Holiday Jobs Are Harder to Come By This Year

Summary

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Podcast Summary: WSJ What’s News — Holiday Jobs Are Harder to Come By This Year

Date: November 11, 2025
Host: Alex Osola
Guests: Justin Lehart (WSJ Economics Reporter), Richard Rubin (WSJ Tax Policy Reporter)

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Episode Overview

In this episode, host Alex Osola examines why temporary holiday jobs are scarcer this year, with insights from WSJ's Justin Lehart on how economic uncertainty and consumer spending trends are impacting seasonal hiring. The episode also covers ongoing effects of the recent government shutdown, an unexpected twist in the NBA, corporate tax dilemmas, surging luxury hotel prices, and major news headlines from around the globe.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Economic Impact of the Government Shutdown

• Long-Term Effects Minimal:
  Justin Lehart explains that though a government shutdown slows economic activity, most of this activity is later "made up" after the government reopens.

  "A year from now, you would expect the economy to be really just a hair weaker than it would have been without the shutdown, but not so anyone would really notice."
  — Justin Lehart [01:51]

• Difficulty Measuring Impact:
  Both the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and private economists find it hard to quantify the precise economic toll due to uncertainty about consumer behaviors and overlapping economic trends.

2. Shrinking Holiday Job Market

• Companies Dialing Back Plans:
  Major employers like UPS, Target, and Macy's have not announced large hiring numbers as in past years, reflecting concerns about consumer spending and sluggish wage growth.

  "We've seen companies dial back these hiring plans. So typically UPS says they're going to hire a bunch of workers this year. They didn't put a number on that."
  — Justin Lehart [03:16]

• Impact of Uncertainty:
  Persistent economic unpredictability makes it challenging for businesses to plan, leaving companies cautious about seasonal hiring.
• Who’s Most Affected?
  Reduced holiday job availability impacts lower-income and young workers, who depend on stacking seasonal jobs for income.

  "They're really important for some people. They move from seasonal job to seasonal job ... If it's tougher to find that holiday job, it does make them worse off than they would have been otherwise."
  — Justin Lehart [04:11]

3. Market and Business News Highlights

• Stocks Rally on Shutdown’s End:
  Congressional progress on ending the shutdown lifts the Dow and S&P 500, while tech stocks lag.
• Notable NBA Shakeup:
  Dallas Mavericks fire GM Nico Harrison after trading away Luka Doncic—a move labeled as "the most ill advised trade in NBA history."

4. Corporate Tax Break Dilemma

• The Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT):
  Companies with over $1B in profits face a 15% minimum tax, making it harder to benefit from new tax breaks passed in the 2025 “one big beautiful bill act.”

  "Even if they have tax breaks ... the CAMT goes in and takes them back."
  — Richard Rubin [07:22]

• Response from Corporations:
  Short-term: Take the accounting hit and potentially recoup losses in future years.
  Long-term: Lobby Treasury to relax rules and allow use of tax breaks as originally intended.
• Quote:

  "There's a regulatory ask right now that the Trump administration will consider."
  — Richard Rubin [08:05]

5. Luxury Hotel Booking Surge & Other Headlines

• Record Prices for Luxury Hotels:
  Despite a dip in foreign tourists and white-collar jobs, U.S. luxury hotels hit a record average of $394/night, driven by wealthy domestic travelers thriving from stock and real estate gains.
• Infant Formula Recall:
  ByHeart recalls all U.S. products after FDA links to a botulism outbreak (15 infants affected, no deaths).
• India-Pakistan Tensions:
  Deadly explosions in both countries raise regional tensions; both governments blame each other amid ongoing investigations.

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Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• "A year from now, you would expect the economy to be really just a hair weaker than it would have been without the shutdown, but not so anyone would really notice.” — Justin Lehart [01:51]
• "Typically UPS says they're going to hire a bunch of workers this year. They didn't put a number on that. Same goes for Target, same goes for Macy's." — Justin Lehart [03:16]
• "If it's tougher to find that holiday job, it does make them worse off than they would have been otherwise." — Justin Lehart [04:11]
• "Even if they have tax breaks ... the CAMT goes in and takes them back." — Richard Rubin [07:22]
• "There's a regulatory ask right now that the Trump administration will consider." — Richard Rubin [08:05]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• [00:32] Episode focus — Holiday seasonal temp jobs harder to find
• [01:00] Impact of government shutdown on US economy
• [03:00] Why companies are dialing back holiday hiring
• [04:07] Effects on workers who rely on seasonal jobs
• [07:22] Companies and the new corporate alternative minimum tax
• [09:02] Record luxury hotel bookings, ByHeart infant formula recall, and India-Pakistan news

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Tone & Language

The episode is brisk, factual, and businesslike—typical of WSJ’s straight-ahead, analytical style, with clear explanations and emphasis on data, economic policy, and real world consequences for workers and corporations alike.

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Summary prepared for listeners seeking concise, high-value insights with context and direct quotes from WSJ’s flagship news podcast.

Transcript

[WhatsApp Narrator]

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[Alex Osola]

The temp jobs that people rely on during the holiday season are looking harder to find this year.

[Justin Lehart]

Typically UPS says they're gonna hire a bunch of workers this year. They didn't put a number on that. Same goes for Target, same goes for Macy's.

[Alex Osola]

Meanwhile, the average cost of a room at a luxury hotel is at a record high. And why some large companies won't be able to take advantage of all their new tax break ALEX It's Tuesday, November 11th. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. The end of the long government shutdown appears in sight, but the US Will continue to feel its effects after the government reopens. Calculating that impact on the US Economy is difficult. And uncertainty is also playing out in the economy as companies staff up for the holiday shopping season. The country's big retailers, warehouse and shipping companies, appear to be dialing their holiday hiring plans way, way back this year. I'm joined now by WSJ economics reporter Justin lehart. Justin, let's start with the economic impact of the shutdown broadly. Is it expected to affect the US Economy in the long term?

[Justin Lehart]

Not that much in the long term. What a shutdown does is it depresses activity and then almost all of that activity gets made up later. So people who were being paid like federal workers, they're going to get back pay in this instance. And that means that things that they weren't spending money on during the shutdown, they will spend more money on after the shutdown. A year from now, you would expect the economy to be really just a hair weaker than it would have been without the shutdown, but not so anyone would really notice.

[Alex Osola]

So the Congressional Budget Office said a six week shutdown cuts GDP growth in the fourth quarter by one and a half percentage points. Some economists have more optimistic estimates. But why is this so difficult to figure out?

[Justin Lehart]

Actually, it's just hard to tease out this kind of stuff. You're saying like how much did people reduce their spending as opposed to drawing down savings? What did the disruptions to snap benefits do. What did worries about travel do? And it happens at a moment when we're uncertain about what was going on with the economy. Anyway, the word of the year for.

[Alex Osola]

The economy has been uncertainty. And I'm curious whether this uncertainty is affecting companies holiday hiring plans. So you have another story that published today about how companies seem to be gearing up for less holiday hiring than in past years. How is that playing a role here?

[Justin Lehart]

That's probably more to do with what we were seeing with consumer spending, with wage growth struggling to keep up with rising prices. So we've seen companies dial back these hiring plans. So typically UPS says they're going to hire a bunch of workers this year. They didn't put a number on that. Same goes for Target. Same goes for Macy's.

[Alex Osola]

Is uncertainty around data on the economy affecting companies hiring plans?

[Justin Lehart]

This is having not just effects on the data, but the actual economy. Things are sort of bouncing around. You're going to see reduced spending as a result of the shutdown. Well, how much of that is the result of the shutdown? How much of that is a result of something else? I don't know. Creates a lot of uncertainty there. That has to be tough. As anyone who's doing any kind of business planning, where am I going to expand, where I'm going to do these investments? It's really hard to know what does.

[Alex Osola]

This mean for workers, especially low income workers.

[Justin Lehart]

These are jobs that typically go to lower income workers to young workers. And you could think of them as, oh, they're just temporary, they're just for the holidays. But they're really important for some people. They move from seasonal job to seasonal job, then they couple these jobs together to make their work life. And if it's tougher to find that holiday job, it does make them worse off than they would have been otherwise.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ economics reporter Justin lehart. Thank you, Justin.

[Justin Lehart]

Thanks.

[Alex Osola]

And as you know, the shutdown has led to thousands of canceled flights. If flight restrictions have disrupted your travel plans in the past few days, let us know. Send a voice memo to wnpodsj.com or leave a voicemail with your name and location at 332-214-8472. We'll also put those contacts in the show notes. US stocks turned mostly higher today as Congress moved closer to ending the government shutdown. The Dow rose 1.2% in its third straight day of gains. The S&P 500 also rose for the third session in a row, ending slightly higher. Healthcare and energy sectors climbed while tech stocks lagged. The NASDAQ slipped 0.3%. Wall street isn't the only place you can find a bad trade. Nico Harrison, general manager of the Dallas Mavericks, has lost his job over one Nine months ago. Harrison traded away Luka Doncic, a perennial NBA all star and one of the best players in the world, to the Los Angeles Lakers. The sports world was shocked. Dallas fans erupted. You can hear them chanting, fire Nico at this April game in a clip posted by espn. Now those fans have gotten their wish. The Mavericks have fired Harrison after a disappointing season, bringing the saga of the most ill advised trade in NBA history to a close. Coming up, large companies looking to take advantage of this year's tax breaks are finding more taxes. That's after the break. Hey, this is Alex from what's News. Thanks so much for being a listener of the show. If you're looking for more insights and tools to understand the latest headlines, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall street journal. Visit subscribe.WSJ.com whatsnews to subscribe large companies trying to claim some of the tax cuts Republicans passed this summer are running into a problem, the corporate tax increase that Democrats passed three years ago. Facebook owner Meta Platforms Qualcomm and other companies say they're getting hit by the Corporate Alternative minimum tax, the 15% tax rate floor that was part of the Biden administration's inflation reduction Act. WSJ tax policy reporter Richard Rubin is here to break down this multi billion dollar corporate tax conundrum. Okay, Richard, what is the issue that these companies are running into?

[Richard Rubin]

They're running into the corporate alternative minimum tax, the C A mt, the Kamti as we call it in tax circles, something where companies that have at least a billion dollars in profits look at their financial statement income. And if that's less than 15%, then they have to bump up their taxes to 15%. So even if they have tax breaks that would work under the regular tax system that Congress has authorized, the Kamti goes in and takes them back. What's happening now is the one big beautiful bill act of 2025 gave companies some expanded tax breaks and companies are like, oh great. And then they're like, oh wait a minute, if we take all of those, that's going to push us into this minimum tax.

[Alex Osola]

What are the companies doing about this in the short term and the long term?

[Richard Rubin]

In the short term, they just take the accounting hit. The way Kamti works is if you're in it for one year and then out of it another year, you can use the excess kamti that you paid to cover your regular taxes next year. But what happens if you're perpetually going to be in Camden is you just have to say, oh, well, we've got a big pile of tax breaks under the regular system that we're not going to be able to use. And so when those things are unusable, then that's a negative on your earnings statement. In the more medium term, you're seeing companies and their coalitions push for the Treasury Department to write relaxed rules to say no. Congress really meant to let us get these deferred tax breaks in 2025 and 2026, and it shouldn't count for campy purposes. And we'll see whether treasury says yes or not. But there's a regulatory ask right now that the Trump administration will consider.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ tax policy reporter Richard Rubin. Thanks so much, Richard.

[Richard Rubin]

Thank you.

[Alex Osola]

Despite a drop off in foreign tourists and a job slump among white collar workers, the wealthy are splurging on hotels like never before. Data firm Costar says the average price of a room at luxury hotels in the US hit a record $394 a night. This affluent travelers made richer in recent years by stock market rallies and real estate gains are splurging. COSTAR says bookings for luxury properties are up 2 1/2% this year through September, while demand for mid tier and cheaper hotels dropped slightly. Infant formula maker By Heart has recalled all of its products in the US after the Food and Drug Administration opened an investigation into a botulism outbreak. The FDA says 15 infants with suspected or confirmed cases of botulism have been reported in a dozen states and each child consumed Bihart Formula. No deaths have been reported. The agency says Bihart's products make up less than 1% of all infant formula sold in the U.S. bihart says it hasn't found spores that produce botulism in any unopened can of its formula and recalled its products under an abundance of caution. And deadly explosions this week in India and Pakistan are threatening to raise tensions between the two countries. A suicide bombing outside a Courthouse in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital, killed 12 people today. Pakistan's prime minister blamed today's suicide bombing on terrorists backed by India. India denies Pakistan's allegations and says Pakistan is trying to deflect attention from its internal political problems. The Pakistan bombing follows a blast in New Delhi yesterday that set several cars on fire, killing eight people and injuring at least 20 others. Police haven't determined the cause of the explosion in India and India's antiterrorism agency is investigating it. And that's what's news for this Tuesday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Zoe Kulkin with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.