Israel-Iran: Can War Be Won With Air Power Alone?

Summary

WSJ What’s News: Israel-Iran Conflict and Broader Global Developments

Episode: Israel-Iran: Can War Be Won With Air Power Alone?
Release Date: June 20, 2025

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Introduction to the Israel-Iran Conflict

The latest episode of WSJ What’s News, hosted by Alex Osola, delves into the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, focusing on the unique reliance on air power in this confrontation.

Alex Osola opens the discussion at [00:03], highlighting the failure of European talks with Iran to resolve the impasse and Israel’s indication that the war may be prolonged. Osola sets the stage by questioning the potential outcomes of a conflict predominantly waged through air power:

"Can war be won with air power alone?" ([00:03])

In-Depth Analysis with Marcus Walker

Joining the conversation is Marcus Walker, WSJ South Europe bureau chief, who provides nuanced insights into the strategic dynamics at play.

At [02:48], Walker explains Israel's strategic dependence on air strikes:

"This is virtually unique in that two states are going at each other with virtually only air power." ([02:48])

He elaborates on the geographical constraints, noting that the presence of approximately four countries between Iran and Israel limits the scope of military engagement to air assets and long-range weaponry. Walker outlines the goals of both nations:

• Iran's Objectives:

  • Preserve the Regime: Prevent any serious threats that could destabilize the Iranian government.
  • Nuclear Sovereignty: Maintain and advance its nuclear enrichment capabilities, resisting diplomatic negotiations until Israeli attacks cease.

• Israel's Objectives:

  • Nuclear Neutralization: Prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons through physical destruction of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, coercive diplomatic measures, or, in the most ambitious scenario, regime change in Tehran.

Walker further discusses potential outcomes of the air-centric conflict at [04:41]:

"It could end with one of those three successful scenarios for Israel... or possibly an inconclusive outcome where significant damage is inflicted but Iran continues its nuclear pursuits." ([04:47])

Global Implications and Reactions

The conflict’s ramifications extend beyond the immediate military engagement, affecting global markets and political landscapes.

Oil Prices and Market Reactions: Following President Trump's decision to withhold immediate action against Tehran, Alex Osola reports a cooling in oil prices:

"Brent crude... fell about 2%, mostly reversing yesterday's sharp gains." ([05:23])

This shift reflects market sensitivities to geopolitical tensions. Concurrently, major US stock indexes experienced declines, with the Dow Jones up marginally by 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw drops of approximately 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively.

Supreme Court Ruling on Palestinian Lawsuits: In a landmark decision, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled unanimously that American citizens can sue Palestinian authorities for terrorist acts:

"A 2019 law meant to facilitate lawsuits against the Palestinian Authority and Palestine Liberation Organization... didn't violate the Constitution." ([05:23])

This ruling marks a significant victory for affected families seeking accountability for violence in the Jerusalem area.

Release of Mahmoud Khalil: A federal judge in New Jersey ordered the release of Mahmoud Khalil, a former Columbia student detained by immigration officials for over three months. The Department of Justice and Homeland Security have yet to comment on the decision.

Economic Resilience and Challenges in Casual Dining

Shifting focus to the domestic economy, Heather Haddon, a Wall Street Journal reporter, discusses the challenges and strategies of American casual dining chains recovering from a wave of bankruptcies last year.

At [07:37], Haddon explains:

"Traffic for some of these chains had just been falling for a while, and we saw a lot of them actually file for bankruptcy." ([07:37])

She highlights that chains like Chili's have managed to thrive by investing in enhanced service quality and aggressive advertising, distinguishing themselves from struggling competitors. In contrast, chains such as Red Lobster are undergoing restructuring to eliminate debt and improve operational efficiency, including diversifying their supply chains to mitigate the impact of tariffs.

Technological Advancements: Oracle’s Defense Ecosystem

In the technology sector, Alex Osola reports on Oracle’s new initiative aimed at facilitating smaller tech vendors' engagement with the Department of Defense (DoD).

The Oracle Defense Ecosystem program is designed to streamline the process for smaller companies to sell technology to the DoD, traditionally dominated by major contractors. This strategic move not only aids smaller businesses but also seeks to entrench Oracle’s cloud platform within the Pentagon’s technology infrastructure.

Weather Alert: Severe Heat Wave Across the U.S.

Concluding the episode, the National Weather Service issues a warning about an impending heat wave expected to impact the Plains, Midwest, Central states, and the East Coast. Cities like Denver, St. Louis, Detroit, New York, and Philadelphia are forecasted to experience temperatures exceeding 90°F, coupled with high humidity levels. Public health advisories recommend minimizing outdoor activities and ensuring adequate hydration to combat heat-related risks.

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Looking Ahead

Listeners are informed about upcoming segments:

• Markets Wrap-Up: A comprehensive analysis of the week’s market movements.
• What’s News Sunday: An in-depth exploration of Iran’s strategies in the ongoing conflict with Israel and the socio-political pressures within Tehran.

Production Credits: The episode was produced by Anthony Banci, with Michael Kosmides overseeing production. Theme music was composed by Michael Lavall, and Aisha Al Muslim served as the development producer. Scott Salloway and Chris Inslee contributed as deputy editors, while Falana Patterson led the Wall Street Journal's news audio team.

Closing Remark: “Stay cool out there and thanks for listening.” — Alex Osola

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the June 20, 2025 episode of WSJ What’s News, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the multifaceted topics covered, from international conflicts and economic challenges to technological innovations and environmental alerts.

Transcript

[Alex Osola]

European talks with Iran fail to break an impasse as Israel signals that the war could be a long one. Plus, as the conflict plays out mostly in the air, what does it mean for how it might end?

[Marcus Walker]

There are some precedents, but this is virtually unique in that two states are going at each other with virtually only.

[Alex Osola]

Air power and how US Casual restaurant chains are planning to stage a comeback. It's Friday, June 20th. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall. This is the PM edition of what's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. We begin tonight's show with the latest on the war between Iran and Israel. Talks between Iranian and top European officials in Geneva failed to break an impasse and to move Iran any closer to the concessions it would need to make to halt the fighting over its nuclear program. Arab and European officials briefed on the talks said that Iran continued to insist on the right to enrich uranium and adding that Iran won't re enter nuclear negotiations with the US Until Israel's attacks stop. Israel has shown no signs of being ready to stop a campaign. It began a week ago with surprise airstrikes and intelligence operations that targeted Iranian military leaders, nuclear sites and air defenses. And Israel's top general said today that the country is ready for a prolonged campaign to degrade Iran's nuclear program. In remarks to reporters this afternoon, President Trump said that Europe is not going to be able to help resolve the conflict between Iran and Israel and that Iran wants to talk to the U.S. he added that he isn't inclined to press Israel to stop airstrikes so negotiations with Iran can continue. The US Is racing to reinforce Israel's defenses. It's sending more warships capable of shooting down ballistic missiles to the region as Iranian attacks drain Israel's stocks of interceptors. An additional U.S. navy destroyer arrived in the eastern Mediterranean today, joining three others in the area and two in the Red Sea. A defense official said that the ships are operating close enough to Israel to be able to intercept missiles fired by Iran. Iran and Israel are conducting the war in a unique way, as both sides have exchanged blows via air power alone. Since last week. Israeli warplanes have hit targets across Iran, testing the limits of what air power alone can achieve in a conflict. Israeli policymakers appear to be counting on the ability of air power to win the day without ground operations, but conventional wisdom among military thinkers has long said that missiles and bombs are seldom enough to achieve victory on their own. For more, I'm joined now by WSJ South Europe bureau chief Marcus Walker Marcus, why is Israel relying on airstrikes?

[Marcus Walker]

Distance and geography and the fact that there are about four countries in between Iran and Israel, and that really constrains what they can use. It means that this war is an exchange of Israeli air power, principally planes, but also drones, and some use of small special forces or intelligence teams on the ground to direct air forces. And from the Iranian side, it limits them to long range missiles, ballistic missiles, and also long range drones. So this is virtually unique in that two states are going at each other with virtually only air power at this.

[Alex Osola]

Stage in the game. Two weeks in, what are the goals for both Israel and Iran?

[Marcus Walker]

Iran's goals are pretty simple. They want to prevent any serious threat to the regime and they want to preserve their freedom to have a nuclear weapons program and to keep on doing uranium enrichment, including under any diplomatic settlement that might emerge. On Israel's case, it's a little bit more ambiguous. The Israelis, above all, want to make sure that Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. But they could do that in three main ways. One is if they physically destroy enough of Iran's nuclear program and uranium enrichment and other intermediate steps that you need to turn uranium into a bomb that Iran would be unable to make a bomb, or it would take Iran many, many years to repair the physical damage. The second way is if they coerce the regime in Tehran into signing a deal that renounces uranium enrichment and a nuclear weapons program. And the third, which is certainly the most ambitious and perhaps the less realist, but Israeli policymakers have talked about bringing about regime change in Iran, and of course their great hope is that the theocratic regime would collapse and take its nuclear ambitions with it. It's not quite clear what the Israelis think they can achieve. It almost looks as if they're going to try a bit of everything and hope that one of those things happens.

[Alex Osola]

So given that this is an air war, at least so far, what does this mean for how this might end?

[Marcus Walker]

So it could end with one of those three successful scenarios for Israel coming about. But the fourth scenario is that you get an inconclusive outcome that Israel inflicts a lot of damage, but not enough to stop the Iranians from pursuing their nuclear ambitions, even if it delays them and sets them back and forces them to rebuild. So it would be physically indecisive politically. Also, perhaps Israel doesn't manage to force Iran to sign a deal that actually renounces uranium enrichment and the regime holds on.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ South Europe bureau chief Marcus Walker. Thanks, Marcus.

[Marcus Walker]

Thank you.

[Alex Osola]

Oil prices cooled after President Trump held off on taking action against Tehran. As we mentioned in this morning's show, the White House said late yesterday that Trump would make a decision on whether to strike Iran. Within two weeks, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell about 2%, mostly reversing yesterday's sharp gains. Meanwhile, major US indexes ended the day mostly lower. The dow rose about 0.1%, while the S&P 500 slipped roughly 0.2% and the Nasdaq dipped around half a percent. The U.S. supreme Court ruled today that American citizens injured during terrorist attacks and the survivors of those who were killed could bring lawsuits seeking monetary damages from Palestinian authorities in US courts. In a unanimous decision, the court said a 2019 law meant to facilitate lawsuits against the Palestinian Authority and Palestine Liberation Organization, two political entities representing the Palestinian people, didn't violate the Constitution. The ruling was a victory for a group of families who have sought to hold the entities liable for six shootings and bombings between 2002 and 2004 in the Jerusalem area. And a federal judge in New Jersey ordered the release of Mahmoud Khalil more than three months after the former Columbia student was first detained by immigration officials. The judge granted Khalil's request for release while his case proceeds. Neither the Department of Justice nor the Department of Homeland Security immediately responded to a request for comment. Coming up, how American sit down restaurant chains are planning to get diners back. That's after the break. Casual dining chains like Red Lobster and Cracker Barrel are fighting to get more Americans into their booths. Last year, US restaurant bankruptcies hit the highest level in decades, excluding 2020, when the COVID 19 pandemic upended the industry. According to records from Bankruptcy Data.com, the pace of bankruptcies has slowed this year, but the shakeout in casual dining continues. Heather Haddon, who covers restaurants for the Journal, joins me now with more. Heather, why are so many casual dining chains in trouble?

[Heather Haddon]

Last year was a really hard year for casual dining chains. Traffic for some of these chains had just been falling for a while, and we saw a lot of them actually file for bankruptcy. So some of these ones that maybe had a lot of debt on their books and who had had to raise their prices to respond to inflation and lost a lot of customers in the process. And even healthy chains have been closing unprofitable restaurants. Some of that is just broader issues with the industry. There's a lot of restaurants, there's a lot of choice for people these days. They have a lot of different, newer places they can go to. And so to fight in this climate, you've really had to prove your worth to customers again.

[Alex Osola]

Some casual dining chains like Chili's actually are doing pretty well in terms of traffic. What are they doing differently than some of these other places?

[Heather Haddon]

What Chili's really did was spend money, so invest in making their service better and making their atmosphere better. And then they really ramped up everyday deals and really put a lot of money in advertising them. So a combination of better service, better environment, good deals, some viral moments have really worked well from them, but not every chain can do that.

[Alex Osola]

So for some of the chains that are struggling a little bit more, what are they doing to try to bring more people in?

[Heather Haddon]

Red Lobster is one of the chains that filed for bankruptcy last year, which helped eliminate a lot of their debt. When they have new investment and management, and so they're trying to take a page from, say, a Chili's by investing in their infrastructure, just making their restaurants look better, operate better, and then trying to thread the needle between deals that will attract guests but also make money.

[Alex Osola]

How are these chains anticipating price increases from tariffs?

[Heather Haddon]

Some of them are worried about equipment. One asterisk to that actually is Red Lobster. They do import seafood, including their shrimp. So they have had to diversify their supply chain, look for new suppliers. And they said that they moved out of China. So that was a real area where they were exposed, which, you know, that's no small feat.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Heather Haddon. Thank you, Heather.

[Heather Haddon]

Thanks so much.

[Alex Osola]

Oracle is unveiling a program that it says will help vendors more easily sell technology to the Department of Defense, a process that has long been tricky for smaller businesses that lack the structural advantages that major defense contractors have. The program, called the Oracle Defense Ecosystem, is structured to help smaller companies break through those challenges. Reporter Bell Lin told our Tech News Briefing podcast what Oracle stands to gain from this. Oracle really does present this program as a win win for the Pentagon and for the companies that it's helping. But at the same time, like their executives told me, it's not a charity. And so they are really aiming to entrench their cloud platform within the DoD sort of technology ecosystem that the Oracle already has this major cloud contract along with a number of other cloud players like Amazon and Microsoft and Google with the Pentagon. And so it's sort of already within the ecosystem, but it wants to further entrench its cloud platform because it wants these smaller companies to build on its cloud platform and then sell to the Pentagon in return. For more from Bell, listen to today's episode of Tech News Briefing. And finally, for millions of Americans, this weekend is going to be a hot one. The National Weather Service says that starting today, a heat wave will hit the Plains region and will move across the Midwest and Central states to the East Coast. By next week, cities including Denver, St. Louis, Detroit, New York and Philadelphia will experience multiple days of temperatures exceeding 90 degrees Fahrenheit, exacerbated by high humidity in many of these areas. By Tuesday, a stretch of the country from eastern Iowa through Ohio, Pennsylvania and to parts of New York and Washington, D.C. will face extreme levels of heat related risk, a rare indication by the National Weather Service. Extreme heat and humidity create health risks and can cause conditions including heat stress and heat stroke. Forecasters said people should limit their activities outdoors and stay hydrated. And that's what's news for this week. Tomorrow you can look out for our weekly markets wrap up what's News in markets. Then on Sunday, we're looking at Iran's options in the war with Israel, the pressures from the Iranian public and what the future may hold for Tehran. That's in what's New Sunday. And we'll be back with our regular show on Monday morning. Today's show was produced by Anthony Banci with supervising producer Michael Kosmides. Michael Lavall wrote our theme music. Aisha Al Muslim is our development producer. Scott Salloway and Chris Inslee are our deputy editors. And Falana Patterson is the Wall Street Journal's head of news audio. I'm Alex Osola. Stay cool out there and thanks for listening.