It’s Jobs Friday, But Without the Data

Summary

---

WSJ What’s News – "It’s Jobs Friday, But Without the Data"

Date: October 3, 2025
Host: Kate Bullivant
Key Contributor: Justin Lehart, Daniel Bark

---

Episode Overview

This episode addresses the fallout from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, with particular focus on its disruption of the monthly jobs report—a critical data source for markets, policymakers, and analysts. The show also covers political maneuvering over health care, U.S. military action against drug cartels, international developments in Europe and the Middle East, and a headline-making Taylor Swift album release.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Government Shutdown and Political Fallout

[01:02–02:38]

• The government shutdown entered its third day, intensifying partisan blame between President Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
• Mike Johnson (01:24): "Call your senators, your Democrat senators, the 44 people who want to shut the government down. You should call them right now and tell them to get here and get to work and open the country up for the people."
• Hakeem Jeffries (01:34): "Let's find a bipartisan path forward and let’s address the Republican health care crisis."
• Inside the White House, there’s rising concern about political backlash from letting health care subsidies expire, impacting millions. There are internal discussions about extending enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care Act plans, but no decision from President Trump.

2. Economic Uncertainty Without Jobs Data

[02:38–06:17]

• The shutdown has delayed the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report and paused other crucial data releases (inflation, retail sales, trade data).

• Justin Lehart (02:38): "The BLS will not be reporting the September jobs report on Friday. Usually... they're trying to figure out, you know, what's going on with the labor market. And we're not going to get that."

• The timing worsens economic uncertainty, with a weakening job market, steady consumer spending, and stubborn inflation—a "moment where the job market appears to have really deteriorated... now really kind of flying with instruments."

• The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting may be affected if data remains unavailable.

• Immediate Impact:

  • Markets, economists, and the Fed must turn to alternative data (ADP payrolls, Revelio Labs, credit card spending, Price Stats inflation trackers).
  • Justin Lehart (04:29): "So ADP... have employment data that came out on Wednesday. It looked rather weak. There's a sort of a newcomer called Revelio Labs... It wasn't as bad as ADPs."
  • Most economists still prefer official government data, as private data is built atop government-sourced frameworks, including things like the inflation basket.
  • Lehart (06:07): "Without those baskets, you don't really know what's going on with inflation. Right. So they need that stuff."

3. U.S. Military Action and Latin American Cartels

[06:54–07:54]

• Senators demanded legal justification from the Pentagon for strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean. The Pentagon invoked President Trump’s designation of some Latin American cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations,” giving the military broad authority.
• In a confidential notice, Trump declared the U.S. in a "non-international armed conflict" with the cartels.

4. International Developments

[07:54–09:25]

• Gaza: Israel deported activists, including Greta Thunberg, after intercepting their aid vessel to Gaza, sparking global protests.
• President Trump on Gaza: Warned Hamas to accept his peace plan or face more Israeli military pressure, claiming to be close to a deal.
• Europe Drone Incursions:
  • Munich Airport briefly shut after drone sightings; NATO countries are reviewing air defense.
  • Putin’s Denial (08:54): Russian leader denies responsibility for drone incursions over several European countries, calling NATO’s claims “efforts to inflame tensions.”
  • Daniel Bark translates Putin (09:25): “This is also one of the ways to escalate the situation in general, to fulfill the Washington boss's orders and increase defense spending.”

5. Taylor Swift’s Album Drop

[09:41–10:08]

• Taylor Swift released her 12th studio album, "The Life of a Showgirl," at just 40 minutes—her shortest yet—which immediately set Spotify download records.

• The album was largely written during her ERAS tour, as previously revealed on her fiancé Travis Kelce’s podcast.

• Taylor Swift (via New Heights podcast, 10:08):

  • “It just comes from like the most infectiously joyful, wild, dramatic place I was in in my life. And so that effervescence has come through on this record. And like, as you said, bangers.”

---

Notable Quotes

• Mike Johnson (01:24):
  “Call your senators, your Democrat senators, the 44 people who want to shut the government down. You should call them right now and tell them to get here and get to work and open the country up for the people.”
• Justin Lehart (02:38):
  “...the BLS will not be reporting the September jobs report on Friday... we're not going to get that. And as long as the government shutdown persists, there's going to be a lot of other data that isn't going to be available.”
• Justin Lehart (04:29):
  “ADP... have employment data... There’s a sort of a newcomer called Revelio Labs that scrapes data from LinkedIn... When it comes to inflation, there are people who scrape websites for prices, primarily an outfit called Price Stats.”
• Putin, via Daniel Bark (09:25):
  “This is also one of the ways to escalate the situation in general, to fulfill the Washington boss's orders and increase defense spending.”
• Taylor Swift (10:08):
  “It just comes from like the most infectiously joyful, wild, dramatic place I was in in my life. And so that effervescence has come through on this record. And like, as you said, bangers.”

---

Segment Timestamps

• 00:18–01:02 — Top headlines and political concerns
• 01:02–02:38 — Government shutdown and political fallout
• 02:38–06:17 — Missing jobs data; market/analyst impact; alternative data
• 06:54–07:54 — U.S. military action against drug cartels in the Caribbean
• 07:54–09:25 — Gaza flotilla and deportations; European drone incidents; Putin's remarks
• 09:41–10:08 — Taylor Swift album detail and impact

---

Tone & Takeaways

The episode blends a matter-of-fact Wall Street Journal reporting style with sharp, real-time insights. The hosts and reporters maintain an urgent, analytical tone as they unpack how the lack of federal data upends economic understanding and market reactions, while not losing sight of the ongoing political maneuvering domestically and globally. The Taylor Swift item adds a splash of pop culture energy amid heavier themes.

---

For those who missed the episode:
America is flying "blind" on key economic trends due to a data vacuum from the government shutdown, which amplifies both market anxiety and political stakes. Policymakers and businesses alike are forced to rely on imperfect private or alternative data. Meanwhile, global tensions and pop culture phenomena shape the news cycle, keeping listeners attuned to both immediate risks and lighter moments.

Transcript

[Podcast Advertiser]

Exchanges on navigating macro uncertainty Exchanges on the forces shaping global markets. For the sharpest analysis on finance, business and the economy, count on exchanges. The Goldman Sachs podcast Listen now.

[Kate Bullivant]

The White House is increasingly worried about political backlash over health care cuts. Plus, the government shutdown means it's jobs Friday, but without the monthly employment data.

[Justin Lehart]

It sends people looking toward alternative data sources, which people are always looking at. But now it's really come front and center.

[Kate Bullivant]

And Putin scoffs at claims that Russia is behind drone incursions as new sightings cancel flights overnight. It's Friday, October 3rd. I'm Kate Bullivant for the Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM Edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving YOUR world today.

[Justin Lehart]

Foreign.

[Kate Bullivant]

It'S the third day of the government shutdown and on the surface, President Trump is showing confidence that he's winning the messaging war over Democrats. Both sides yesterday continued the finger pointing while signaling that they were keen to find a way out of the current impasse to end the shutdown. Here's House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

[Justin Lehart]

Call your senators, your Democrat senators, the 44 people who want to shut the government down. You should call them right now and tell them to get here and get to work and open the country up for the people.

[Kate Bullivant]

Let's find a bipartisan path forward and.

[Justin Lehart]

Let'S address the Republican health care crisis.

[Kate Bullivant]

However, despite the public bravado, Republicans are becoming increasingly concerned that their party will be blamed for allowing health care subsidies to expire, increasing costs for millions of Americans. Inside the White House, aides are discussing propos proposals to extend the enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care act health insurance plans. We understand that Trump hasn't yet decided whether he will endorse such a proposal. Republicans say they'll only hold negotiations with Democrats on the matter after the government is reopened. It comes as voters have expressed deepening frustration with Trump's handling of the economy in recent polls. And those concerns about the economy are likely to be compounded today as the government shutdown means we won't be getting the usual monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Journal economics reporter Justin lehart spoke to our Daniel Bark about the immediate impact this will have.

[Justin Lehart]

Yeah, so the BLS will not be reporting the September jobs report on Friday. Usually that's something that people get very anxious about. They're refreshing the page, they're digging into the numbers. They're trying to figure out, you know, what's going on with the labor market. And we're not going to get that. And as long as the government shutdown persists, there's going to be a lot of other data that isn't going to be available. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics produces inflation data. The Commerce Department has retail sales. It has trade data. So there's just all kinds of statistics on the economy and the health of the economy that we're not going to be seeing. And if you think about this, that would never be a good thing. It's maybe particularly not a good thing right now because we're at this moment where the job market appears to have really deteriorated. At the same time, spending seems pretty good and inflation is above where the Federal Reserve would like it to be. So all these sort of moving parts that make it very hard to interpret what's going on and now really kind of flying with instruments.

[Daniel Bark]

What is the immediate impact of that when people don't have access to this data? As you say, it comes at a crucial point where we've seen this weakening. So what is that mean for the data we're expecting and for the people that read that data?

[Justin Lehart]

I mean, the data will eventually come out. It'll be postponed. The Fed has a meeting this month. Some of the data might not be in hand. So what it does is it sends people looking toward alternative data sources, which people are always looking at. But now it's really come front and center.

[Daniel Bark]

As you say, this comes at a time when some have been questioning the reliability of the jobs data. Looking to other places. Might this accelerate that? And what are the standout data points that people may be Looking to?

[Justin Lehart]

So ADP, which is a large payroll processor, processes about 26 million people's paychecks. So they have employment data that came out on Wednesday. It looked rather weak. There's a sort of a newcomer called Revelio Labs that scrapes data from LinkedIn and other networking sites to also come up with jobs data. They came out with their number on Thursday. It wasn't as bad as ADPs. They actually suggested using their data plus ADPs to kind of triangulate what is actually happening. And you come up with a fairly weak number that way. When it comes to things like retail sales, people will look at credit card spending data or bank card spending data. When it comes to inflation, there are people who scrape websites for prices, primarily an outfit called Price Stats. So they'll be looking at that to try and get a read on inflation. So all of this stuff is out there. And for sure there have been problems and concerns with the government data. Most economists still want the government data. It includes things that aren't available in some of these private data sets. And in fact, a lot of these private data sets are built on the scaffolding of government data. Let's say you want to know what inflation is and you have all of the prices, but you need to know how much people spend on different things to come up with an idea of an inflation basket, a price basket. That's data that comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They do the surveys to create those baskets. Without those baskets, you don't really know what's going on with inflation. Right. So they need that stuff.

[Kate Bullivant]

That was Journal Economics reporter Justin lehart speaking to our Daniel Bark. Coming up, the rest of the day's news, including another drone incursion in Europe and what may be the album launch of the year. Those stories and more after the break.

[Justin Lehart]

Viking committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on an elegant Viking longship with thoughtful service, cultural enrichment and all inclusive fairs. Discover [e-mail].

[Kate Bullivant]

We'Re exclusively reporting that senators on both sides of the political aisle pressed the Pentagon's top lawyer to provide a better legal explanation for striking alleged drug boats in the Caribbean. That happened in a classified Senate Armed Services Committee briefing on Wednesday, where people with knowledge of the matter said Eric Matthews repeatedly referred to President Trump's designation of some Latin American drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. Matthews, the Pentagon general counsel, said that designation granted the Defense Department unilateral authority to use military force against them. In a confidential notice to Congress yesterday, which has been viewed by the Journal, Trump said that the US Is in a so called non international armed conflict with the cartels and that the US had determined their actions constitute an armed attack against the United States. Israel is deporting activists, including Greta Thunberg, after their aid vessel headed for Gaza was intercepted by the Israeli military. The move to intercept the flotilla has sparked backlash from the international community, with protests erupting across major cities including Paris, London and Istanbul. Here it's the Italians in the city of Brescia. President Trump said earlier this week he was on the verge of a deal to end the war in Gaza, warning Hamas to accept his peace plan or face even more military pressure from Israel. With the full support of Washington, Hamas has indicated it might support the effort. And in Germany, Munich Airport has reopened this morning after several drone sightings grounded flights overnight affecting nearly 3,000 passengers. It's the latest in a string of interruptions in European airspace that have spurred NATO members to retune defenses. A moderator at a forum of foreign policy experts yesterday asked Russian President Vladimir Putin why he was sending so many drones to places like France, Portugal and Denmark. Putin jester insisted that he won't do it anymore and cast the claims of Russian involvement in drone incursions as part of, quote, NATO efforts to inflame tensions.

[Daniel Bark]

This is also one of the ways to escalate the situation in general, to fulfill the Washington boss's orders and increase defense spending.

[Kate Bullivant]

And finally, Taylor Swift's 12th studio album has hit streaming platforms everywhere. After being released overnight, the Life of a Showgirl is her shortest album yet at just 40 minutes. And according to data from Spotify, the download traffic broke all records. It was back in August that Swift revealed on the New Heights podcast hosted by her fiance Travis Kelce and his brother Jason, that the album was written while on the ERAS tour.

[Podcast Advertiser]

It just comes from like the most infectiously joyful, wild, dramatic place I was in in my life. And so that effervescence has come through on this record. And like, as you said, bangers.

[Kate Bullivant]

Well, whether you're spending this morning listening to pop bangers or not, we hope your weekend gets off to a good start. And that's it for what's news for this Friday morning. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bark. Our supervising producer is Sandra Kilh Hoff. And I'm Kate Bullivant for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.

[Podcast Advertiser]

To all the financial advisors listening. Let's talk bonds for a minute. We see a lot of big firms throw a couple of flashy funds your way and call it a day. But not Vanguard. Vanguard bonds are institutional quality. We're talking top grade products across the board of over 80 bond funds actively managed by a 200 person global team. So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for [e-mail] audio. That's vanguard.com audio. All investing is subject to risk. Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor.