Congress Receives Epstein’s 2003 Birthday Letter With Trump’s Signature

Summary

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WSJ What’s News – Congress Receives Epstein’s 2003 Birthday Letter With Trump’s Signature

Date: September 8, 2025
Host: Alex Osola
Guests: Justin Leithart, Ryan Dezember, Noemi Bisserbe

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Overview

This episode covers key developments in U.S. politics, the economy, and global affairs, including:

• The revelation of a controversial letter bearing Donald Trump's signature from Jeffrey Epstein’s 2003 birthday book, now delivered to Congress.
• Analysis of the robust health services sector amid an overall slowing U.S. labor market.
• The economic implications of falling lumber prices.
• France’s deepening fiscal and political crisis following the collapse of its government.
• Updates on U.S. Supreme Court action on immigration raids and economic indicators impacting markets.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Epstein’s 50th Birthday Book and the Trump Letter ([00:33])

• Context: Lawyers for Epstein's estate provided Congress with the infamous 2003 "birthday book," which includes a letter with Trump’s signature. Trump had previously denied the letter existed and called it “a fake thing,” even filing a defamation lawsuit against The Wall Street Journal.
• Details of the Letter:
  • Described as containing typed text framed by an outline of a naked woman.
  • The letter ends, “happy Birthday and may every day be another wonderful secret.”
  • The signature, “a squiggly Donald below the waist, mimicking pubic hair.” ([01:01]).
• WSJ’s Position: Dow Jones stands by its reporting:
  • “We have full confidence in the rigor and accuracy of our reporting.”
• White House Response: No response from White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt.

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2. U.S. Labor Market and Health Services Sector ([01:48])

• Trend: The labor market is stalling, with jobs data indicating a sharply slowing trend, except in health services.
• Interview with Justin Leithart (WSJ Economics Reporter):
  • “Health services…has always just been this steady, growing sector...helping the seniors and the elderly. And these jobs are steady because we always go to the doctor.” ([02:54])
  • Pandemic was a rare exception where health services lost jobs:
    • “We saw that the health services sector shed jobs, which almost never happens… it took a long time for the sector to come back…” ([03:31])
  • Outlook: Health services expected to keep growing but at a slower pace due to potential Medicaid cuts (“might not have as much oomph as it has had in the past” [04:02]), and in the context of overall weak labor markets, that’s worrying.
• Upcoming Data:
  • Expect a downward revision in jobs data; business closures and lower company formation point to deeper labor market weakness ([04:58]).

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3. Market Updates ([05:32])

• Stocks rose in anticipation of inflation and jobs data, impacting Fed policy on rate cuts.
• Mortgage rates dropped sharply, possibly reviving the sluggish housing market:
  • “The average rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage fell to 6.29, the lowest level since October…” ([05:32])

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4. The Warning from Falling Lumber Prices ([07:21])

• With Ryan Dezember, WSJ Commodities Reporter:
  • Lumber prices, a leading indicator, have dropped more than 20% since August.
  • “Lumber prices have traditionally been a really good leading indicator…when things are slowing down, and that’s what it’s suggesting right now.” ([07:45])
• Trade Uncertainty:
  • 25% of U.S. softwood lumber comes from Canada; longstanding duty disputes raise U.S. prices and uncertainty.
  • Trump’s threats to impose broader tariffs on Canada could exacerbate uncertainty ([08:13]).
• Industry Impact:
  • Overstocked inventories led to reduced purchases, production cuts, and a “wood glut.”
  • “Sawmills are starting to cut back hours, reduce shifts, idle some mills… all looking like a big wood glut from here on out.” ([09:20])

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5. U.S. Supreme Court on LA Immigration Raids ([09:59])

• The Supreme Court lifted restrictions on immigration raids in Los Angeles, previously imposed over concerns about racial profiling.
• The decision was unsigned and briefly justified; Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote in concurrence that the decision matched precedent for federal immigration enforcement, while liberal justices dissented.

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6. France’s Government Collapse and Fiscal Crisis ([10:55])

• With Noemi Bisserbe, WSJ Paris Correspondent:
  • PM Francois Bairou’s government lost a no-confidence vote and resigned.
  • The root issue: France’s soaring budget deficit and borrowing costs, now higher than Greece’s.
    • “The French Prime Minister called this confidence vote to try to…force lawmakers to acknowledge the dire state of France’s finances…His gamble went spectacularly wrong.” ([11:15])
  • Investors seek evidence France will address its fiscal problems to stave off further rises in borrowing costs.
  • Political gridlock likely with divided National Assembly:
    • “Appetite for new parliamentary elections… but chances are…we’ll end up with the same divided national assembly and stuck in the same situation.” ([12:44])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Epstein Letter:

  • “The letter concluded, quote, happy Birthday and may every day be another wonderful secret. The signature was a squiggly Donald below the waist, mimicking pubic hair.” — Alex Osola ([01:01])
  • Trump: “a fake thing” (paraphrased, [01:01])

• On Health Services:

  • “The sector might not have as much oomph as it has had in the past…That’s not great.” — Justin Leithart ([04:02])

• On Lumber Market:

  • “…all looking like a big wood glut from here on out.” — Ryan Dezember ([09:20])

• On French Politics:

  • “…if we do this again, we’ll end up with the same divided national assembly and stuck in the same situation where basically there’s no clear majority with no clear path out of this crisis.” — Noemi Bisserbe ([12:44])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Epstein Birthday Book & Trump Letter: 00:33 – 01:48
• US Labor Market & Health Services Analysis: 01:48 – 05:28
• Market & Mortgage Rate Update: 05:32 – 06:47
• Falling Lumber Prices & Economic Signals: 07:21 – 09:54
• Supreme Court Immigration Raids Decision: 09:59 – 10:55
• France’s Government Collapse & Economic Outlook: 10:55 – 13:11

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Tone & Style

• Businesslike, concise, focused on facts and direct analysis, with a crisp delivery and clear reference to concrete data.
• Occasional editorial color in describing controversy or high-stakes political drama, especially regarding the Epstein letter and French crisis.

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Summary

This WSJ What’s News episode provides a brisk but detailed overview of major news affecting markets and politics. The headline-grabbing story of Jeffrey Epstein’s birthday book and the disputed Trump letter sets the tone for serious political scrutiny. U.S. labor and housing markets are cautiously analyzed—with particular focus on fault lines such as persistent health services hiring and the surprising drop in lumber prices. Overseas, France’s fiscal and political chaos portend challenges for President Macron and the European economy. The episode distills complex dynamics into actionable insights for listeners following business, finance, and global politics.

Transcript

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[Alex Osola]

Lawyers for Epstein's estate give Congress a copy of the 2003 birthday book that includes a letter bearing Donald Trump's signature. Plus why falling lumber prices spell bad news for the US Economy and France's political and fiscal mess has deepened after the French government collapsed.

[Noemi Bisserbe]

You have a National assembly which is divided in three blocks with views that are impossible to reconcile. So how the new PM will manage to do that remains a big question.

[Alex Osola]

It's Monday, Sept. Sept. 8. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. We start with an exclusive report. Lawyers for Jeffrey Epstein's estate have given Congress a copy of the birthday book put together for the financier's 50th birthday. The book includes a letter with Trump's signature, which he has said doesn't exist. House Oversight Committee members confirmed today that they received a copy of the birthday book, including the letter bearing Trump's signature. The Wall Street Journal in July reported on the book and the letter bearing Trump's name, which contained typewritten text framed by the outline of a naked woman. The letter concluded, quote, happy Birthday and may every day be another wonderful secret. The signature was a squiggly Donald below the waist, mimicking pubic hair. Trump has denied writing the letter or drawing the picture, calling it, quote, a fake thing. He has also filed a lawsuit against the Journal's reporters, Journal publisher Dow Jones, parent company News Corp. And executives, alleging defamation and saying the letter was non existent. A Dow Jones spokeswoman said, quote, we have full confidence in the rigor and accuracy of our reporting. White House press Secretary Caroline Levitt didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. We know by now that the labor market appears to be stalling. Friday's jobs report reinforced the trend, painting a picture of a sharply slowing labor market and the latest reading of the conference board's Employment Trends Index, which is out today, hit its lowest point since early 2021. But the health services sector has so far been one of the bright spots. Can that continue? WSJ economics reporter Justin Leithart is here now with more. Justin, why is the health services sector still going strong when everything else seems to be kind of slowing down?

[Justin Leithart]

So health services traditionally has always just been this steady, growing sector. Health services, it's healthcare jobs, and it's also sort of social assistant jobs. A lot of it is helping the seniors and the elderly. And these jobs are steady because we always go to the doctor. We just have this demand for healthcare that doesn't fluctuate with the economy. So even during the financial crisis, these health services jobs just kept growing and growing, growing. And that's part of the attraction of the sector for a of workers, that it is steady work.

[Alex Osola]

One big distortion I can think of was the pandemic. How did that affect the industry?

[Justin Leithart]

Yeah, that was a real rarity. We saw that the health services sector shed jobs, which almost never happens. That was the shutting down in doctor's offices, people putting off care. All kinds of things happened. And we just saw these large job losses when the pandemic hit. And then, what's more, it took a long time for the sector to come back, in part because some people were probably seeing greener pastures in other areas of the labor market where wages were going up.

[Alex Osola]

Can the sector keep adding jobs?

[Justin Leithart]

It tends to always grow. I would suspect that it keeps on adding jobs. We aren't getting any younger as a society. Right. This is the aging population. We just have these naturally growing health care demands. But the sector might not have as much oomph as it has had in the past. You also have to think about some of these cuts that are coming. Medicaid in particular is important for places like hospitals, nursing homes. There's a significant source of revenue for them. So the picture that we have is one where health services hiring could keep on going, but just not at the same pace as before. And in the context of a labor market where everything else has been kind of weak, that's not great.

[Alex Osola]

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is releasing a preliminary revision to the jobs data for the year that ended in March. What should we be looking for in that data?

[Justin Leithart]

The expectation is that there's going to be a large downward revision. The supposition is that really there haven't been as many companies being formed, that there have been more businesses going out of business, and that is going to lead to a significantly lower job count for March. That just suggests we're a little bit closer to a stall in the labor market than we would like.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ economics reporter Justin Lehart. Thanks, Justin.

[Justin Leithart]

Thank you.

[Alex Osola]

U.S. stocks rose today ahead of inflation and jobs data expected later this week that could influence how fast the Fed the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates this year. Major indexes ended up the Nasdaq added about half a percent, the Dow gained about a quarter of a percent, and The S&P 500 rose roughly 0.2%. Mortgage rates dropped sharply on Friday after weaker than expected. Jobs data boosted expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates this year. According to Mortgage News Daily, which tracks home lending rates, the average rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage fell to 6.29, the lowest level since October and down 16 basis points from a day earlier. The housing market has been sluggish for years due to high home prices and elevated rates. And existing home sales are on track for one of their slowest years in decades. But real estate agents say rates under 6% would be low enough to attract some buyers who have been priced out of the market. Coming up, lower mortgage rates may be a boon for the housing market, but falling lumber prices might signal the opposite. That's after the break.

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[Alex Osola]

Falling lumber prices are sounding an alarm on Wall street about potential problems on Main Street. Wood markets have been whipsawed of late by trade uncertainty and a deteriorating housing market. Futures have dropped more than 20% since hitting a three year high at the beginning of August. Ryan December covers commodities for the Journal and joins me now. Richard Ryan, what do crashing prices show us? Why should we be concerned about this?

[Ryan Dezember]

Lumber prices have traditionally been a really good leading indicator of not only construction, but the economy broadly. It's not just building new houses, but building a new fence, a new deck, doing a lot of repair and renovation, and they're a really good indicator when things are slowing down, and that's what it's suggesting right now.

[Alex Osola]

I mentioned in my intro that trade uncertainty helped to send prices Lower. How vulnerable is lumber to tariffs?

[Ryan Dezember]

Well, we don't know yet. And that's sort of the problem. Canada Supplies call it roughly 25% of the softwood lumber, meaning the wood from conifers, pine trees and spruce trees that we use to build homes and decks and things like that. Now, the US Sawmills have long argued that it's an unfair trade. There's dumping going on, meaning that Canadian sawmills are selling wood in the US for cheaper than they sell it at home, that they're subsidized with power, cheaper logs from the provincial governments, and they've been successful over the years in making that case. And so there are duties charged on Canadian lumber. Now, people think those duties will come down again next year a little bit, but they've made the price really high. Now, the wild card out there is what Trump will do. In addition, if he does anything, he's threatened tariffs on Canada broadly, he's launched a national security investigation in imported wood. And we don't know what will happen of those. But those would be in addition to the duties charged on Canadian lumber, raising the prices further.

[Alex Osola]

Sounds like there's some stuff still up in the air, but where does lumber go from here?

[Ryan Dezember]

Well, right now, inventories were really piled high in the US to get ahead of the higher prices that everyone knew were coming in August as a result of the duties. There wasn't as much building activity as people had thought. And now we've got a lot of wood in the US More than enough to last for a while, probably through the year in some situations. So no one's buying. So sawmills are starting to cut back hours, reduce shifts, idle some mills, both in Canada and the U.S. and it's all looking like a big wood glut from here on out.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Ryan Dezember. Thanks, Ryan.

[Ryan Dezember]

Thank you.

[Alex Osola]

Today, the U.S. supreme Court loosened restrictions on immigration raids in Los Angeles. A judge had put those limits in place after finding that federal authorities were likely using illegal racial profiling tactics. In a brief, unsigned order, the court granted an emergency request by the Trump administration to remove the limits while litigation continues. The majority didn't explain its reasoning, but Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote a concurrence saying that the decision was consistent with court precedent for federal officers to conduct immigration checks in parts of Los Angeles where violations were most, such as where day laborers gather looking for work. The court's three liberal justices dissented. The French government has collapsed for the second time in less than a year. A no confidence motion against the government of Prime Minister Francois Bairou won the support of 364 lawmakers in the 577 seat National assembly, forcing him to tender his resignation. Noemi Bisserbe covers French politics and foreign policy for WSJ and is here to tell us more. Noemi, the budget deficit was the big issue here. France's borrowing costs are rising, surpassing those of Greece and entering the territory of Italy. What will this latest development mean for the French economy?

[Noemi Bisserbe]

The French Prime Minister called this confidence vote to try to really force lawmakers to acknowledge the dire state of France's finances and engage in a real discussion on how to, well, address this issue. His gamble went spectacularly wrong because opposition lawmakers instead united against him and his government, and he's now forced to resign. The economy has resisted well so far in France, considering its fiscal situation, but obviously its borrowing costs are rising. It now represents like the biggest budget item for the French government. And there is an urgent need to show investors that the government is working on this problem, because if it doesn't, then borrowing costs are going to continue to rise and it's going to affect France's economy in a big way.

[Alex Osola]

Given how this went for Bairu, what can the next prime minister do about this issue?

[Noemi Bisserbe]

Macron has very limited options here because if he picks someone from the left, he risks seeing some of the pro business overhaul he has implemented in recent years getting undone. And if he picks someone from his ranks, it will be very difficult, difficult for this person to build the support to pass a new budget before the end of the year.

[Alex Osola]

You mentioned French President Emmanuel Macron. This is his second government to fall in less than a year. What is the appetite among the electorate to do this dance again?

[Noemi Bisserbe]

Well, there is appetite for new parliamentary elections, which is what the far right is calling for today, hoping that it will give them a clear majority. But if you look at polls, chances are that if we do this again, we'll end up with the same divided national assembly and stuck in the same situation where basically there's no clear majority with no clear path out of this crisis.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Noemi Bisserbe. Thanks, Noemi.

[Noemi Bisserbe]

Thanks.

[Alex Osola]

And that's what's news for this Monday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Pierre Bienname and Rodney Davis, with supervising producer Michael Kosmides. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.