Megabill’s Fate Uncertain as Senators Continue Marathon Voting

Summary

WSJ What’s News: Episode Summary - "Megabill’s Fate Uncertain as Senators Continue Marathon Voting"

Release Date: June 30, 2025

The Wall Street Journal's "What’s News" podcast episode titled "Megabill’s Fate Uncertain as Senators Continue Marathon Voting" delves into pivotal developments in U.S. politics, business, and finance. Hosted by Alex Osila, the episode provides listeners with an in-depth analysis of the ongoing legislative battles, significant legal actions, and market movements shaping the current landscape.

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1. Legislative Push: Senate Republicans' Marathon Session

Key Focus: Senate Republicans' efforts to pass President Trump's ambitious tax and spending bill by the self-imposed July 4th deadline.

Discussion:

• Alex Osila introduces the central theme, highlighting the Republicans' determination to advance the "big beautiful bill" through a grueling marathon session in the Senate.

• Interview with Richard Rubin, WSJ Tax Policy Reporter (Timestamp [00:49] - [04:20]):

  • Voting Dynamics: Rubin explains that while Republicans are keen to pass the bill, they face challenges in securing the necessary votes. "Republicans really do want to pass a bill. They're ready to go, but they don't have the votes yet," he notes ([00:40]).

  • Procedural Moves: A critical procedural vote passed along party lines (53-47) declared that Republicans' extensions of expiring tax cuts do not impact the federal budget, facilitating efforts to make these tax cuts permanent through a simple majority ([01:30]).

  • Internal Factions and Amendments: Rubin outlines the internal GOP debates, with senators like Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins proposing amendments related to renewable energy credits and tax rates for high earners. Simultaneously, figures like Rick Scott and Cynthia Lummis push to freeze and repeal Medicaid expansions.

  • Likelihood of Passing: Despite enthusiasm, Rubin remains cautious. He states, "It is certainly not a given that this will happen," emphasizing uncertainties surrounding the bill's passage by the July 4th deadline ([03:42]).

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2. Stock Market Performance: Record Highs in a Volatile Quarter

Overview: U.S. stock markets concluded a turbulent quarter on a high note, with major indices reaching all-time highs.

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Both indices rose approximately 0.5%, closing at unprecedented levels.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Increased by about 0.6%, contributing to the positive market sentiment.

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3. Legal Battles: Trump Administration vs. Los Angeles

Issue: The Trump administration has initiated a lawsuit against Los Angeles over its sanctuary city policies.

Details:

• Allegations: The administration contends that a city ordinance limiting cooperation with federal immigration authorities violates the Constitution's supremacy clause, thereby hindering enforcement actions.

• Defendants: Los Angeles, Democratic Mayor Karen Bass, and the City Council.

• Response: Mayor Bass's office has not yet responded to requests for comment.

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4. Harvard Under Scrutiny: Civil Rights Violations Allegation

Focus: The Trump administration's investigation into Harvard University for alleged violations of civil rights concerning Jewish and Israeli students.

Interview with Doug Belkin, WSJ Higher Education Reporter (Timestamp [05:54] - [08:09]):

• Findings of the Investigation: Belkin details that the administration's report cites instances of antisemitism at Harvard between 2023 and 2025, including harassment, social ostracization, and physical aggression against Jewish students ([05:54]).

• Harvard's Response: The university acknowledges the issues and asserts its commitment to combating antisemitism and fostering an environment conducive to open debate without infringing on civil rights ([06:21]).

• Implications: Belkin discusses the potential consequences, including the freezing of $2.3 billion in federal research funding and ongoing court battles. He suggests that the administration's actions may be a strategic move to leverage negotiations outside the courtroom ([06:47]).

• Administration's Goals: The Trump administration aims to promote patriotism and a unified American identity within universities, criticizing current trends toward identity-based grievances ([07:31]).

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5. DEI Practices at Cornell University

Development: The America First Policy Institute has filed a civil rights complaint against Cornell University, alleging discriminatory Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) practices in hiring and scholarships.

Responses:

• Cornell University's Statement: The institution maintains that its hiring policies are merit-based and explicitly prohibit discrimination.

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6. Dividend Stocks: Investors' Increasing Affection

Topic: The enduring appeal of dividend-paying stocks and their impact on investment returns.

Interview with Spencer Jacob, WSJ Investing Columnist (Timestamp [08:45] - [11:51]):

• Historical Perspective: Jacob references a 1960s study suggesting that dividends should be irrelevant to wealth maximization since they merely redistribute existing value ([09:43]).

• Modern Insights: Contrarily, recent studies indicate that dividend-paying stocks outperform non-dividend payers. Jacob explains that these companies often represent higher quality and value, as their commitment to dividends signals financial stability and prudent cash management ([10:34]).

• Investor Behavior: Contrary to the expectation that dividend investors spend their payouts, Jacob found that most reinvest dividends, further enhancing returns. This behavior underscores the quality of dividend-paying companies ([11:29]).

• Surprising Findings: Jacob expresses surprise that dividend preferences do not necessarily correlate with immediate income needs, as investors tend to reinvest rather than spend the dividends ([11:29]).

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7. Business News: Regulatory Challenges for Tech and Aerospace Giants

Apple in the European Union:

• Announcement: Apple has postponed the release of certain new features in the EU due to compliance challenges with the Digital Markets Act, aimed at reducing the dominance of large tech firms and assisting smaller developers.

• Apple's Stance: The company criticizes the law for complicating the rollout of new software features in Europe.

Boeing's Acquisition of Spirit Aerosystems:

• Regulatory Scrutiny: The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority has initiated a formal antitrust investigation into Boeing's deal to acquire Spirit Aerosystems.

• Potential Hurdles: The investigation may delay Boeing's efforts to integrate Spirit's operations and stabilize its supply chain, with a decision expected by August 28.

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Conclusion

The episode of "What’s News" provides a comprehensive overview of significant legislative efforts, legal confrontations between federal authorities and major cities and universities, nuanced insights into investor behavior regarding dividends, and ongoing regulatory challenges faced by leading corporations. Through expert interviews and detailed reporting, the podcast equips listeners with a nuanced understanding of the intersecting forces shaping today's economic and political environment.

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Produced by Pierre Bienname with Supervising Producer Michael Cosmides and additional support by Coleman Standifer.

Transcript

[Alex Osola]

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[Richard Rubin]

Republicans really do want to pass a bill. They're ready to go, but they don't have the votes yet. And there's a lot of complex policy in here and a lot of competing political interests.

[Alex Osola]

Plus, the Trump administration finds that Harvard violated students civil rights. And the surprising reason why investing in stocks that pay dividends really does pay off. It's Monday, June 30th. I'm Alex Osila for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. Let's start with President Trump's big beautiful bill. Senate Republicans have charged forward with a marathon session to pass the bill as the party races to get the legislation to the president's desk by their self imposed July 4th deadline. One of their first moves, a 53 to 47 party line procedural vote that declared that Republicans extensions of expiring tax cuts have no effect on the federal budget. This is a crucial part of their strategy to extend tax cuts permanently with a simple majority vote, though Democrats and budget experts call it a gimmick. The voting on amendments and procedural motions is expected to last many hours as the various GOP factions seek to push the bill in their favored direction on charges political issues like changes to Medicaid, food assistance programs and tax cuts. The Journal's tax policy reporter Richard Rubin joins us now from the U.S. capitol. So Richard, where does voting stand? Does the bill seem likely to pass at this juncture?

[Richard Rubin]

Voting stands in continuous operation but still spinning their wheels. And does it seem likely to pass? It feels inevitable. In a sense, Republicans really do want to get something done, but they don't necessarily have all the votes locked down. To have 50 votes out of the 53 Republicans to pass this thing just.

[Alex Osola]

Yet, are they taking votes on some of these big political issues like Medicaid, food assistance? Have those big ticket items come up?

[Richard Rubin]

So some of these issues have come up in from Democratic votes and generally Republicans see a couple defections here and there. But they're generally blocking those Democratic votes. What we're really waiting for, which hasn't been scheduled yet, are big Republican votes where you've got Republican senators who want changes to the bill. So Lisa Murkowski wanting slower phase outs of wind and solar tax credits. You've got Susan Collins wanting more money for rural hospitals and a higher tax rate on people making over 25, $50 million. You've got coming from the other direction, Rick Scott, Ron Johnson, Mike Lee and Cynthia Lummis wanting to basically freeze and then repeal the expansion of Medicaid that was part of Obamacare. So we're waiting for those big Republican amendments and for Republican leaders to pull together all of the provisions they might want to change and make those changes.

[Alex Osola]

Seems like the future is maybe a little bit hazy right now, but given where things are at, the bill still has to go back to the House. Does it seem likely at this point that Republicans are going to make their July 4 deadline?

[Richard Rubin]

The emoji of the month has been the shrugging guy, and I will just stick with that right now. Look, Republicans really do want to pass a bill. The important thing to Remember at the July 4th deadline is that it is not real in any sense. It is what the president wants. And deadlines are clarifying and motivating. But the real consequences of failure to pass something start showing up in August when the debt limit increase is necessary and really hit at the end of December when the tax cuts expire. So this is important. They want to get this done. No one wants to spend July here like we spent June here. But it is certainly not a given that this will happen.

[Alex Osola]

That was Wall Street Journal reporter Richard Rubin. Thanks as always, Richard.

[Richard Rubin]

Sure, thank.

[Alex Osola]

U.S. stocks capped a turbulent quarter by notching new records. Major U.S. indexes rose. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at all time highs today, each rising roughly half a percent. The dow increased about 0.6%. The Trump administration has sued Los Angeles over its sanctuary city policies, ramping up tensions between the city and the federal government's immigration enforcement efforts. In a lawsuit filed today in the US District Court for the Central District of California, the administration said a city ordinance severely limiting cooperation with federal immigration officials violates the Constitution's supremacy clause and has made it challenging to carry out enforcement actions there. It names the city, Democratic Mayor Karen Bass and the City Council among the defendants. Bass's office didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. We're exclusively reporting that the Trump administration has informed Harvard University that its investigation found that it had violated federal civil rights law over the treatment of Jewish and Israeli students. It's the latest in the battle between the White House and the wealthiest US University and could put Harvard's federal funding further at risk. Doug Belkin covers higher education for the Journal and joins me now. Doug, what did this investigation from the Trump administration find exactly?

[Doug Belkin]

They cited a lot of the reports that Harvard has already created looking at antisemitism on campus, and essentially said Harvard failed to address the antisemitism that was on campus, especially between 2023 and 2025. There were issues of Jewish kids being harassed, prevented from going to school, spit on. Also in the report, there were issues of being shunned and forced out of social circles.

[Alex Osola]

And what has Harvard said about this?

[Doug Belkin]

Harvard says that they have acknowledged that there were problems on campus and that they are very forcefully dealing with them, pushing back against anti Semitism and trying to create a culture on campus that is better for open debate and open discourse and doesn't violate anybody's civil rights.

[Alex Osola]

This is the latest in a pretty fraught relationship between the Trump administration and Harvard. Specifically, what happens next?

[Doug Belkin]

Well, that's the million dollar question. It's probably actually the $2.3 billion question because that's how much money the Trump administration has frozen in research funding from the university. Harvard and the Trump administration are in court. And then there's also negotiations between the White House and Harvard University. This could just be a turn of the screw to generate more negotiating leverage from the White House. What this is, in a sense, saying is that you have violated civil rights, and we can stop federal funding on the basis of that. So this will probably pull Harvard's attention and say it's in your best interest to negotiate and give us what we want outside of court.

[Alex Osola]

The administration has targeted a number of elite universities. What is its end goal?

[Doug Belkin]

What the Trump administration says is that kids enter university and they come out not proud to be Americans, very tied to particular identities, filled with grievances from one identity to the next. They're not patriotic. They don't believe that the American ideal is a good one. So what the administration would say is, we are hoping that universities become more patriotic, more American, more helpful to America, and they're going in the wrong direction, and we are trying to change that.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Doug Belkin. Thank you, Doug.

[Doug Belkin]

Thanks for the invitation.

[Alex Osola]

Separately, the America First Policy Institute, a conservative think tank with ties to the Trump administration, filed a civil rights complaint against Cornell University. The complaint alleges that the university has used discriminatory DEI practices in hiring and scholarships. A Cornell University spokesperson said the school's hiring policies focus on merit and prohibit discrimination. Coming up, the reason people love stocks that pay dividends isn't really about income More after the break.

[Doug Belkin]

I think you're on mute.

[Alex Osola]

Workday starting to sound the same. I think you're on mute. Find something that sounds better for your career on LinkedIn. With LinkedIn job collections, you can browse curated collections by relevant industries and benefits like Flexpto or hybrid workplaces so you can find the right job for you. Get [e-mail] jobs finding where you fit. LinkedIn knows how to finance Professors have long tisk tisked about investors love for dividends. One study in the 1960s determined that since maximizing wealth is the point, investors shouldn't care about the payouts as they're just part of their total return. But as WSJ Investing columnist Spencer Jacob writes, more recent studies have found that caring about dividends can really pay dividends. So Spencer, what exactly are investors doing?

[Spencer Jacob]

As you said, the original study is that a company pays out a certain amount of cash. It reduces its value by that amount, and it puts that money in your pocket. You have no change in wealth because now you own a less valuable stock. Later they tried to explain people's preference for dividends by saying, well, mentally people put income and wealth into two different buckets. Income is like your salary and also dividends and interest. And people are much more relaxed about spending that. So they like getting dividends. But now we realize that dividend payers actually are a bit different. And this study was done of people at Vanguard who own income funds or plain vanilla funds that don't have that on the label. And they saw what they did with that money and they asked them why they did what they did with their money.

[Alex Osola]

What makes these dividend stocks pay off.

[Spencer Jacob]

So people do tend to have a preference for them. And when they ask people, a lot of them gave the right answer, which is that they feel like they're higher quality companies, they're more stable. It wasn't the preference for the income because if you look at what people did, they just reinvested their dividends for the most part. But if you look at the performance of dividend paying stocks versus stocks that don't pay dividends, there's a very big difference over the years, a very big positive difference. The reason is that those companies tend to be a bit better value and companies that pay dividends tend to be of higher quality because they can't keep all their cash. They're committing to paying out a certain amount of their cash. And so quality and value, we know, are two factors that work very well in the long run. And so by default, you're picking those kinds of companies.

[Alex Osola]

Spencer, as someone who has been paying attention to this space for a really long time, did you find these results surprising?

[Spencer Jacob]

I did find the results surprising that people just reinvested back into the same funds. I would have thought that people who preferred to have income funds must need the money, must be living off the income and spending it down and not just reinvesting it.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ investing columnist Spencer Jacob. Thanks, Spencer.

[Spencer Jacob]

Sure.

[Alex Osola]

In business news, Apple said today that it will delay offering some planned new features to users in the European Union this year because regulations are making it harder to bring them to market in the region. The iPhone maker has to comply with the Digital Markets act, an EU law designed to curb the market power of the world's largest technology companies and make it easier for smaller developers to do business online. Apple has routinely criticized that law, saying, among other things, that it makes rolling out new software features in Europe more complicated. And UK Antitrust officials said today they were investigating Boeing's deal to acquire fuselage maker Spirit Aerosystems. The Competition and Markets Authority has opted to open the first phase of a formal investigation, with a decision due by August 28 on whether to escalate the case. The launch of an antitrust investigation in the UK could pose a regulatory hurdle to the jetmaker's efforts to take control of Spirit's operations and stabilize its supply chain. And that's what's news for this Monday afternoon. Today's show was produced by Pierre Bienname with supervising producer Michael Cosmides. Additional support by Coleman Standifer. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.