Can the U.S. Catch Up in the Critical Minerals Race?

Summary

WSJ What’s News: Can the U.S. Catch Up in the Critical Minerals Race?

Release Date: June 8, 2025

In this episode of WSJ What’s News, host Kate Bullivant delves into the pressing issue of the United States' efforts to secure critical minerals essential for modern technologies and national security. With China maintaining a dominant position in the global supply chain, the U.S. is strategizing to bridge the gap. The discussion features insights from John Eamont, Senior Reporter at The Wall Street Journal, and Gracelyn Baskerin, Director of the Critical Mineral Security Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

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1. The Strategic Importance of Critical Minerals

At the outset, Kate Bullivant sets the stage by highlighting the significance of critical minerals in various technologies and defense systems. She notes that since taking office, President Trump has prioritized securing these supply chains to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign sources, particularly China.

“These minerals play a key role in many modern technologies, from fighter jets and semiconductors to smartphones and electric vehicle batteries.”
— Kate Bullivant [00:18]

Gracelyn Baskerin underscores the national security implications, explaining that rare earth elements are integral to advanced defense technologies, including F-35 fighter jets and missile systems.

“Rare earth elements... are in F35 fighter jets, Virginia and Columbia class submarines, missiles, radar systems...”
— Gracelyn Baskerin [02:09]

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2. China's Dominance and Strategic Moves

The conversation shifts to China's overwhelming control over the critical mineral supply chain. A recent report from the International Energy Agency reveals that between 2020 and 2024, China accounted for approximately 80% of the global supply growth of copper and lithium.

“China continues to dominate, accounting for up to roughly 80% of global supply growth of copper and lithium between 2020 and 2024.”
— Kate Bullivant [00:18]

Gracelyn Baskerin elaborates on China's strategic maneuvers, including the restriction of rare earth element exports, which has significant implications for U.S. manufacturing and defense capabilities.

“China has processing capabilities for between 40 and 90% of these key critical mineral supply chains... willing to weaponize this.”
— Gracelyn Baskerin [02:09]

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3. The Trump Administration’s Multi-Pronged Strategy

John Eamont explains the comprehensive approach taken by the Trump administration to bolster domestic production and reduce reliance on China. The administration's strategy includes:

• Regulatory Reforms: Accelerating permitting processes to expedite the establishment of mines.

  “One of the key things they're trying to do is slash regulation and fast track permitting...”
  — John Eamont [04:02]

• Financial Incentives: Leveraging the Defense Production Act and the International Development Finance Corporation to fund domestic mining projects.

  “They're going to use that funding to support domestic mining projects. So it's a new funding instrument.”
  — John Eamont [04:02]

• International Partnerships: Securing mineral deals with countries like Ukraine and potentially the Democratic Republic of Congo to diversify supply sources.

  “They've also struck critical mineral deals with Ukraine... potentially some deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo.”
  — John Eamont [04:02]

Gracelyn Baskerin adds that the administration is exploring mining both on land and in the deep sea, aiming to tap into diverse geographical sources to meet the demand.

“They're looking at mining at home, they're mining broad mining on the land and mining under the deep sea.”
— Gracelyn Baskerin [06:08]

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4. Challenges Facing U.S. Mining Companies

Despite these efforts, several obstacles hinder the growth of U.S. mining operations:

• Economic Viability: Higher labor costs and lower mineral prices make domestic mining less lucrative compared to Chinese counterparts.

  “There's a lot of supply and not necessarily that much demand from companies for it to be domestically produced.”
  — John Eamont [05:10]

• Long Development Timelines: It typically takes an average of 18 years to develop a mine from discovery to production, outpacing the current presidential administration's timeframe.

  “Globally, on average, it takes 18 years to build a mine.”
  — Gracelyn Baskerin [06:08]

• Processing Capabilities: Building processing facilities domestically is challenging, necessitating international collaborations to handle the diverse range of critical minerals.

“We can't process 55 minerals in the next five years here. So how do we build processing here? But how do we also lean into which countries are our allies that are willing to help with that?”
— Gracelyn Baskerin [12:20]

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5. Business Sentiment and Market Dynamics

John Eamont discusses the mixed optimism among U.S. businesses. While there's concern over China's export restrictions affecting industries like automotive manufacturing, there's also anticipation of price premiums for domestically sourced minerals.

“Companies like General Motors... might be willing to pay more for domestically produced... rare earth magnets.”
— John Eamont [09:35]

However, he notes that sectors beyond defense, such as the automotive and smartphone industries, may resist higher costs, potentially hindering the scaling of domestic mineral production.

“The defense industry is not necessarily enough to support a really economically viable big rare earth processing plant.”
— John Eamont [10:45]

Gracelyn Baskerin emphasizes the need for a synergistic approach that integrates energy, economic security, and defense to drive sustained demand and investment in critical minerals.

“We have to look at energy, economic security and defense as deeply interwoven industries that together are going to propel demand.”
— Gracelyn Baskerin [11:13]

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6. Indicators of Progress and Future Outlook

Looking ahead, Gracelyn Baskerin outlines key indicators to monitor the effectiveness of the Trump administration's strategy:

1. Permitting Rates: Increased issuance of mining permits indicates progress in establishing new mines.

   “The first thing I want to see is how many permits are going out.”
   — Gracelyn Baskerin [12:20]

2. Investment in Exploration: Funding allocated to domestic and international mineral exploration is crucial for discovering new deposits.

   “Mineral exploration is like the oxygen of the mining sector.”
   — Gracelyn Baskerin [12:20]

3. Processing Infrastructure: Development of processing facilities domestically and through allied nations is essential to handle the diverse range of critical minerals.

   “How do we build processing here? But how do we also lean into which countries are our allies that are willing to help with that?”
   — Gracelyn Baskerin [12:20]

John Eamont concurs, highlighting that the willingness of end-users to invest in domestically sourced minerals will play a pivotal role in supporting the industry's growth.

“There's going to be a real price premium for domestically produced minerals or for allied produced minerals.”
— John Eamont [09:35]

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Conclusion

The U.S. faces a complex challenge in securing critical minerals essential for technological advancement and national security. While the Trump administration has implemented a multifaceted strategy to enhance domestic production and reduce reliance on China, significant hurdles remain. Economic viability, long development timelines, and the need for robust processing infrastructure are critical factors that will determine the success of these efforts. Monitoring permitting rates, investment in exploration, and the development of processing capabilities will be essential in assessing progress. As the global landscape continues to evolve, the U.S. must navigate these challenges to reclaim its position in the critical minerals race.

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This summary captures the essence of the June 8, 2025 episode of WSJ What’s News titled "Can the U.S. Catch Up in the Critical Minerals Race?" and provides a comprehensive overview for listeners seeking to understand the current state and future prospects of the U.S. critical minerals strategy.

Transcript

[Trustage]

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[Kate Bullivant]

Hey, what's news, listeners? It's Sunday, June 8th. I'm Kate Bullivant for the Wall Street Journal. This is what's News Sunday, the show where we tackle the big questions about the biggest story stories in the news by reaching out to our colleagues across the newsroom to help explain what's happening in our world. On today's show, the race to secure critical minerals is well underway and the US Is scrambling to catch up with its number one rival, China. In a race with major national security implications, these minerals play a key role in many modern technologies, from fighter jets and semiconductors to smartphones and electric vehicle batteries. Since returning to the White House, President Trump has made securing supply chains for these minerals a top priority. Today we look at whether Trump's strategy to put the US back in first place is working. Back in 2020, President Trump declared a national emergency over US dependence on foreign critical minerals. Fast forward to today and a recent report from the International Energy Agency shows that China continues to dominate, accounting for up to roughly 80% of global supply growth of copper and lithium between 2020 and 2024. Despite lots of talk from Washington, setting up global supply chains is hard work, especially when doing so isn't necessarily lucrative for businesses.

[John Eamont]

Joining me now to put this all into context is Journal senior reporter John Eamont and Gracelyn Baskerin, who is the director of the Critical Mineral Security Programme at csis, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. GR could you tell us why is President Trump so eager to procure these critical minerals? From a national security standpoint, critical minerals.

[Gracelyn Baskerin]

Are the bedrock for almost every form of defense technologies. When we think about rare earth elements, which are actually the minerals that China most recently restricted, we see that they are in F35 fighter jets, Virginia and Columbia class submarines, missiles, radar systems, Predator unmanned aerial vehicles, and the Joint Direct Attack Munition series of smart bombs. Now, the difficulty that we've had in recent years is China has shown that not only are they dominant, right? We know that they have processing capabilities for between 40 and 90% of these key critical mineral supply chains. However, they are also now willing to weaponize this, and we saw it two years ago when they started with germanium and gallium, which are in semiconductors that we use in defense technologies, but rapidly rolled out to things like antimony, tungsten, graphite, and now rare earths. So the US Is on the back foot at manufacturing these technologies.

[John Eamont]

And if you say critical minerals to a lot of people, the first thing that might pop into their head is renewable energy. But would I be right in thinking this is an area that President Trump is less focused on?

[Gracelyn Baskerin]

Given the rising geopolitical tension in the world and the always imminent threat of action, whether in the Middle east or whether in the Indo Pacific Strait, ensuring that we are able to protect ourselves is a critical priority for President Trump in this administration. And we've seen this because in the recent executive orders on critical minerals, we actually see Department of Defense taking a lead on many of the actions, as opposed to the previous administration where we saw Department of Energy play a leading role.

[Kate Bullivant]

John, this executive order that Trump signed, it uses emergency powers to ramp up investment through rapid permitting and improved financing, does it not?

[John Eamont]

Yeah, it's a multi pronged strategy. So one of the key things they're trying to do is slash regulation and fast track permitting, because this has been a huge issue for domestic miners is just the amount of time it takes to get a mine off the ground. And then at the same time, they're trying to provide a lot more funding from the state for it. So using things like the Defense Production act and sort of in a novel way, the International Development Finance Corporation is intended to provide support for projects abroad, specifically in developing countries, but they're actually going to use that funding to support domestic mining projects. So it's a new funding instrument. In addition to these measures, they've also struck critical mineral deals with Ukraine. And there's also rumors and talk that potentially some deal there could be a deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo, which of course has tons of of cobalt and copper. The question is just what it will all add up to.

[Kate Bullivant]

This strategy that you've just spoken about. Where does it leave US Mining companies and businesses in this space? I mean, is it that we're about to see a huge pickup in the number of US Mines?

[John Eamont]

One of the trickiest things to understand about critical minerals is they are at once extremely important for all the reasons that gracefully laid out. But that doesn't actually mean they're lucrative necessarily to mine. When you're going up against China, which has huge mining companies and huge processing companies that have been at this for decades, that has access to sort of the plum resources around the globe, and you try to set up a mine in The United States, even if you have some regulations that are removed and you can maybe do it a bit quicker now, you still have much higher labor costs. And just you look at the price of a lot of these minerals and they're quite low. Things like cobalt, the price has sunk dramatically in recent years. Same with nickel and lithium, because China continues to produce more. And that means that there's just a lot of supply and not necessarily that much demand from companies for it to be domestically produced.

[Kate Bullivant]

Graceland, I would love to hear your thoughts. How can the Trump administration get this industry scaled up?

[Gracelyn Baskerin]

This administration is all of the above. They're looking at mining at home, they're mining broad mining on the land and mining under the deep sea. So we're really kind of seeing of like a throwing our darts at every target here and hoping that we will yield minerals. As John said though, this is a very long term industry. Globally, on average, it takes 18 years to build a mine. From the time I identify a deposit to the time it is producing, that is four and a half presidential administrations. A lot of things can change in that time. Now when we look at a lot of this administration, if we zoom over to the foreign policy angle, we see totally different mining worlds that they're pursuing. We've got Greenland, which is buried between minerals and surface is a lot of ice. We have the drc, which is an incredibly rich mining jurisdiction Even though only 20% of the Congo has been geologically mapped. When you look at the 20 biggest copper deposits in the world, the top two in terms of quality are in the Congo, 70% of cobalt. We have nickel, we have lithium. We have more shovel ready. But I also want to raise another country that, you know, I just came back from Saudi Arabia and what we saw is President Trump's first state visit was to Saudi Arabia. And as part of that we saw minerals cooperation feature very strongly. Now they've discovered a very large rare earth deposit. And in partnering with a US company, Moden is Saudi Arabian and MP Materials is California based. They're our rare earth miner. They're looking to build the entire mine to permanent magnet supply chain. And these are the kinds of things where I'm a little bit more optimistic in terms of speed because we have a totally different regulatory landscape. The Gulf is emerging as this place that wants to reduce reliance on oil, has capital at scale. Turns out some of them have really good resources and want to partner with the US but the whole kind of foreign policy that we're looking at is being redrawn around minerals And I expect to see that expand in Africa and Latin America. And then the final point here is ultimately the reason China was successful is they did this right. They sourced minerals from Africa and Latin America and Asia, but then they brought it back home for processing and that's where they've exerted their dominance.

[Kate Bullivant]

Coming up, where does Trump's strategy to secure critical minerals leave U.S. businesses? And can we tell yet if this strategy is working? Stay with us.

[Lou DiLorenzo]

The board member tech relationship is about more than updates and oversight. It's about collaborating to drive business transformation. On this episode of Techfluential, Deloitte's Lou DiLorenzo talks with nationwide board member Sarah Tucker and Jim Fowler, Nationwide EVP and cto, about how this alliance can fuel strategy, unlock innovation and accelerate growth. Where technology and influence converge, new opportunities can emerge. That's techfluential, a podcast from Deloitte and custom content from WSJ.

[Kate Bullivant]

Welcome back. As we've been discussing, the Trump administration is trying to boost domestic production of critical minerals as part of its multi pronged approach to catch up to China. So how optimistic are US Businesses feeling about the hurdles facing them as they look to compete with foreign players? Here's senior reporter John Emont.

[John Eamont]

I think turtles still seem pretty, pretty great. One interesting thing is that China has, as Gracelyn mentioned, started restricting exports of key minerals. And that really terrifies companies in the US that rely on them. For example, car companies like General Motors, they need rare earth magnets and if they can't get them, it risks real production slowdowns. So then companies like General Motors will be willing to pay more for domestically produced, or at least allied produced rare earth magnets. What might start happening is China throws its weight around more with minerals, is that you will start seeing that there will be a real price premium for domestically produced minerals or for allied produced minerals. And that's what's kind of necessary to get these infant industries started is a real sign from the end users that they're actually willing to pay a lot of extra money to get these minerals from someplace other than China.

[Kate Bullivant]

So given the current levels of defense spending, I imagine the defence industry is better able to stomach more expensive minerals than, say, carmakers or smartphone makers that could, for instance, set back the clean energy transition even if weapon makers can keep sourcing these products.

[John Eamont]

You're right, Kate. But you know, the defense industry is not necessarily enough to support a really economically viable big rare earth processing plant or magnet making facility. So you do often need buy in from civilian companies who might not always have the same national security concerns, it might not be as regulated. They might be tempted, especially in a hyper competitive industry like the car industry, to just go, go with the cheapest minerals possible.

[Gracelyn Baskerin]

You know, the defense industry is a bespoke off taker of minerals. They might build 50 satellites, they're not building 5,000. So at the end of the day, they're not going to be the industry that drives, you know, $500 million investments in minerals. First of all, we need to, we have to look at energy, economic security and defense as deeply interwoven industries that together are going to propel demand. The second thing we have to look at is what incentives this is going to put into place to support these industries. President Biden's Inflation Reduction act, the goal of it was to stimulate electric vehicle demand by stimulating EV demand. We saw some of the largest kind of mineral investment figures emerge. So when I'm a lithium nickel copper producer looking at whether there will be sufficient demand three decades from now, I'm looking at the EV market. I'm not looking at a relatively stable defense industry.

[Kate Bullivant]

So, Gracelyn, what do you think we should be watching for in the near term to help determine how this strategy is working?

[Gracelyn Baskerin]

So because of the lag in the industry, the first thing I want to see is how many permits are going out. Permits are one of those things that are going to determine how many mines we have in the future. The second is how much money are we spending not only domestically but internationally on mineral exploration, which is something we don't talk about very often. But mineral exploration is like the oxygen of the mining sector. If I don't explore, I will not find assets for future production. And a lot of existing mines are already locked up with Chinese offtake. And then the third thing I want to look at is processing capabilities, not just in the US because we won't do it all here. The Department of interior list has 50 minerals, and then President Trump has added about another five or so onto his list. We can't process 55 minerals in the next five years here. So how do we build processing here? But how do we also lean into which countries are our allies that are willing to help with that? Those are going to be the things I'm looking for and I think things that this administration is prioritizing.

[Kate Bullivant]

Graceland. John, thanks so much for your time.

[John Eamont]

Thank you so much.

[Gracelyn Baskerin]

Thank you for having me.

[Kate Bullivant]

And that's it for what's new Sunday for June 8th. Today's show was produced by Charlotte Gartenberg with supervising producer Sandra Kilhoff. And Deputy Editor Chris Sinsley. I'm Kate Bullivant and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a brand new show. Until then, thanks for listening.

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