Assad’s Fall Marks a New Era for Syria

Summary

WSJ What’s News: "Assad’s Fall Marks a New Era for Syria" – December 9, 2024

Hosted by Luke Vargas | Produced by Kate Bullivant and Daniel Bach

---

Introduction

In this episode of WSJ What’s News, hosted by Luke Vargas, the Wall Street Journal delves into the seismic shift in Syria's political landscape following the swift ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. Amidst this groundbreaking development, the podcast also touches upon significant international and business news, providing listeners with a comprehensive overview of events shaping the world today.

---

Top Story: The Overthrow of Assad and Its Implications for Syria

1. Rapid Collapse of the Assad Regime

The centerpiece of this episode is the rapid downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime after more than five decades in power. Rebel fighters, led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), orchestrated an unprecedented 11-day military campaign that culminated in the capture of Damascus, Syria’s capital.

• Luke Vargas highlights, “[Rebel fighters] have ousted the Assad regime that ruled the country for a half century. In a remarkable 11 day blitz...” ([00:25]).

2. Insights from Jared Malson on the Regime's Fall

Middle East correspondent Jared Malson provides an in-depth analysis of how the rebels succeeded where decades of conflict had seemingly solidified Assad’s hold.

• When asked, "How did the Syrian rebel groups manage to pull this off?" ([01:41]), Malson explains, “This started with a surprise attack on the city of Aleppo... regime's forces were revealed to be hollowed… underpaid soldiers who are underfed and exhausted from years of war.”

He emphasizes the effectiveness of the rebel forces, noting their coordination and preparation, which contrasted sharply with the weakened state of Assad’s military.

3. The Role of International Support Falling Away

A critical factor in Assad’s downfall was the withdrawal of support from key allies.

• Malson states, “He [Assad] has fled to Russia... this is a historic moment for Syria where you had Assad and his father who had together ruled Syria for more than 50 years. And now that government has been swept away” ([02:45]).

This cessation of backing from Russia and Iran, who had been instrumental in maintaining Assad's regime, significantly weakened his position.

4. The Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)

HTS, formerly linked to Al Qaeda, has attempted to rebrand itself as a more nationalist and inclusive group.

• Malson outlines, “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham... have for years been trying to rebrand themselves as more of a nationalist, more mainstream rebel group. And Jelani himself says that he's given up extremism...” ([03:32]).

The group’s leader, Abu Muhammad Al Jalani, has publicly committed to governing Syria in a pluralistic manner, though skepticism remains.

5. International Reactions and Future Governance

President Biden has signaled a cautious approach, stating, “We will assess not just their words, but their actions” ([04:07]).

The inclusive governance model HTS proposes faces significant challenges given Syria’s diverse and sectarian history.

• Malson warns, “This is a country that's endured a lot of trauma... how will HTS and other rebel groups treat the Alawite religious minority...?” ([04:21]).

6. Regional Implications: Setbacks for Russia and Iran

The overthrow of Assad marks a substantial geopolitical shift.

• Malson explains, “It's a huge setback for both Russia and Iran... for Iran, Syria was a huge symbol of its ability to project power...” ([05:13]).

Rebel groups are now actively working to diminish Iranian influence, including assaults on Iranian military bases in northern Syria.

7. Potential Risks and the Road Ahead for Syria

Despite the regime’s fall, significant risks remain.

• Malson highlights concerns such as the potential proliferation of chemical weapons and the possibility of a power vacuum leading to chaos: “For instance, chemical weapons could fall into the wrong hands, control of territory could slip...” ([06:01]).

HTS has indicated a willingness to dissolve the group to facilitate a more inclusive governance structure, but the transition's success remains uncertain.

---

Additional Headlines

1. Trump’s Plans to Curtail Birthright Citizenship

President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team is reportedly preparing an executive order to eliminate automatic citizenship for individuals born in the U.S. This would require at least one parent to be a U.S. citizen or permanent resident and could involve stricter visa criteria to deter birth tourism. Legal experts caution that such changes would likely face immediate judicial challenges ([07:49]).

2. Political Turmoil in South Korea

South Korea faces political instability as President Yoon Suk Yeol faces ongoing impeachment efforts. Despite evading an impeachment vote recently, public sentiment remains overwhelmingly against him, leading opposition parties to persistently push for his removal. This turmoil has negatively impacted South Korea’s Kospi stock index and the won’s value against the dollar ([07:15]).

3. Omnicom Group’s Potential Acquisition of Inter Public Group

Omnicom Group is in advanced negotiations to acquire Inter Public Group in an all-stock deal valued between $13-14 billion, potentially making it the world’s largest advertising company. Industry executives express that the merger would bolster resources to compete against tech giants leveraging AI ([09:10]).

4. Macy’s Faces Activist Investor Pressure

Barrington Capital has amassed a significant stake in Macy’s and is lobbying for strategic changes, including the creation of a separate real estate unit. The investor believes Macy’s real estate holdings are undervalued and seeks to unlock additional shareholder value ([10:06]).

5. China’s Economic Strategy Amid Weak Inflation

China’s top decision-making body has pledged to implement more proactive fiscal policies and consider additional monetary easing to combat persistent weaknesses in domestic demand, as indicated by recent inflation figures ([10:49]).

---

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a preview of upcoming events, including Oracle’s earnings report and the WSJ CEO Council Summit featuring prominent leaders like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. These discussions are set to address key topics such as policy, security, and economic outlooks ([10:49]).

Produced by Kate Bullivant, Daniel Bach, and Christina Rocca.

---

Notable Quotes:

• Jared Malson ([01:43]): “This is a story about how the regime's forces were revealed to be hollowed… they have spent years preparing for this.”

• Jared Malson ([03:32]): “HTS... have for years been trying to rebrand themselves as more of a nationalist, more mainstream rebel group.”

• President Biden ([04:07]): “We will assess not just their words, but their actions.”

• Jared Malson ([05:13]): “It's a huge setback for both Russia and Iran... for Iran, Syria was a huge symbol of its ability to project power.”

---

This detailed summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the WSJ What’s News episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who have not tuned in.

Transcript

[Amazon Representative]

Amazon Q Business is the Generative AI Assistant from aws, because business can be slow, like wading through mud. But Amazon Q helps streamline work, so tasks like summarizing monthly results can be done in no time. Learn what Amazon Q Business can do for [e-mail] learnmore.

[Luke Vargas]

An uncertain new chapter for Syria as rebels topple the Assad.

[Jared Malson]

Government They've gone to great lengths to say that they want to rule the country for all Syrians, but this is really the test. Will they in fact rule in a way that's pluralistic, or will they rule in a way that is more in keeping with their roots as a jihadist organization?

[Luke Vargas]

Plus, new details on the incoming Trump administration's plans to curb birthright citizenship and a major potential tie up in the advertising world. It's Monday, December 9th. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of what's the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. Rebel fighters in Syria have ousted the Assad regime that ruled the country for a half century. In a remarkable 11 day blitz. Rebels led by a group known as HTS that was for years based in a small pocket of territory in Syria's northwest, captured one city after another before arriving in the capital, Damascus yesterday, where they were greeted with celebrations. So how did they manage, in short fashion, to topple a regime that had survived more than a decade of civil war? And what's next for Syria and for the region? With more, I'm joined by Journal Middle east correspondent Jared Malson. Jared, how did the Syrian rebel groups.

[Correspondent]

Manage to pull this off?

[Jared Malson]

Well, this started with a surprise attack on the city of Aleppo, and what happened is that the regime's forces crumbled in the face of this offensive, and that momentum spurred the rebels on to this march on Damascus that happened over the weekend. This is a story about how the regime's forces were revealed to be hollowed. These are underpaid soldiers who are underfed and who are exhausted from years of war. And they met a rebel force that was well coordinated, that was trained, that had spent years preparing for this. And once it became clear that the regime couldn't hold onto major cities, it was just a question from there of other rebel groups joining the fight and officers in the regime realizing that the war had been lost.

[Luke Vargas]

And crucially, Jared's support from Russia and.

[Correspondent]

Iran, countries that have played a key role in helping Bashar al Assad stay.

[Luke Vargas]

In power in recent years, fell away.

[Correspondent]

At the last minute as well.

[Jared Malson]

That's correct. He has fled to Russia, according to the Russian government. And this is a historic moment for Syria where you had Assad and his father who had together ruled Syria for more than 50 years. And now that government has been swept away. And this is something that millions of Syrians have been hoping for for years, ever since they rose up against him in 2011.

[Correspondent]

All right, so Assad out turning the.

[Luke Vargas]

Page on a long chapter in Syrian history.

[Correspondent]

And now new groups in the mix, most notably Hayat Tahrir Al Sham and their leader, Abu Muhammad Al Jalani, who entered Damascus yesterday. What should we know about this group and him in particular, and how they might rule based on what we know about them?

[Jared Malson]

So Hayatahridasham, known by the acronym hts, of course, used to be part of Al Qaeda's branch in Syria. They said they severed ties with Al Qaeda years ago, and they have for years been trying to rebrand themselves as more of a nationalist, more mainstream rebel group. And Jelani himself says that he's given up extremism and they've gone to great lengths to say that they want to protect minority groups, that they want to rule the country for all Syrians.

[Luke Vargas]

Right. As President Biden said On this, the.

[Correspondent]

U.S. quote, will assess not just their words, but their actions, end quote. And given that Syria is a diverse country with multiple religions and groups that have been pitted against one another, Right.

[Luke Vargas]

In the course of the civil war, how you govern, given that history is.

[Correspondent]

Going to be quite a sensitive issue.

[Jared Malson]

Right. And it's going to be difficult because this is a country that's endured a lot of trauma and because the Assad regime itself exploited those sectarian differences in its war against the rebels by attacking largely Sunni Muslim people in rebel held areas. The rebels themselves obviously largely made up of Sunni Muslims. And now one major question is how will HTS and other rebel groups treat the Alawite religious minority of which Assad was a member? And we're about to find out.

[Correspondent]

So big questions for what happens within Syria. And of course, this all coming at a pivotal time for the region. You know, encapsulated by the flurry of international comments about what is going on. What could this transition for Syria mean.

[Luke Vargas]

More broadly for the Middle East?

[Jared Malson]

Well, number one, it's a huge setback for both Russia and Iran. Syria is Russia's foothold for really its military presence globally. It's how it projects power into the Middle east and Africa. For Iran, Syria was a huge symbol of its ability to project power and station its military forces near Israel. Those militias, including Hezbollah, were fighting on Assad's side. Rebel groups are anti Iran. They have already been storming, they say, some Iranian bases in northern Syria. So there's no question that they're going to want to roll back the influence of one of Assad's main allies in.

[Correspondent]

Syria, a devastating blow for Russia and Iran. Then, though, there's still the risk, right, of a worst case scenario here in which Syria remains lawless.

[Luke Vargas]

For instance, chemical weapons could fall into.

[Correspondent]

The wrong hands, control of territory could slip and all of that kind of creating a chaotic environment.

[Luke Vargas]

We're already seeing Israel launching preemptive strikes today in the country.

[Correspondent]

So still a lot of concern about.

[Luke Vargas]

What could happen next here.

[Jared Malson]

There's a lot of obvious concern about what happens next. But these are all questions that are about to be decided by Syrians. Jelani himself has said that they're considering dissolving HTS in order to pave way for governing structures that might be broader and more inclusive. These rebel groups are still taking control of the country from the government, handing over institutions, opening up prisons that have held thousands of political prisoners for years. That transformation is still unfolding right now. And these tests of governance I think we'll see unfold in the coming weeks, months and years.

[Correspondent]

I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal Middle east correspondent Jared Malson.

[Luke Vargas]

Jared, thank you so much for bringing us this story.

[Jared Malson]

Thank you.

[Luke Vargas]

Coming up, Donald Trump prepares for a legal fight over his plans to curtail so called birthright citizenship and a possible merger that could create an ad industry behemoth.

[Correspondent]

That and more after the break.

[IBM Representative]

Your business deploys AI pilots everywhere. But are they going anywhere or are they stuck in silos, exhausting resources, unable to scale? Maybe you don't need hundreds of AI pilots. You need a holistic strategy. IBM has 65,000 consultants with gen AI expertise who can help you design, integrate and optimize AI solutions. So you're not just deploying AI, you're scaling it across your business. Learn [e-mail] consulting. IBM, let's create.

[Luke Vargas]

We are reporting that President elect Donald Trump's transition team is preparing a day one executive order to curtail automatic citizenship for anyone born in the U.S. according to people familiar with the matter. That includes drafting several versions of the directive Trump promised but didn't sign, an outright ban of birthright citizenship in his first term. Among the steps under consideration are directing federal agencies to require that a child have at least one parent who's a US Citizen or permanent resident, and stopping agencies from issuing passports, Social Security numbers and other welfare benefits to children who don't. Trump is also expected to seek to deter what his allies call birth tourism, possibly by tightening criteria for tourist visas. Many constitutional scholars and civil rights groups say those changes can't be done through executive action and would require changing the constitution. And Trump's team is aware his order would almost immediately be challenged in court. South Korea's embattled president, who briefly instituted martial law last week, will no longer be involved in running the country or diplomacy. That's according to the leader of South Korea's ruling party, who called President Yoon Suk Yeol unfit to lead and argued the move would stabilize state affairs. Though Yoon managed to stave off an impeachment vote over the weekend, about three quarters of South Koreans want to see him gone, and opposition parties have pledged to keep calling impeachment votes every week until they're successful. South Korea's Kospi stock index fell for a fourth straight session today, with the won also weakening against the dollar. We are exclusively reporting that Omnicom Group is in advanced talks to acquire Inter Public Group, a deal that would unseat WPP as the world's largest advertising company. The exact terms being discussed couldn't be learned, but according to people familiar with the matter, the all stock deal will likely value interpublic at between 13 and 14 billion dollars, excluding debt, and a transaction could be announced as early as this week. Ben Dummett covers MA for the Journal.

[Ben Dummett]

The deal would give the combined entity a lot more resources to deal with an industry that's increasingly under pressure to gain scale as they deal with drivers such as technology, data and artificial intelligence. Ad companies are facing new competition from tech giants such as Alphabets, Google and Meta, platforms that are using AI to drive deeper into the business. The threat is obviously real for these traditional ad agencies. Research firm Forster said last year that automation could eliminate some 33,000 jobs at these ad agencies by 2030, with various forms of AI being responsible for a significant portion of those losses.

[Luke Vargas]

Inter Public shares are soaring in off hours trading while Omnicom stock is down. And while Madison Avenue firms have to contend with tougher competition, the overall picture for the advertising industry is looking rather rosy. According to a forecast from Group M, a WPP unit, Global Global ad revenue is set to top $1 trillion for the first time in 2024, a year earlier than previously expected. That's as many US consumers continue to spend despite high borrowing costs and cautious guidance from retailers. And we've got another journal exclusive for you as activist investor Barrington Capital has built a position in Macy's and plans to push the company to make changes to boost its slumping stock, including the creation of a separate real estate unit. Barrington, which has teamed up with property owner Thor equities on its investment, believes Macy's real estate alone is worth between 5 and 9 billion dollars more than the entire company's current market value. The investor is expected to disclose its stake today. And in other news that could move markets, China has signaled a more forceful approach to boosting its economy with its top decision making body today pledging to implement more proactive fiscal policy and hinting at more monetary easing in the new. The announcement comes as November inflation figures today pointed to persistent weakness in domestic demand. On deck today, cloud giant Oracle is due to report earnings after the closing bell and the Journal's CEO Council Summit kicks off in Washington, with movers and shakers including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the CEOs of MasterCard, Chubb and the New York Stock Exchange Group taking the stage over the next two days to discuss policy, security and the economy. All the details, including how to tune in, can be found on WSJ.com and that's it for what's News for Monday morning. Today's show was produced by Kate Bullivant.

[Correspondent]

And Daniel Bach, with supervising producer Christina Rocca.

[Luke Vargas]

And I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.

[Google Representative]

How is AI pushing the boundaries of what's possible, not just in the way we live and work, but in addressing some of humanity's toughest challenges? Find out in the latest episode of AI that Means Business, a new podcast from Google and custom content from WSJ.