Can Europe Broker a Peace Plan for Ukraine?

Summary

WSJ What’s News: "Can Europe Broker a Peace Plan for Ukraine?"
Release Date: March 3, 2025
Host: Luke Vargas | Author: The Wall Street Journal

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1. Europe’s Diplomatic Efforts for Ukraine

Key Discussion Points: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy convened a significant diplomatic meeting in London, drawing nearly 20 allies, including leaders from Germany, Italy, France, Canada, and Turkey. The primary objective was to consolidate support for Kyiv amidst ongoing tensions with Russia.

Notable Insights: Lawrence Norman, the Journal's deputy Brussels bureau chief, provided an in-depth analysis of the meeting's outcomes. He highlighted collaborative plans between the UK and France to deploy a substantial European force in Ukraine as part of a peace deal. This force would not be stationed on the border but strategically placed within Ukraine, incorporating aircraft and possibly sea assets to deter potential Russian aggression.

Notable Quote:

"So the UK and France are working on plans that would put a force of thousands of Europeans into Ukraine under a peace deal... It would include aircraft, possibly sea assets as well."
— Lawrence Norman, Deputy Brussels Bureau Chief [01:50]

Challenges Identified: Norman emphasized the necessity of American support for the European forces to feel secure against Russian threats. He noted unresolved issues, such as the strained relationship between President Trump and Zelenskyy, and the lack of progress on agreements regarding Ukraine’s mineral resources. Additionally, the UK and France require assurances from Washington to protect their deployed forces, areas where Trump’s commitment remains ambiguous.

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2. Israel-Gaza Ceasefire Expiration and Implications

Key Discussion Points: Following the expiration of a ceasefire without a definitive agreement with Hamas, Israel has halted the entry of goods into Gaza. This development signals a potential resumption of hostilities between the two parties.

Notable Insights: A U.S. proposal aimed at extending the ceasefire included provisions for the release of more hostages and postponing comprehensive talks until April. However, Hamas rejected the proposal, accusing Israel of leveraging aid control over Gaza to negotiate terms unilaterally.

Notable Quote:

"Hamas said Israel was using its control over aid to Gaza to force it into a new agreement rather than allowing it to have a say."
— Luke Vargas [02:45]

U.S. Involvement: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expedited the delivery of approximately $4 billion in military aid to Israel, leveraging emergency authorities to ensure swift support despite the fragile ceasefire’s collapse.

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3. Scrutiny of US Government Consulting Contracts

Key Discussion Points: Executives from leading U.S. consulting firms, including Booz Allen, Accenture, and Guidehouse, are actively engaging with Trump administration officials to defend their lucrative government contracts amidst a push to reduce federal spending.

Notable Insights: The General Services Administration (GSA) has mandated federal agencies to review and justify their consulting contracts by Friday. The ten highest-paid consulting firms are projected to receive over $65 billion in fees through 2025, sparking intense negotiations to retain these agreements.

Notable Quote:

"Executives were told that the government still sees value in consulting, particularly in rolling out advanced technology and modernizing agencies."
— Luke Vargas [03:30]

Implications: These meetings underscore the administration's commitment to reevaluating federal expenditures on consulting services, while the firms argue for their indispensable role in governmental modernization and technological advancement.

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4. US-China Tech and Trade Tensions Escalate

Key Discussion Points: Chinese buyers have found ways to bypass U.S. export controls by sourcing Nvidia’s latest AI chips through third-party countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan. This activity poses significant challenges for U.S. trade enforcement and technological competition.

Notable Insights: Nvidia has pledged to investigate instances of product diversion and take necessary actions to prevent unauthorized distribution. This gray market activity exacerbates the technological arms race between Washington and Beijing.

Notable Quote:

"Chinese buyers are getting around US Export controls to order Nvidia's latest artificial intelligence chips... Some sellers are promising delivery within six weeks."
— Luke Vargas [04:30]

Broader Context: This scenario is part of a larger narrative where Beijing's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative aims to diminish American global dominance by leveraging massive infrastructure investments. The WSJ is developing a special series, "Building Influence," to explore these dynamics further.

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5. Impending US Tariffs and Economic Impact

Key Discussion Points: A new wave of tariffs is set to take effect, including a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, alongside an existing tariff on Chinese products. There remains a slim possibility of an 11th-hour deal to delay these measures.

Notable Insights: Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discussed the potential repercussions of escalating tariffs. He expressed concern over the severe impact on American farmers, particularly those reliant on the Chinese market for exports like soybeans.

Notable Quote:

"American farm exports, American farmers are very, very reliant... if President Trump decides to re-escalate things with China, China might choose to re-escalate by going after American farm products."
— Chad Bown [06:26]

Market Analysis: The introduction of these tariffs could adversely affect the U.S. GDP, North American manufacturing, and the semiconductor industry, as highlighted in the latest episode of WSJ's "Take on the Week" podcast.

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6. Corporate Strategy: Shell’s Potential Asset Sale

Key Discussion Points: Energy giant Shell is contemplating the sale of its chemicals assets in Europe and the U.S. This strategic move aligns with Shell's intent to focus on its core oil and gas operations.

Notable Insights: Sources familiar with the matter indicate that the discussions are in the preliminary stages, and Shell has yet to make any definitive decisions regarding the asset divestiture.

Notable Quote:

"Executives at some of the biggest US Consulting firms are meeting with Trump officials to defend their contracts..."
— Luke Vargas [05:00]

Market Reaction: Investors are closely monitoring Shell’s actions, as the potential sale could signal a broader trend of consolidation and refocusing within the energy sector.

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7. Crypto Market Developments Amid Trump’s Announcement

Key Discussion Points: Cryptocurrency markets experienced a surge following President Trump’s announcement of plans to create a crypto strategic reserve, which would encompass Bitcoin, Ether, and three additional, more volatile tokens.

Notable Insights: Although Trump has yet to provide detailed information, the proposed reserve is expected to be a central topic at the inaugural White House crypto summit scheduled for Friday.

Notable Quote:

"Crypto prices got a boost yesterday after President Trump said he'd move forward with creating a crypto strategic reserve..."
— Luke Vargas [07:00]

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8. State Legislatures Intensify Fight Over Online Child Safety

Key Discussion Points: The ongoing debate over online child safety has reignited in state legislatures across the United States. A particular point of contention is the responsibility of app store operators to verify the ages of social media users.

Notable Insights: Amrith Ramkumar, the Journal's tech policy reporter, elaborated on the introduction of App Store accountability bills in at least nine states. These bills aim to leverage the dominant position of Apple and Google in app distribution to enforce age verification protocols more effectively.

Notable Quote:

"Apple and Google definitely think that they should be the ones responsible in a lot of these cases... they think that would lead to a breakdown in user privacy expectations."
— Amrith Ramkumar [10:49]

Legislative Efforts: A coalition of approximately 60 child safety groups is advocating for the widespread adoption of these App Store accountability measures, arguing that centralized control by major app stores can streamline age verification processes.

Technological Solutions: To address privacy and efficacy concerns, companies like Google are experimenting with machine learning-based age estimation models. Additionally, discussions around blockchain technology and unique user codes aim to enhance verification without compromising user privacy.

Notable Quote:

"Google said that they're going to start experimenting with a machine learning based age estimation model... nonprofit groups have talked about using AI and blockchain technology."
— Amrith Ramkumar [12:17]

Future Outlook: The battle over online child safety is poised to continue, with significant lobbying efforts anticipated from both proponents of increased regulation and defenders of digital privacy and free speech.

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Conclusion

The March 3, 2025, episode of WSJ What’s News delved into critical global and domestic issues ranging from Europe's role in brokering peace in Ukraine to the intricate dynamics of US-China trade relations. The episode also explored significant legislative developments in online child safety, corporate strategic shifts in the energy sector, and emerging trends in the cryptocurrency market. Through comprehensive reporting and expert insights, the episode provided a multifaceted view of the current geopolitical and economic landscape.

For listeners seeking a deeper understanding of these topics, the episode offers expert interviews, detailed analyses, and exclusive reports, ensuring a well-rounded perspective on the most pressing news of the day.

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Produced by: Kate Bullifant
Supervising Producer: Christina Rocca
Host: Luke Vargas

Transcript

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[Luke Vargas]

Ukraine's allies rally around President Zelensky in London, but how much can they do for Kyiv without American support? Plus, consulting bosses scramble to defend billions of dollars in US Government contracts and state legislatures resume their push to protect kids online, putting app store operators on the defensive.

[Amrith Ramkumar]

We've seen bills in at least nine states introduced in the last couple of months and they think that using the app stores is a bit cleaner because there are only a couple of big app stores in Apple and Google and so in theory should be easier for them to verify the ages of users before they can download apps.

[Luke Vargas]

It's Monday, March 3rd. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal and here is the AM Edition of what's News, the top headlines and business stories. More moving your world today after publicly clashing with President Trump on Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with nearly 20 allies in London yesterday, a last minute diplomatic gathering that attracted the leaders of Germany, Italy, France, Canada and Turkey in a show of support for Kyiv. But beyond optics, I asked the Journal's deputy Brussels bureau chief, Lawrence Norman, what concrete progress came of the gathering.

[Lawrence Norman]

So the UK And France are working on plans that would put a force of thousands of Europeans into Ukraine under a peace deal. It wouldn't sit on the border, it would be placed elsewhere in Ukraine, but it would include aircraft, possibly sea assets as well. And the idea would be that it would be a deterrence in case Russia wished to invade Ukraine again. And there's a sense that other allies are beginning to get interest and this is becoming more serious as a prospect. They had two other tasks in London. One was to patch up the row between Trump and Zelensky and to get the Ukrainians and the Americans to agree on a deal for minerals in Ukraine. It's not clear that that moved forward. And secondly is that even the Brits, who are very clear that they are willing to put troops in Ukraine under a peace deal, say they need Washington to provide some kind of protection. Those European forces, if they come under attack from Russia and Donald Trump has been anything but clear about whether he's willing to commit that.

[Luke Vargas]

Meanwhile, Israel says it is stopping the entry of goods into Gaza after a ceasefire officially expired over the weekend without any agreement with Hamas on what comes next. Hours before the ceasefire expired, Israel said it had agreed to a U.S. proposal to extend the agreement, which would see the release of more hostages and delay until April April talks to permanently end fighting, but that Hamas had refused the offer. Hamas said Israel was using its control over aid to Gaza to force it into a new agreement rather than allowing it to have a say. Both sides are preparing for a return to fighting, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said over the weekend that he had used emergency authorities to speed up the delivery of about $4 billion in military aid to Israel. We are exclusively reporting that executives at some of the biggest US Consulting firms are meeting with Trump officials to defend their contracts amid the administration's push to slash federal spending. That's as the General Services Administration, or gsa, has given procurement officials at federal agencies until Friday to list and justify consulting contracts they intend to keep from 10 companies, including Booz Allen, Accenture and Guidehouse. According to the GSA, the 10 highest paid consulting firms are set to receive more than $65 billion in total fees across 2025 and future years, money that has yet to be spent. In meetings with Trump officials, executives were told that the government still sees value in consulting, particularly in rolling out advanced technology and modernizing agencies. Chinese buyers are getting around US Export controls to order Nvidia's latest artificial intelligence ch. According to our reporting, traders in China are selling computer systems with Nvidia's Blackwell chips installed by routing them through third parties in nearby regions like Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan, with some sellers promising delivery within six weeks. Nvidia said it would investigate every report of possible product diversion and take appropriate action. The gray market activity poses a fresh challenge for Washington, which is weighing how to manage a technological arms race with Beijing. And speaking of the great power rivalry between the world's top two economies, we're working on a special series about how Beijing is using its trillion dollar belt and road infrastructure program to undercut American dominance on the world stage. The second episode of Building Influence is out now on the What's News Feed. 25% US tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are set to go into effect tomorrow, along with an ext tariff on products from China, while another 11th hour deal to push back that deadline remains a possibility. Our colleagues at WSJ's take on the Week podcast wanted to figure out the likely market impact should those measures plus more trade action promised by President Trump come into effect. Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that the worsening spat with China could hit the American heartland particularly hard.

[Chad Bown]

Well, agriculture back in the first trade war, that was China's choice for how to retaliate against the United States. So American farm exports, American farmers are very, very reliant, very dependent on the Chinese market for their sales, especially for products like soybeans. And so I think the concern there is, well, if President Trump decides to re escalate things with China, China might choose to re escalate by going after American farm products. They haven't done it yet. That was not part of their retaliation package so far, but they could.

[Luke Vargas]

And to hear that full interview, including Chad Bowne's analysis on how tariffs could hit the chips industry, North American manufacturers and overall US GDP, check out the latest episode of WSJ's take on the week. You can listen and subscribe on whatever platform you use to listen to us. And in other news, investors will be watching. We are exclusively reporting that energy major Shell is exploring the potential sale of its chemicals assets in Europe and the US as it refocuses on its more profitable oil and gas operations. That, according to people familiar with the matter, who say the process is in its early stages and Shell has yet to commit to any final decisions. And crypto prices got a boost yesterday after President Trump said he'd move forward with creating a crypto strategic reserve that would include Bitcoin and ether, as well as three smaller and riskier tokens. Trump didn't offer more details, but he's expected to host and speak at a first ever White House crypto summit on Friday. Coming up, state legislatures are picking up the fight over online child safety and who should be responsible to verify the ages of social media users. That story after the break.

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[Luke Vargas]

Let'S revisit a story now that we spent a good deal of time talking about here and on what's New Sunday Last year, the fight over online child safety. The Journal's Amrith Ramkumar reports that fight is back on at state houses around the and it now features a rift between some of America's largest tech and social media platforms. Amrith, walk us through what's been going on lately. It sounds like there's been kind of a flurry of activity.

[Amrith Ramkumar]

Yeah, we've seen bills in at least nine states introduced in the last couple of months, including Utah, South Carolina, Hawaii, South Dakota. They're basically called App Store accountability bills, the latest in a long string of things that lawmakers have attempted. And so they think that using the app stores is a bit cleaner because there are only a couple of big app stores in Apple and Google and they collect a lot of data on users already. So in theory should be easier for them to verify the ages of users before they can download apps. There's also a new coalition of roughly 60 child safety groups and individuals, and that coalition is now going to be pushing for more of these App Store bills across the country. So they're trying to build on this momentum.

[Luke Vargas]

Sorry to cut you off. What about any activity in Washington?

[Amrith Ramkumar]

Yeah, lawmakers at the state and even federal level definitely feel a lot of pressure to get anything done in the kids online safety realm. Senator Mike Lee introduced a bill last year and I recently talked to him and he said he plans to reintroduce it and hopefully get more momentum. He introduced it late in the session near the election, so there wasn't much progress made there. Last year there was a big kids online safety bill that got killed after lobbying by Meta Google, but it passed the Senate and it would have imposed a duty of care on big Internet platforms and made them much more responsible basically for the content that they host and that they let minors access. So this is going to be a long fight and there will be lots of lobbying on both sides about that fight.

[Luke Vargas]

What are the app store operators saying to try to take the heat off of them?

[Amrith Ramkumar]

I had someone tell me it's like the policy equivalent of a game of not it. Apple and Google definitely think that they should be the ones responsible in a lot of these cases. And some of it has to do with the fact that they don't think they should be singled out. And child online safety advocates in general say that App Store accountability bills on their own aren't going to make a dent in this problem. You sort of need age verification from them and maybe a bunch of other issues really addressing the content and the core problems to make a difference. So that's part of the argument Apple and Google make. The others are basically that they've already taken a lot of steps to make kids safer on these devices and online. They already have a lot of good parental controls where parents can basically be the ones approving app downloads and purchases and things of that nature. And they also have issues with this flagging system where they would be in charge of flagging to social media companies and apps if there were minors and potentially violations of laws. They think that would actually lead to a breakdown in user privacy expectations because they would be the ones sharing then ages and other information with all these other apps and platforms.

[Luke Vargas]

Amrith, I know that privacy concerns and just overall skepticism about the efficacy of trying to age verify online in the first place have been perennial issues in the online safety debate. Has there been any movement in addressing those pitfalls?

[Amrith Ramkumar]

Those pitfalls are definitely present. The companies and others are really trying to find tech oriented solutions around that. So Google said that they're going to start experimenting with a machine learning based age estimation model. And a lot of people in the space, like nonprofits and such have talked about using AI and blockchain technology and basically other ways where kids could have unique codes or their faces could be looked at and analyzed and age could be estimated without sort of breaking that privacy barrier, as you say. But that's definitely the main thing that nonprofits and tech industry groups go to when they fight these in court. They find free speech and privacy issues and they sort of hone in on those. So that's the big challenge for lawmakers is making sure that these laws are sort of airtight because we've seen a lot of state laws passed in the last few years. But then there are those legal challenges that basically delay their implementation. And that's why the App Store accountability proponents basically say that they're hoping this is a bit simpler and cleaner since it's just a few app stores and they already have a lot of this information. So that and the contracts idea that they're preventing miners from entering in contracts. They use the analogy that a miner can't open a bank account and make a lot of big transactions without parental consent. And this should be similar.

[Luke Vargas]

That was Wall Street Journal tech policy reporter Amrith Ramkumar. Amrith, thank you so much for bringing us this story.

[Amrith Ramkumar]

Thanks for having me.

[Luke Vargas]

And that's what's news for this Monday morning. Today's show was produced by Kate Bullifant with supervising producer Christina Rocca. And I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.