What’s News in Markets: Inflation Cools, Oil Refiners Push Stocks Up, Reddit Joins S&P 500 - WSJ What’s News

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This podcast is brought to you by relioQuest. Cybercriminals are constantly attacking. They want your data. They want your identity. They want your innovation. RelioQuest fortifies your business with agentic defense AI that detects, contains and eliminates cyber threats in minutes. It helps your security team move faster at the work that matters most to protect the business now and delivers insights to help them predict what's next. ReliaQuest agentic defense for the enterprise. Learn more at reliaquest.com that's R E L I A Q U E-S-T.com hey
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listeners, it's Saturday, August 15th. I'm Shraddha Dinesh for the Wall Street Journal, and this is what's News in Markets. Our look at the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Let's get to Was a big week for economic data. The Labor Department reported that the annual inflation rate fell slightly in July, cooling to 3.4%, while core prices rose by 2.5% over the past 12 months. That reading essentially ties February's the lowest recorded since 2021. Wholesale prices were unchanged in July, defying predictions from economists who expected a rise. Then, on Friday, the Commerce Department reported U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, falling short of the small increase economists had forecast. And the preliminary August reading of The University of Michigan's monthly consumer sentiment survey came in at 51, down from 55.2 in July, also falling short of economists expectations. The survey's director said persistent price increases and concerns about the economic effects of the Iran conflict are still weighing on shoppers. Any further evidence of a weaker consumer could factor into the thinking of Federal Reserve policymakers, who are weighing whether elevated inflation warrants raising interest rates in the months ahead. Overall, the Nasdaq was up about 0.1% for the week, the Dow fell just below 0.6% for the week, and the S&P 500 settled up at roughly 0.3% for the week. It's not just AI stocks moving the S&P 500 higher. Old school energy companies are joining tech to push the index to new records. A series of disruptions from the Iran war and Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to China's restrictions on fuel exports has pulled millions of barrels of refined products off global markets, leaving consumers scrambling to locate alternative supplies. As a result, refining margins the difference between the cost of crude and the value of the fuels produced from it have surged, with strait of hormuz flows unlikely to normalize anytime soon, and repairs to Gulf refineries targeted by Iranian attacks expected to take months, the market could remain tight, boosting those margins globally. They're expected to remain high for the rest of the year. While that's likely to be welcome news for oil majors come earning season, it's bad for drivers at the pump. The US average gasoline price topped $4 a gallon this year, up from $3.16 a year ago. It's been a great quarter for earnings, both earnings growth and the so called surprise ratio. That's the share of companies exceeding analyst expectations are sitting near historic highs. WSJ investing columnist Spencer Jacob wrote about how that seems to be creating a strong sense of optimism among companies and how it's being reflected in their guidance. Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group say the rolling average of positive to negative earnings guidance is now near a four year high for the companies they track. That's especially notable because companies are typically cautious about raising guidance since the market tends to punish them for falling short. In fact, the only time this ratio was higher was during the pandemic recovery period. And there's a new face joining the S&P 500 just two years after going public, social media platform Reddit will join the index this coming Tuesday. It'll replace real estate investment trust Avalon Bay Communities, which is merging with Fellow S&P 500 member Equity Residential, creating an open spot. Reddit shares rose over 12% Friday. It's a turnaround for the stock, which was down nearly a third this year on concerns AI models would divert traffic away from Reddit's message boards. Though its stock has struggled amid the latest tech boom, Reddit is the most cited website in AI answers, according to the AI visibility data firm Parse. That's turned the platform into a core focus for brands and marketers looking to influence chatbots, according to a report from WSJ Leadership Institute reporter Katie Dayton. As of July, companies needed a market capitalization of at least $22.7 billion to be eligible for the S&P 500. Reddit cleared that bar, ending Thursday with a market cap of over $30 billion. And now you know what's news in markets this week. You can read about more stocks that moved on the week's news in our live markets coverage on WSJ.com today's show was produced by Julie Chang with supervising producer Katie Ferguson. I'm Shraddha Dinesh. Have a great weekend and see you next Saturday.
[06:24]
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I'm Laura Thoreau with Baird Private Wealth Management. You've been doing all the right things saving, investing, building toward your goals. Healthcare can be a major expense today, and an even greater one over time. Tools like long term care insurance or a smart health savings account strategy can help protect what you've worked so hard to build. Learn more@bairdwealth.com WSJguidebook.

Summary4 min read

WSJ What’s News in Markets: Inflation Cools, Oil Refiners Push Stocks Up, Reddit Joins S&P 500

Date: August 15, 2026
Host: Shraddha Dinesh, The Wall Street Journal

Episode Overview

This week’s episode covers significant market movers and economic updates, including cooling inflation data, surging profits for oil refiners amid geopolitical turmoil, and the addition of Reddit to the S&P 500. Host Shraddha Dinesh analyzes the numbers behind this week’s economic releases and their impact on equity markets, while also spotlighting notable trends and surprises in earnings reports.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Economic Data: Inflation, Retail Sales, and Consumer Sentiment

Inflation:
- U.S. annual inflation rate cooled slightly to 3.4% in July; core inflation rose by 2.5% over 12 months—equivalent to the lowest core reading since 2021.
  - “That reading essentially ties February’s—the lowest recorded since 2021.” (00:51)
- Wholesale prices remained flat, against expectations for an increase.
Retail Sales:
- Retail sales declined by 0.6% for July, missing economist forecasts for a modest uptick.
Consumer Sentiment:
- The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 51 in August (from 55.2 in July), also below expectations.
  - Sentiment weighed down by persistent price concerns and the economic fallout from the Iran conflict.

2. Implications for Federal Reserve Policy

Weakening consumer sentiment and spending could influence the Fed’s decision-making process as it considers whether current inflation levels justify further interest rate hikes.
- “Any further evidence of a weaker consumer could factor into the thinking of Federal Reserve policymakers…” (01:52)

3. Market Recap: Indices Performance

Nasdaq: Up 0.1% for the week
Dow Jones: Down 0.6%
S&P 500: Increased by 0.3%
- The movement in indices shows diverse sector performance and investor reaction to mixed economic data.

4. Oil Refiners Drive Stock Gains amid Geopolitical Disruptions

Old-school energy companies are rallying alongside tech stocks.
Geopolitical tensions—Iran war, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and China’s fuel export restrictions—have removed millions of barrels from the global market.
Refining margins (difference between crude oil cost and value of final fuels) have surged and are expected to remain high through year-end.
Consumers face rising gasoline prices:
- U.S. average exceeds $4/gallon, up from $3.16 last year.
  - “That’s likely to be welcome news for oil majors… It’s bad for drivers at the pump.” (03:22)

5. Strong Corporate Earnings and Optimistic Guidance

It’s been a “great quarter” for both earnings growth and surprises—many companies are beating analyst expectations.
The “positive to negative earnings guidance” ratio is near a four-year high, suggesting increased corporate confidence.
- "Companies are typically cautious about raising guidance since the market tends to punish them for falling short." (04:12)
- Only during the pandemic recovery was guidance more optimistic.

6. Reddit Joins the S&P 500

Reddit will be added to the S&P 500 index next Tuesday, replacing AvalonBay Communities (due to a merger).
The stock rose 12% on Friday, rebounding from earlier losses.
Despite concerns over AI-powered search models drawing traffic away, Reddit remains the most cited website in AI answers (according to Parse), making it valuable for brands aiming to influence chatbots.
Eligibility threshold: S&P 500 inclusion now requires a market cap of at least $22.7B; Reddit ended the week at $30B.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On inflation and retail sales:
- “Wholesale prices were unchanged in July, defying predictions from economists who expected a rise.” (00:47)
On consumer worries:
- “The survey’s director said persistent price increases and concerns about the economic effects of the Iran conflict are still weighing on shoppers.” (01:37)
On rising gasoline prices:
- “The US average gasoline price topped $4 a gallon this year, up from $3.16 a year ago.” (03:19)
On earnings optimism:
- “The only time this ratio was higher was during the pandemic recovery period.” (04:27)
On Reddit’s S&P 500 debut:
- “Reddit is the most cited website in AI answers, according to the AI visibility data firm Parse.” (05:06)

Important Segments & Timestamps

[00:32] Introduction and weekly market overview
[00:47–01:59] Discussion of inflation, wholesale prices, retail sales, and consumer sentiment
[02:00–03:32] S&P 500 movers: Energy sector insights and refining margins surge
[03:32–04:27] Corporate earnings performance and rising guidance optimism
[04:27–05:35] Reddit’s S&P 500 entry and significance for investors and marketers

Summary

This episode provided a concise but thorough wrap-up of the week’s most critical market developments. Highlights included evidence of cooling inflation, surprising stagnancy in wholesale prices, and weak consumer sentiment. Energy stocks led market gains amid continuing international conflict-driven supply disruptions, while earnings optimism prevails among listed companies. The episode closed with the news of Reddit’s significant achievement—joining the S&P 500 just two years post-IPO—marking the platform as a major player in both social and AI-influenced sectors.

Loading summary

Transcript3 lines

[00:00]
A
This podcast is brought to you by relioQuest. Cybercriminals are constantly attacking. They want your data. They want your identity. They want your innovation. RelioQuest fortifies your business with agentic defense AI that detects, contains and eliminates cyber threats in minutes. It helps your security team move faster at the work that matters most to protect the business now and delivers insights to help them predict what's next. ReliaQuest agentic defense for the enterprise. Learn more at reliaquest.com that's R E L I A Q U E-S-T.com hey
[00:33]
B
listeners, it's Saturday, August 15th. I'm Shraddha Dinesh for the Wall Street Journal, and this is what's News in Markets. Our look at the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Let's get to Was a big week for economic data. The Labor Department reported that the annual inflation rate fell slightly in July, cooling to 3.4%, while core prices rose by 2.5% over the past 12 months. That reading essentially ties February's the lowest recorded since 2021. Wholesale prices were unchanged in July, defying predictions from economists who expected a rise. Then, on Friday, the Commerce Department reported U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, falling short of the small increase economists had forecast. And the preliminary August reading of The University of Michigan's monthly consumer sentiment survey came in at 51, down from 55.2 in July, also falling short of economists expectations. The survey's director said persistent price increases and concerns about the economic effects of the Iran conflict are still weighing on shoppers. Any further evidence of a weaker consumer could factor into the thinking of Federal Reserve policymakers, who are weighing whether elevated inflation warrants raising interest rates in the months ahead. Overall, the Nasdaq was up about 0.1% for the week, the Dow fell just below 0.6% for the week, and the S&P 500 settled up at roughly 0.3% for the week. It's not just AI stocks moving the S&P 500 higher. Old school energy companies are joining tech to push the index to new records. A series of disruptions from the Iran war and Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to China's restrictions on fuel exports has pulled millions of barrels of refined products off global markets, leaving consumers scrambling to locate alternative supplies. As a result, refining margins the difference between the cost of crude and the value of the fuels produced from it have surged, with strait of hormuz flows unlikely to normalize anytime soon, and repairs to Gulf refineries targeted by Iranian attacks expected to take months, the market could remain tight, boosting those margins globally. They're expected to remain high for the rest of the year. While that's likely to be welcome news for oil majors come earning season, it's bad for drivers at the pump. The US average gasoline price topped $4 a gallon this year, up from $3.16 a year ago. It's been a great quarter for earnings, both earnings growth and the so called surprise ratio. That's the share of companies exceeding analyst expectations are sitting near historic highs. WSJ investing columnist Spencer Jacob wrote about how that seems to be creating a strong sense of optimism among companies and how it's being reflected in their guidance. Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group say the rolling average of positive to negative earnings guidance is now near a four year high for the companies they track. That's especially notable because companies are typically cautious about raising guidance since the market tends to punish them for falling short. In fact, the only time this ratio was higher was during the pandemic recovery period. And there's a new face joining the S&P 500 just two years after going public, social media platform Reddit will join the index this coming Tuesday. It'll replace real estate investment trust Avalon Bay Communities, which is merging with Fellow S&P 500 member Equity Residential, creating an open spot. Reddit shares rose over 12% Friday. It's a turnaround for the stock, which was down nearly a third this year on concerns AI models would divert traffic away from Reddit's message boards. Though its stock has struggled amid the latest tech boom, Reddit is the most cited website in AI answers, according to the AI visibility data firm Parse. That's turned the platform into a core focus for brands and marketers looking to influence chatbots, according to a report from WSJ Leadership Institute reporter Katie Dayton. As of July, companies needed a market capitalization of at least $22.7 billion to be eligible for the S&P 500. Reddit cleared that bar, ending Thursday with a market cap of over $30 billion. And now you know what's news in markets this week. You can read about more stocks that moved on the week's news in our live markets coverage on WSJ.com today's show was produced by Julie Chang with supervising producer Katie Ferguson. I'm Shraddha Dinesh. Have a great weekend and see you next Saturday.
[06:24]
C
I'm Laura Thoreau with Baird Private Wealth Management. You've been doing all the right things saving, investing, building toward your goals. Healthcare can be a major expense today, and an even greater one over time. Tools like long term care insurance or a smart health savings account strategy can help protect what you've worked so hard to build. Learn more@bairdwealth.com WSJguidebook.