How Giving Over Its Oil to the U.S. Could Revive Venezuela’s Economy

Summary

WSJ What’s News – PM Edition

Episode: How Giving Over Its Oil to the U.S. Could Revive Venezuela’s Economy
Host: Alex Osola | Date: January 9, 2026

Overview

In this episode, the Wall Street Journal’s “What’s News” dives into two major stories: the continued sluggishness of the U.S. labor market at the end of 2025, and a developing agreement under which Venezuela would turn over significant amounts of crude oil to the U.S. for managed sales—with proceeds meant to benefit the Venezuelan population and potentially unlock a path toward economic recovery in the crisis-hit Latin American nation. The episode features in-depth commentary from WSJ correspondents and analysis of political, economic, and legal factors that frame this high-stakes policy experiment.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

U.S. Labor Market: Sluggish but Stable

Guest: Harriet Tory, WSJ Economics Correspondent

• 2025 Job Numbers: The year ended with only 584,000 new jobs, a sharp drop from 2024’s 2 million (01:45).
• Economic Growth vs. Hiring: Despite strong economic growth numbers, hiring remained unusually slow (01:50).
  • Business Caution: Ongoing tariffs raised costs, pushing businesses to cut back on hiring rather than undergo layoffs.
  • Consumer Uncertainty: Sentiment is low. The “quits rate”—which shows worker confidence in finding new jobs—dropped sharply.
• Job Seeker Experience: Finding work is taking longer, and many are struggling.
• Federal Reserve Watch: Low but declining unemployment gives the Fed reason to “stay on hold in January”—neither raising nor lowering interest rates (02:52).

Memorable Quote
“A lot of businesses seem to be very cautious because of the tariff environment that has increased costs for businesses. And one way that businesses can try and save costs is by hiring fewer people.” – Harriet Tory (01:53)

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Venezuela’s Oil-for-Stability Gamble

Guest: Kejal Vias, WSJ Reporter (live from Bogotá, Colombia)

How the Plan Would Work

• U.S. to Manage Oil Sales: Venezuela to hand over up to 50 million barrels; the U.S. will control sales and escrow proceeds (04:00).
• Financial Control Measures: Proceeds would be transferred to Venezuela “in a way that does not enrich the corrupt regime… only used for the benefit of Venezuelan people” (04:14).
• Break from the Past: Aims to bypass Venezuela’s “black box” finances and prevent funds from feeding corruption.
• Relief for Backlogged Industry: Frees up 30–35 million barrels currently stuck in storage due to export constraints.
• Economic Diversification: Much of Venezuela’s current oil goes to China to repay debt, bringing in no cash. This new arrangement targets hard currency generation (04:54).

Notable Quote
“If the U.S. comes through with a promise to efficiently get money to the private sector... it could resolve many of the problems the country has faced.” – Kejal Vias (04:32)

Fragility and Risks

• Political Detente Is Key: The arrangement depends on a “very, very fragile political detente between the U.S. and Venezuela.” Any breach (like the U.S. not paying Venezuela) would be devastating (05:44).
• Humanitarian Stakes: Failure could mean renewed threats of famine, food and medicine shortages—a recurrence of past crises in the country.

Quote Emphasizing Fragility
“All of this really hinges on a very, very fragile political detente between the U.S. and Venezuela.” – Kejal Vias (05:44)

Deeper Economic Obstacles

• Human Capital Crisis: Widespread worker shortages.
• Shaky Infrastructure: The power grid regularly causes blackouts.
  • “There’s a shaky power grid, leaves much of the country in blackouts very, very routinely.” – Kejal Vias (06:34)
• Rule of Law Concerns: Foreign investors remain wary due to the absence of legal and institutional guarantees.
  • Opposition leaders stress the need to “restore democratic norms and order.”

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U.S. Oil Industry Response & Investment Outlook

• White House Meeting: President Trump hosted nearly two dozen oil executives (07:36).
• Oil Companies Cautious: Chevron, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, etc., are interested but demand “security guarantees.”
  • Exxon CEO Darren Woods: Venezuela “is currently uninvestable without major changes to the country's commercial frameworks and its legal system” (07:40).
• Possible Site Investigations: Exxon may send a technical team to assess Venezuelan assets within weeks.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If the U.S. takes oil and does not pay Venezuela, we’re talking a huge devastating effect on the local economy, which has already been decimated.”
  – Kejal Vias (05:53)

• “Exxon could have a technical team visit the country to assess the state of Venezuelan assets within the next couple of weeks.”
  – Alex Osola (After 07:40)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• U.S. Labor Report Analysis: 00:47 – 03:02
• Venezuela Oil-for-Cash Scheme Explained: 04:00 – 07:31
• U.S. Oil Industry Response and Investment Hurdles: 07:34 – 08:00

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Additional Stories (Brevity Notes)

• ICE agent shooting in Minneapolis discussed (post-08:00)
• Iran’s leader responds to ongoing protests; Trump signals possible intervention if crackdown occurs (11:02)
  • “If they do anything bad to these people, we’re going to hit them very hard.” — President Trump (11:14)
• Russia-Ukraine war update and EU trade deal with South America (Closing minutes)

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Summary Takeaways

• The Venezuela-U.S. oil deal is a bold experiment loaded with political, logistical, and humanitarian risk, hinging on financial transparency and political cooperation.
• The U.S. labor market ended 2025 in a sluggish but non-catastrophic state, with tariff uncertainty and weak business confidence dampening new hiring.
• Investment in Venezuela will require significant legal and political reforms before global oil majors will fully engage.
• Both macroeconomic and humanitarian stakes are at play—underscoring how geopolitics and economic policy are deeply intertwined in today’s headlines.

Transcript

[A]

Hey, it's Ryan Knudson, host of the Journal Podcast, our show about money, business and power.

[B]

If you're looking for more deeply reported.

[A]

Stories like we share every day, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.WSJ.com TheJournal all lowercase to subscribe now.

[B]

The US labor market finished off 2025 with another month of slow hiring. Plus, why the US selling Venezuela's oil could be a ticket to American countries turn around.

[C]

All of this really hinges on a very, very fragile political detente between the US And Venezuela. So ensuring that this money gets to them is going to be very vital for the stability of the Venezuelan economy.

[B]

And Iran's leader says he won't bow down to protesters or President Trump as demonstrations rock tehran. It's Friday, January 9th. I'm Alex Osolev for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. The last Labor Department jobs report for 2025 came out today showing more of the same for the US Economy. Hiring still weak, but businesses also aren't slashing jobs left and right. For December, American employers added 50,000 jobs, a tiny bit less than the month before. And the unemployment rate inched down to 4.4%. That's pretty low historically, which is good. To help us dissect the latest job numbers, I'm joined now by WSJ economics correspondent Harriet Tory. Harriet, in your story, you quote an economist who says we're at an inflection point. Walk us through that a little bit. What has been on employers minds this year that's been making them wary of hiring?

[A]

So the overall number of jobs added in 2025 was 584,000. And that is a dramatic slowdown from 2024, when the economy added 2 million jobs. So it's been a very unusual year in the sense that economic growth has actually been really strong. And yet we've seen this real slowdown in hiring. So what's going on? You know, a lot of businesses seem to be very cautious because of the tariff environment that has increased costs for businesses. And one way that businesses can try and save costs is by hiring fewer people. And we've seen consumer sentiment really plunge. We've seen the quits rate drop a lot, which is kind of a measure of how confident people feel about finding a new job. So 2026 to be an interesting year because we could see people start to feel more confident about the outlook for tariffs and inflation. But at the same time, there just seems to be this general hesitation and it's taking job seekers longer to find work, and a lot of people are struggling.

[B]

We know the Fed has been very concerned that the labor market could all of a sudden take a turn for the worse. What does this jobs report signal to policymakers?

[A]

So the good news for the Fed is that the unemployment rate take down, but at the same time, job growth is still pretty weak. The general consensus is that they're likely to stay on hold in January.

[B]

That was WSJ economics correspondent Harriet Tory. And speaking of today's jobs report, President Trump last night posted some stats from it online that were supposed to be confidential until this morning. The White House says it was an accident. The Coast Guard took control of an oil tanker early this morning, the fifth such seizure in the U.S. campaign to track down Venezuelan oil. And U.S. officials say they're looking at other ships that are trying to evade the US Blockade on sanctioned tankers traveling to and from Venezuela. The Trump administration has big plans for the country's oil. As you've heard from us this week. President Trump says Venezuela is turning over up to 50 million barrels to the US and the money from those sales would benefit both countries. Some economists say this plan could actually help Venezuela's economy. I'm joined now by Journal reporter Kejal Vias, who's in Bogota, Colombia. Kejal, break down how exactly this would work. What does it depend on for Venezuela to benefit from turning over its oil?

[C]

So there's still a lot of details on this plan that we do not know. The US has said that it will handle Venezuela's oil sales, hold proceeds of those sales in some account controlled by the US Government and will eventually transfer that money to Venezuela. But they say they will do so in a way that does not enrich the corrupt regime and does not enrich the fat cats, so to speak. They want this money to be only used for the benefit of Venezuelan people and, you know, stimulating imports. Now, as kind of extraordinary of an idea as that sounds, there are some economists who say that this could actually sort out some kinks in the Venezuelan system over the years. Most importantly, on the corruption aspect, Venezuela's public finances have been an absolute black box in recent years. And so if the US Comes through with a promise to efficiently get money to the private sector, to importers, it could resolve many of the problems that the country has faced. At the same time, it also alleviates a huge backlog in Venezuela's oil industry. 30, 35 million barrels of oil that are just stuck in Venezuelan storage facilities that can't go out. There's also one other important potential benefit. This effectively implies a restart of commercial ties between Venezuela and the US Current oil shipments, a significant portion of them go to China and do not generate any cash at all because a lot of it goes to pay back debts from years ago that the government took on from Beijing.

[B]

So it sounds like a pretty big opportunity here for Venezuela to re enter the global economy. What could stop this plan from happening?

[C]

All of this really hinges on a very, very fragile political detente between the US And Venezuela. If the US Takes oil and does not pay Venezuela, we're talk a huge devastating effect on the local economy, which has already been decimated. There's already many economists who have warned of famine, food shortages, medicine shortages, things that have actually happened in recent years in Venezuela during its very turbulent economic downward spiral. And so ensuring that this money gets to them is going to be very vital for the stability of the Venezuelan economy.

[B]

So let's assume that the US does do what it says it's going to do and does give that money the proceeds from the oil sales to Venezuela. What are some other challenges to restoring Venezuela's decimated economy?

[C]

They have huge human capital shortages, you know, worker shortages, there's a shaky power grid, leaves much of the country in blackouts very, very routinely. These things are going to have to be fixed, not just for, you know, the well being of average folks, but, you know, also to get the oil industry up and running again, which the US Is really counting on for this entire plan to work. And there's a direct link between the economic well being of the country and its political situation. Many investors simply do not perceive any semblance of rule of law. And so for them to put money into the country, they need institutions, they need guarantees that the government is going to uphold its end of the bargain. We see many people from the opposition in Venezuela really emphasizing that point, that all these plans from the Trump administration sound nice and getting the economy back on its feet is very vital, but that there also must be some sense of urgency in restoring democratic norms and order in the country.

[B]

That was Journal reporter Cajel Vias. Thanks, Cajel.

[C]

Thank you.

[B]

And in Washington today, Trump met at the White House with some of those people. He wants to invest in Venezuela. Executives from nearly two dozen oil companies. He was met with a lukewarm response. Executives from Chevron, which already operates in Venezuela, as well as Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and other companies signaled that they were willing to examine new opportunities, but they need security guarantees. Exxon CEO Darren woods said Venezuela is currently uninvestable without major changes to the country's commercial frameworks and its legal system. But Exxon could have a technical team visit the country to assess the state of Venezuelan assets within the next couple of weeks. In markets, the three major US indexes each rose by less than 1%, with the Dow and the S and P hitting their latest records. Pharma company Merck is in talks to acquire Revolution Medicines in a deal that could value the cancer drug biotech company at $30 billion. That's according to people familiar with the matter. A deal could come later this month. And Facebook parent Meta is backing new nuclear power projects and becoming a big customer of some exist plants to fuel its AI data centers. Financial details weren't disclosed. Coming up, what we know about the woman killed in Minneapolis and the ICE agent who shot her. Plus, Iran's leader strikes a defiant tone in the face of protests. That's after the break. Hey, this is Alex from what's News. Thanks so much for being a listener of the show. If you're looking for more insights and tools to understand the latest headlines, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall street journal. Visit subscribe.WSJ.com whatsnews to subscribe now. In Minneapolis, local officials are calling on the FBI to include state law enforcement in an investigation into the shooting of 37 year old Renee Nicole Goode by an ICE agent earlier this week. Minnesota officials say they're also launching their own investigation. The ICE agent is a 43 year old man named Jonathan Ross. He's a firearms instructor who is part of an elite unit within ICE that handles high risk arrests. The Department of Homeland Security says he has more than 10 years of experience in his job. More details are also emerging about Goode. She was a mother of three and a writer of poetry. She and her wife started a home repair company in 2024. In a statement provided to Minnesota Public Radio, Goode's wife says the couple stopped at the I Enforcement operation on Wednesday to support their neighbors. The shooting has put state and city officials at odds with the Trump administration, which has said that Minnesota law enforcement has no jurisdiction in the probe and defended the ICE agent. In international news, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said today that he has no plans to give up power and blame the unrest in Tehran on people he said are, quote, vandals trying to please the United States. Protests have swept the country as anger over inflation and a tumbling currency have turned to calls for regime change. In an interview aired on Fox News last night, President Trump said the US Would intervene if Iran's government cracks down on demonstrations with deadly force.

[C]

These people are totally unarmed people and they love their country. They want something to happen. Look at their country. They've gone. They've gone back 150 years. But I've told them that if they do anything bad to these people, we're going to hit them very hard.

[B]

Russia launched a powerful and rarely used hypersonic missile against Ukraine that hit near the Polish border and damaged infrastructure. No casualties were reported. Ukraine has been in negotiations with the US Over a peace plan, while Russia has hardened its position on ending the war. And the European Union has approved a trade deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay in an effort to reduce the EU's economic reliance on the US and China. Some European countries like France, oppose the deal and the EU Parliament still needs to approve it. And that's what's news for this week. Tomorrow you can look out for our weekly markets wrap up, what's News in Markets? Then on Sunday, we'll be discussing President Trump's domestic agenda for 2026. That's in what's New Sunday. And we'll be back with our regular show on Monday morning. Today's show is produced by Pierre Bienname with supervising producer Tali Arbel. Michael Lavall wrote our theme music. Jessica Fenton is our technical manager. Aisha El Moslim is our development producer. Chris Inslee is our deputy editor. And Falana Patterson is the Wall Street Journal's head of news audio. I'm Alex Osola. Thanks for listening, Sam.