Oil Slides in Wild Trading After Trump Suggests Iran War Could End Soon

Summary

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WSJ What’s News – PM Edition

Episode: Oil Slides in Wild Trading After Trump Suggests Iran War Could End Soon

Date: March 9, 2026
Host: Alex Osola

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Brief Overview

This WSJ What’s News PM episode centers on dramatic volatility in the oil markets amid ongoing conflict in Iran and the broader Middle East, President Trump’s surprising comments hinting at a possible end to the war, and the wide ripple effects on global markets and consumer prices. The episode weaves in other top business stories, including Anthropic’s lawsuit against the federal government, updates on Live Nation's antitrust settlement, the sale of blockbuster weight loss drugs, and Disney/Pixar's latest franchise hopes.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Wild Oil Market Volatility & Impact of Geopolitical Risk

[00:33–03:55]

• Oil Price Behavior:

  • Oil prices dropped more than 20% from overnight peaks to finish below $100 a barrel, with after-hours trading seeing another 5% drop.
    • “Oil prices reverse, falling more than 20% from their overnight peak and ending below $100 a barrel.” —Alex Osola [00:33]
  • The U.S. oil benchmark swung from $119 to under $90 within hours, described as “some of the wildest commodity trading on record.” —David Uberti [02:36]

• Market Uncertainty:

  • Markets are roiled by the uncertainty on the duration and impact of the Iran conflict physically disrupting oil supplies globally.
    • “Nobody knows what's happening or what the outlook is going forward. This is some of the wildest commodity trading on record.” —David Uberti [02:36]
  • The G7 said it is prepared to release strategic reserves if stabilization is needed.

• Winners & Losers:

  • Winners: Non-Middle East oil producers (“If you're an oil producer in West Texas or New Mexico, you are about to get a windfall profit…” —David Uberti [03:03])
  • Losers: All consumers—from construction to farming and manufacturing—as input and byproduct costs rise sharply. Natural gas prices are also rising globally.

• Possible Futures:

  • Analysts warn that significant disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could see oil spike to $150/bbl; Iran has threatened that prices could reach $200.
    • “If oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for weeks longer, it could push prices up to $150 a barrel. And that will have a really big impact on U.S. economic growth and U.S. inflation expectations.” —David Uberti [03:55]

2. Gas Price Spike & Domestic Political Ramifications

[00:50–05:21]

• Immediate Impact at the Pump:

  • Gasoline climbed 17% to $3.48/gallon nationally since the war began; forecasts suggest $4/gallon by the coming weekend. [00:50]
  • Viral social media posts document prices:
    • “‘Regular has gone up about 70 cents in a week or so… $4.79 on the regular.’” —Ben Fritz [01:56]

• Political Stakes:

  • High gasoline prices pose risks for the Trump administration, as lower energy prices have been a reelection promise. Now, prices are higher than when President Trump took office.
    • “President Trump staked his reelection in large part on bringing down prices...now we're seeing gasoline and diesel...trading higher than when Trump took office.” —David Uberti [04:28]
  • The impact is mixed: U.S. as a net energy exporter might weather the crisis better than import-dependent Europe and Asia, but U.S. consumers still feel the squeeze.

3. Global & Security Developments

[05:25–06:41]

• President Trump’s Position:
  • Stocks rallied in late trading after Trump said the war could be “very complete, pretty much at the pump,” boosting market optimism.
    • Nasdaq gained 1.4%; Dow recovered from a deep loss [05:25].
  • Trump reportedly told aides he’d support the killing of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, if demands are not met.
    • “We’re reporting that the president has told aides he would back the killing of the new Iranian supreme leader...if he's unwilling to accept U.S. demands.” —Alex Osola [05:41]
  • In the New York Post, Trump also said he’s “nowhere near deploying US Troops to Iran to secure nuclear material.” [05:49]
  • Brief notes on U.S. military casualties and re-deployments, NATO missile interceptions, and an attempted terror attack in NYC tied to anti-Islamic protests.

4. Anthropic Sues Trump Administration

[08:02–08:44]

• Legal Challenge:
  • AI company Anthropic filed suit after being labeled a security threat and losing federal contracts, claiming retaliation over defense-related AI policies.
  • White House response: “The president wouldn't allow a ‘radical left woke company to hurt national security by telling the military how to operate.’” —White House spokeswoman [08:32]

5. Other Major Business Headlines

[08:44–10:03]

• Live Nation Antitrust Settlement:

  • DOJ and Live Nation reached a deal to avoid breaking up the business, though more than 20 states object and seek a new trial.
  • Settlement aims to give rival promoters easier access to Live Nation venues.

• Hims & Hers/Novo Nordisk Deal:

  • Agreement allows telehealth platform to sell weight loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic ($149–$499/month), ending litigation.
  • Hims & Hers shares jump 41% [09:23].

6. Disney/Pixar’s “Hoppers” and the Future of Animation Franchises

[10:03–12:10]

• Big Box Office for a New Original:

  • Pixar’s “Hoppers,” a comedy where a girl hops her consciousness into a beaver, earned $88 million globally—biggest original animated opening since 2017.
  • Movie praised as “more outright funny and zany than most Pixar movies.” —Ben Fritz [10:03]

• Audience & Business Shift:

  • Change from personal director stories to broadly appealing “high concept” (easily explainable, big hook) helps explain Hoppers’ success over recent Pixar originals.
  • The franchise model is crucial:
    • “Nowadays…if it grosses 4 or $500 million, people like it, a lot of views on Disney plus, that might just be enough…then they become theme park attractions, …they create sequels…and it's like it's a flywheel, as they like to call it in the media business.” —Ben Fritz [11:05]

• Persistent Industry Headwinds:

  • Post-pandemic, audiences prefer established franchises. Even a strong original may not recapture the glory of past Pixar hits but can still spark a long-term, company-wide franchise.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Nobody knows what's happening or what the outlook is going forward. This is some of the wildest commodity trading on record.”
  —David Uberti [02:36]

• “If you're an oil producer in West Texas or New Mexico, you are about to get a windfall profit from some of these price increases that we are seeing…The losers are everyone else who consumes oil.”
  —David Uberti [03:03]

• “If oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for weeks longer, it could push prices up to $150 a barrel. And that will have a really big impact on U.S. economic growth and U.S. inflation expectations. That's bad for markets broadly.”
  —David Uberti [03:55]

• “President Trump staked his reelection in large part on bringing down prices…they're actually trading higher than they were when Trump took office.”
  —David Uberti [04:28]

• “We created a revolutionary technology that gives us unprecedented access to the animal world. We call it Hoppers.”
  —Pixar’s “Hoppers” trailer excerpt [09:45]

• “When you think about the huge Pixar hits...I could describe them to you on one line and you get it right...Pixar's last several original movies...didn't have that kind of easy sales hook.”
  —Ben Fritz [10:34]

• “If Disney stock is going to go back on the rise, they really need to have new hit franchises that are making money throughout the company.”
  —Ben Fritz [11:55]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:33] – Oil price crash, market volatility
• [01:56] – Personal accounts of rising gas prices
• [02:36] – Market analysis and uncertainty (w/ David Uberti)
• [03:03] – Winners and losers in high oil price environment
• [03:55] – Worst-case scenario for oil supply
• [04:28] – Political ramifications and global winners/losers
• [05:25] – Stocks rally, Trump’s statements on Iran war
• [06:41] – Security update: terror plot in NYC
• [08:02] – Anthropic sues the Defense Department
• [08:44] – Live Nation settlement and Hims & Hers deal
• [09:45] – Pixar’s “Hoppers” and Disney franchise strategy
• [10:57] – The evolving market for original animated films

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Episode Tone & Style

The episode balances urgent, fact-driven reportage on market turmoil and geopolitics with sharp, business-savvy analysis and clear explanations of how these news items connect to consumer concerns, investor stakes, and cultural shifts. The language is accessible, brisk, and peppered with both colorful market snapshots and direct, reportorial quotes.

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Transcript

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[Alex Osola]

Oil prices reverse falling more than 20% from their overnight peak and ending below $100 a barrel.

[David Uberti]

This is some of the wildest commodity trading on record and it just speaks to the uncertainty in the market of how long the conflict in Iran and the broader Middle east is going to go.

[Alex Osola]

Plus, Anthropic sues the Trump administration for trying to end its contracts with the federal government and could Pixar's latest movie be the big new franchise Disney wants? It's Monday, March Nint Alex I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. It's been a wild day for oil prices which sank 20% from their peak last night and then fell 5% more in after hours trading. One big reason the Group of Seven advanced economies is prepared to release strategic oil reserves if they're needed to stabilize the market. And then CBS News reported that President Trump said he believes that, quote, the war is very complete, pretty much at the pump. Though many Americans are already feeling the squeeze. Gas prices have climbed 17% to an average $3.48 a gallon since the war started. Some experts are predicting that it could hit $4 a gallon by the weekend. And of course people are posting about gas prices on social media.

[Ben Fritz]

So regular has gone up about 70 cents in a week or so, which is kind of crazy. Price is over here. 479 on the regular. 479 on the regular. Extra 559. Guys, if you have not gotten gas

[Alex Osola]

you may want to because they're even saying tomorrow that the gas prices are going to go up. To discuss what this means for markets, I'm joined by WSJ reporter David Uberti. David in late trading the US oil benchmark was dropping below 90 down from a high of 119 a barrel. Or what does that tell us about traders? State of mind?

[David Uberti]

In short, that nobody knows what's happening or what the outlook is going forward. This is some of the wildest commodity trading on record. And it just speaks to the uncertainty in the market of how long the conflict in Iran and the broader Middle east is going to go and the extent to which that's going to actually snarl physical supplies of oil that manufacturers, farmers, and different types of companies around the world really rely on.

[Alex Osola]

And who is benefiting from this huge run up in oil prices?

[David Uberti]

The winners in the market are the companies that produce oil that are not in the line of fire. So if you're an oil producer in West Texas or New Mexico, you are about to get a windfall profit from some of these price increases that we are seeing. And obviously, the longer it goes on, the more that will boost their bottom lines. The losers are everyone else who consumes oil. Construction crews, manufacturers, big farming companies, oil and all of the byproduct that are created when we produce it go into basically every facet of the modern economy. In addition, natural gas is a very key input for a lot of manufacturers around the world. They are going to experience price increases, if not already.

[Alex Osola]

What is the worst case scenario that analysts are envisioning? I mean, Iran is threatening $200 a barrel for oil. Is that possible or even likely?

[David Uberti]

It's certainly possible. The extent to which it's likely is really an open question right now. Major analysts that we follow suggest that if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for weeks longer, it could push prices up to $150 a barrel. And that will have a really big impact on U.S. economic growth and U.S. inflation expectations. That's bad for markets broadly.

[Alex Osola]

Yeah. What are some of the political ramifications of that? If people are already starting to feel this at the pump and then it just potentially gets even more exacerbated as this conflict continues.

[David Uberti]

Gasoline prices are the prices that Americans see most commonly in their day to day lives. You drive past them on your way to you fuel up your tank of gas. President Trump staked his reelection in large part on bringing down prices, including energy prices, in a very big way. And now we're seeing gasoline and diesel in particular, along with all the other byproducts of petroleum. They're actually trading higher than they were when Trump took office. But if you look at the global economy broadly, the US Might be a net winner. Europe and Asia rely on imports from the Middle east for a lot of their energy. And you're seeing global markets tied to some of those economies fall in a much, much bigger way than they are in the U.S. the impacts are really hard to suss out because you have on one hand those windfall profits to producers which obviously feed into investors returns. On the other hand, you have the hit to consumers bottom lines.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter David Uberti. Thanks, David.

[David Uberti]

Thanks.

[Alex Osola]

The president's reported comments to CBS also helped lift stocks. The Nasdaq led indexes with a 1.4% gain. The Dow rose 0.5% or 239 points, after being down almost 900 points in early trading. And in other updates on the war, we're reporting that the president has told aides he would back the killing of the new Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, if he's unwilling to accept U.S. demands. That's according to current and former U.S. officials. Khamenei is the son of the former supreme leader who was killed by an Israeli airstrike during the conflict. He's seen as a hardline successor to his father. President Trump also said in an interview with the New York Post today that he is, quote, nowhere near deploying US Troops to Iran to secure nuclear material. Eight US Military personnel have been seriously wounded in addition to the seven that have been killed in the conflict. More than 36,000Americans have returned from the Middle east since the conflict began. The air war continues with NATO air defenses intercepting an Iranian ballistic missile that entered Turkish airspace. Separately, two men were charged in federal court today for attempting to carry out a terrorist attack at a protest in New York City over the weekend. They were arrested on Saturday for throwing two improvised explosive devices. One of the men, Emir Balat, told investigators that they had hoped to carry out an attack that was bigger than the Boston marathon bombing in 2013. The criminal complaint says both men professed their allegiance to the Islamic State militant group after their arrest. New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani said the men had traveled from Pennsylvania and were protesting an anti Islamic demonstration near the mayor's residence. A lawyer for Balat said that his client was 18 years old and had, quote, complicated stuff going on. He said that Balat and the other defendant, Ibrahim Kayyumi, didn't know each other. Coming up, Anthropic sues the Defense Department. Live Nation settles with the Justice Department and Disney's Pixar brings in a big opening weekend. That's after the break.

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[Alex Osola]

Anthropic has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for designating the company a security threat and trying to cancel its federal contracts. The maker of Claude says the government went beyond its authority and retaliated against it because Anthropic didn't agree on how AI should be used by the Defense Department. The company asked the court to declare the moves unlawful. A White House spokeswoman said the president wouldn't allow a quote, radical left woke company to hurt national security by telling the military how to operate. In other legal news, the Justice Department and Live Nation have reached an antitrust settlement. The agreement comes after a week of trial and means Live Nation isn't at risk of having its business broken up. The deal makes it easier for other promoters to compete for business at venues that Live Nation controls. Though several states have agreed to the framework, more than 20 state attorneys general objected to it and want a new trial, and Novo Nordisk says Hims and Hers Health will sell its weight loss drugs through the telehealth company's platform. The deal brings an end to the legal dispute between the companies. Wegovy and Ozempic will go on sale later this month at Novo Nordisk's self pay prices of $149 to $499 a month. Hims and hers shares jumped 41%. Pixar's Hoppers debuted at the box office this weekend. The movie is a comedy about a girl who hops her consciousness into a beaver and talks to animals. We created a revolutionary technology that gives us unprecedented access to the animal world. We call it Hoppers. While existing franchises like the Zootopia and Moana sequels have been raking it in, the Hoppers opening was different. It was the biggest debut for an original animated movie since 2017 and earned an estimated $88 million worldwide. Even so, it's a far cry from the success of the early Aughts films like Finding Nemo and Cars. Ben Fritz covers the entertainment industry for the Journal and recently saw Hoppers. Ben how is the movie and what have critics been saying about it?

[Ben Fritz]

It's gotten amazing reviews, which is great for Pixar, and it's a bit of a change of course for them. It's more outright funny and zany than most Pixar movies. People are this movie's got a big. In Hollywood, they would call it high concept, like a big hook. In this case, as you said, the girl hopping her unconscious is into beavers. Pixar's last few movies have been more kind of autobiographical tales about their directors. And I think they haven't had the commercial hook that audiences are looking for.

[Alex Osola]

That big, broad appeal for an original movie.

[Ben Fritz]

Right? Exactly. When you think about the huge Pixar hits from the past, I could describe them to you on one line and you get it right. Like, what if your toys talked? What if the monsters in your closet were real? What if your emotions were actual people talking inside your head? You get it really quickly. Pixar's last several original movies like Elio and Turning Red and Luca, didn't have that kind of easy sales hook.

[Alex Osola]

Can Pixar even have, like a Finding Nemo again? Like, what's different about releasing animated films now versus in the past?

[Ben Fritz]

Post pandemic, people are just not going to theaters as much. And when they do, they strongly prefer franchises that they're already familiar with. The market for original movies of all stripes in Hollywood has really been struggling. And so I think realistically they have to expect that an original hit may only gross 4 or $500 million compared to 6, 7, 8 in the past, which means it won't make much of a profit because these movies cost Pixar like $200 million to make. But nowadays I think they just say, well, look, if it grosses 4 of $500 million, people like it. If it gets a lot of views on Disney plus, that might just be enough, even if it doesn't make a big profit, for us to say, all right, this is a franchise. We're going to go ahead with it on the big screen in movies, and then they sell a lot of toys and then they become theme park attractions, and then they're really well watched and rewatched on Disney, and then they create sequels. And it's like it's a flywheel, as they like to call it in the media business. And if Disney stock is going to go back on the rise, they really need to have new hit franchises that are making money throughout the company and investors are confident are going to make money for years and years to come.

[Alex Osola]

That was Journal reporter Ben Fritz. Thanks, Ben.

[Ben Fritz]

Sure. My pleasure.

[Alex Osola]

And that's what's news for this Monday afternoon. Today's show was produced by Pierre Biennime with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening. Foreign. Law moves fast, and legal work still needs to stay ahead. LexisNexis protege legal AI workflows bring trusted authority and verified citations into every draft Private, secure, authoritative legal AI. LexisNexis.