WSJ What’s News: "Assad’s Fall Marks a New Era for Syria" – December 9, 2024

Hosted by Luke Vargas | Produced by Kate Bullivant and Daniel Bach

Introduction

In this episode of WSJ What’s News, hosted by Luke Vargas, the Wall Street Journal delves into the seismic shift in Syria's political landscape following the swift ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. Amidst this groundbreaking development, the podcast also touches upon significant international and business news, providing listeners with a comprehensive overview of events shaping the world today.

Top Story: The Overthrow of Assad and Its Implications for Syria

1. Rapid Collapse of the Assad Regime

The centerpiece of this episode is the rapid downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime after more than five decades in power. Rebel fighters, led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), orchestrated an unprecedented 11-day military campaign that culminated in the capture of Damascus, Syria’s capital.

• Luke Vargas highlights, “[Rebel fighters] have ousted the Assad regime that ruled the country for a half century. In a remarkable 11 day blitz...” ([00:25]).

2. Insights from Jared Malson on the Regime's Fall

Middle East correspondent Jared Malson provides an in-depth analysis of how the rebels succeeded where decades of conflict had seemingly solidified Assad’s hold.

• When asked, "How did the Syrian rebel groups manage to pull this off?" ([01:41]), Malson explains, “This started with a surprise attack on the city of Aleppo... regime's forces were revealed to be hollowed… underpaid soldiers who are underfed and exhausted from years of war.”

He emphasizes the effectiveness of the rebel forces, noting their coordination and preparation, which contrasted sharply with the weakened state of Assad’s military.

3. The Role of International Support Falling Away

A critical factor in Assad’s downfall was the withdrawal of support from key allies.

• Malson states, “He [Assad] has fled to Russia... this is a historic moment for Syria where you had Assad and his father who had together ruled Syria for more than 50 years. And now that government has been swept away” ([02:45]).

This cessation of backing from Russia and Iran, who had been instrumental in maintaining Assad's regime, significantly weakened his position.

4. The Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)

HTS, formerly linked to Al Qaeda, has attempted to rebrand itself as a more nationalist and inclusive group.

• Malson outlines, “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham... have for years been trying to rebrand themselves as more of a nationalist, more mainstream rebel group. And Jelani himself says that he's given up extremism...” ([03:32]).

The group’s leader, Abu Muhammad Al Jalani, has publicly committed to governing Syria in a pluralistic manner, though skepticism remains.

5. International Reactions and Future Governance

President Biden has signaled a cautious approach, stating, “We will assess not just their words, but their actions” ([04:07]).

The inclusive governance model HTS proposes faces significant challenges given Syria’s diverse and sectarian history.

• Malson warns, “This is a country that's endured a lot of trauma... how will HTS and other rebel groups treat the Alawite religious minority...?” ([04:21]).

6. Regional Implications: Setbacks for Russia and Iran

The overthrow of Assad marks a substantial geopolitical shift.

• Malson explains, “It's a huge setback for both Russia and Iran... for Iran, Syria was a huge symbol of its ability to project power...” ([05:13]).

Rebel groups are now actively working to diminish Iranian influence, including assaults on Iranian military bases in northern Syria.

7. Potential Risks and the Road Ahead for Syria

Despite the regime’s fall, significant risks remain.

• Malson highlights concerns such as the potential proliferation of chemical weapons and the possibility of a power vacuum leading to chaos: “For instance, chemical weapons could fall into the wrong hands, control of territory could slip...” ([06:01]).

HTS has indicated a willingness to dissolve the group to facilitate a more inclusive governance structure, but the transition's success remains uncertain.

Additional Headlines

1. Trump’s Plans to Curtail Birthright Citizenship

President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team is reportedly preparing an executive order to eliminate automatic citizenship for individuals born in the U.S. This would require at least one parent to be a U.S. citizen or permanent resident and could involve stricter visa criteria to deter birth tourism. Legal experts caution that such changes would likely face immediate judicial challenges ([07:49]).

2. Political Turmoil in South Korea

South Korea faces political instability as President Yoon Suk Yeol faces ongoing impeachment efforts. Despite evading an impeachment vote recently, public sentiment remains overwhelmingly against him, leading opposition parties to persistently push for his removal. This turmoil has negatively impacted South Korea’s Kospi stock index and the won’s value against the dollar ([07:15]).

3. Omnicom Group’s Potential Acquisition of Inter Public Group

Omnicom Group is in advanced negotiations to acquire Inter Public Group in an all-stock deal valued between $13-14 billion, potentially making it the world’s largest advertising company. Industry executives express that the merger would bolster resources to compete against tech giants leveraging AI ([09:10]).

4. Macy’s Faces Activist Investor Pressure

Barrington Capital has amassed a significant stake in Macy’s and is lobbying for strategic changes, including the creation of a separate real estate unit. The investor believes Macy’s real estate holdings are undervalued and seeks to unlock additional shareholder value ([10:06]).

5. China’s Economic Strategy Amid Weak Inflation

China’s top decision-making body has pledged to implement more proactive fiscal policies and consider additional monetary easing to combat persistent weaknesses in domestic demand, as indicated by recent inflation figures ([10:49]).

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a preview of upcoming events, including Oracle’s earnings report and the WSJ CEO Council Summit featuring prominent leaders like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. These discussions are set to address key topics such as policy, security, and economic outlooks ([10:49]).

Produced by Kate Bullivant, Daniel Bach, and Christina Rocca.

Notable Quotes:

• Jared Malson ([01:43]): “This is a story about how the regime's forces were revealed to be hollowed… they have spent years preparing for this.”

• Jared Malson ([03:32]): “HTS... have for years been trying to rebrand themselves as more of a nationalist, more mainstream rebel group.”

• President Biden ([04:07]): “We will assess not just their words, but their actions.”

• Jared Malson ([05:13]): “It's a huge setback for both Russia and Iran... for Iran, Syria was a huge symbol of its ability to project power.”

This detailed summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the WSJ What’s News episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who have not tuned in.