Iran and the U.S. Remain Far Apart Despite Cease-Fire Deal

Summary

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WSJ What’s News – PM Edition

Episode: Iran and the U.S. Remain Far Apart Despite Cease-Fire Deal
Date: April 8, 2026
Host: Imani Moiz (for The Wall Street Journal)

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Episode Overview

This episode examines the fragile state of the new ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, with tensions lingering around the Strait of Hormuz and conflicting international interests. The episode’s core themes are global diplomacy, economic ripple effects, and recent headline developments in energy, markets, and technology.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. and Iran’s Fragile Ceasefire

[00:34 – 04:08]

• Ceasefire Details & Lingering Tensions

  • Despite a publicized ceasefire agreement, the U.S. and Iran remain distrustful and have unresolved issues, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear material, control of shipping lanes, and regional influence.
  • The U.S. is actively involved, with high-level envoys slated for negotiations in Islamabad, including the Vice President, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner.

• Strait of Hormuz as a Bargaining Chip

  • Iran continues to leverage its control of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil passageway, as a piece in the geopolitical chess match.

  “We don't know what Iran plans to do. And Iran has shown that it is able to hold the strait hostage and use it as a bargaining chip.”
  — Shelby Holliday, [00:40 & 02:46]

• Regional Complications

  • Iranian participation in upcoming negotiations is contingent on a Lebanon ceasefire, but Israel, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, insists it will continue its anti-Hezbollah operations regardless.

  “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel just came out and said the ceasefire has nothing to do with Lebanon. We will continue to go after Hezbollah forcefully.”
  — Shelby Holliday, [02:28]

• Strait of Hormuz: Unresolved Questions

  • White House claims the strait is reopening are met with skepticism. The possibility of Iran charging tolls for passage looms.

  “A big question lingering over the Strait is whether Iran will be able to charge some sort of toll... If Iran is able to say, hey, you know, if you want to come through the Strait of Hormuz, you need to pay us $1 million. That's something Iran would love to do. That is something the US Likely will not accept.”
  — Shelby Holliday, [03:16]

• Energy Infrastructure Damage

  • Energy facilities in the region sustained significant damage and will require years to rebuild, which could have lasting market impacts.

  “There is a lot of damage that was done in these five weeks, and it will take a long time to rebuild.”
  — Shelby Holliday, [03:48]

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2. Economic Uncertainty & Job Forecasting Challenges

[04:11 – 06:54]

• Federal Reserve Concerns

  • The Fed’s March meeting minutes reflect rising anxiety about sluggish progress toward its 2% inflation goal. The Middle East conflict has escalated risks.

• Economists Struggle with Jobs Data

  • Wall Street analysts have repeatedly missed the mark on jobs numbers, due to shifting economic conditions (immigration crackdowns, tariffs, war) and changes in government data collection methods.

  “The survey that the government uses to figure out how many jobs are being created is not quite working as well as it used to because fewer companies are responding to it.”
  — Matt Grossman, [04:53]

  • Misses in monthly employment estimates have grown from an average of 30,000–40,000 last year to over 100,000 this year.

• Why Forecast Accuracy Matters

  • Real-time economic data sways markets and influences Fed policy responses.

• Inflation Predictions More Stable

  • Inflation estimates have been steadier, but the war in Iran has lifted oil prices—possibly impacting broader price trends.

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3. Market Response to Ceasefire

[07:39 – 10:10]

• Stock Market Rally & Oil Price Plunge

  • The Dow surged over 1,000 points (+2.8%), and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gained over 2.5%. Oil prices fell 16% to $94/barrel as optimism rose over potential stability in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Winners: Airlines & Cruises

  • Fuel-intensive industries saw some of the biggest gains.

• Investor Sentiment: “Taco Trade”

  • The phrase “taco trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out) reemerged, referencing a previous pattern where markets rebound when expectations of sharp U.S. action are not met.

  “We've heard the word taco thrown around a lot today on our phone calls with investors. The phrase taco...means Trump Always Chickens Out.”
  — Hannah Aaron Lang, [08:46]

• Not Out of the Woods Yet

  • Despite gains, year-to-date numbers are still negative, and the durability of the truce remains in question.

  “We need to make sure that this rally has legs before we end up in positive territory for the year so far.”
  — Hannah Aaron Lang, [09:45]

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4. Other Business Headlines

[10:16 – 11:36]

• Delta Airlines: Higher Costs, Higher Prices

  • Delta reported a $289 million quarterly loss due to fuel costs. Its strategy: raise ticket and bag fees, and scale back flights.

  “The higher end consumer, the premium consumer, is candidly immune or becoming more immune to the headlines and not delaying their investment in the experienced economy…”
  — Ed Bastian, Delta CEO (quoted by Hannah Aaron Lang), [10:37]

  • Despite losses, Delta stock rose nearly 4%.

• Meta’s AI Push

  • Meta unveiled its new AI model, “Muse,” reportedly outperforming Google’s Gemini in certain tests. Meta’s stock jumped 6.5%.

• Personalized Weight Loss Breakthrough

  • A 23andMe study found certain gene variants lead to additional weight loss on new drugs, pushing the move toward more personalized medicine. The company may leverage this to emerge from bankruptcy.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Iran’s Leverage:

  “Iran has shown that it is able to hold the strait hostage and use it as a bargaining chip.”
  — Shelby Holliday, [00:40, 02:46]

• On Israel’s Position:

  “The ceasefire has nothing to do with Lebanon. We will continue to go after Hezbollah forcefully.”
  — PM Benjamin Netanyahu (paraphrased by Shelby Holliday), [02:28]

• On “Taco Trade” and Market Psychology:

  “If you were one of the investors betting that this whole thing would kind of blow over and stocks would eventually rebound, I mean, you kind of vindicated today, right?”
  — Hannah Aaron Lang, [08:46]

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• Ceasefire Details & Strait of Hormuz: [00:34 – 03:46]
• Energy Infrastructure Outlook: [03:46 – 04:08]
• Economic Indicators, Fed, Job Data: [04:11 – 06:54]
• Market Reaction & “Taco Trade”: [07:39 – 10:10]
• Delta Airlines Losses: [10:16 – 10:54]
• Meta’s AI Announcement & 23andMe Study: [10:54 – 11:36]

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Summary prepared for those seeking a clear, concise, and insightful overview of this episode’s news and analysis.

Transcript

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[Shelby Holliday]

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[Imani Moiz]

Despite a ceasefire, the US And Iran aren't on the same page and Iran is keeping a tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz.

[Shelby Holliday]

We don't know what Iran plans to do and Iran has shown that it is able to hold the strait hostage and use it as a bargaining chip.

[Imani Moiz]

Plus, news of the ceasefire sends US Stock markets soaring and oil prices plunging. And the key to losing more weight on GLP1s might be in your DNA. It's Wednesday, April 8th. I'm Imani Moiz for the Wall Street Journal, filling in for Al Alex Osola. This is the PM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories that move the world. Today, The US And Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, but it's clear that the two sides remain far apart on many issues. Since the deal was announced, there's been conflicting reports about the status of the Strait of Hormuz and continued strikes in other parts of the Middle East. WSJ national security reporter Shelby Holliday is here to walk us through the latest. So where does the ceasefire stand now and what's the next step?

[Shelby Holliday]

Well, today's been really interesting because from the US Side, it's been a huge victory lap. We've heard from Press Secretary Caroline Levitt, we've heard from the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, and what they're saying is that what we set out to do has been accomplished and now we're trying to hammer out a ceasefire. There are still some very important questions lingering, namely what Iran will do with its nuclear material, whether ships will be able to freely navigate the Strait of Hormuz, who will lead Iran. So next step here is that the White House is dispatching the Vice President, Special envoy Steve Witkoff, and President Trump's son in law Jared Kushner to Islamabad in Pakistan for a round of negotiations. And I think in the next few days we might have a little more clarity on where things stand.

[Imani Moiz]

And Iran saying that participating in this weekend's talks hinges on a ceasefire in Lebanon. But Israel is continuing to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon. So what happens next yeah, that's a

[Shelby Holliday]

key sticking point, actually. So Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel just came out and said the ceasefire has nothing to do with Lebanon. We will continue to go after Hezbollah forcefully. Hezbollah is a proxy group that Iran supports, and we don't know how Iran will react to that.

[Imani Moiz]

And then there's the Strait of Hormuz. How soon could it return to normal traffic?

[Shelby Holliday]

We don't know what Iran plans to do. And Iran has shown that it is able to hold the strait hostage and use it as a bargaining chip. One thing that was interesting in the White House press conference today was that Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said what Iran is doing and saying publicly does not match what they are doing and saying privately.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

We have seen an uptick of traffic

[Shelby Holliday]

in the strait today.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

And I will reiterate the President's expectation and demand that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened immediately, quickly and safely.

[Shelby Holliday]

The White House is said it's reopening. I think we're going to need to look at a lot of shipping data to verify that and see if that's actually true. But a big question lingering over the Strait is whether Iran will be able to charge some sort of toll. And that really changes the dynamic in the Middle east and in oil markets. If Iran is able to say, hey, you know, if you want to come through the Strait of Hormuz, you need to pay us $1 million. That's something Iran would love to do. That is something the US Likely will not accept. So we'll see what happens with the Strait of Hormuz. It's still very much an open question.

[Imani Moiz]

And what about the energy facilities in the region?

[Shelby Holliday]

Energy facilities got hit really hard in this war, and they'll need to be rebuilt. And in some cases, it will take years to rebuild what was destroyed. So that will have an effect on energy markets in the future. There is a lot of damage that was done in these five weeks, and it will take a long time to rebuild.

[Imani Moiz]

That was WSJ national security reporter Shelby Holiday. Thanks, Shelby.

[Shelby Holliday]

Thank you.

[Imani Moiz]

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting show officials are getting more concerned about slow progress toward lowering inflation to its 2% goal. And the war in the Middle east is elevating the risks. A majority of officials still continue to pencil in at least one interest rate cut this year. Wall street analysts seem to be getting worse at forecasting one of the most important economic indicators. They undershot job gains by 75,000 in January, predicted an increase in February when job numbers fell sharply, and last month they struck out again, missing the mark by more than 100,000. WSJ economics reporter Matt Grossman joins us now to explain why economists say forecasting jobs numbers has never been harder. So, Matt, why is it getting more difficult to forecast jobs?

[Matt Grossman]

There are a few things happening at once. The economy is changing quite a bit. That's both from the big immigration crackdown from the Trump administration, the uncertainty because of tariffs, and more recently, the war in Iran. On top of that, the survey that the government uses to figure out how many jobs are being created is not quite working as well as it used to because fewer companies are responding to it. And the government also changed its formula earlier this and economists are still struggling to figure out how that's going to affect the numbers. Last year, they did a pretty good job on the average month. They missed maybe by about 30 or 40,000 jobs in a typical month, which is pretty decent. This year, the average miss has been over 100,000.

[Imani Moiz]

Why do the accuracy of these estimates matter to investors?

[Matt Grossman]

It matters a lot if you're a certain kind of investor who is making big bets on how the market's going to move on a given day. If there's a really positive economic report that could move the stock and bond prices quite a bit because it gives a lot of updated information very quickly about how the economy's doing and also importantly how the Federal Reserve is likely to respond next, that makes a lot of sense.

[Imani Moiz]

Is there something similar going on with other data releases like inflation, for example?

[Matt Grossman]

So far, the inflation forecasts haven't been nearly as difficult, and that could be because inflation just hasn't changed much over the past year or two. We've kind of been floating around this range where consumer prices over the past 12 months have been going up by 2.5% to 3%. Of course, the war in Iran has lifted oil prices quite a bit. We'll see how much that has played into other price increases as well. And we'll see on Friday how well Wall street has done at predicting exactly how big that increase is going to be.

[Imani Moiz]

That was WSJ economics reporter Matt Grossman. Thanks, Matt.

[Matt Grossman]

Thank you.

[Imani Moiz]

Coming up, a big market rally after the ceasefire news, why flights are getting more expensive and Meta's answer to AI rivals. That's after the break.

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[Imani Moiz]

Major US Stock indexes rallied today. The Dow shot up by more than 1,000 points at the open and stayed high, ending up 2.8%. Similarly, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 each rose more than 2.5%. Meanwhile, US oil prices tumbled 16% to about $94 a barrel. Agreements to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would make a long term energy shortage less likely. Fuel intensive companies like airlines and cruises were some of the biggest gainers of the day. But the truce might be more fragile than market reactions imply. WSJ markets reporter Hannah Aaron Lange polled her sources on what they're paying ATT now. So, Hannah, are markets still on edge as you said yesterday, or is this the start of a long term rebound?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Today we saw pretty significant rallies. Stocks are up a ton. Investors are feeling pretty relieved to hear the news of this ceasefire. I think in terms of what happens from here, that's the big question. And that depends on the negotiations between the United States and Iran, and it depends on the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

[Imani Moiz]

Some people are calling what happened today the taco trade. Can you tell us what that means? And does this market rally qual?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Yeah, I would definitely say it qualifies. We've heard the word taco thrown around a lot today on our phone calls with investors. The phrase taco, it kind of dates back to the Liberation Day tariffs last year that also sent stocks tumbling in April of 2025. And it's this acronym that means Trump Always Chickens out. And that same dynamic is kind of what we're seeing today. If you were one of the investors betting that this whole thing would kind of blow over and stocks would eventually rebound, I mean, you kind of vindicated today, right? We're seeing a pretty sharp move upward. I should mention this isn't kind of as big of a quote, unquote, taco moment as we have seen in the past. Today's taco trade didn't pack as much of a punch as it did a year ago when we saw even more massive gains in the major U.S. stock indexes after, you know, Trump paused those tariffs.

[Imani Moiz]

Where does today's rally put us for the year? Have we erased all of those losses that we saw when the war began?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

We haven't necessarily snapped back enough to eke out a positive gain this year to date. So all three major US stock indexes are still down slightly in 2026. We need to make sure that this rally has legs before we end up in positive territory for the year so far.

[Imani Moiz]

And I think for the rally to have legs, investors need to feel confident that the ceasefire has legs.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Yes, exactly.

[Imani Moiz]

That was WSJ markets reporter Hannah Aaron Lang. Thanks for joining us.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Thanks for having me.

[Imani Moiz]

Today, Delta airlines reported a $289 million loss for the first quarter, mostly due to the soaring cost of fuel. The airline's plan for offsetting higher fuel costs, charging customers more for tickets and luggage, and cutting back on overnight and midweek flights. Delta CEO Ed Bastian says the airline's customers are still booking flights and he expects them to keep at it.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

The higher end consumer, the premium consumer, is candidly immune or becoming more immune to the headlines and not delaying their investment in the experienced economy waiting to see what the next headline is going to be.

[Imani Moiz]

Delta shares rose nearly 4%. And in tech Meta platforms today announced its first major new artificial intelligence model in over a year called muse, Spark, Google, OpenAI and Anthropic have been releasing models at an accelerating pace. Meta has spent billions of dollars on hiring AI talent to catch up. The owner of Facebook and Instagram says the model outscored Google's Gemini on some internal tests. It was also competitive with other industry leaders. Metastock closed up about 6.5%. Turns out how many pounds you can drop using weight loss drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound may depend on your DNA. A new study from 23andMe found that a specific gene variant can lead to about three extra pounds of weight loss. While the median weight loss in the study for people on the drugs was about 25 pounds, doctors say insight like these could eventually guide personalized treatment and potentially save people money. 23andMe filed for bankruptcy protection last year. Testing for predictive genes could be a way for the company to salvage its business. And that's Swiss news for this Wednesday afternoon. Additional sound courtesy of S and P Global Market Intelligence. Today's show was produced by Anthony Bansi and Alexis Green with supervising producer Talia Arbel. I'm Imani Moiz for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Hey, this is Telus Demos and I'm Miriam Gottfried. We're reporters at the Wall Street Journal and The hosts of WSJ's take on the Week. It's a weekly show that gives listeners a leg up in the world of markets and investing from the Fed's moves

[Imani Moiz]

to market bubbles, we dive into the big key players and business news ahead. If you're looking for more news and tools that you can use to help navigate the markets, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall street journal.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Visit subscribe.WSJ.com Take on the Week to subscribe now.