:35 – Tech industry divisions revealed by chip policy
• 10:15 – Paramount, Comcast, Netflix competing for Warner
• 10:56 – The Class of 2026’s bleak job market
• 11:36 – Impact of AI and economy on entry-level hiring
• 12:15 – Long-term career impacts for 2026 grads

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Conclusion

This installment examines the interplay of market jitters, U.S. trade and tech policy, geopolitical stressors, corporate maneuvers, and above all, the historic challenges looming for new college graduates. The episode’s expert analysis underscores that 2026 graduates must navigate a stormy start—one shaped by automation, cautious employers, and the aftershocks of economic and policy shifts far beyond the campus gates.

Transcript

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[Kate Bullivant]

Stocks continue to slide this morning following yesterday's sell off on Wall street as fears over tech stocks and missing data take hold.

[Quintin Webb]

We've had this extraordinary run up in risky assets of all sorts this year. So you could say that we were priced at something close to perfection. And so it doesn't take much of a shift in mood for things to start coming back a bit.

[Kate Bullivant]

Plus, U.S. customs and Border Protection agents set their sights on North Carolina and look at why next year's graduates face the worst job market in five years. It's Friday, November 14th. I'm Kate Bullivant for the Wall Street Journal and here is the AM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. Stock futures and markets around the world are down this morning. Continuing yesterday's sell off relief on Wall street following the end of the government shutdown has given way to about whether a flood of delayed economic data could swing markets and upend bets on a December interest rate cut. U.S. stocks posted their worst day in a month yesterday with investors continuing to dump tech stocks while Bitcoin extended a recent fall, hitting its lowest level in about six months. Here's deputy finance Editor Quintin Webb.

[Quintin Webb]

The market has run up so much this year and tech stocks in particular have rallied so hard that now there has come into focus this question about whether valuations are excessive. So we are now by some measures back to sort of dot com era style valuations and there is a concern that if some of the promise of AI doesn't come to fruition or it doesn't come to fruition as quickly as people were hoping, some of the huge amounts that tech companies are starting to spend on data centers and other AI initiatives may not deliver acceptable returns. And if that starts to happen then these valuations will not look sustainable.

[Kate Bullivant]

Quintin added that fears over delayed economic data following the government shutdown are also fuelling investor uncertainty.

[Quintin Webb]

Quite possibly we'll see more evidence of some of the things that people are starting to worry about. That is more evidence of sticking inflation, perhaps more evidence of labour market weakness. The concern for investors, I suppose, is partly that we could see signs of real economic stress, but probably the primary concern is that the Fed sees enough in the data to convince it to hold off near term rate cuts.

[Kate Bullivant]

Futures pricing now shows a roughly 50% chance that Fed officials will cut rates in December. That's down from 67% a week ago and 95% a month ago. One of the data points investors are particularly worried about is inflation. Consumer prices have continued to rise during Trump's trade war, prompting the administration to now eliminate tariffs tariffs on bananas, coffee, beef and certain apparel and textile products from four Latin American countries, a senior administration official told reporters yesterday. This would happen under framework agreements with Ecuador, Argentina, El Salvador and Guatemala, saying details would be released in the coming weeks. Tariff rates of at least 10% would still apply on other products from those nations. The four countries will also reduce regulations and license requirements on U.S. companies and coordinate with Washington on trade with non market economies, including China. Meanwhile, signs of weakness continue to show in China's economy, with one measure of investment notching the sharpest slowdown in years. The January to October drop in fixed asset investment marks the first time the country has seen a decline over the first 10 months of the year, going back to at least 1992. Momentum in retail sales and industrial production also slowed last month, while the property market continue to struggle. The drop in investment could reflect China's efforts to discourage new investment in oversaturated sectors, including steel and electric vehicles. Back in the U.S. all eyes will be on Charlotte, North Carolina this weekend as federal agents from U.S. customs and Border Protection shift their focus to the Democratic led city. The local sheriff's office said it was notified by two federal officials earlier this week that ICE agents are expected in the area as early as Saturday. Speaking before that announcement, North Carolina governor Josh Stein told the Charlotte observer that he was concerned about recent tactics employed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in other cities.

[Josh Stein]

If we had absolute confidence that ICE was going to come here and they were going to go and find violent, dangerous drug traffickers and criminals and be targeted in their work, the city would welcome them with open arms. I'm almost certain of that. We haven't heard from them, so we don't know what their plans are. But we have seen instances where ICE has gone after American citizens and detained them for up to days at a time. We've seen them assault senior people. We've seen them go after people who were peacefully protesting. This is not how policing is supposed to happen in this country.

[Kate Bullivant]

It comes after A recent immigration crackdown in Chicago led by the U.S. border Patrol commander Gregory Bovino has faced scrutiny. The Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Department said it has no involvement in planning any federal activities and doesn't participate in ICE operations. Coming up, a new policy looking to regulate chip exports could give tech titans preferential access to Nvidia's coveted AI chips. More on that story after the break.

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[Kate Bullivant]

Now we're exclusively reporting that Amazon and Microsoft are getting behind a policy that could hurt chip giant Nvidia. Our supervising producer Sandra Kilhoff has more.

[Sandra Kilhoff]

The Gain AI act would effectively limit Nvidia's ability to freely export its AI chips to countries of concern like China and others with arms embargoes. Tech policy reporter Amit Ramkumar says. Instead, the policy would give U.S. tech companies preferential access to the chips.

[Amit Ramkumar]

China is the real focus because Nvidia has been trying to get access to that market and the Trump administration has been weighing whether or not to allow it to export certain products. These chips are vital for training AI models and they go into the data centers that everyone is clamoring over. This policy is really interesting because it splits the hyperscalers, the tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft, and it basically gives them an exemption to the policy that would allow them to transfer their chips from the US to overseas to places like the Middle east without needing export licenses from the government. Those export licenses have been a real pain point for these companies, and that's why they've really sort of broken from Nvidia in this way.

[Sandra Kilhoff]

Lobbying for the new policy has been going on behind closed doors, but both Microsoft and Amazon Web Services have indicated they would support the Gain AI act, while other tech titans like Meta and Google have stayed mum. And as Amrath explains, there are also divisions in Washington over how best to curtail chips to China.

[Amit Ramkumar]

The reason this is also convoluted in some ways is that the policy is an amendment to the National Defense Authorization act, which typically lands on the President's desk by the end of the year. Right now, the House and Senate leaders are negotiating the final language and which amendments will make it through, and it's really unclear if this Gain AI act will do so. It has some major supporters, including Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Elizabeth Warren, which shows that Democrats are on board in some cases. But it still needs to get key Republicans in the House leadership and Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott on board to really get across the finish line. The support from Amazon and Microsoft could be a big part of that, but on the other side, you have Nvidia spending a lot of time and energy lobbying against the bill, as are other semiconductor companies.

[Sandra Kilhoff]

Amrist says the potential divergence between tech titans is notable with Nvidia, which controls 80% of the AI processor market, calling the act an unnecessary intervention.

[Amit Ramkumar]

These are the companies that are spending tens of billions of dollars or more in some cases on these giant data centers and to buy these chips. So it does just show that policy in Washington on this chip export control issue could complicate the relationship and could evolve very rapidly. Lawmakers are very concerned about security risks associated with exporting these chips, potentially to places like China or even the Middle east, where the Chinese and others could gain access through some of those intermediaries. And this policy issue will continue to come up over and over as the a race continues for more on the.

[Kate Bullivant]

GAIN AI act and how it could shake up the US tech industry, check out amristory on WSJ.com We've left a link in our show notes now we've learned that Paramount, Comcast and Netflix are preparing bids for Warner Brothers Discovery with an initial deadline of November 20th for non binding first round offers. Warner is hoping to have the auction process completed by the end of the year, according according to people familiar with the matter. Paramount is committed to buying the entire company, while people close to Comcast and Netflix said that they're primarily interested in Warner's movie and TV studios and HBO Max. And if you're graduating in 2026, you might want to brace yourself as it's shaping up to be the worst college grad job market in five years. That's according to a survey carried out by the national association of Colleges and Employers, which found more than of 183 employers rate the job market for the class of 2026 as poor or fair. The most pessimistic outlook since the first year of the pandemic with just six months out from graduation season, Economics editor Alex Frangos explains what's behind this darkening outlook.

[Alex Frangos]

It's basically the worst hiring market for grads since the pandemic and there's a bunch of things going on. One is the overall economy. The job market seems to be plateauing. We just yesterday had this news about Verizon let off 15,000 people. And the other thing is there's AI. A lot of companies thinking, hey, maybe we can replace the entry level tasks that we used to have the fresh young people do, we can do with AI. And they're just being choosier where they are hiring. They're hiring people with a little bit of experience.

[Kate Bullivant]

And adding to the gloom. Alex says economists have found that the job market that graduates enter has a profound impact on their whole careers.

[Alex Frangos]

You come into a terrible job market and you're set back because your salary starts lower and your prospects are lower. And if you come in to a booming job market, your salary starts at a higher level and that's something you build on throughout your career. So it's pretty bad news.

[Kate Bullivant]

That said, there are a few fields where entry level jobs are growing according to job search platform handshake. This includes healthcare, education and manufacturing. And that's it for what's news for this Friday morning. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bark. Our supervising producer was Sandra Kilhoff. And I'm Kate Bullivant for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back tonight with a new show. Until then, have a great weekend and thanks for listening.

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