Oil Jumps to $100 a Barrel, Stocks Sink as Hormuz Crisis Deepens

Summary

WSJ What’s News — PM Edition

Episode: Oil Jumps to $100 a Barrel, Stocks Sink as Hormuz Crisis Deepens

Date: March 12, 2026
Host: Alex Osola, The Wall Street Journal

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Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the rapidly deepening crisis in the Middle East and its wide-ranging impact on global markets, particularly the dramatic spike in oil prices to $100 a barrel. Host Alex Osola and expert guests discuss how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting commodity markets, agriculture, airline pricing, and cybersecurity. The episode also covers how investors and companies are reacting and how the conflict’s economic ripple effects are being felt worldwide.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Middle East Conflict Escalates: Leaders, Threats, and Oil Disruption

• Moshebah Khamenei issued his first official message as Iran’s new supreme leader, vowing to escalate the war, target US bases, and maintain the Strait of Hormuz closure.

  "Khamenei said Iran would open new fronts in the war, promise to attack US Bases in the Middle East and to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed." (A, 00:55)

• The U.S. Navy prepares to begin military escorts in the Strait of Hormuz to counter Iranian threats, but is not ready to act immediately:

  "It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now. We're simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran's offensive capabilities." — Energy Secretary Chris Wright on CNBC (C, 01:49)

• Oil futures closed above $100 a barrel for the first time since August, after surging 65% this year.

  "Hopes of quickly restoring the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz are dimming... President Trump said stopping the Iranian regime from getting nuclear weapons was a higher priority than oil prices." (A, 02:44)

2. Market Reactions: Stocks Drop, Fertilizer and Airline Prices Surge

• Major US indexes fell sharply on fears of ongoing conflict:
  • Dow: -700 points (-1.6%)
  • S&P: -1.5%
  • Nasdaq: -1.8%
    (A, 03:13)
• Fertilizer prices are up substantially due to supply disruptions:

  "The Middle East is actually a massive producer of ... nitrogen fertilizer. The plants are idled right now... The raw materials all come through the Strait of Hormuz, and that is being blocked ... and that is causing big supply problems." — Patrick Thomas, WSJ agriculture reporter (D, 03:34)

• Fertilizer shortage causes shares of American producers like Mosaic, CF Industries, and Canada’s Nutrien to surge (D, 04:01).

Agricultural Impact: Hard Choices for US Farmers

• Farmers are being forced to switch from corn (which needs a lot of fertilizer) to soybeans (which needs less):

  "I was texting a farmer in North Dakota ... he's got 150 acres that he's switching to soybeans ... you're going to see that stretched across American agriculture. So, probably less corn, which could have big implications for supply." — Patrick Thomas (D, 04:44)

• Possible longer-term implications: "This could stretch into 2027... farmers, they're going to be stressed with higher costs." (D, 04:44)

Airlines: Soaring Ticket Prices

• Airline fares are rising, especially on transatlantic and Caribbean routes, and for last-minute bookings (A, 05:45).
• Oil’s price spike puts pressure on airlines to charge more; Spirit Airlines has seen the biggest increase in domestic fares for flights three weeks out (A, 06:14).

3. Cyberwarfare Rises: The Stryker Hack

• Stryker, a major US medical tech firm, suffered a significant cyberattack by hackers claiming retaliation on behalf of Iran; this is one of the first clear examples of the conflict’s digital impact spreading globally.

  "Phones were wiped, there were forced resets going through. So hitting something like Stryker or any other big US company just gives them bragging rights ... it allows them to ... shock the public." — James Rundle, WSJ Pro (B, 07:24)

• The conflict’s cyber “parallel front”:

  "Cyber has effectively become a parallel front in the conflict. ... The attack on Stryker also stands out because it's one of the first visible examples of a single successful disruption outside of the immediate region." (B, 07:24)

• Three types of attackers:
  • State-linked Iranian operators
  • Proxy/aligned hacktivist groups (some state-backed)
  • Independent hacktivists (B, 08:16)
• Most attacks targeted regional players, but “we’re now starting to see, as with Stryker, activity spill outwards, including attacks on Western companies who are either targets of opportunity or ... perceived as being connected to the conflict." (B, 08:40)
• US and Israeli cyber operations have reportedly degraded Iran's cyber capabilities, perhaps reducing retaliation severity (B, 09:07).

4. Broader Economic Ripples

• US trade deficit shrank 25% in January (A, 09:28):
  • Exports up 5.5%, driven by gold sales
  • Imports down 0.7%, mainly from fewer pharmaceuticals purchased abroad
• Trump-era tariffs impacting US retailers, with legal action against Costco for possible tariff overcharges to shoppers—potential class action status (A, 10:20).
• Honda forecasts a $15.7 billion loss due to scaling back on electric vehicles, a first since 1977; other carmakers are similarly retrenching as EV demand lags (A, 10:47).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the new Iranian leader’s strategy:
  "Khamenei said Iran would open new fronts in the war, promise to attack US Bases in the Middle East and to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed." (A, 00:55)
• US Navy’s preparation to escort tankers — Energy Secretary Chris Wright:
  "It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now. We're simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran's offensive capabilities." (C, 01:49)
• On fertilizer supply risk:
  "The raw materials all come through the Strait of Hormuz, and that is being blocked... that is causing big supply problems." — Patrick Thomas (D, 03:34)
• Cyber conflict spills beyond the Middle East — James Rundle:
  "The attack on Stryker also stands out because it's one of the first visible examples of a single successful disruption outside of the immediate region. And that suggests that the conflict's cyber dimension may be starting to spread more globally." (B, 07:54)
• Farmers are forced to adapt: "Probably less corn, which could have big implications for supply. ... maybe this time next year we're going to have pretty high corn prices." — Patrick Thomas (D, 04:44)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:50 — Introduction and Overview of Iran’s New Supreme Leader’s Statement
• 01:49 — Energy Secretary Chris Wright on US Navy Operation Readiness
• 02:44 — Oil Market Updates & President Trump’s Priorities
• 03:34–05:40 — Patrick Thomas on Fertilizer Market and Agricultural Impact
• 05:45–06:14 — Airline Pricing Amid Oil Price Hikes
• 06:54–09:28 — James Rundle on Stryker Cyberattack and Growing Cyberwarfare
• 09:28–10:47 — Brief Headlines: US Trade Deficit, Costco Tariff Lawsuit, Honda EV Pullback

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Summary Flow & Tone

The episode retains a brisk, news-driven tone, with concise analysis and firsthand reporting. The host maintains focus on the most pressing headline developments and their market impacts, while specialists add expert insight into agriculture and cybersecurity.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode delivers a comprehensive update on the cascading fallout from heightened Middle East conflict, from spiking oil and fertilizer prices hurting consumers and farmers, to the first major US company hit by conflict-linked cyberattacks, and ripple effects on airlines, trade, and major corporations like Honda. It's an essential listen for anyone wanting to grasp how geopolitical tension is shaping markets and reshaping daily commerce and economic outlooks across the US and beyond.

Transcript

[A]

Goldman Sachs 2026 outlooks examine the trends shaping the global economy, from global growth and regional perspectives to deep dives into asset classes and portfolio allocation. Listen to exchanges outlook 2026 from Goldman Sachs. Iran's new supreme leader issues his first official message but continues to stay out of public view. Plus, the war in the Middle east isn't just disrupting the oil market. It's also driving up prices for things like flights and fertilizer. And hackers hit an American medical devices company called Stryker, saying that they were retaliating on behalf of Iran.

[B]

The attack on Stryker stands out because it's one of the first visible examples of a successful disruption outside of the immediate region, and that suggests that the conflict's cyber dimension may be starting to spread more globally.

[A]

It's Thursday, March 12th. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's news. The the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. Moshebah Khamenei made his first public remarks since succeeding his father to become Iran's supreme leader. In a written statement that appeared in Iranian state media today, Khamenei said Iran would open new fronts in the war, promise to attack US Bases in the Middle east and to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. Khamenei hasn't been seen in public since the start of the war, which has fueled speculation about his physical well being in the Gulf. The US Said it has ramped up its attacks on Iranian mine laying boats as well as mine facilities. It's trying to preempt efforts by Iran to put mines in the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt the global economy. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US Navy will begin military escorts in the Strait of Hormuz later. Here he is speaking on CNBC this morning.

[C]

It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now. We're simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran's offensive capabilities.

[A]

Elsewhere in the Middle East, Hezbollah has fired shells towards Syrian military positions, sparking concern of a new war front. Israel's truck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after the militia launched hundreds of rockets at the country overnight. And Kuwait said drones targeted its airport Brent crude futures. The global benchmark oil price settled above $100 a barrel today. Though oil futures surged above $100 in overnight trading on Sunday, today was the first time they closed above that mark in regular trading since Aug. Hopes of quickly restoring the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz are dimming more tankers were attacked in the waters around Iran. And President Trump said stopping the Iranian regime from getting nuclear weapons was a higher priority than oil prices. Brent futures have soared 65% this year, and stocks fell on worries of a long conflict that will mean a lasting disruption to oil markets. The Dow fell more than 700 points, or 1.6%. The S&P fell 1.5% and the Nasdaq closed down 1.8%. We talked on this morning's show about the economic winners and losers of the conflict in the Middle East. And this evening we're honing in on one industry in particular, agriculture. Prices for fertilizer are surging, sending shares of the companies that make it soaring. And the farmers that need that fertilizer, they have some tough choices ahead for the spring planting season. Joining us now is Patrick Thomas, who covers agriculture for the Journal. Patrick, why is the Middle east important for the fertilizer industry?

[D]

So the Middle east is actually a massive producer of what's called nitrogen fertilizer. The plants are idled right now. So you're not having the fertilizer produced in plants in the Middle east. And then raw materials that would go into producing it maybe in Europe and elsewhere right now are not getting out as well. The raw materials all come through the Strait of Hormuz, and that is being blocked, that cannot get out, and that is causing big supply problems.

[A]

How has this been going over on Wall Street?

[D]

Yeah, investors are really betting that American companies like Mosaic, which is based in Florida, CF Industries in Illinois, Nutrien, which is out of Canada, will be able to expand their profit margins, expand market share in a time of high prices. So you're seeing investors really send these shares of the companies surging in the last couple of days.

[A]

High prices for fertilizer makes me, of course, wonder how the farmers themselves are doing because this is the crucial spring planting season. Farmers have been in a tough spot for the past few years. There have been lower prices because there were these bumper crops. And then there was, of course, the impact of President Trump's tariffs. Now, as these fertilizer costs are also rising, what are these farmers doing about this?

[D]

So this is a massive deal and might have an impact for quite some time. This could stretch into 2027. Prices are going through the roof and there's concerns about if they'll even be able to get it if they bought it from Middle East. Stuff's not coming out right now. So what they're doing is they're going to switch to soybeans, which require a lot less fertilizer than corn. So I was texting a farmer in North Dakota who has a lot of farmland, but he's got 150 acres that he's switching to soybeans. So not a big amount, but you're going to see that stretched across American agriculture. So, so probably less corn, which could have big implications for supply. And we were just coming out of a supply glut. Well, maybe this time next year we're going to have pretty high corn prices, so we'll see how it turns out. But farmers, they're going to be stressed with higher costs. It's kind of hard right now to see how this will pencil out for the farmers balance sheets.

[A]

That was Wall Street Journal reporter Patrick Thomas. Thanks, Patrick.

[D]

Thanks so much for having me.

[A]

Another industry where we're seeing prices rise, airlines average ticket prices were rising even before the conflict. And since it started, airfare increases have only accelerated. The rapid run up in oil prices has created urgency for airlines to charge more. A new report from Deutsche bank says the biggest price increases are on transatlantic and Caribbean routes as well as some last minute flights. The report said that of nine US Carriers sponsored, Spirit Airlines had the biggest increase in fares for domestic flights that were three weeks away. A Spirit spokesman says the airline is seeing strong bookings for spring break. Coming up, what's happening on the cyber front of the Middle east conflict? That's after the break,

[C]

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[A]

Yesterday, thousands of employees at medical technology company Stryker woke up to find that their cell phones and laptops didn't work. It was because of a major cyber attack and the hackers said that they were retaliating on behalf of Iran. James Rundle covers cybersecurity for WSJ Pro and is here to tell us more. James, we've talked a lot on the show recently about these attacks from drones and missiles and all of these physical elements of this conflict in the Middle East. Have we seen a lot of cyber attacks since it started and what role have they played in the conflict so far?

[B]

We have Cyber has effectively become a parallel front in the conflict. Things like website defacements, denial of service attacks, data leaks and attempts to disrupt companies or public services and strike is a good example of that. The company said they saw no evidence of ransomware which would normally suggest a criminal Activity, in this case, it was fairly destructive. Phones were wiped, there were forced resets going through. So hitting something like Stryker or any other big US company just gives them bragging rights effectively at the end of the day. And it allows them to, as we saw with how quickly the story spread, shock the public. The attack on Striker also stands out because it's one of the first visible examples of a single successful disruption outside of the immediate region. And that suggests that the conflict's cyber dimension may be starting to spread more globally.

[A]

So who exactly is doing the attacking and who is on the receiving end of these attacks?

[B]

So there are already three layers of actors involved. There's the state linked operators, particularly groups who are associated with Iran's intelligence services or the Revolutionary Guard. Second, there are proxy or aligned hacktivist groups. So those are groups that publicly frame their attacks as political activism, but maybe operating with some level of state backing. It ties into Iran's general strategy of force projection. It has a lot of proxy groups in the Middle east, so it has Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas. The similar approach is taken in cyber as well. And then third, there are independent hacktivists trying to participate in the conflict digitally or ideologically. The targets have been largely regional so far. So Israeli government agencies, companies, infrastructure providers. But we're now starting to see, as with Stryker, some activity spill outwards, including attacks on Western companies who are either targets of opportunity or might be perceived as being connected to the conflict. It hasn't been entirely one sided as well. US and Israeli cyber operations are believed to have degraded Iran's cyber capability before it started. And some policymakers say that explains why the retaliation hasn't been as severe as some experts feared.

[A]

That was WSJ pro reporter James Rundle. James also hosts the Risk Journal podcast, a show on risk and emerging global threats. Check it out wherever you get your podcasts. The US trade deficit fell 25% in January to $54.5 billion, continuing a volatile run for America's trade balance. Exports grew by 5 and a half percent, with sales of gold to overseas buyers driving the gain. As for imports, those slipped 0.7%, mostly because the US bought fewer pharmaceuticals from abroad. And speaking of international trade, retailers are facing a new repercussion from Trump's tariffs. A Costco shopper is suing, saying Costco owes its customers tariff refunds. The suit says Costco raised prices because of the tariffs. And now that the Supreme Court has struck down some tariffs, that Costco should refund shoppers. The lawsuit is seeking class action. Status. A Costco spokesman declined to comment. But the company has said that if Costco itself gets tariff refunds, it will try to return value to its members through lower prices and better values. And Honda expects a hit of up to $15.7 billion as it retrenches on electric vehicles. Honda's decided to cancel the launches and development of certain models as a result of these changes. Honda expects to swing to its first annual loss since the company started reporting its consolidated results in 1977. Honda's not alone here. Other carmakers are also pulling back on EVs. Many Americans are still reluctant to buy them. And that's what's news for this Thursday afternoon. Today's show was produced by Pierre Bienname with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. Be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

[E]

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[A]

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