Dan Michaels (3:02)

Security guarantees are one of, I'd say, two critical issues. So on security guarantees, the question is, what exactly would the US Do? What do those security guarantees look like? European countries, including Great Britain and France, have said they would be willing to put soldiers into Ukraine to enforce some kind of ceasefire. The US doesn't seem ready to do that, but there are a lot of things it could do. And what the choices the US make on that front are critical. It could be everything from transportation of troops, provision of weapons, and intelligence systems. It could be monitoring a ceasefire, either with satellites, with drones, or something more active. So what the US Chooses to bring to bear is very much an open question. And the other issue is, is really what on the ground is up for negotiations in terms of territory. And that's what Putin is pushing and the Ukrainians are pushing back on.

Azhar Sucri (4:02)

Right. So on that front, from what we've seen so far, what are the possible endings for this war?

Dan Michaels (4:09)

It seems that what Putin is pushing for is for Ukraine to surrender territory that Russia has not been able to take on the battlefield. They haven't been able to do it with guns and with bombs. So now he wants to do it at the negotiating table. And Zelenskyy is taking a very strong position against that, backed up by the European leaders who say that territory should not be changed by force, and that changes to either Ukrainian or Russian territories should only be done through negotiations, not in war. And that was the position that Trump seemed to take last week. But this week, it's not clear what his position on that is. And he seems to be putting pressure on Zelensky to come to the table and. And make a deal, potentially on Russia's terms.

Azhar Sucri (4:59)

It's Brussels bureau chief Dan Michaels. Thank you so much.

Dan Michaels (5:02)

Good to be with you.

Azhar Sucri (5:07)

More travel disruptions could be ahead for Air Canada passengers today after the union representing the airline's 10,000 flight attendants said it would defy the Canadian government's return to work order and continue its strike for another day. The union said it'll request that a judge block Ottawa's order that imposed binding arbitration to resolve a labour dispute between the union and the carrier. In part, overpay. Air Canada transports roughly 130,000 passengers a day and operates nearly 200 flights daily to the U.S. the airline said yesterday it intends to resume flights as of this evening. However, the union said it remains on strike until its bid is heard. And we are exclusively reporting that a group of investors led by one of the country's biggest hotel owners is nearing a deal to take Soho House private, ending a months long contest over the fate of the members club operator. The group, led by New York based MCR Hotels, is expected to pay around $9 a share for the company's outstanding public stock, valuing Soho house at around $1.8 billion excluding debt. Billionaire Ron Burkle, the current shareholder, is expected to roll over his stake alongside others. Investment giant Apollo Global Management was also central to the deal, which could be announced as soon as today. Coming up, we'll tell you about how a slowdown in job switching and moving is stalling America's mobility with big economic consequences for everyone. That story after the now if you feel like your options for getting a new home or job are limited, you're probably not alone. Americans are moving to new homes and cities at around the lowest rates on record. Companies have fewer roles for entry level workers trying to launch their careers and workers who do have jobs are hanging onto them. Economics reporter Konrad Putsia says that's leading some analysts to question the future of the country's trademark economic dynamism. Konrad firstly explain what is happening in the housing market and the job market and why they're interlinked.

Conrad Puzia (7:31)

Yeah, so there are really three things that are happening at the same time that are all connected. First off, people aren't really switching jobs. They're not getting hired, they're not getting laid off. Then you have the housing market being completely frozen. People aren't buying houses and not selling houses. It's really at some of the lowest rates we've seen in decades. And then finally, people aren't moving, they're not moving new cities, they're not moving to new states at nearly the same rate that they used to. So those trends are all connected. And it's really a very startling phenomenon because we think of America as this very dynamic place, right. Compared to countries like Spain or Italy. It's always been easier to get a job. And for better or worse, it's also been easier to get fired to lose your job. And it's always been easy to move long distances. And this mobility, this ability of people to just move around, switch jobs, buy and sell houses, it's really defined the American economy for a really long time and it's been a big source of its strength. And now we've seen that weaken.

Azhar Sucri (8:24)

So all this begs the question, Conrad, as to why, why are we seeing all of this now?

Conrad Puzia (8:30)

So the long term trend is this decline in mobility that we've seen for decades. So we have fewer people moving and Fewer people switching jobs gradually each decade, and no one knows exactly why that is. The most convincing theories that we've heard are just an aging population, right? There's fewer young people as a share of the population. And if you're older, you're just more settled, you're less likely to move, you're less likely to want to switch jobs. Another factor that we think plays an important role is that there are now more households with two wage earners than there were, say, in the 1960s. And what that means is if two people in your family work, it makes it harder to move somewhere else, right? Because say one parent gets a job in a different city, but the other parent has a job in the city that they're already in. That really complicates things, right? And might make you decide to not take that job up somewhere else. But on top of those fundamental long running trends, we have everything that's been going on the last two years, which is this incredible surge in interest rates, which have made the housing market really unaffordable and have made it really hard to sell your house or buy your house. High interest rates have also hurt hiring. They're weighing on companies. They make it more expensive to run your business. And then on top of that, you have all this economic uncertainty. No one really knows where the economy is heading. No one still really knows where tariffs are going to end up and what they mean. And so a lot of companies are just sitting tight.

Azhar Sucri (9:53)

So what are the consequences of these trends, both for individuals and the economy as a whole?

Conrad Puzia (9:59)

This decline in dynamism has real economic consequences. The really obvious one is that it creates this divide between winners and losers, between the people who have a job, between the people who have a house, and between the people who don't have a job and can't find one, and don't have a house and can't afford to buy one, because mortgage rates are incredibly high. And the risk there is that this divide persists and becomes stronger. And there's some research that suggests that if people don't get a good job after graduating from college pretty quickly, they often fall behind for good. And even 10 years later, they still won't recover fully economically from falling behind so soon. And then just from a pure economic productivity standpoint, it's a really big deal, because in a successful economy, you want everyone to be where their talents are best used. So think of it from a worker's perspective. You're in a city where there aren't many good jobs and you could maybe move to San Francisco, where there's lots of job openings, for example. But if you can't do that for a number of reasons, because, for example, the housing there is so expensive and you can't sell your own house, that means you can't take better jobs and you make less money and you spend less money, and that hurts the economy. And the same from a company's perspective, if you have a bunch of job openings but you can't get people to actually move to your location, that means you produce less and you make less money. And in turn, you know, you pay less in taxes and you hire fewer people. So this lack of mobility really ripples through the economy, and the longer it persists, the more it hurts growth.

Azhar Sucri (11:28)

Economics reporter Conrad Puzia, thank you so much. That's really interesting.

Conrad Puzia (11:33)

Thanks for having me.

Azhar Sucri (11:34)

And that's it for what's news for this Monday morning. Today's show was produced by Kate Bullivant and Caitlin McCabe. Our supervising producer was Daniel Bark. I'm Azhar Sucri for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back tonight with a new show.

Conrad Puzia (11:48)

Until then, thanks for listening.