WSJ What’s News: Investors Hold Their Breath as Trump Tariffs Loom The Wall Street Journal | Release Date: April 2, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of WSJ What’s News, The Wall Street Journal delves into the imminent announcement of President Donald Trump’s long-awaited tariff measures, examines the outcomes of a pivotal Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, explores potential developments in the TikTok saga, and touches upon significant geopolitical and economic shifts impacting global markets. Host Luke Vargas guides listeners through these multifaceted stories, providing expert insights and exclusive reports.

Trump’s Imminent Tariff Announcement and Market Implications

Anticipation of New Tariffs

The episode opens with the anticipation surrounding President Trump’s scheduled announcement of new US tariffs at a White House press conference set for the end of market trading hours. These tariffs are expected to be reciprocal, impacting major trading partners and potentially reshaping the global trade landscape.

Expert Insights with Maya Bhandari

Maya Bhandari, Chief Investment Officer for Multi Asset EMEA at Neuberger Berman, provides a comprehensive analysis of the possible content and repercussions of the tariff announcement.

• Potential Tariff Measures: Bhandari suggests that the tariffs may include non-tariff measures targeting currency undervaluation and Value-Added Tax (VAT). She notes, “This is likely to include some non-tariff measures, capturing things like currency undervaluation… and VAT, an area of particular focus here in Europe” (02:05).

• Tariff Rates and Negotiations: She anticipates initial tariff rates could be as high as 20% for major trading partners but expects negotiations to possibly result in lower final rates. “We wouldn’t rule out a high starting point… but a final number is likely to be lower” (02:05).

• Scope and Impact: The tariffs are projected to affect approximately 15 countries, representing about 90% of US imports. Bhandari emphasizes the potential for significant disruption in a highly integrated global economy, highlighting uncertainties around international responses. “These are likely to be targeted… they together account for about 90% of U.S. imports” (03:20).

Market Reactions

The discussion shifts to market implications, with a focus on small-cap stocks on the Russell 2000 index, which have been underperforming amidst recent uncertainties.

• Stock Performance: Bhandari observes that US tech stocks have faced a notable decline—“down 14%, 15% this year, about three times the broader index” (05:29).

• Investment Strategy: Neuberger Berman has adopted a neutral stance on equity markets, favoring non-Mag 7 stocks within the S&P 500, which have performed relatively well. Small caps remain vulnerable without clear triggers for recovery. “One of the consequences… has been a really significant shift in European fiscal policy” (05:29).

Supreme Court Race in Wisconsin: A Political Bellwether

Judicial Election Outcome

Voters in Wisconsin have elected liberal Judge Susan Crawford to a seat on the state Supreme Court, resulting in a 4-3 liberal majority. This outcome is interpreted as a potential voter backlash against President Trump and a setback for Elon Musk, who financially supported Crawford’s conservative opponent.

• Candidate’s Reflections: Crawford reflects on her victory with humility and determination: “As a little girl growing up in Chippewa Falls, I never could have imagined that I'd be taking on the richest man in the world for justice in Wisconsin. And we won” (07:15).

Political Implications

The election serves as an indicator of shifting political sentiments, suggesting possible resistance to Trump’s policies and influence. The outcome also impacts Musk’s political endeavors, given his significant financial involvement in the race.

TikTok Takeover Deal Under Scrutiny

Potential Sale and Regulatory Challenges

The podcast explores the ongoing efforts to secure a takeover deal for TikTok as the U.S. faces a deadline to either sell the platform or cease its operations. Cloud computing giant Oracle, along with other investors like Blackstone, are in talks to partner with existing US investors to acquire TikTok’s US operations.

• Deal Structure and Challenges: Rafael Huang, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, highlights technical and regulatory hurdles, including control over content recommendation algorithms and approval from Beijing. “If the proposed deal allows Biden's to keep its control over the algorithm, then that would leave some room for negotiation” (11:35).

• Geopolitical Tensions: Any new tariff plans announced by President Trump could complicate negotiations, as Beijing views additional tariffs as a barrier to compromise. “Additional tariff highs on China could again limit the rooms for compromise, in Beijing's view” (12:19).

Potential Outcomes

While a deal remains possible, the complexities surrounding algorithm control and international relations pose significant risks to its timely completion. Delays or a complete collapse of the negotiations remain on the table.

Additional Key Stories

Migration Policies and International Agreements

The Trump administration is actively seeking agreements with several countries to accept migrants deported from the U.S. This strategy mirrors the February deal with Panama, involving detention and processing for repatriation. Potential new partners include Libya, Rwanda, Benin, Eswatini, Moldova, Mongolia, and Kosovo, contingent upon financial arrangements.

Pentagon’s Middle East Strategy

In response to ongoing conflicts, the Pentagon is expanding its military presence in the Middle East. US forces are intensifying airstrikes against Houthi militants in Yemen and exerting pressure on Iran to dismantle its nuclear program. President Trump has threatened severe retaliation should Iran fail to comply with these demands, although officials clarify that these deployments are not immediate precursors to an attack but part of a broader campaign.

House Elections and Democratic Challenges

Republicans Jimmy Petronas and Randy Fine secured victories in special House elections in Florida, enhancing the GOP’s majority in the House to 220-213. Concurrently, New Jersey Democrat Cory Booker delivered the longest speech in Senate history, spanning over 25 hours, in protest of presidential actions. Booker acknowledged the Democratic Party’s struggles, stating, “We have contributed to where we are… Democrats have to own up for a lot” (07:15).

Visa’s Competitive Move with Apple

Visa is reportedly offering Apple approximately $100 million to manage the tech giant’s co-branded credit card, following Goldman Sachs’ exit from consumer lending. Apple is poised to select a new network, pitting Visa against competitors like Mastercard and American Express. This move echoes a similar strategy Visa employed with Costco a decade ago, aiming to secure a prominent partnership in the expanding fintech landscape.

Conclusion

WSJ What’s News provides a thorough examination of the critical developments influencing today's economic and political environment. From the anticipation of Trump’s new tariffs and their potential market disruptions to significant judicial elections and high-stakes corporate negotiations, the episode offers listeners a nuanced understanding of factors shaping global and domestic landscapes. As the situation continues to evolve, the insights shared by industry experts like Maya Bhandari underscore the importance of staying informed and adaptable in a rapidly changing world.

Notable Quotes:

• Maya Bhandari: “This is likely to include some non-tariff measures, capturing things like currency undervaluation… and VAT, an area of particular focus here in Europe” (02:05).
• Maya Bhandari: “These are likely to be targeted… they together account for about 90% of U.S. imports” (03:20).
• Maya Bhandari: “Every risk has attached to it a price” (05:29).
• Susan Crawford: “As a little girl growing up in Chippewa Falls, I never could have imagined that I'd be taking on the richest man in the world for justice in Wisconsin. And we won” (07:15).
• Cory Booker: “Democrats have to own up for a lot… we also have a lot of responsibility for meeting this moment” (07:15).

Produced by Kate Bullivant and Daniel Bach, with supervising producer Sandra Kilhoff. Special thanks to Reuters for additional sound contributions.