WSJ What’s News – "Is Cuba Next? Inside Washington’s Push for Regime Change"

Date: February 1, 2026
Host: Luke Vargas
Guests: Jose de Cordoba (Mexico City), Vera Bergengrun (Washington, D.C.)

Episode Overview

This episode of WSJ What’s News Sunday delves into the intensifying focus of the Trump administration on bringing about regime change in Cuba. Following the recent U.S.-engineered ouster of Venezuela’s leader, Washington believes Cuba's worsening economic crisis could make the island vulnerable to U.S. pressure. Host Luke Vargas is joined by WSJ reporters Jose de Cordoba and Vera Bergengrun to explore the situation on the ground in Cuba, the U.S. strategy, historical contrasts with Venezuela, and the many hurdles to effecting political change on the island.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Dire Economic Crisis in Cuba

[01:44–03:29]

• Jose de Cordoba sets the scene: Cuba is facing its "worst economic crisis probably since it became an independent republic in 1902."
  • 20-hour blackouts in provinces
  • Severe shortages of medicines, food, and basic goods
  • Access to food largely restricted to those receiving dollars from abroad
  • Outbreaks of mosquito-borne illnesses compounding hardship
• Critical dependency on foreign oil:
  • Cuba's daily needs: 100,000 barrels; pumps only 40,000 internally
  • Venezuela had helped cover the deficit with 35,000 barrels/day, but that support ceased after U.S.-backed regime change in Venezuela ("Since the US Captured Maduro, no Venezuelan oil has been getting to Cuba.")
  • Experts predict the island could "hit a wall" in 4–8 weeks based on dwindling fuel reserves.

2. Washington’s Calculations and Strategy

[03:29–05:07, 07:06–10:40]

• Vera Bergengrun explains U.S. thinking:
  • Economic vulnerability is directly feeding into "CIA and other U.S. intelligence assessments."
  • The U.S. aims to achieve regime change by year-end, believing the present crisis offers a unique opportunity: "Not only is the economy close to collapse, but the government itself has never been this fragile."
• Pressure on Cuba’s hard-currency sources:
  • U.S. targeting of Cuba's overseas medical missions, pressuring countries hiring Cuban doctors
• Drawing lessons from Venezuela:
  • U.S. officials "kind of riding high" on their perceived success in Venezuela, seeking to replicate aspects in Cuba.
  • But, as Bergengrun notes, "There is not yet a concrete plan for changing the government in Cuba."
  • The Cuban leadership presents a different challenge: deeply entrenched, isolated, loyalist; lacking the international connections and personal incentives present in Venezuelan elites.

3. Comparing Cuba and Venezuela: Why Regime Change is Harder in Cuba

[07:29–10:40]

• No organized opposition in Cuba, unlike Venezuela:
  • "People tend to forget that there's no other political organization allowed in Cuba aside from the Communist Party," says de Cordoba.
  • Cuba's two large-scale protests in the last 60+ years were quickly suppressed.
  • The regime is described as "masters at managing poverty and administering repression."
• Public response has been emigration, not rebellion:
  • "People for the most part…have chosen to emigrate rather than to try to form a political movement."
• Uncertain endgames:
  • "It's unclear, even if they were to identify an 'in' with the Cuban government, what actually they would be asking of this person," says Bergengrun.
  • Unlike Venezuela, Cuba's government is not run by people with "massive offshore accounts" or significant exposure to the outside world.

4. Potential Consequences and What to Watch For

[10:40–13:50]

• Political risks and humanitarian concerns:
  • Bergengrun highlights the stakes: "If you really just squeeze this government and this economy to a catastrophic breaking point, it's going to create a humanitarian catastrophe."
  • U.S. domestic politics may deter direct involvement in the aftermath, especially in a midterm year.
• Role of Cuba’s international friends:
  • De Cordoba is blunt: "I think there's very little to expect from Cuba's friends, Russia and China." Russia is preoccupied in Ukraine, China offers little and demands commercial terms. Even Mexico's small oil support is being pressured by Washington.
• Cuban popular mood:
  • De Cordoba: "I think Cuba's people are enormously fatigued. I don't see them going out into the streets and trying to overthrow the government. No one wants to be Fidel Castro's last victim."
  • There is a sense that many are passively waiting for the U.S. to solve the problem, leading to "a lot of despair, a lot of uncertainty, a lot of fear."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Cuba’s state power:

  "Cuba has been a totalitarian Stalinist state for almost as long as the Soviet Union was… There is no organized opposition because it's not allowed by law. And there's barely the shadow of a civil society at work."
  — Jose de Cordoba (07:29)

• On the fragile status quo:

  "They're masters at managing poverty and administrating repression."
  — Jose de Cordoba (08:36)

• On the U.S. approach:

  "Trump told people in his first term that he wanted to do something that President Kennedy in the 60s wasn't able to do… It is the holy grail. It is this thing that they all really want to do."
  — Vera Bergengrun (11:02)

• On humanitarian consequences:

  "If you really just squeeze this government and this economy to a catastrophic breaking point, it's going to create a humanitarian catastrophe."
  — Vera Bergengrun (11:28)

• On Cuban resilience and fatigue:

  "I think Cuba's people are enormously fatigued. I don't see them going out into the streets and trying to overthrow the government. No one wants to be Fidel Castro's last victim."
  — Jose de Cordoba (13:11)

Important Timestamps

• 01:44 – Scene-setting: the economic and social crisis in Cuba
• 02:28 – The fuel crisis following Venezuela’s fall
• 03:40 – Washington’s intelligence perspective and policy levers
• 05:07 – Political parallels and contrasts with Venezuela
• 07:29 – Why regime change is uniquely difficult in Cuba
• 10:40 – What to watch: next steps and potential consequences
• 12:21 – Limited support from Russia, China, Mexico
• 13:11 – Fatigue and resignation among Cuba’s people

Summary Takeaways

• Cuba’s economic crisis has reached historic proportions, and with the loss of Venezuelan oil, further hardship is likely within weeks.
• The U.S. sees a rare window for regime change but lacks a concrete, realistic plan compared to Venezuela. Cuba's political system, lack of opposition, and repressive strength make it a much harder target.
• Washington is wary of being drawn into a humanitarian disaster if the island collapses, and Cuba’s remaining allies are unlikely to offer substantial lifelines.
• The Cuban people, weary and without avenues for legal protest or opposition, are unlikely to lead major change themselves, with most simply hoping for outside intervention.
• The situation is fluid—but also laced with uncertainty, risk, and deep historical entrenchment.

For listeners:
This episode offers a grounded, nuanced look at the complexities of U.S.-Cuban relations, the limits of American power, and the resilience of the Cuban regime. It’s essential listening for understanding why, despite intensified U.S. efforts, Cuba may not yet be “next.”