Government Shutdown Poised to Become Longest in U.S. History

Summary

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WSJ What’s News – November 4, 2025

Episode: Government Shutdown Poised to Become Longest in U.S. History

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Episode Overview

This episode covers several breaking news stories, with its main focus on the imminent record-breaking government shutdown in the U.S., the political implications, and prospects for a resolution. Other key topics include high-stakes developments in the obesity drug market, a warning signal from U.S. stock valuations, and a recap of the legacy of former Vice President Dick Cheney following news of his death. The episode effectively balances analysis of government gridlock and market signals with updates on major business and political shifts.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. Obesity Drug Market Shake-Up

(00:51–03:16)

• Negotiations for Lower Drug Prices

  • The Trump administration is mediating with drug giants Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to make blockbuster weight loss medications more affordable, possibly down to $149 for a month’s supply through a government-run, Trump-branded pharmaceuticals website.
  • Proposed deals could expand Medicare and Medicaid coverage for expensive obesity drugs (e.g., Wegovy, Zepbound), which are currently available under certain health-related conditions but not widely for weight loss.

• Corporate Bidding War for Mitcera

  • Novo Nordisk and Pfizer have intensified their battle to acquire Mitcera, a startup with no approved drugs but significant weight loss drug potential.
    • Novo Nordisk’s latest $10 billion valuation outbids Pfizer’s $8.1 billion offer.
    • Legal disputes have arisen as both companies seek to gain an edge in the surging obesity drug market.

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2. Stock Market Warning Signals

(03:16–05:31)

• Historic Shiller PE Ratio Milestone

  • The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (Shiller PE) ratio, calculated over ten years and inflation-adjusted, now exceeds 40—a level previously seen only during the 1999 tech bubble.
  • Spencer Jakab, Markets AM columnist, explains the significance and limitations of this indicator.

  Notable Quotes:

  • Spencer Jakab (03:16):
    “There are dozens of ways to slice and dice the market and to value it. But this is really the gold standard… It's proven to be an extremely reliable indicator of what to expect in the several years ahead of us.”
  • Spencer Jakab (04:13):
    "The market is extremely expensive. It's in about the 1 or 2% range of being most expensive in history as far back as we have numbers."

• Implications for Investors

  • The high Shiller PE suggests lower expected returns and increased risk.
  • Models from Research Affiliates advise diversification, noting that much of recent years’ gains were driven by large-cap tech (e.g., Nvidia, Microsoft).

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3. Stock Market Pullback & Consumer Brands

(05:35–06:28)

• Following a record-shattering run, major indexes pulled back:
  • Nasdaq: -2%
  • S&P 500: -1%+
  • Dow Jones: -0.5%
  • Yum Brands defies the trend, rising 7.3% on talks of selling Pizza Hut.

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4. 2025 U.S. Election Day

(06:45–08:08)

• Key races:
  • Governor in NJ & VA, NYC mayoral election, and a California ballot measure on congressional maps.
  • Results may signal voter sentiment toward Trump’s second administration.

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5. Government Shutdown: Poised to Break Record

(08:08–10:04)

• Record-Breaking Duration

  • Day 35: The shutdown, ongoing since October 1, is set to become the longest in U.S. history.
  • Consequences: Hundreds of thousands furloughed, essential workers unpaid, disruption of SNAP (food aid) for millions.

• Negotiation Dynamics

  • Growing optimism for a bipartisan deal—particularly in the Senate.
  • Key sticking points: Democrats demand healthcare-related funding; divisions persist among House Republicans, with Speaker Johnson under pressure from both moderate and hardline conservatives.

  Notable Quotes:

  • Katie Stetch Farig, WSJ Congress reporter (08:08):
    “We’re also seeing optimism that we haven’t seen before… I hate to use the term cautiously optimistic, but that’s where we are right now.”
  • Katie Stetch Farig (08:44):
    "Speaker Johnson’s in a tough spot… he also has a very strong conservative anti-spending flank that would oppose any sort of extension."
  • Katie Stetch Farig (09:36):
    “We've seen twice in the last week now President Trump take to social media and pressure Republican colleagues to bypass Democrats and the filibuster to restart the federal government.”

• Trump’s Role

  • President Trump publicly pressures Republicans to find a solution independent of Democratic cooperation, creating tension within the GOP.

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6. The Legacy of Dick Cheney

(10:08–11:32)

• Passing of an Influential Vice President

  • Dick Cheney dies at 84 due to complications from pneumonia and heart disease.
  • Cheney was a prominent architect of post-9/11 policy and the Iraq War; served under four Republican presidents; later became a critic of both Obama and Trump.
  • Noted for his partisanship flip, having endorsed Democrat Kamala Harris for president in 2024.

  Quote from Dick Cheney (2014) (10:08):
  “We did exactly what needed to be done in order to catch those who were guilty on 9/11 and to prevent a further attack. And we were successful on both parts.”

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Spencer Jakab (03:16):
  “This is really the gold standard… proven to be an extremely reliable indicator of what to expect in the several years ahead of us.”
• Spencer Jakab (04:13):
  “There's definitely a very, very clear relationship between how high the Shiller PE is and how low your expected returns are.”
• Katie Stetch Farig (08:08):
  “I hate to use the term cautiously optimistic, but that’s where we are right now.”
• Katie Stetch Farig (08:44):
  "Speaker Johnson’s in a tough spot… I’m just not sure I trust him and I don't know what he would do with it."
• Dick Cheney (2014, 10:08):
  “We did exactly what needed to be done in order to catch those who were guilty on 9/11 and to prevent a further attack.”

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Important Segment Timestamps

• Obesity Drug Market & Pricing — 00:51–03:16
• Stock Market Valuation/Warning — 03:16–05:31
• Market Pullback & Brand News — 05:35–06:28
• Election Day Update — 06:45–08:08
• Shutdown Negotiation Deep Dive w/ Katie Stetch Farig — 08:08–10:04
• Dick Cheney Obituary & Legacy — 10:08–11:32

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Conclusion

This episode offers a snapshot of political deadlock and economic anxiety, with thoughtful analysis of warning signs in the financial markets and the potential for Congressional compromise to end the historic shutdown. It also provides insight into Big Pharma’s ongoing transformation and reflects on Dick Cheney’s outsized impact on American politics. The tone is measured, fact-driven, and brisk, matching the journalistic approach listeners have come to expect from the Wall Street Journal.

Transcript

[A]

This podcast is brought to you by Dynatrace, the leader in AI Powered Observability. With analytics, automation and next level intelligence on one unified platform, Dynatrace delivers the visibility and real time insights you need to deliver better, more secure software, successful AI initiatives and innovation at the speed of business. Turn data into decisions that drive your business forward with AI powered Observability where it counts. Learn [e-mail] WSJ that's www. N a T-R-A c e.com WSJ.

[B]

The government shutdown nears a record as the longest in US History plus what an ominous milestone for a famous method of valuing stocks tells us about what's next for markets.

[C]

It's proven to be an extremely reliable indicator of what to expect in the several years ahead of us.

[B]

And former Vice President Dick Cheney, an architect of the US war on terror, has died at 84. It's Tuesday, November 4, March Sarai I'm Sabrina Siddiqui for the Wall Street Journal, sitting in for Alex Osla. This is the PM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. The Trump administration is negotiating with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to offer their blockbuster weight loss drugs at lower prices, as low as $149 for a month's supply through a Trump branded government website for buying medications. People familiar with the matter say the proposed agreements would also mean Medicare and Medicaid coverage of expensive obesity drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound. Medicare drug benefit plans today can cover the weight loss drugs, just not only for losing weight, for example, they're available for reducing risk of heart attacks or sleep apnea, and few states offer Medicaid coverage for the drugs for weight loss. And that's not the only news today about the weight loss drug market. There is a new twist in the high stakes bidding war for the obesity drug developer mtsera, as Novo Nordisk and Pfizer have both raised their offers for the company. Metsera said today that Novo Nordisk's proposal values the company at approximately $10 billion, up from its previous bid of $9 billion. Pfizer, which had struck a deal to buy Mitcera for up to $7.3 billion in September, is now offering about $8.1 billion. Novo Nordisk's effort to buy Mitcera has touched off a legal battle with Pfizer. The fight over the three year old company, which has no approved drugs, highlights how valuable the weight loss drug business has become. A Famous measure for valuing US Stocks has crossed a big milestone that points to some trouble ahead. That measure is a calculation of stocks price to earnings ratio by Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller. It takes a decade's worth of corporate earnings and adjusts them for inflation. And it topped 40 last month for the second time ever. The only other time it reached this level was in 1999, the peak of the tech stock bubble. Spencer Jacob, who writes the Wall Street Journal's Markets AM newsletter, joins us now to discuss. Spencer, explain this measure to us. Why is it important to investors?

[C]

So there are dozens of ways to slice and dice the market and to value it. But, but this is really the gold standard. It was first proposed, actually way before Robert Shiller made it popular, by Benjamin Graham, who's the mentor of Warren Buffett, who said, you know, I think you should just look back and you should look through an entire business cycle and adjust for inflation because that will really fairly tell you what companies have earned and then it tells you where you are. Whereas what you commonly hear is the market's PE ratio is X, which is just looking at what analysts are forecasting for the next year, which is A is frequently too optimistic and B is just looking at a single year. You know, profit margins rise and fall, recessions happen, inflation happens. And so this normalizes for all that. And it's proven to be an extremely reliable indicator of what to expect in the several years ahead of us.

[B]

You're right. This is only the second time it broke above 40. How significant is that?

[C]

One of the criticisms of this measure is that people will look back at the entire history of it and we have a history going back to 1881 and say, okay, yeah, the long run average of this measure is 17. We're at 40. Oh my God. And you have to recognize that that's not fair because in 1881, the US was like an emerging market. Now go back to 1990, you had CNBC, you had computers, and the average is a much higher 27. We're way above that. There's definitely a very, very clear relationship between how high the Shiller PE is and how low your expected returns are. And the market is extremely expensive. It's in about the 1 or 2% range of being most expensive in history. As far back as we have numbers.

[B]

You mentioned a model from Index Developer Research Affiliates that suggests some types of companies could have better returns based on these cyclically adjusted PE ratios. What are they predicting?

[C]

What it's telling you is that you really would benefit from diversifying away from the things that have done very, very well, which are these large US companies like Nvidia and Microsoft, the MA7 and other tech companies in their orbit that really have produced the lion's share of returns in the last 10 years.

[B]

That was the Wall Street Journal. Spencer. Jacob Spencer, thank you.

[C]

Thank you.

[B]

And a note of caution is creeping into markets after a months long run. Higher finance executives at a summit in Hong Kong today warned that the winning streak has made stocks vulnerable to a pullback. The Nasdaq led declines, dropping 2%. The S&P fell more than 1%, while the Dow was off by about half a percent. One company that bucked the trend was Yum Brands. The restaurant chain owner's shares gained 7.3% after it said it was considering selling its Pizza Hut business. Coming up, the government shutdown is poised to break the record for the longest funding lapse in U.S. history tonight. But could the end be near? That's after the break. Hi, this is Gunjan Banerjee and this is Telus Demos. We're reporters at the Wall Street Journal and The hosts of WSJ's take on the Week.

[D]

Take on the Week is a weekly show that gives listeners a leg up in the world of markets and investing.

[B]

From the Fed's moves to market bubbles, we dive into the biggest deals, key players and business news ahead.

[D]

If you're looking for more news and tools that can help you navigate the markets, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall street journal.

[B]

Visit subscribe.WSJ.com takeontheweek to subscribe now, as you've heard from us, today is Election Day in the US with races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia, a mayoral election in New York City, and a ballot measure in California that would redraw the state's congressional maps to benefit Democrats. The outcomes could offer insight on how Americans feel about President Trump's second administration and whether Democrats can capitalize on voter dissatisfaction. To follow the races and hear from voters, go to our live blog [e-mail] the government shutdown is on track to break the record tonight for the longest funding freeze in US History. But a breakthrough might be on the horizon. Lawmakers in Washington said they're increasingly optimistic that they can reach a bipartisan deal to end the shutdown that began on October 1st. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers have been furloughed because of the funding lapse, while air traffic controllers and other government employees are working without paying. The shutdown has also disrupted snap food aid for Tens of millions of Americans. Katie Stetch Farig covers Congress for the Wall Street Journal and has the latest. Katie, we are on day 35 of the shutdown. There's been a lot of focus on the lapse in food aid and delays at airports. Do you think we've reached a tipping point? Where do negotiations stand?

[D]

Yeah, for all the pressures that you just described, we're seeing that weigh on lawmakers heavily here on Capitol Hill. We're also seeing optimism that we haven't seen before. Last week we saw discussions here and there between senators talking about different dates, different scenarios by which the government could set a new deadline for government funding and come together with a vote that would incorporate some of the demands from Democrats we have on health care related funding. I hate to use the term cautiously optimistic, but that's where we are right now.

[B]

The optimism you talk about seems to mostly be coming from the Senate. What about House Republicans?

[D]

Any deal that is struck on the Senate side will also need approval from the House. We did hear Hakeem Jeffries say earlier today that of course they're watching any Senate side developments and open to seeing any bipartisan deal. But that does not take into account Speaker Johnson's position. He's in a tough spot because some Republicans in his conference are supportive of these subsidies that Democrats have made a condition of reopening the government. But he also has a very strong conservative anti spending flank that would oppose any sort of extension. On the Senate side, we are seeing some moderate Democrats say, hey, I trust my Republican colleagues, but when it comes to Johnson, I'm just not sure I trust him and I don't know what he would do with it.

[B]

And President Trump is putting more pressure on Republicans to bypass Democrats and end the impasse without their votes. Where is he in all this?

[D]

We've seen twice in the last week. Now President Trump take to social media and pressure Republican colleagues to bypass Democrats and the filibuster to restart the federal government. We've been talking to Republican senators for the last couple of days now, some of whom remain very uncomfortable with that scenario. But we do expect Trump to ramp up that pressure, especially if he doesn't see any progress in the next couple of days.

[B]

That was the Wall Street Journal's Katie Stetschferick. Thank you, Katie.

[D]

Thanks for having me.

[B]

And finally, we did exactly what needed to be done in order to catch those who were guilty on 911 and to prevent a further attack. And we were successful on both parts. That was former Vice President Dick Cheney. He was defending the George W. Bush administration's approach to the war on terror after 911 on Fox News in 2014. Cheney, one of the most powerful vice presidents in U.S. history, died yesterday of complications of pneumonia and cardiac and vascular disease. He was 84. Cheney was a national security hawk who served four Republican presidents. He advocated for the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and defended it long after he left office, even as many Americans came to view the war as a strategic and humanitarian disaster. After he left office, he was a leading conservative critic of the Obama administration and then became a critic of Donald Trump, endorsing Democrat Kamala Harris for president in 2024. And that's what's NEWS for this Tuesday afternoon. In case you missed it, heads up that we dropped a new episode of what's NEWS in Earnings earlier today. We're looking at Big Pharma, the competition over weight loss treatments and how drug makers are dealing with the Trump administration on drug prices and tariffs. That's in the feed now. As for today's show, it was produced by Pierre Bienname and Zoe Culkin with supervising producer Talia. I'm Sabrina Siddiqui for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning.

[D]

Thanks for listening.