WSJ What’s News: Fed Kicks Off Most Important Meeting of the Year

Date: September 16, 2025
Host: Kaitlin McCabe
Key Guests: Matt Grossman (WSJ Economics Reporter), Soundbites from Donald Trump, Stephen Miller, Patrick Coffey

Episode Overview

This episode centers around the Federal Reserve’s most pivotal policy meeting of 2025, heightened political pressure from President Trump, and market anticipation over potential rate cuts. It also updates listeners on major foreign policy, technology investments, and developments in media and labor statistics.

Federal Reserve’s Crucial September Meeting

Setting the Stage: Market and Political Tensions

• [00:18] Kaitlin McCabe introduces the day’s top stories, spotlighting the start of the Fed's two-day policy meeting. Investors and markets are watching closely as the Fed weighs possible interest rate cuts—a decision complicated by shifting market conditions and political pressure.
• It’s been about nine months since the last rate cut (prior to Trump's presidency), and “traders are widely expecting that the central bank will lower rates by a quarter point. But Trump himself wants a larger cut as part of what has become an unprecedented pressure campaign.”
  — Kaitlin McCabe [00:34]

Balancing Inflation and Employment

• [01:32] Matt Grossman explains the Fed’s position:
  • Job creation has notably slowed (“fewer than 30,000 new jobs a month”), raising concern on the labor side.
  • Inflation (PCE index) is at about 2.9%, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Most Fed officials see policy as “still on the restrictive side” and aim to move “closer to neutral while probably still leaning a bit on the restrictive side.”
    — Matt Grossman [01:32]

Expectations and the Trump Factor

• [02:25]–[03:22] Kaitlin and Matt discuss market forecasts:

  • Futures markets expect a quarter-point rate cut. Larger cuts seem unlikely given persistent inflation.
  • The precedent: Last September’s (2024) half-point cut was driven by sudden labor market softening.
  • But “most bets are that they’re going to stick with the more normal quarter point cut… especially true given that inflation is still a concern and in fact moving in the wrong direction…”
    — Matt Grossman [02:40]

• [03:33] The Trump administration is pressuring the Fed for a larger cut.

  • Trump has tried to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook and publicly criticized Jerome Powell and the Fed's new headquarters renovation.
  • “Perhaps a cut will assuage Trump a little bit this week. On the other hand, Trump posted on social media just on Monday morning that Powell must cut interest rates now and bigger than he had in mind…”
    — Matt Grossman [03:33]

Board Dynamics and Decision-Making

• [04:21] The addition of Trump appointee Stephen Myron to the Fed board (confirmed the night before) introduces uncertainty:
  • He’s “just one vote out of a 12-person committee,” but could dissent and call for a half-point cut (“He might be alone… could be joined by… Governor Michelle Bowman… [or] Christopher Waller.”)
    — Matt Grossman [04:29]

Looking Forward: The Dot Plot

• [05:18] This meeting will produce not just a rate change but also updated projections (“dot plot”).
• “[People] will really be looking at that dot plot to see does the Fed think we’re going to get another interest rate cut later this year, two more cuts, and what’s next year going to look like?”
  — Matt Grossman [05:59]

Global Flashpoints and White House Initiatives

Israel’s Gaza Offensive

• [06:09] Israeli ground forces enter Gaza City with intense bombardment, following a meeting between PM Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• Netanyahu has called Gaza the “last important stronghold of Hamas.”
• Rubio pushes for ceasefire, but “leaves Israel yesterday with a pessimistic outlook as Netanyahu now moves to end the war against Hamas with military force instead of diplomacy.”
  — Kaitlin McCabe [06:09]

U.S. Drug Interdiction at Sea

• [06:55] U.S. Navy strikes a boat believed to be carrying narcotics, killing three.
• When asked for proof drugs were on board, Trump asserts:
  “Well, we have proof. All you have to do is look at the cargo that was like, it spattered all over the ocean, big bags of cocaine and Fenton [fentanyl] all over the place… Plus, we have recorded evidence that they were leaving. We've recorded them.”
  — Donald Trump [07:13]
• Reporter notes: Video shared by Trump revealed no visible drugs; experts question narrative on Venezuelan fentanyl smuggling.

Political Division After Charlie Kirk Shooting

• [08:11] White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller promises sweeping actions against “left wing groups promoting violence”:
  “With God as my witness, we are going to use every resource we have… to identify, disrupt, dismantle and destroy these networks and make America safe again for the American people. It will happen and we will do it in Charlie’s name.”
  — Stephen Miller [08:11]

• Vice President J.D. Vance encourages public reporting of comments celebrating Kirk’s death:
  “So when you see someone celebrating Charlie’s murder, call them out in hell. Call their employer.”
  — J.D. Vance [09:05]

• Consequences: Multiple workers fired for online posts about shooting; charges against the accused shooter pending.

Markets & Business Updates

Google’s $6 Billion UK Investment

• [10:10] Google plans over $6B in UK investments (AI, energy, R&D, training), generating 8,000 jobs/year.
• Reflects U.S. tech sector expansion in Europe, paralleling moves by Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon.

BLS Hiring Freeze Lifted

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics is hiring again after a freeze hampered inflation data gathering.
• Erica McIntarfer, ex-BLS head (fired by Trump in August), to give her first public remarks.

Streaming TV Advertising Revolution

• Media giants Comcast and Roku are rolling out AI-driven, self-serve ad tools, aimed at enabling “mom and pop” businesses to create streaming TV ads.

• “[Small companies] can say here’s a picture of the shirt that we want to sell and the AI will create a 15 second video ad for them in a couple of minutes, free of charge.”
  — Patrick Coffey [11:43]

• Ad spending on these platforms is projected to outpace traditional cable by 2026.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “[The Fed is] trying to balance inflation and unemployment and lately they’ve been in a tough corner because those have been both moving in the wrong direction.”
  — Matt Grossman [01:32]

• “Trump posted on social media just on Monday morning that Powell must cut interest rates now and bigger than he had in mind, which suggests that Trump wants to see more than just that quarter point cut this week.”
  — Matt Grossman [03:33]

• “With God as my witness, we are going to use every resource we have… to identify, disrupt, dismantle and destroy these networks and make America safe again for the American people. It will happen and we will do it in Charlie’s name.”
  — Stephen Miller [08:11]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:18 – Top stories and Fed meeting introduction
• 01:32 – Matt Grossman on labor market, inflation, Fed outlook
• 02:40 – Rate cut expectations and recent precedent
• 03:33 – Political pressure from Trump on the Fed
• 04:29 – New Trump-appointed board member’s potential impact
• 05:18 – What the Fed’s “dot plot” will reveal
• 06:09 – Israel-Gaza military escalation
• 06:55 – U.S. naval strike against alleged drug traffickers
• 08:11 – Miller and Vance on political fallout from Kirk shooting
• 10:10 – Google’s UK investment and BLS staffing
• 11:43 – Comcast/Roku AI-driven streaming TV ads

This episode offers a high-level yet nuanced snapshot of the tension between monetary policy, political influence, and global events shaping markets and institutions in September 2025.