Alternative Indicators: What Big-Rig Truck Sales Reveal About the U.S. Economy

Summary

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WSJ What’s News: “Alternative Indicators – What Big-Rig Truck Sales Reveal About the U.S. Economy”

Date: November 17, 2025
Host: Alex Osola
Guests: Bob Tita (WSJ manufacturing reporter), Avery Weiss (VP of Trucking, FTR Transportation Intelligence)

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Episode Overview

In this special “Alternative Economic Indicators” episode, host Alex Osola delves into the surprising significance of big-rig truck sales as a window into the health of the U.S. economy. Through expert interviews and analysis, the episode explores how heavy truck sales data reflect underlying trends in freight activity, manufacturing, and broader economic momentum, while also examining complications posed by tariffs, high operating costs, and evolving regulations.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Fundamental Connection: Trucks as a Metric for Economic Activity

[00:27–01:32]

• Alex Osola sets the stage by depicting highways full of heavy trucks, explaining they’re not just moving consumer goods but the raw materials and components that drive the nation’s economic engine.
  • “If it needs to be moved around within the US, it’s probably being moved by truck.” — Alex Osola [00:52]
• Sales and orders of these trucks act as a proxy for how active the U.S. economy is; more truck purchases often mean more goods are being made and shipped—signs of economic demand and business confidence.

Historical Context and Recent Data

[01:25–03:16]

• According to Bob Tita:
  • “Declines in heavy truck sales often match up to economic contractions.” — Bob Tita [01:32]
• Current trends are downbeat:
  • August 2025: Heavy truck sales fell almost 20% year-over-year, lowest since July 2020.
  • Daimler Truck (largest U.S. maker): North American Q3 sales down 40% y/y.
  • Paccar (second-largest): U.S. and Canada sales down 34% y/y.
• Raises the critical question: Is the drop in truck sales a harbinger of a broader economic slowdown, or are other forces at play?

Truck Sales vs. Truck Orders: What's the Difference?

[03:55–05:04]

• Truck Sales: Purchases made by end-users (trucking companies, fleets).
• Truck Orders: Advance commitments, an early indicator of future economic activity.
  • “Trucking companies generally don’t buy trucks until they see freight rates and demand for freight services going up.” — Bob Tita [04:25]
• Right now, both have dropped, with inventories of unsold trucks building up—a double sign of slackening economic demand.

Drivers of the Decline

[05:04–05:45]

• Not just weak manufacturing—cost pressures matter:
  • Higher operating costs (tariffs, insurance, vehicle prices).
  • Flatter profit margins for freight haulers.
  • “Operating cost for trucks has gone up, which makes trucking companies less interested in buying them.” — Bob Tita [05:17]
• Lower demand and higher costs together put a brake on new truck purchasing.

What Do Weak Truck Orders Mean for the Economy?

[05:39–06:09]

• Indicates a slowdown, particularly in manufacturing of durable goods—a sector sensitive to economic headwinds and inflation.
  • “There’s a slowness in the economy, particularly in manufacturing of durable goods.” — Bob Tita [05:46]
  • Lower consumer demand → less freight activity → fewer truck purchases.

Digging Deeper: The Role of Tariffs and Regulations

[06:13–09:48]

• Tariffs:
  • Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on heavy trucks as of November 1, 2025.
  • However: Because most trucks are imported from Mexico under USMCA, tariffs mainly apply to non-U.S. content—actual added cost is below 10%, not 25%.
    • “Rather than being a 25% tariff on the full imported value, it probably comes out to something considerably less than 10%. That is still a significant amount of money, but… it definitely could have been worse.” — Avery Weiss [08:27]
  • Tariffs on truck components are delayed pending further review of U.S. content.
• Environmental/Emissions Rules:
  • Uncertainty around new technology rules for 2027 models.
  • Normally, companies would “pre-buy” trucks ahead of tight emissions deadlines, but regulatory uncertainty has them hesitating.

Outlook: What Do the Experts Predict?

[09:48–10:38]

• Avery Weiss forecasts tepid growth:
  • GDP growth in the 1–2% range, “not anything to get excited about.”
  • No broad recession expected, but not expecting robust growth either, at least into 2027.
    • “We are relatively positive. We don’t expect a recession. We don’t, however, expect anything very strong either, at least not until we get into 2027.” — Avery Weiss [10:28]

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Notable Quotes

• “If it needs to be moved around within the US, it’s probably being moved by truck.”
  — Alex Osola [00:52]

• “Declines in heavy truck sales often match up to economic contractions.”
  — Bob Tita [01:32]

• “Operating cost for trucks has gone up, which makes trucking companies less interested in buying them.”
  — Bob Tita [05:17]

• “Rather than being a 25% tariff on the full imported value, it probably comes out to something considerably less than 10%. That is still a significant amount of money, but… it definitely could have been worse.”
  — Avery Weiss [08:27]

• “We don’t expect a recession. We don’t, however, expect anything very strong either, at least not until we get into 2027.”
  — Avery Weiss [10:28]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:27–01:25 — Trucks as a key economic signal
• 01:25–03:16 — Truck sales and historical context; current worrying data
• 03:16–05:04 — The difference between truck sales and orders, and what weakening both means
• 05:04–05:45 — Costs and weak demand as culprits
• 06:09–06:13 — Outro with Bob Tita
• 06:13–09:48 — Tariffs and emission regulations muddy the indicator
• 09:48–10:38 — Prognosis for GDP and industry outlook

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Memorable Moments

• The revelation that despite headlines about a 25% tariff, the actual cost impact for most U.S. truck buyers is far lower—due to NAFTA/USMCA and vehicle component sourcing rules. [08:00–08:45]
• A candid view on how regulatory uncertainty (on emissions) causes real hesitation in major fleet investments. [08:42–09:48]
• Avery Weiss’s grounded prediction: “1% growth is growth… but I don’t think most people would look at 1% GDP growth as anything to get excited about.” [09:54]

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Conclusion

This installment of “What’s News” demystifies how big-rig truck sales can serve as a real-time pulse check for American industry and commerce. Current plunging sales numbers suggest a stagnant, if not contracting, manufacturing landscape, dampened further by rising costs, regulatory uncertainty, and shifting tariff policies. The overall signal is one of economic caution—neither outright recession nor meaningful rebound forecasted in the near term.

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Transcript

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[Alex Osola]

January 2025 Sometimes when I'm driving down the highway, it can feel like there's nothing else on the road but these huge trucks. A lot of them have branding on the side. Retailers like Walmart or Amazon or shipping companies like ups. But most big trucks whizzing by don't give much indication at all about what's inside. These big rigs aren't just carrying clothes and appliances and toilet paper. They're carrying the raw materials and components for these and other products. Basically, if it needs to be moved around within the US it's probably being moved by truck. Most companies hire trucking companies to do that shipping, and those trucking companies need big enough fleets to meet demand. So you could see how sales of these heavy trucks could be a sign of how much companies need to ship and so how much the economy is buzzing.

[Bob Tita]

It's an indicator certainly of freight activity, and freight activity is an indicator of the sort of general economy.

[Alex Osola]

That's my colleague Bob Tita, who covers manufacturing for the Journal. Historically, the data do what Bob says all the way back to the 1960s. Declines in heavy truck sales often match up to economic contractions. And right now truck sales aren't looking great. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that in August of this year, the most recent month data is available, thanks to the recent government shutdown, heavy truck sales fell almost 20% from the year before, hitting their lowest point since July 2020. More recently, the companies that produce the trucks say their sales are sliding. Daimler Truck, the biggest heavy truck maker in the U.S. by market share, said its North American third quarter sales fell about 40%. Packer, the second biggest, said its truck sales in the US and Canada during the same period were were down 34% from a year earlier. So does this spell bad news for the broader economy or are other factors complicating this picture? This is a special episode of what's News. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the third episode of our series on alternative economic indicators. In our first two episodes, we discussed what Nevada's employment rate and the price of copper are telling us about different aspects of the U.S. economy. Today we're turning to heavy truck sales as a gauge of the US Manufacturing sector and of the economy at large. To learn more, I first started by sitting down with my colleague Bob Chida. So we're talking today about heavy trucks. Had you heard of heavy truck orders or sales as an economic indicator before?

[Bob Tita]

Sure. It's an indicator certainly of freight activity. And freight activity is an indicator of the sort of general economy. When more things are being shipped generally, that means more things are being bought and consumed. So there certainly is a relationship.

[Alex Osola]

And is the converse also true that when there's a decline in heavy truck sales or orders, then there's a decline in manufacturing output and freight activity generally?

[Bob Tita]

Yes, that's certainly true. And we have seen that in recent months, certainly when we've had some pretty weak manufacturing activity. And that's been reflected in demand for trucks and truck services.

[Alex Osola]

Right. There are two different numbers here that have sort of come up in my reporting, truck sales and truck orders. Can you just break down what each of those means and how that tracks to the broader US Economy?

[Bob Tita]

Truck sales are generally end users, and truck orders are generally what those end users do when they buy trucks. You order them. So a lot of what actually gets tracked very closely are truck orders because it's an indication of truck sales. Trucking companies generally don't buy trucks until they see freight rates and demand for freight services going up. So a trucking company typically wouldn't buy more trucks because they think they're going to have more business six months from now. They generally buy trucks in an improving or stronger market, although lately truck orders have been very weak. And there's inventories at dealers of unsold trucks. So there's high inventory, which is also an indication of weak sales. So orders have been down and inventories have been high.

[Alex Osola]

So orders for this year have been falling. What are some of the reasons why?

[Bob Tita]

Part of it is just the weakness in manufacturing, but some of it is also higher operating costs for trucks themselves. The price has gone up because of things like tariffs and the cost of insurance has gone up. So the sort of operating cost for trucks has gone up, which makes trucking companies less interested in buying them. So the profit margins from freight hauling are pretty subdued this year.

[Alex Osola]

So if truck orders are down right now, what does that tell us about the current economy?

[Bob Tita]

Well, it's sort of an indicator that there's a somewhat of a slowness in the economy, particularly in manufacturing of durable goods. Some of that is also an indication of the effects of inflation. Higher costs for many things. People buy less, so demand is down and that's reflected in cargo and freight activity.

[Alex Osola]

That was Wall Street Journal reporter Bob Tita. Thank you so much, Bob.

[Bob Tita]

Thank you.

[Alex Osola]

Coming up, from tariffs to environmental rules, we dig into the other factors that might be affecting the relationship between heavy truck sales and the broader economy. That's after the break. Viking committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on an elegant Viking longship with thoughtful service, cultural enrichment and and all inclusive fares. Discover [e-mail]. US Heavy truck sales have been falling, and that might be saying something about how the overall economy is doing. But are there other factors that might be clouding that signal? I talked about it with Avery Weiss, vice president of trucking at data analysis and forecasting firm FDR Transportation Intelligence. One big question I had for him was about the impact of 25% tariffs that President Trump announced on heavy trucks starting November 1st. What do we know about the Trump administration's plan to impose tariffs on heavy trucks?

[Avery Weiss]

It's not as simple as saying there's a 25% tariff on all trucks based on the imported value. What it comes out to is a lot less significant in terms of cost because there are essentially no heavy duty trucks that are imported from anywhere other than Mexico. So those trucks come under the United States, Mexico Canada agreement. And under the tariff imposed on November 1st, those trucks are tariffed only for the non US content. That substantially reduces the amount of the tariff because a lot of the components that go into trucks that are assembled in Mexico come from the U.S. now, there's also going to be a tariff on key components, things like engines, transmissions, chassis, tires, and so on. But those are being put on hold for now until there's a process for determining what the US Content of those are. All in all, it's not certainly as bad for purchasers of trucks as it could have been. Rather than being a 25% tariff on the full imported value, it probably comes out to something considerably less than 10%. That is still a significant amount of money, but all in all, it definitely could have been worse.

[Alex Osola]

What are some other potential factors here?

[Avery Weiss]

Putting aside tariffs, some things that can skew it is also environmental regulation policy or emissions regulation policy. There is a rule currently in place to have a technology change at the beginning of 2027, but there's also a lot of uncertainty over what exactly the Trump administration is going to do regarding that rule. What we're barely more than a year out from that rule. By now, most trucking companies and private fleets would be starting to gear up to order more trucks so that they didn't have to pay more for those 2027 model year trucks. But the Trump administration has signaled they are reconsidering it, but they haven't done anything definitive. So that leaves everybody in a real sort of quandary is like, are we going to have an increased cost in trucks? And in a lot of cases, the truck manufacturers have already invested the R and D. In a lot of cases, even the production tooling to meet those emissions requirements have already incurred those costs and they of course, want to be paid back. So tariffs aren't the only thing. Environmental regulation is another big one.

[Alex Osola]

So based on the data, where do you think the US Economy is going? Like, where would you place your bet?

[Avery Weiss]

Up, down, middle, up, meaning growth is where we are now. That's all relative, right? I mean, you know, 1% growth is growth. But I don't think most people would look at 1% GDP growth as anything to get excited about. And really that's kind of the range we're at. We're sort of between a 1 and 2% growth. As we look ahead, we do see a little bit of softness in this quarter and next quarter due somewhat to a little bit of a softening. As we get back to normalization, we are relatively positive. We don't expect a recession. We don't, however, expect anything very strong either, at least not until we get into 2027.

[Alex Osola]

That was Avery Weiss, Vice President of Trucking for FTR Transportation Intelligence. Today's show is produced by Julie Chang with supervising producer Jana Herron. For the final installment of our Alternative Economic Indicator series, we're taking a look at liquor sales and what they can tell us about the state of the economy. That'll be in your what's News feed on Wednesday. I'm Alex Osola and we'll be back this evening with our regular show. Until then, thanks for listening.

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