Podcast Summary: WSJ What’s News

Episode: Alternative Indicators: What’s Dr. Copper’s Prognosis for the U.S. Economy?
Date: November 12, 2025
Host: Alex Osola (The Wall Street Journal)
Guest: Dec Mullarkey (Head of Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation, SLC Management)
Series: Alternative Economic Indicators

Overview

This special episode continues WSJ’s series exploring unconventional measures of economic health, focusing on copper’s long-standing reputation as a global economic barometer. The discussion features expert insights on the reliability of “Dr. Copper” for reading the U.S and world economy’s outlook in a time of mixed signals, supply uncertainty, and structural changes in demand.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Copper? (00:18–01:57)

• The hosts discuss a “murky” economic picture: strong stock market and low unemployment vs. persistent inflation and softening job prospects.
• With official government data blurred by delays and mixed messages, the episode argues for looking at alternative statistics such as copper prices.
• Traditionally, copper is viewed as a "bellwether" due to its ubiquitous use in construction, manufacturing, and technology; “High prices meant the worldwide economy was humming, and low prices meant it wasn’t.” (01:57, Host)
• Copper’s nickname, “Dr. Copper,” comes from the belief that “the metal supposedly had a PhD in economics.” (02:02, Host)

2. The Evolving Role of Copper as an Economic Indicator (02:16–03:56)

• Dec Mullarkey: “It’s a great bellwether for the economy, so people think it can diagnose what’s going on and reflect that in its price. It’s amazing how markets grab these nicknames and they just stick.” (02:16)
• Copper’s effectiveness as an indicator has changed, particularly as China’s influence has grown:
  • China’s housing and construction booms, especially since joining the WTO in 2001, made copper a metric for global and Chinese economic health.
  • Mullarkey: “Copper is the equivalent of oil. You can’t ignore it. […] So you can’t ignore copper.” (03:30, 03:59)

3. What Is Driving Copper Prices Now? (04:03–06:06)

• Host: Probes whether high copper prices signal a strong U.S. economy.
• Mullarkey:
  • Copper prices are "almost at historic high[s]" (04:11).
  • China’s construction demand has “slowed” but remains significant.
  • Major drivers now:
    • Global upgrades to aging electrical grids.
    • Surge in AI/data center construction.
    • Increase in defense spending worldwide.
    • Push for sustainable energy.
  • “We’re entering a whole tech stage. Copper is essential to all of that.” (05:10)
  • Demand is now global and spurred by synchronized shifts in infrastructure and technology.
  • “This is quite an inflection point.” (05:56)

4. Can We Still Use Copper as an Economic Indicator? (07:17–09:15)

• Host: “Would I run into trouble” if I bet solely on copper prices?
• Mullarkey:
  • It’s complicated due to sticky supply and potential substitutions:
    • Mining production responds to long-term plans, not quick surges.
    • High prices invite substitutes—“the price of copper is four times as high as aluminum… that’s the point when people start to substitute” (07:31).
    • Recycling scrap becomes key when prices spike.
  • Technology expectations, such as for AI and data centers, are “hard to handicap” and may unfold over a decade, not immediately.
  • Data centers' direct copper needs are lower than expected; the real impact is on grid upgrades that power them (08:27).
  • Markets price in anticipated, often speculative, future demand—if these expectations aren’t met, “prices could unwind” (08:50).

5. The Outlook for the U.S. Economy & Geopolitical Risks (09:15–10:40)

• Host: What do copper prices say about the U.S.?
• Mullarkey:
  • Is optimistic: “I think the US economy is going to have a strong year this year and continue with a strong year next year.” (09:21)
  • But, current copper prices in the U.S. include “potential tariff risk.” Unlike Europe, the U.S. copper market is trading at a premium because of expected tariffs—a sign of geopolitical tension (09:36).
  • Average market differentials have gone from $10 to as high as $3,000 during tariff flare-ups—“that was way, way out there.” (10:06)

6. Challenges and Contradictions: A Mixed Economic Picture (10:26–11:09)

• Host: Reflects on contradictions—strong copper, weak consumer sentiment, and job market softening.
• Mullarkey: “The first metric you ever look at in the US Economy is how is the labor market doing? And it has come off the boil. If that really goes down, you would see a fairly significant reset…” (10:40)
• Emphasizes the interdependence of consumer strength, jobs, and other “alternative indicators.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Spencer Jacob (WSJ Investing Columnist):
  "If you go into it with an open mind, you can learn some things. [...] If lots of them are turning in a certain direction, that's an indication even when you're not seeing it in the official economic data." (01:01)
• Dec Mullarkey:
  • “Copper is the equivalent of oil. You can’t ignore it.” (03:30)
  • “We’re entering a whole tech stage. Copper is essential to all of that.” (05:10)
  • “Everybody has to attend to those issues. And again, this aging infrastructure in terms of energy distribution… it’s all coming at the same time, which is historic.” (05:56)
  • "You would [run into trouble betting on copper alone]... If copper prices get out of hand, you can also find substitutes. Aluminum is one of those substitutes." (07:31)
  • “The data centers themselves, surprisingly don’t use as much copper as you would think. More of the demand will come from having to upgrade the actual grid to support the data center.” (08:27)
  • "Right now, the US is trading at a premium, reflecting the expectation of more tariffs." (09:36)
• Host:
  “I thought copper was an indicator for the US economy, but it sounds like it could be bigger than that.” (05:12)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:15–01:21 – Context: Why alternative indicators matter in a murky economy
• 01:21–02:16 – The origin of “Dr. Copper” as an economic forecaster
• 03:23–05:10 – China’s influence and the current drivers of copper demand
• 05:18–06:06 – Copper’s international role and the inflection point in global infrastructure
• 07:17–08:27 – Pitfalls of relying solely on copper and the role of supply constraints
• 08:27–09:15 – The role of AI/data centers and the challenges of predicting demand
• 09:15–10:26 – Tariffs, geopolitical risk, and why U.S. copper is at a premium
• 10:36–11:09 – Labor market contradictions and what to watch out for
• 11:09–11:42 – Preview: Next in the series—manufacturing and heavy truck sales

Tone and Style

The conversation is clear, data-driven, and pragmatic—blending skepticism about over-reliance on any single indicator, with curiosity about what signals can be gleaned in a fast-changing economic environment. Mullarkey offers nuanced, real-world perspective without hype, making the complexities understandable for a general audience.

Conclusion

This episode offers a timely, nuanced look at copper’s role as a global and U.S. economic indicator. It outlines historical shifts, current drivers, and emerging risks, while cautioning against simplistic readings. The overarching message: copper is vital, but it’s only one piece of a complex economic puzzle—valuable for context but not a crystal ball.