Megabill Set for Final Vote as GOP Holdouts Relent

Summary

WSJ What’s News – Episode: "Megabill Set for Final Vote as GOP Holdouts Relent"
Release Date: July 3, 2025
Host: Luke Vargas
Source: The Wall Street Journal

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Introduction

In this episode of WSJ What’s News, host Luke Vargas delves into the pivotal developments surrounding President Trump's mega bill as it approaches its final vote in the House of Representatives. The discussion encompasses the bill's implications on the national debt, public perception of the economy, the Pentagon’s assessment of Iran's nuclear program, and the integration of big tech in major sporting events like Wimbledon.

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President Trump's Mega Bill Nears Final House Vote

The central focus of the episode is the progress of President Trump's comprehensive tax and spending legislation. After intense negotiations and overnight discussions, the bill is set for a final House vote, following a procedural vote that passed at [01:36] 03:23 AM with a tally of 219 Ayes to 213 Nays.

House Speaker Mike Johnson highlighted the collaborative efforts behind the bill's advancement:

"Trump, Vice President Vance, attorneys and federal agencies were involved in conversations with holdouts on the bill."
– Luke Vargas, [01:47]

The bill is anticipated to be presented to President Trump by [01:47] possibly before his self-imposed July 4th deadline, aiming for swift legislative and executive approval.

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Impact on the National Debt

Greg Ip, the Journal's Chief Economics Commentator, provides a critical analysis of the bill's fiscal implications:

"Over the next 10 years, relative to current law, this bill would add about $4 trillion to the national debt, which is about a trillion dollars more than the House version of that bill."
– Greg Ip, [02:32]

Ip emphasizes that this increase exacerbates an already record-deficit scenario, drawing parallels to historical borrowing but warning of unprecedented long-term fiscal challenges:

"The debt to GDP ratio will rise to brand new records higher than it was in World War II... the annual borrowing is now approaching 7% of GDP."
– Greg Ip, [05:15]

He further discusses the erosion of institutional fiscal safeguards, noting the Senate bill's disregard for the 10-year deficit rule, which could lead to heightened concerns among fiscal conservatives.

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Public Perception of the Economy

A recent YouGov survey reveals a shift in voter sentiment, attributing greater responsibility for the economy to President Trump over former President Biden—a reversal from May findings.

Alex Frangos, Journal Finance Editor, elaborates on the partisan divide:

"People who voted for Kamala Harris think that Trump's doing a terrible job. People who voted for Donald Trump think that Trump's doing a great job. But the one thing they agree on is that it's Trump's economy."
– Alex Frangos, [07:16]

Frangos points out the potential influence of this perception on investment behaviors, particularly in light of forthcoming economic indicators like the June jobs report.

He highlights ongoing tensions between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration:

"Jerome Powell is under huge pressure from Trump... inflation still hasn't completely gone away, so we don't want to risk it."
– Alex Frangos, [07:34]

This dynamic underscores the uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy decisions and their impact on the economy.

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Pentagon's Assessment of Iran’s Nuclear Program

The episode covers the Pentagon's latest intelligence report, which asserts that recent U.S. strikes have set back Iran's nuclear ambitions by up to two years. This assessment stands in contrast to President Trump's more assertive claims of completely neutralizing Iran's nuclear capabilities and the United Nations Atomic Energy Agency's more cautious outlook.

Key points include:

• Tehran's suspension of cooperation with the IAEA, hindering verification of its nuclear activities.
• The U.S. State Department's condemnation of Iran's actions as "unacceptable."

The lack of immediate on-the-ground verification from the IAEA leaves room for uncertainty regarding the true extent of the strikes' impact.

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Big Tech's Integration into Major Sporting Events

The podcast transitions to the intersection of technology and sports, spotlighting Wimbledon’s adoption of advanced tech solutions.

Kevin Farah from IBM details the technological advancements:

"We have teams collecting the stats, which are the direction of serve, the speed of serve, the rally count... How the point is won?"
– Kevin Farah, [09:46]

These data points feed into live graphics for viewers and power an AI chatbot available on Wimbledon’s digital platforms:

"You can ask about the players, you can ask about the stats... and you can get a response back."
– Kevin Farah, [10:12]

Jonathan Attishek, IBM's SVP of Marketing, comments on the strategic importance of integrating live sports data with AI:

"It really enables us to bring to life a better articulation of our technology..."
– Jonathan Attishek, [11:03]

Joshua Robinson, Journal Sports Writer, observes the broader trend of big tech leveraging global sports as platforms to showcase their B2B offerings:

"They find an incredible opportunity to piggyback on the reach that say tennis or Formula One or soccer has..."
– Joshua Robinson, [11:37]

This trend highlights how major sporting events are becoming significant arenas for technological innovation and brand promotion.

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Conclusion

As Luke Vargas wraps up the episode, he underscores the multifaceted nature of today's news—from high-stakes legislative actions with long-term economic ramifications to the seamless integration of cutting-edge technology in the world of sports. The episode provides listeners with a comprehensive overview of critical developments shaping the economic and geopolitical landscape.

"That's it for what's news for this Thursday morning... Happy 4th of July and thanks as always for listening."
– Luke Vargas, [12:14]

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Produced by: Daniel Bach
Supervising Producer: Sandra Kilhoff
Assistance: Christina Rocca

Transcript

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[Luke Vargas]

One most trusted app based on August 2024 proprietary survey. Over 500,000 new listings every month based on average new for sale and rental listings. February 2024 through January 2025 President Trump's mega bill steams toward a final House vote as GOP holdouts relent. We'll look at how the law could affect the national debt. Plus the Pentagon puts its setback of Iran's nuclear program in the years and sports biggest events become showrooms for big tech.

[Joshua Robinson]

You know, not out here where fans are roasting in the heat, but you go into the tony boxes where they're sipping champagne. That's where deals are being done.

[Luke Vargas]

It's Thursday, July 3rd. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM Edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. The US House of Representatives is heading toward a final vote in the coming hours to pass President Trump's tax and spending bill. That is after party leaders worked through the night to change the minds of a handful of rank and file republic, allowing the bill to clear a procedural vote at 3:23am on this vote, the.

[Greg Ip]

A's are 219, the nays are 213. The resolution is adopted without objection.

[Viking]

The motion to reconsider is laid on the table.

[Luke Vargas]

House Speaker Mike Johnson said that Trump, Vice President Vance, attorneys and federal agencies were involved in conversations with holdouts on the bill. Though he offered no details about the discussions, Johnson predicted that a final vote would happen by about 8am Potentially teeing up the legislation to be signed by the president before his self imposed July 4th deadline. Before the overnight wrangling on Capitol Hill, I caught up with the Journal's chief economics commentator, Greg Ip to learn about the bill's effect on the U.S. deficit and what the process of negotiating it signals about Washington's approach to fiscal policy. Greg, the last estimate that we got from the Congressional Budget Office on this bill came in last week. Remind us what that estimate showed.

[Greg Ip]

Well, it suggests that over the next 10 years, relative to current law, this bill would add about $4 trillion to the national debt, which is about a trillion dollars more than the House version of that bill. Given that we're in a situation now where the deficits are already at a record, except in times of war and emergency, that continues, in fact continues to get a bit worse under this bill over the next decade, it still represents a significant deterioration in fiscal performance for the United States.

[Luke Vargas]

Greg, we have heard various things about the deficit implications of this legislation, including on yesterday's show from a GOP representative in the House. This was Chip Roy of Texas who was vocalizing this concern that he had about how the Senate had gone about scoring the impacts of this bill and notably that it abandoned this congressional accounting standard. I'm curious what you made of that.

[Greg Ip]

Well, what we're talking about here is the ongoing erosion of the institutional guardrails that Congresses have put in place over the years to try and prevent legislation from getting a little too reckless. One of those rules, for example, is that you may not add deficits after the 10 year window. This version of the Senate bill actually discards that guardrail. It simply asserts we're not going to play by that rule. We're going to basically assume that even though the law says tax cuts would expire this year, we're going to assume they didn't and therefore what we're doing doesn't add to the deficit. Now how bad is that? Well, I suppose since they're still going to get 51 votes in the Senate, it's still like Congress doing its job. But if you're one of those people that thought that having those rules, setting a very high bar for blowing up the debt, if you were one of those people who liked having those things, well, you would look at this and say, well, isn't that a bad thing?

[Luke Vargas]

Looking beyond Congress, Greg, some of the people who seemingly don't like higher debt are bond investors who you write can basically punish the government when things are getting out of hand.

[Greg Ip]

It's definitely the case that I think that bond yields today are higher than they otherwise would be given the fiscal trajectory of the country, which is about to be set in stone by this new congressional bill. But the difference is too small to really change the calculus of anybody in office. I mean, if interest rates had behaved like they do sometimes in an emerging market and gone through the roof and capsized the economy, yeah, the government would change. But this is the United States. We have the world's reserve currency. We have the world's most important safe security, the treasury bond. The rest of the world is not going to panic and dump every dollar asset just because they don't like the particular direction of our fiscal policy or what Moody's happens to say.

[Luke Vargas]

All right, so relative strength kind of the measure you're citing there, perhaps suggesting the floor is not about to fall out here. And yet borrowing now is going to be more expensive in the future than some people maybe have reckoned with.

[Greg Ip]

We're definitely getting into uncharted territory. I mean, under realistic projections of deficits and debt, the debt to GDP ratio will rise to brand new records higher than it was in World War II when we were borrowing heavily to finance a war, a very big war. And the annual borrowing is now approaching 7% of GDP. And we have literally never sustained that level of borrowing on a sustained basis ever before in the history of this country. And the United States being as big as it is represents so much of the world's borrowing that I don't think anybody has a clue how this pressure is likely to manifest itself on global financial markets. I think it would be foolish to express conviction one way or the other that it won't have any effect at all or that it will have terrible effects. But I think it's definitely getting into territory where we ought to be worried.

[Luke Vargas]

That was the Journal's chief economics commentator, Greg ip. Coming up, We've got the rest of the day's news, including a new poll on American views about the economy, a fresh intelligence assessment on damage to Iran's nuclear program, and more after the break.

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[Luke Vargas]

Well, with President Trump's tax and spending bill now in the home stretch, one thing is becoming more clear for who is responsible for the state of the economy. According to YouGov survey data gathered for the Journal late last month, voters across party lines now say that President Trump is more responsible for the state of the economy than former President Biden, a reversal of findings from May, though his journal finance editor Alex Frangos told us that hardly means they agree about where things are headed now.

[Alex Frangos]

The partisan divide is still completely there. So people who voted for Kamala Harris think that Trump's doing a terrible job. People who voted for Donald Trump think that Trump's doing a great job. But the one thing they agree on is that it's Trump's economy. And the question is whether they have an impact on how people behave, how people invest, how people spend.

[Luke Vargas]

And in that light, Alex says that investors will be looking closely at today's June jobs report.

[Alex Frangos]

There's starting to be these little fissures in the job market and it's, you know, not 100% clear why that is. The other thing that's hanging out there with his jobs number is what does the Fed do? The Fed, you know, Jerome Powell is under huge pressure from Trump. Trump's been posting about him again overnight saying he should resign and he wants them to cut rates. And Powell's been like, well, the economy is pretty good and inflation still hasn't completely gone away, so we don't want to risk it. So this jobs number obviously will feed into that whole argument and dispute.

[Luke Vargas]

We will get a look at those key figures at 8:30am Eastern, ahead of the start of a trading session that will end early at 1pm Due to the Independence Day holiday. The Pentagon says that US strikes on Iran set back the country's nuclear ambitions by up to two years. That assessment by military intelligence officials falls somewhere between President Trump's claim that the attack obliterated Iran's nuclear program and the more cautious view by the UN's atomic agency that Iran could resume enriching uranium in a matter of months. An on the ground report by the International Atomic Energy Agency clearing things up could be a ways off. Tehran yesterday suspended cooperation with the iaea, leaving its inspectors blind to any renewed nuclear work and unable to verify the whereabouts of Iran's stockpile of already enriched uranium, a decision that the US State Department called unacceptable. And finally, the Wimbledon tennis tournament got underway in London this week with a notable absence. Line judges. After nearly 150 years of calling balls in or out of bounds, their roles have now been automated. One of many tech inroads visible at the tournament. A few levels Beneath Center Court. IBM's Kevin Farah showed me where staff are aggregating live data coming in from more than a dozen matches.

[Kevin Farah]

So we have teams collecting the stats, which are the direction of serve, the speed of of serve, the rally count. How is the serve returned? Is it a forehand? Is it a backhand? How the point is won? Is it a forced error, unforced error?

[Luke Vargas]

After being checked for discrepancies and fed through a hybrid cloud, that data informs graphics for TV viewers. And as of this year, an AI chatbot on the Wimbledon app and website.

[Kevin Farah]

You can ask about the players, you can ask about the stats a bit at the bottom here you've got a free form query box where you can type in a question in natural language and you can get a response back.

[Luke Vargas]

That chatbot helped me to pronounce the tricky name of a Swiss player and it summarized a three hour match a few courts over where I was hearing a lot of applause, though it couldn't predict who was beating pre tournament odds or who was more likely to perform well in the heat. Still, it's an early preview of a future in which fans can get particular information regardless of what announcers happen to be discussing. Businesses could also be inspired to build chatbots that feed off of live information instead of just static data sets. IBM's SVP of Marketing Jonathan Attishek, told me that integrating with live sports, which continue to dominate ratings, is a no brainer.

[Jonathan Attishek]

It really enables us to bring to life a better articulation of our technology because let's face it, when you go talk about AI or cloud computing or those sorts of things, they can be complex topics that not everybody understands how they work and how it could apply to something they're doing.

[Luke Vargas]

Journal sports writer Joshua Robinson agreed and told me marquee sporting events are increasingly showrooms for the latest B2B offerings from the likes of Oracle, Amazon Web Services or Microsoft.

[Joshua Robinson]

The thing you see about big tech around global sports is they find an incredible opportunity to piggyback on the reach that say tennis or Formula one or soccer has to not just get out in front and raise awareness about their brands, but show what's possible. I haven't bought any of those cloud services recently, but at these sporting events all you have to do is look around and everywhere you see advertising boards. It means somewhere there's a private box with those kinds of executives populating them and who might be in the market for those types of services.

[Luke Vargas]

And that's it for what's news for this Thursday morning. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bach. Our supervising producer was Sandra Kilhoff and we had help today from Christina Rocca. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Otherwise, have a Great weekend. Happy 4th of July and thanks as always for listening.

[Jonathan Attishek]

Sam.