Revised Job Data Show U.S. Labor Market Weaker Than Previously Reported

Summary

---

WSJ What’s News (PM Edition)

Episode: Revised Job Data Show U.S. Labor Market Weaker Than Previously Reported

Date: September 9, 2025
Host: Alex Osola
Podcast: The Wall Street Journal – What’s News

---

Overview

This episode of WSJ’s “What’s News” explores stunning new revisions to U.S. jobs data that reveal the labor market has been much weaker than previously thought, as well as how rising inflation is impacting household incomes and deepening inequality. The show also covers breaking geopolitical tensions around an Israeli strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar, the latest deadly attack in Ukraine, and Apple’s unveiling of the thinner iPhone Air.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Job Growth Revisions: Market Implications

Timestamps: [00:56] – [03:27]

• Major Data Revision:
  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) slashed previous estimates, finding 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months ending March 2025—cutting official figures by more than half.

  • Key Insight:
    “It’s very big. Last year was quite big, too… still significant downward revision to job growth.” — Justin Lehart, [01:56]

• Why Such a Large Revision?

  • Pandemic-related distortions still disrupt accurate job market measurements.
  • Discrepancies between employer reports to BLS vs. tax authorities.
  • Problems with non-responses and capturing the high churn (businesses opening/closing).
    • Quote:
      “A lot of what is happening seems to be distortions that we’re still dealing with surrounding the pandemic.” — Justin Lehart, [02:14]

• Implications for the Fed & Economy:

  • While the data is old, it points to a weaker labor market and may lead the Fed to become more dovish.
  • “We do know that the job market has deteriorated in the last several months… simply weaker now than it was.” — Justin Lehart, [03:04]

• Political Fallout:

  • The White House is preparing a report criticizing the BLS, a highly unusual move targeting typically non-partisan data collection.

---

2. Inflation’s Impact on Household Incomes

Timestamps: [03:54] – [06:42]

• Income Stagnation:
  New Census Bureau data reveal that after adjusting for inflation, median household income in 2024 ($83,730) was essentially unchanged from 2023—erasing wage gains.

  • Market Reaction:
    Despite labor market concerns, stocks closed at record highs boosted by rate-cut optimism.

• Who Was Hit Hardest?

  • High-Income Households: Saw real income growth.
  • Median & Low-Income Households: Stagnation or decline.
  • Racial Gaps: Black Americans’ incomes fell, while Hispanic and Asian households rose and white incomes stayed flat—widening racial income disparities.
  • Gender Gap:
    “Wage growth for men was 3.7% in 2024. But income growth for women was basically statistically insignificant.” — Konrad Futseer, [05:40]

• Broader Trend:

  • Since 2019, real median income has not risen––a 5-year period of stagnation as inflation wiped out gains.
  • “Basically it’s an economy where a lot of people didn’t really get ahead financially because of inflation. And it helps us explain why people feel bad about the economy.” — Konrad Futseer, [05:48; 06:18]

---

3. Israeli Attack on Hamas Leadership in Qatar

Timestamps: [07:31] – [11:21]

• The Incident:

  • Israel’s air force struck Hamas’s senior leadership in Doha, Qatar—a rare extension of the conflict beyond Gaza, hitting a U.S. ally and key intermediary.
  • Qatar’s government condemned the attack, with casualties among Hamas and Qatari security forces.

• U.S. Response:

  • The U.S. was informed before the strike; President Trump notified Qatari officials and spoke to both leaders post-attack. The White House signaled it wants hostages released and the war ended.

• Diplomatic Fallout:

  • Mediator Reaction:
    Regional mediators believe the strike destroys prospects for ongoing peace talks.
    • Quote:
      “They just think that this is unfortunately the end of diplomacy road for them.” — Summer Said, [10:19]
    • The perception is that no nation can host Hamas for talks without risk, undermining any mediation process.
    • Trust in U.S. & Israel Damaged:
      “For them to have this kind of attack as they’re negotiating… is a quite strong hit to the credibility of either the US or Israel.” — Summer Said, [09:41]

---

4. Other Headlines

Timestamps: [11:21] – [12:40]

• Ukraine:
  A Russian glide bomb struck civilians collecting pensions in eastern Ukraine, killing at least 23—one of the deadliest attacks of the war. The strike comes amid stalled negotiations and increased civilian targeting since a Trump–Putin meeting.

• Apple Product Launch:
  Apple announced its thin iPhone Air, starting at $999 and replacing the Plus line. The move is seen as strategic amid rising tariffs and a lag in new AI features.

  • Industry Note:
    Apple is using new features and models to justify price hikes, sidestepping direct blame on Trump’s tariffs:
    “Touting new models and phone capabilities as a reason for price increases will allow Apple to avoid blaming President Trump’s tariffs…” — Alex Osola, [12:16]

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

1. On Revised Jobs Data

   “It’s very big. And last year was quite big, too… still significant downward revision to job growth.”
   — Justin Lehart, [01:56]

2. On Ongoing Data Distortions

   “A lot of what is happening seems to be distortions that we’re still dealing with surrounding the pandemic.”
   — Justin Lehart, [02:14]

3. On Income Inequality

   “Black Americans saw their income go down last year even as Hispanic and Asian incomes rose and white incomes essentially stayed flat. So you do see this widening racial income gap.”
   — Konrad Futseer, [05:05]

4. On Stagnant Incomes

   “If we compare 2019 to 2024, the median real income adjusted for inflation basically didn’t change.”
   — Konrad Futseer, [05:48]

5. On Impact to Peace Talks

   “Which other country would feel more comfortable having Hamas leaders showing up and having talks if they know that the possibility of an attack is right there and it’s real?”
   — Summer Said, [10:44]

---

Summary Timeline (Timestamps)

• [00:56] – U.S. job revisions: weaker-than-reported job creation
• [01:56] – Expert view on scale & source of revisions
• [03:54] – Stock market, inflation, and wage stagnation explained
• [04:49] – Which Americans suffered most from inflation; income & racial gaps
• [07:31] – Israel strikes Hamas in Qatar; wider regional and diplomatic fallout
• [11:21] – Russian strike on Ukrainian civilians; Apple’s iPhone Air launch

---

Tone & Language

The episode is factual, urgent, and analytic—refreshingly candid about flaws in economic data, growing inequality, and the fragility of both U.S. domestic confidence and global diplomatic efforts.

---

This summary provides a clear breakdown of all key reporting, analysis, and commentary featured in the episode, with quoted highlights and timestamp references for further exploration.

Transcript

[Ford BlueCruise Announcer]

Ford Bluecruise Hands free highway driving takes the work out of being behind the wheel, allowing you to relax and reconnect while also staying in control. Enjoy the drive in Bluecruise enabled vehicles like the F150 Explorer and Mustang Mach E available feature on equipped vehicles Terms apply. Does not replace safe driving. See Ford.com BlueCruise for more details.

[Alex Osola]

An Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar creates a challenge to peace negotiations in the Middle East.

[Summer Said]

Arab mediators think that this is unfortunately the end of diplomacy road for them if Doha suspend the talks. Which other country would feel more comfortable having Hamas leaders showing up and having talks if they know that the possibility of an attack is right there and it's real?

[Alex Osola]

Plus, a revised jobs report shows a significantly weaker picture of the U.S. labor market than earlier reports indicated. And inflation erased U.S. income gains last year, but it didn't affect everyone equally. It's Tuesday, September 9th. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. We begin this evening with the US labor market. The pace of job growth was likely significantly weaker than reported from early 2024 through early this year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said today that the US added 911,000 fewer jobs over the 12 months that ended in March, trimming by a bit more than half the 1.79 million jobs the official data now show. For more, I'm joined now by WSJ economics reporter Justin lehart. Justin, is this a typical amount for a revision? It seems kind of big.

[Justin Lehart]

Yeah, it's very big. And last year was quite big, too. You know, this is preliminary. A lot of people think that it won't be quite as bad as what it showed. That's what happened last year, but still significant downward revision to job growth.

[Alex Osola]

Why did we see such a drastic revision of the data?

[Justin Lehart]

A lot of what is happening seems to be distortions that we're still dealing with surrounding the pandemic. So it makes it still harder for the Labor Department to measure what's going on with the job market. In this case, part of the problem was apparently employers were reporting one thing to the BLS and then saying something different to tax authority. They also had a problem with the people who weren't responding to their survey. And then there are always lots of new businesses being formed. There's always lots of businesses that are shutting down. It is hard to keep up with that, particularly at turning points in the economy. And these distortions from the pandemic may still be at play there.

[Alex Osola]

I know this data was a little bit older, but what does it tell us about our current moment in the economy?

[Justin Lehart]

It probably doesn't weigh on the Fed as much as you might think because it doesn't say anything about what's happened recently, but probably does make the Fed a little more dovish than they were already. But we do know that the job market has deteriorated in the last several months, and it just seems that the job market is simply weaker now than it was.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Justin lehart. According to people familiar with the matter, the White House is preparing a report laying out alleged shortcomings in BLS data. This comes amid an unprecedented level of criticism by a presidential administration at what is normally seen as the routine nonpartisan job of compiling crucial US Economic data.

[Foreign Correspondent]

Foreign.

[Alex Osola]

Major US Stock indexes closed at new records today as investor optimism for rate cuts outweighed concerns about a slowing job market. The S&P 500 added about a quarter of a percent and the Dow and the Nasdaq were both up roughly 0.4%. It's the first time since December 2024 that all three indexes finished at new highs on the same day. Inflation ate into Americans wage gains last year, leaving household incomes little changed. That's according to new data from the Census Bureau out today. In its annual report card of households financial well being, it said that inflation adjusted median household income last year was $83,730, not statistically different from the 2023 estimate. WSJ Economics reporter Konrad Futseer is here now with more. Conrad Fierce, Was this felt universally across the population or did some groups see bigger changes?

[Konrad Futseer]

So there's different stories for different parts of the population, right? Higher income Americans, as you can probably expect, did pretty well compared to the rest of the country. They saw their income grow. Even adjusted for inflation, typical American median income didn't grow, or at least didn't grow by much. And same with the lower end of the spectrum. So you see this widening income gap and then you see other differences too. For example, black Americans saw their income go down last year even as Hispanic and Asian incomes rose and white incomes essentially stayed flat. So you do see this widening racial income gap. And then the other thing that's noteworthy is that incomes for men rose faster than income for women. We know that men make more money than women on average, and that gap actually widened last year. So wage growth for men was 3.7% in 2024. But income growth for women was basically statistically insignificant.

[Alex Osola]

This data is obviously from last year, but what does it show us about the sort of broader trend for income before?

[Konrad Futseer]

What it basically tells us is what kind of economy Trump inherited when he became president this year. And basically it's an economy where a lot of people didn't really get ahead financially because of inflation. So if we compare 2019 to 2024, the median real income adjusted for inflation basically didn't change. So that's five years where people didn't see their real income grow because inflation was so high. And it helps us explain why people feel bad about the economy, which they keep telling us in surveys. It doesn't really tell us anything about where we are right now because this is 2024, but it's still a bad sign. We know that the economy has weakened since the spring, and we know that the labor market's in bad shape. We know that prices are going up, that inflation's picking up again. And we now know that even before all this started, people were already kind of like treading water and staying in place financially. And that's not a good position to be in.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Konrad Putz here. Thanks, Konrad.

[Konrad Futseer]

Thanks for having me.

[Alex Osola]

Coming up, what the Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar means for peace negotiations. That's after the break.

[Finra Advertiser 1]

So you're about to make a trade based on a friend's text, but which u do you listen to is it.

[Finra Advertiser 2]

We could buy a house in Tulum.

[Finra Advertiser 1]

Get optioning those options, we could lose everything. Or let's do a little research, get your head in the trade and make the investment decision that's right for you. Learn [e-mail] TradeSmart.

[Alex Osola]

Israel's air force carried out a strike on Hamas's senior political leadership in Doha, Qatar, today. The attack brings Israel's fight against the group to a Gulf nation that is a US Partner and a mediator. In talks to resolve the war in Gaza, Hamas said that five of its members had been killed, and Qatar said that a member of its security forces had also been killed. The emirate, which hosts America's most important air base in the region, condemned the attack. White House press secretary Caroline Levitt said this afternoon that the US Military notified the Trump administration that Israel was attacking Hamas, prompting President Trump to order US Envoy Steve Witkoff to inform the Qataris about the strike. Levitt said that Trump spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani after the attack. She added that the President wants all hostages released and for the war to end.

[Finra Advertiser 2]

Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a sovereign nation and close ally of the United States that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker peace does not advance Israel or America's goals. However, eliminating Hamas, who have profited off the misery of those living in Gaza, is a worthy goal.

[Alex Osola]

I'm joined now by WSJ senior Middle east correspondent Summer said. Summer, what do we know about this attack and what the impact was so far?

[Summer Said]

What we know is the night before, Hamas had met with senior Qatari officials who were telling them to deal positively with the US Outline to end the war and release all hostages. Hamas then told the mediators that they'd be meeting the next day to discuss the outline and negotiate with the members and get back to them. And in the middle of them having that meeting that includes a number of senior Hamas officials, the attack took place. The picture is very muddy when it comes to who got impacted from Hamas leadership. Hamas is saying it's a failed attempt on their leadership, but yet they're not giving us more details on that.

[Alex Osola]

Even without the sort of granular detail, as you mentioned, how significant a hit does this seem to be for Hamas?

[Summer Said]

Well, the issue for months now when it comes to negotiations to end the war or get a partial deal or a multi phase deal is has been always the lack of trust in what the US is offering for Hamas. They've always wanted very strong guarantees to end the war. So for them to have this kind of attack as they're negotiating a response to the latest proposal or outline they have received is a quite strong hit to the credibility of either the US or Israel.

[Alex Osola]

What does the attack mean for broader diplomacy in the region?

[Summer Said]

The issue is when you speak to the mediators, they don't take it as an attack on just Hamas, they take it as an attack on a mediating country. So as a mediator, they take it basically as from now on, no country hosting Hamas is safe and you cannot have a reliable mediation process. The other factor in this mix is Qatar is a major US ally and it could be a wake up call for them at the end of the day that are we safe or immune now? Can we continue negotiating a deal with Hamas if there is an attack on our soil? So the way they view it from me speaking to Arab mediators, they just think that this is unfortunately the end of diplomacy road for them. Can they feel safe in the future to have Hamas either sitting in Cairo or in Doha or if Doha suspend the talks. Which other country would feel more comfortable having Hamas leaders showing up and having talks if they know that the possibility of an attack is right there and it's real?

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ senior Middle east correspondent Summer said. A Russian glide bomb killed at least 23 people today and wounded over a dozen more in an attack in eastern Ukraine. Most of the dead were elderly people who had lined up at a mobile post office to receive their pensions. It was one of the deadliest strikes against civilians in the war so far. The attack came as negotiations to bring a halt to the fighting, which is well into its fourth year, have stalled. Moscow has intensified strikes on civilian areas in Ukraine in the weeks since Russian President Vladimir Putin met with President Trump in Alaska to discuss a route to ending the war. And finally Apple unveiled a thinner iPhone Air model today, its first new smartphone in years. The company hopes the device will excite customers after Apple has struggled to roll out new AI features. The thinner iPhone Air, which will cost $999, will replace the plus model iPhones from prior years. The ultra thin phone is a precursor to a foldable iPhone, which the company is expected to produce as soon as next year. The iPhone 17 base model will continue to cost $799. Apple eliminated a lower storage version of the Pro, so customers that want the cheapest Pro model will have to buy a version with more storage that starts at $1,099. Touting new models and phone capabilities as a reason for price increases will allow Apple to avoid blaming President Trump's tariffs, continuing Chief Executive Tim Cook's pattern of deftly handling the president's see sawing trade policies. And that's what's news for this Tuesday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Pierre Bienname and Rodney Davis, with supervising producer Michael Kosmides. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.