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Luke Vargas
Global markets try to shake off yesterday's down day on Wall street as fears about the US Economy mount. Plus, as Tesla's stock skids, Elon Musk admits his work in Washington is making it hard to on his businesses. And we'll get the latest as the US And Ukraine try to mend ties and pave the way for peace talks with Russia.
Michael Gordon
The purpose of the meeting is to sort of right the ship after that very fraught meeting between President Trump Vice President J.D. vance and Zelenskyy. The vibes are good. The proof will be in the pudding.
Luke Vargas
It's Tuesday, March 11th. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM Edition of what's news. The top headlines and business stories moving your markets across Asia and Europe are attempting to find their footing today after yesterday's big slides on Wall street as concerns grow about the US Economy tipping into a recession. Economists are increasingly gloomy with JPMorgan Chase bumping up the possibility of a recession this year to 40% from 30% at the start of the year, while a team at Goldman Sachs put those odds at 20% on Friday, but noted that number could go up if the Trump administration sticks to its policies, even as data worse. Journal Finance editor for Europe Alex Frangos joins me now. And Alex, we are seeing the administration doing just that.
Michael Gordon
Yeah.
Alex Frangos
And I think that's what has people concerned that the market was believing, you know, over the last month that a lot of the tariff talk was bluff, that it was a negotiating tactic, that there would be a quick deal with the different countries involved and we could go on our merry way, hopefully towards tax cuts, which investors love. And have a kind of redux of the Trump 1.0, where you got tax cuts and the tariff stuff didn't turn out to be all that bad. But what they're coming to realize is that Trump is much more serious this time. His advisors around him are much more serious and perhaps a little bit more united in the idea that tariffs are more permanent possibility. And they're worried that the disruptions to trade could really ding the economy. And in a way not to be apocalyptic, but we saw after the financial crisis in 2000, 2009 was that trade stopped because finance stopped and people freaked out and that made the economy plunge. And so there's a little bit of that fear going through markets.
Luke Vargas
Our next test of Trump's commitment to his trade policy will come tomorrow. Our colleague Gavin Bade in Washington reporting that the administration so far is signaling there'll be no reprieve from steel and aluminum tariffs, 25% for each, that are set to go into effect on Wednesday. Though, I guess, Alex, the real test will be whether that commitment holds up. Should we see markets react again like they did yesterday? What's the sense here? A little bit before the open?
Alex Frangos
Yeah, I mean, so far, early in the morning, markets have stabilized a bit and stock futures are pointing up a little bit. But it's certainly not a rebound. And it'll take time for markets to digest and absorb this change in sentiment. You have to remember that you had this huge run up going into the election, after the election, and now it's all erased. And we didn't have a lot of conversations when the stock market was going up a lot. Every day you just sort of go with it, go with the flow. That looks good. But when it starts dropping 4%, as the Nasdaq did yesterday, people start to get really agitated and we're in that mode. But what's changed from November to now, economically, things look a little bit more dour, it's more uncertain. And so investors are trying to price in that change.
Luke Vargas
In terms of helping to price in that change, we'll get a few data points this week that could make that a bit easier.
Alex Frangos
Well, it could be. We'll get inflation numbers and some indicators of the job market and consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment is really important, but what we've seen lately is that it's the sentiment numbers that look bad, but the real economy data in terms of jobs been holding up pretty well. And so I think what people are looking for is the first sign that the job market is cracking or that real activity is turning down. And then we'll have a better sense whether this is a growth scare or an actual heading towards a recession.
Luke Vargas
Alex Frankos Journal finance editor for Europe. Thanks so much for dropping by.
Alex Frangos
Thanks, Luke.
Luke Vargas
In other market news today, Japan's economy grew at a slower pace than initially estimated in the fourth quarter of last year amid concerns that President Trump's economic policies could further dent the country's recovery. Japan's Trade Minister Yoji Muto traveled to D.C. this week, but failed to failed to win an immediate exemption from Trump's tariff campaign. Tesla shares continued their slide in off hours trading after notching their worst day since 2020. Disappointing sales data and investor apprehension over Elon Musk's role in the Trump administration have erased Tesla's post election gains, with shares down more than 45% this year and more than 36% over the past month. In an interview on Fox Business Network's Kudlow, host Larry Kudlow asked Mus the pressure of running the Department of Government Efficiency alongside his other work.
Michael Gordon
I mean, what do you how are you running your other businesses?
Alex Frangos
With great difficulty.
Luke Vargas
On Monday, UBS lowered its first quarter delivery forecast for the electric vehicle maker amid a drop in European deliveries, with environmentally minded buyers increasingly shying away from the brand. And shares in Delta Air Lines have slid in off hours trading after the airline lowered its outlook, citing reduced consumer and corporate confidence, particularly in domestic travel. Airline shares have tumbled in recent weeks as industry analysts said the uncertain economic outlook would likely have a chilling effect on consumers willingness to make vacation plans. Several other airlines will provide updates later today. Coming up, we'll head to Saudi Arabia where high level talks between US And Ukrainian officials are taking place, with both sides hoping for a reset in relations. That story and more after the break.
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Luke Vargas
Top American and Ukrainian officials are meeting as we speak in Saudi Arabia for talks about a potential peace process to end the Russia Ukraine war. The Journal's Michael Gordon is attending those talks in Jeddah. Michael, the last time the US And Ukraine met face to face, it didn't end well. This is that combative encounter in the Oval Office between Trump and Zelensky late last month. What is the atmosphere like there today?
Michael Gordon
The vibes are good. The proof will be in the pudding. What the Ukrainians have suggested in recent days is they're preparing to offer some sort of ceasefire that would apply to airstrikes involving Ukraine and in Russia and perhaps attacks at sea. And indeed, they seem to have underscored the importance of that with a fairly sizable drone attack on Moscow overnight. And Secretary Rubio on the plane over here to Jeddah, he spoke to us just as we were landing and he said he was hopeful there could be progress in this meeting today and that the hold on arms and intelligence to Ukraine was a pause that might soon.
Luke Vargas
Be lifted in terms of Ukraine's negotiating position here. That White House meeting we've been talking about ended with Trump really berating Zelenskyy for not being committed to a peace to end the war with Russia. And yet Ukraine coming to the table today, possibly offering A ceasefire. That sounds like a key distinction.
Michael Gordon
A ceasefire would be an initial step to lay the groundwork for prospective peace talks. It really couldn't be an end in itself, not as far as the US Is concerned and not for the Ukrainians either. I mean, one reason those talks in the White House were so different, difficult as the Ukrainians want some sort of security guarantees. They note that the Russians seized Crimea in 2014 and then came back eight years later and launched a full scale invasion of their country. So Zelensky's argument is Putin can't be trusted. And therefore, if there is to be a peace settlement, there has to be some sort of security guarantee or arrangement where the US Backstops British and French troops in Ukraine or something to make sure that agreement holds. The Americans to date have been reluctant to provide it. So there are not only things that have to be done on the Ukrainian and Russian side to cement a peace, but there are things that have to be done on the west side as well.
Luke Vargas
Given what we've seen about how Secretary of State Rubio fits into the broader Trump administration, Michael, do we get the sense that if, for instance, there's a positive outcome from today's meeting that that necessarily means President Trump is on board?
Michael Gordon
Well, Secretary Rubio is not here alone. The National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, is here as well. And they were also involved in the talks last month in Riyadh with the Russians. So I think they do speak for the administration. But one gets the sense that they're trying to make the policy work as effectively as possible. And President Trump at times can be a little unpredictable and he certainly speaks in harsher terms about the Ukrainians. So there's that to take into account. But you have to assume they were sent here for a purpose. And we'll just see at the end of the day what comes out of this.
Luke Vargas
I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal national security correspondent Michael Gordon in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia this morning. Michael, thank you so much for update.
Michael Gordon
Thank you.
Luke Vargas
Philippine authorities have arrested former President Rodrigo Duterte on a warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity during his so called war on drugs. Human rights groups say more than 12,000 people were killed in anti drug operations during Duterte's six years in office when police and state backed vigilantes violently targeted anyone, even loosely suspected of selling drugs. Duterte's arrest marks a rare triumph for the ICC which has struggled to get states to act on its warrants. We are exclusively reporting that Washington and Beijing are considering a potential birthday summit in the US Between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in June. The two leaders birthdays are just one day apart on June 14th and 15th, respectively. Nothing has been firmed up yet, and both the White House and the Chinese embassy declined to comment on the plans. But people familiar with Beijing's thinking say leadership there has a strong interest in negotiations with Trump to fend off or at least slow down additional tariff hikes and technology restrictions from the U.S. and speaking of the great power rivalry between the world's top two economies, we've been working on a special series about how Beijing is using its trillion dollar belt and road infrastructure program to undercut American dominance on the world stage. All three episodes of Building Influence are available now on the what's News feed and we've left a link to them in our show notes. And that's it for what's News for this Tuesday morning. Additional sound in this episode was from Reuters. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bach and Kate Bullivant, with supervising producer Sandra Kilhoff. And I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.
Comcast Business
With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity and expert partnership, Comcast business helps turn today's enterprises into engines of modern business. Powering the engine of modern business powering possibilities. Restrictions apply.
WSJ What’s News: Musk Admits ‘Difficulty’ Running Businesses Amid DOGE Work – March 11, 2025
Hosted by The Wall Street Journal
In the March 11, 2025 episode of WSJ What’s News, host Luke Vargas delves into a spectrum of pressing global and economic issues. The episode navigates through mounting fears of a US recession, Elon Musk’s admission of challenges in managing his businesses alongside government responsibilities, and the evolving dynamics between the US and Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict with Russia. Additionally, the podcast touches upon significant international developments, including the arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and potential high-level US-China summits.
Rising Recession Fears:
The episode opens with a spotlight on the precarious state of the US economy. Following a significant downturn on Wall Street, fears of a recession have intensified. Economists are bearish, with JPMorgan Chase elevating the recession probability to 40% from an earlier 30%, while Goldman Sachs estimates a 20% chance, noting potential increases contingent on the Trump administration's steadfast policies.
Tariff Policies Under Scrutiny:
Alex Frangos, Journal Finance Editor for Europe, provides an in-depth analysis of the Trump administration's trade policies. He explains, “Trump is much more serious this time. His advisors around him are much more serious and perhaps a little bit more united in the idea that tariffs are more permanent” (02:51). This steadfast approach to tariffs, particularly the impending 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, has unsettled markets. Frangos highlights investor concerns over prolonged trade disruptions, drawing parallels to past economic crises where halted trade exacerbated downturns.
Market Reactions and Future Outlook:
As tariffs loom, Gavin Bade from Washington reports that there is little indication of reprieve, signaling a potential market volatility. Alex Frangos notes, “Early in the morning, markets have stabilized a bit and stock futures are pointing up a little bit. But it's certainly not a rebound” (03:18). The uncertainty is palpable as investors await crucial data points, including inflation rates, job market indicators, and consumer sentiment, to gauge the economic trajectory.
Balancing Multiple Roles:
A significant portion of the episode focuses on Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, who has publicly acknowledged the difficulties in managing his businesses while serving in a governmental capacity. During an interview on Fox Business Network’s Kudlow, host Larry Kudlow presses Musk on this issue:
This admission comes at a time when Tesla’s stock is experiencing a sharp decline, exacerbated by disappointing sales data and investor concerns over Musk’s divided attention between his business ventures and his governmental responsibilities.
Tesla’s Declining Performance:
Tesla shares have plummeted, marking their worst performance since 2020. The stock is down over 45% for the year and has fallen more than 36% in the past month. UBS has downgraded its first-quarter delivery forecast for Tesla, citing a drop in European deliveries and a shift in consumer preferences away from the brand.
Airline Industry Struggles:
Delta Air Lines is also facing headwinds, with shares declining in after-hours trading following a lowered outlook. The airline attributes this to reduced consumer and corporate confidence, particularly in domestic travel. This trend is part of a broader downturn in the airline sector, where uncertainty in the economic outlook is dampening consumer willingness to plan vacations.
High-Level Negotiations:
The podcast shifts focus to ongoing peace talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, aiming to reset relations and forge a pathway to peace with Russia. Michael Gordon, the Journal's correspondent attending the talks in Jeddah, reports a cautiously optimistic atmosphere:
Key Discussions:
Ukraine is reportedly preparing to offer a ceasefire, potentially applying to airstrikes and naval activities. However, the US emphasizes that a ceasefire is just a preliminary step towards comprehensive peace negotiations. Security guarantees are a pivotal point of contention, with Ukraine seeking assurances to prevent future Russian aggression, invoking the annexation of Crimea in 2014 as a precedent.
Administration’s Stance:
Secretary Rubio, accompanied by National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, represents the Trump administration’s efforts to facilitate effective policy outcomes. Gordon notes, “Secretary Rubio is not here alone... they do speak for the administration” (09:32), although he cautions about President Trump's unpredictability and his stern rhetoric towards Ukrainian leadership.
Rodrigo Duterte’s Arrest:
In a significant international development, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has been arrested by Philippine authorities based on a warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity during his anti-drug campaign. Human rights organizations report that over 12,000 individuals were killed in operations targeting suspected drug offenders, highlighting the severity of Duterte’s administration.
Potential US-China Summit:
The episode also touches on the possibility of a high-level summit between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in June, aligning their birthdays on June 14th and 15th respectively. While plans remain unconfirmed, sources indicate that both the White House and Chinese officials are considering the summit as a strategic opportunity to negotiate and potentially ease the ongoing tariffs and technology restrictions imposed by the US.
Additionally, the podcast mentions a special series, “Building Influence,” which explores how China’s Belt and Road Initiative is being leveraged to challenge American global dominance. Listeners are encouraged to access all three episodes on the What’s News feed.
The March 11, 2025 episode of WSJ What’s News provides a comprehensive analysis of the current economic uncertainties in the US, the multifaceted challenges faced by Elon Musk in balancing his entrepreneurial and governmental roles, and the delicate negotiations aiming to resolve the US-Ukraine-Russia conflict. Coupled with significant international developments involving the ICC and potential US-China dialogues, the episode underscores a period of heightened global tension and economic volatility.
Additional sound in this episode was provided by Reuters. Production credits go to Daniel Bach and Kate Bullivant, with supervising producer Sandra Kilhoff.
Note: Timestamps are referenced in brackets (e.g., 02:51) for clarity and attribution purposes.