WSJ What’s News — "Planning to Fly? War, Pricey Fuel and a Shutdown Are Making It Harder"

Date: March 22, 2026
Host: Luke Vargas
Guests: Ben Katz (Aviation Reporter), Ali Seider (Aviation Reporter)

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the complex and rapidly evolving landscape for air travel as the industry contends with three simultaneous crises: the US-Israeli war against Iran, surging fuel prices, and a partial government shutdown in the US. As millions of travelers look ahead to summer, host Luke Vargas draws on the expertise of WSJ aviation reporters Ben Katz and Ali Seider to discuss how these overlapping challenges are raising costs, creating risks, and seriously complicating the flying experience at home and abroad.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. War in Iran and Global Aviation Disruptions

(01:32 - 06:30)

• Regional Airspace Closures & Route Shifts:

  • The onset of US-Israeli strikes against Iran (since February 28) triggered the shutdown of key airspace throughout the Middle East:
    • "Airspace across the region shut off... Airlines shift capacity, Lufthansa, for example, increasing routes to Asia..." — Ben Katz (01:54)
  • Major Gulf airlines (Qatar Airways, Emirates, Etihad) have suffered, with some regaining only a partial schedule.
  • European and Australian airlines are trying to exploit these changes to fill travel gaps.

• Impact on Airlines and Passengers:

  • Airlines like British Airways and Cathay Pacific are canceling flights well into the summer.
  • Lufthansa is adjusting long-term strategy, redirecting aircraft to more viable markets.
  • "You’re starting to see the shift in the flow of aircraft, the flow of flights." — Ben Katz (02:38)

• Safety and Risk Assessment:

  • Despite a drop in missile/drone attacks since the start, perceived risks are growing:
    • "Footage of massive explosions at sites of energy infrastructure... the awareness of how dangerous the situation has been... is actually increasing..." — Luke Vargas (03:29)
  • There is no unified international standard for aviation risk in conflict zones. Airlines and governments make individualized decisions, weighing economic pressures and political factors.
    • "There isn’t an international standard... It’s really individual operators... making their own decisions." — Ben Katz (03:54)

• US Airlines' Situation:

  • American carriers are minimally impacted by regional fighting but are rerouting flights out of caution, most notably avoiding the Middle East and delaying return to Dubai.
    • "Once again, those flights are suspended. Those are pretty lucrative flights for the US Airlines..." — Ali Seider (05:17)

• Longer, Costlier Routes:

  • Severed corridors (e.g., Iraqi airspace) lead to longer flight times, greater fuel use, more crew hours, and higher operational costs.
    • "It adds potentially hours to a flight, which is additional costs in terms of crew, fuel..." — Ben Katz (05:51)

• “Sky Shrinking”:

  • Ongoing airspace closures (due to Russia’s war, now Iran) mean the skies are “shrinking,” making efficient routing harder and more expensive.
    • "It’s kind of like shrinking of the skies... airspace closures have been mounting for the last couple of years..." — Ali Seider (06:30)

2. Rising Fuel Prices and Booking Behavior

(07:49 – 10:50)

• Jet Fuel Cost Spike:

  • Jet fuel prices have "nearly doubled" in weeks, now the second-largest airline expense behind labor.
    • "The price of jet fuel has skyrocketed just the last couple of weeks, you know, nearly doubling." — Ali Seider (08:06)
  • This affects airlines globally, not just those with Middle East routes.

• Booking Patterns & Consumer Behavior:

  • Travel demand remains strong, with travelers rushing to book before prices potentially rise further.

    • "There’s almost this fear of higher prices... starting to translate into people pulling the trigger now on trips..." — Luke Vargas (08:27)

  • Airline CEOs remain "optimistic" amid high demand; they expect to pass costs onto consumers as fare hikes.

    • "For now, most of the airline CEOs are projecting a lot of optimism... demand remains high, high fuel prices for airlines are manageable." — Ali Seider (08:38)

  • Notably, Natasha Konova (JP Morgan) advised on WSJ’s Take on the Week to buy summer flights early:

    • Quote: "Whoever is planning summer vacations, you have to buy your tickets today. Please do not wait until May because the prices are already much, much higher." — Natasha Konova, JP Morgan (Quoted at 09:36)

• International Airline Cutbacks and Strategic Reductions:

  • Some airlines (e.g., SAS, Air New Zealand) are already canceling flights, citing inability to pass new fuel surcharges entirely to passengers.
    • "They announced... they’re having to scrap hundreds of flights because of the cost of fuel." — Ben Katz (09:51)
    • "We don’t think our customers will be able to... pick up the entire cost of this." — Ben Katz (10:11)

3. US Government Shutdown and Passenger Experience

(10:50 – 12:18)

• TSA Staffing and Security Delays:

  • The partial DHS shutdown means TSA security workers are going unpaid, leading to absenteeism and long lines at some airports.

    • "We’ve seen really long lines at TSA as the Department of Homeland Security is in the midst of a government shutdown... some of them are calling out or even quitting." — Ali Seider (10:50)

  • The problem is unpredictable, with “localized hotspots” popping up unexpectedly:

    • "One airport will just be terrible, or a couple of airports around the country and everywhere else is totally fine... it’s pretty difficult to predict in advance where the trouble spots might be." — Ali Seider (11:08)

  • Stress for travelers is increasing, especially as shutdown continues.

• US Airlines' Exposure to Fuel Prices:

  • Unlike European carriers, most US airlines stopped hedging against fuel spikes years ago (notable exception: Southwest, until recently).
    • "The protection for US Airlines is really their capacity. How much are they going to fly and charge for tickets?" — Ali Seider (11:50)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the “Shrinking of the Skies”:

  • "Airspace closures have been kind of mounting for the last couple of years. This conflict is coming as the skies had already been smaller as airlines navigate these conflict hotspots." — Ali Seider (06:30)

• On Risk and Safety:

  • "There isn’t an international standard... What we’re seeing is really individual operators, individual airlines, individual governments making their own decisions." — Ben Katz (03:54)

• On Booking Early:

  • "Whoever is planning summer vacations, you have to buy your tickets today. Please do not wait until May because the prices are already much, much higher." — Natasha Konova, JP Morgan (09:36, quoted by Ali Seider)

• On US Flyers and Politics:

  • "US airline flyers are kind of caught in the crosshairs of our political situation... Some airports are terrible, others are fine. The problem is you can’t really predict." — Ali Seider (10:50)

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Timestamp | Topic / Quote Highlight | |-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:32 | Introduction of aviation reporters, Ben Katz and Ali Seider | | 01:54 | Impact of the war on Middle East airspace and global aviation shifts (Ben Katz) | | 03:40 | Increased perception of danger and lack of standardized international risk protocol (Ben Katz) | | 05:06 | US airline adjustments and sustained suspensions of lucrative Middle East routes (Ali Seider) | | 06:30 | “Shrinking of the skies” due to successive airspace closures (Ali Seider) | | 08:06 | Jet fuel prices nearly doubling, squeezing airline margins (Ali Seider) | | 08:38 | Demand remains high; airlines optimistic but will pass along costs (Ali Seider) | | 09:36 | JP Morgan’s Natasha Konova advises booking summer tickets now due to price surges (quoted on podcast) | | 09:51 | International airlines cutting flights; inability to pass rising costs fully to customers (Ben Katz) | | 10:50 | US government shutdown causing TSA delays; unpredictable airport experience for travelers (Ali Seider) | | 11:50 | US airlines' exposure to unhedged fuel prices; strategy now relies on adjusting capacity and pricing (Ali Seider) |

Recap

• War in Iran is shutting down major air routes and drastically reshaping global aviation patterns, affecting particularly Europe–Asia–Africa travel.
• Jet fuel prices have spiked, squeezing margins and beginning to force flight cancellations and schedule reductions in some international markets.
• A partial shutdown of the US Department of Homeland Security is creating unpredictable and stressful experiences at American airports due to TSA staffing shortfalls.
• US carriers, no longer hedging fuel prices, will likely pass increasing costs directly onto travelers, making early booking advisable.
• There is no coordinated international protocol for aviation risk management in conflict zones; each carrier and government acts independently.
• Demand for air travel remains strong, but questions loom over how long passengers can absorb higher costs before curtailing plans.

For further context on energy markets and the knock-on effects of rising oil prices, listen to WSJ’s “Take on the Week” episode featuring Natasha Konova of JP Morgan, as mentioned during this episode (09:36).