Special Election in Georgia Is a Test of Trump’s Base

Summary

---

WSJ What’s News: Special Election in Georgia Is a Test of Trump’s Base

Date: March 10, 2026
Host: Alex Osoleff
Guests: Sabrina Siddiqui, Aaron Zitner, Cameron McWhorter, Matt Fowler, Rebecca Pichotto

---

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the intersection of U.S. military actions abroad, volatile oil markets, and a high-profile special election in Georgia’s 14th congressional district—widely considered a stronghold of Trump’s “MAGA” base. With Marjorie Taylor Greene’s recent resignation and the ongoing war with Iran generating domestic and international consequences, the show explores how issues of foreign policy, economic pressure, and party loyalties play out among conservative voters. Additional segments cover Medicare overpayments, ExxonMobil's legal move, housing market trends, and new legislation affecting single-family rental developers.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Conflict with Iran & Market Impact

• Military Escalation:
  • ([01:15–01:50]) Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declares Iran is “badly losing” and promises ongoing military operations until “decisively defeated.”
  • ([01:40]) Matt Fowler, WSJ reporter (not the same as the student), confirms “the most intense day of strikes inside Iran” in terms of military force deployed.
  • Tehran and oil facilities are heavily bombarded. Iran's foreign minister rules out negotiations. Over 1,200 Iranian civilian deaths are confirmed, and mass displacement is reported in Lebanon.
• Domestic Military Costs:
  • 140 U.S. troops injured, 8 severely, since conflict began 11 days prior.
• Financial Volatility:
  • U.S. stock indexes barely change ([01:50–02:00]), but oil tanks as Brent crude drops 11% to under $88/barrel, awaiting G7 strategic oil reserves decision.
  • The war and its uncertainties are linked to everyday costs and business strategies for Americans.

2. Georgia Special Election: MAGA Identity & Foreign Policy

• District Overview:

  • ([04:07–04:14]) Georgia’s 14th District—called the “heart of MAGA” by Cameron McWhorter—is deeply conservative, but economic anxiety cuts across political lines.
  • Two leading Republicans:
    • Clay Fuller (District Attorney, Trump-endorsed)
    • Colton Moore (self-defined firebrand)
  • A Democrat, Sean Harris, may lead initially due to low turnout, but the eventual winner is expected to be a Republican.

• Voter Priorities:

  • ([05:05]) Foreign policy mentioned by working-class residents as secondary to economic issues like “the grocery store and how much things cost…whether my kids are ever going to be able to buy a house.”
  • Skepticism of foreign wars is strong, shaped by past sacrifices among local families without perceived benefit.
  • A key Republican fear: war exhaustion may depress turnout in even the reddest districts, potentially hurting the party statewide.

• Trump’s Base & Military Intervention:

  • ([06:16]) Aaron Zitner highlights a growing divide within MAGA:

    “If ‘Make America Great’ meant anything, it meant a rejection not just of Obama and Joe Biden, but a rejection of George Bush, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Paul Ryan—that old Republican Party. And now here we are.”

  • Despite general Republican unity behind Trump and the Iran war (about 80% support), the dissenting 20% is unprecedented and signals an identity crisis.
  • Polls suggest MAGA voters feel Trump “has taken his eye off the ball”—he was elected for “business savvy to improve our economic lives,” but is instead “putting all his attention elsewhere.”

• Voter Perspective:

  • ([07:33–07:49]) Matt Fowler, 21, highlights youth disillusionment:

    “He [Colton Moore]’s not just going to be a yes man just because the president says something.”
    “It feels like [Trump’s] just completely gone against everything he stood for… He was, ‘no more wars’… then we go and attack Iran. …It’s not our war. …It’s Israel’s war.” (07:49)

  • Foreign policy is his “second most important issue,” and he regrets his 2020 Trump vote.

• Implications for the GOP:

  • ([08:14]) Zitner cautions against overreliance on current poll numbers; ground troop deployment, further economic pain, or rising gas prices could shift opinions and voter turnout.

3. White House & Administration Response

• ([08:54]) White House labels Iran action “as America First as it gets,” arguing gas price surges are just “short term disruptions.”

---

Notable Quotes and Moments

• On MAGA’s Identity Crisis:

  “This isn’t just an issue of foreign policy for MAGA, it’s an issue of identity.”
  — Aaron Zitner ([06:16])

• On Voter Apathy and Economic Discontent:

  “A lot of young men from that area went off to fight and they didn’t see a lot of result from all that hard work and in some cases, great sacrifice.”
  — Cameron McWhorter ([05:44])

• Student Disillusionment:

  “It feels like [Trump’s] just completely gone against everything he stood for… He was, ‘no more wars’… then we go and attack Iran.”
  — Matt Fowler ([07:49])

• Analyst Oversight:

  “He was elected to bring prices down… now he’s putting all his attention elsewhere.”
  — Aaron Zitner ([07:18])

---

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [01:15] – Defense Secretary: Iran is “badly losing”
• [01:40] – Heavy U.S. strikes in Iran; civilian and military toll recapped
• [02:00–02:30] – Oil markets plunge, economic uncertainty
• [04:07] – Introduction to Georgia’s 14th District special election
• [05:05] – Local voter priorities: economy over foreign wars
• [06:16] – MAGA’s deepening identity split over interventionism
• [07:33–07:49] – Young voter Matt Fowler on Trump, war, and candidate choice
• [08:14–08:46] – Implications for Republican midterms, polling caution
• [08:54] – White House defends “America First” military action

---

Additional Political and Economic Headlines

• Medicare Overpayments ([09:54]):

  • Report finds average beneficiary paid $200 more in premiums due to private Medicare Advantage plan practices; industry disputes methodology.

• ExxonMobil State Switch ([10:30]):

  • Exxon plans to move its legal headquarters to Texas, citing protection from “shareholder abuse.”

• Housing Market Update ([10:50–12:56]):

  • Home sales rebound 1.7% in February.
  • New Senate bill could force large single-family rental investors to sell properties after seven years ([11:58]):
    • Industry is alarmed, warns of reduced supply and higher prices.

    “This seven year sales provision would effectively dismantle the single family rental industry for the largest institutional investors…”
    — Rebecca Pichotto ([11:58])

  • Senate vote expected soon; provision may impact housing affordability strategies.

---

Tone and Style

• Journalistic, sober, and concise, with an undercurrent of urgency regarding the interconnectedness of war, economics, and elections.
• The guests and reporters communicate with realism about the complexities and consequences for both voters and policymakers.

---

In Summary

This edition of WSJ What’s News offers a comprehensive look at how America’s foreign adventures reverberate domestically—from the polling booth in Georgia’s MAGA heartland to oil markets, the housing sector, and voter psychology. The special election in Georgia becomes a lens on Trump’s shifting base, economic priorities, and the sustainability of populist identity politics in the face of foreign entanglements and rising living costs.

Transcript

[Kanawha Animal Rescue Worker]

In 2024, a truck crashed into Kanawha Animal Rescue where I work. 146 of our dogs needed homes fast. We asked for help on Facebook. Our story spread through WhatsApp messages and Instagram reposts.

[Alex Osoleff]

Immediately.

[Kanawha Animal Rescue Worker]

People stepped up and just six hours later, every dog was fostered. I'll never forget how our community showed up for us.

[Alex Osoleff]

Learn how over 3.5 billion people. Connect to what Matters with [e-mail] Mun Tehran experiences some of the heaviest bombardment since the start of the conflict, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says Iran is, quote, badly losing. Plus, oil prices slide on, investors hope for the release of strategic oil reserves and what today's special election in Georgia shows about what MAGA voters think of the Trump administration's military operations.

[Aaron Zitner]

This isn't just an issue of foreign policy for maga, it's an issue of identity. If Make America Great meant anything, it meant a rejection not just of Obama and Joe Biden, but a rejection of George Bush, Mitt Romney, that old Republican Party. And now here we are.

[Alex Osoleff]

It's Tuesday, March 10th. I'm Alex Osoleff for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world. In a press conference this morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran is badly losing and that the military operation would continue until Iran is decisively defeated.

[Matt Fowler]

Today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran. The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes.

[Alex Osoleff]

Tehran is experiencing some of the heaviest bombardment since the start of the war. Recent strikes on oil facilities around the outskirts of the city caused huge dark clouds of smoke. Earlier, Iran's foreign minister said negotiations with the US Were off the table. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said the US didn't expect Iran to declare that it has surrendered to end the conflict. A human rights group said that more than 1,200 Iranian civilians were confirmed killed in the war, while the UN says that more than 667,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon. Israel has issued evacuation orders in Lebanon as it fights Hezbollah there. The Pentagon said today that about 140 U.S. troops have been injured since the conflict began 11 days ago, with eight of those people listed as severely wounded. Major U.S. indexes ended almost unchanged today, with the S&P 500 and the Dow dropping slightly and the Nasdaq rising less than 0.1%. In another dramatic day in oil markets, Brent crude futures dropped 11% to under $88 a barrel. Oil has been selling off since hitting a peak Sunday night. Traders are waiting to hear the outcome of a G7 meeting on potentially tapping strategic oil reserves. Speaking of oil, we want to know how volatile energy prices are affecting you and your business, your profit and your pricing strategy. What does it mean for your plans today, next week and later this year? Send a voice memo to wnpodsj.com or leave a voicemail at 212-416-4328. Leave your full name and location and we might use it on the show. Let's turn now to how the war with Iran is playing with American voters. Marjorie Taylor Greene's former district is holding a special election today to determine who will finish her term. She resigned in Washington after a high profile split with President Trump. What do voters in Georgia's 14th congressional district think of the Trump administration's military campaigns? And what could the race say about Trump's support nationally? Our national Politics reporter Sabrina Siddiqui spoke with WSJ reporters Aaron zitner and Cameron McWhorter to find out.

[Sabrina Siddiqui]

Cam Georgia's 14th congressional district is in the northwest corner of the state, a couple hours drive from Atlanta. What's this district like?

[Cameron McWhorter]

I would say in many ways it's the heart of MAGA in the United States. It is very pro Trump and has been for a long time. There are two leading Republican candidates, both who claim to be more MAGA than the other. One is Clay Fuller. He's a district attorney. He has gotten the endorsement of the president. Then there's another candidate named Colton Moore, who's very much a firebrand. It's likely in this low turnout special election that a Democrat, Sean Harris, might actually get the most votes. But then there will be a runoff. And in that runoff, everyone expects whoever wins this slugfest between the Republicans to win.

[Sabrina Siddiqui]

Marjorie Taylor Greene, who used to hold this seat, opposed Trump's foreign interventions. Is that issue especially important for voters here?

[Cameron McWhorter]

The issue of foreign policy has come up with voters that I spoke with in the sense of I'm concerned about going to the grocery store and how much things cost. I'm concerned about employment. I'm concerned about whether my kids are ever going to be able to buy a house. So what are we doing in Venezuela? Working class to poor people live in this district and they want answers about the economy and the future of the country. And they are not interested in foreign wars, particularly the wars in the Middle east that we've been involved in for decades. A lot of young men from that area went off to fight and they didn't see a lot of result from all that hard work and in some cases, great sacrifice. So the bigger question, and it's an important one for Republicans heading into the midterms here in Georgia, is will it suppress turnout from a very strong Republican area? And if it does, that's very bad for Republicans statewide.

[Sabrina Siddiqui]

Aaron, have you seen a shift among Trump supporters nationally in their thinking around these military interventions?

[Aaron Zitner]

Well, this isn't just an issue of foreign policy for maga. It's an issue of identity. If Make America Great meant anything, it meant a rejection not just of Obama and Joe Biden, but a rejection of George Bush, mitt Romney, John McCain, Paul Ryan, that old Republican Party. And now here we are. And remember, we bombed Nigeria lately. We've bombed Yemen last year. We've blown up boats in the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. And now Iran. The war with Iran is unpopular almost every poll finds, but Republicans, they're pretty solidly behind this. Maybe 80% are saying they're okay with this for now. That means that 20% aren't. And that's unusual because Republicans are usually very unified behind the president. Polling is abundantly clear, including our polling at the Wall Street Journal, that voters feel Donald Trump has taken his eye off the ball. He was elected to bring prices down. He was the businessman president elected for business savvy to improve our economic lives. And he's putting all his attention elsewhere.

[Sabrina Siddiqui]

We spoke to one voter, Matt Fowler, a College student who's 21 years old, who voted early for Colton Moore, one of the many candidates in this race.

[Matt Fowler]

He's not just going to be a yes man just because the president says something.

[Sabrina Siddiqui]

He calls foreign policy his second most important issue as a voter. And he regrets voting for President Trump in 2020 because of the conflict with Iran.

[Matt Fowler]

It feels like he's just completely gone against everything he stood for in that respect. He was, no more wars. And then first thing we do is we go and attack Iran. That's mainly the big thing that I'm against. I think we should have no involvement in that conflict because it's not our war. We have nothing. We don't really have anything to do with it. It's Israel's war.

[Sabrina Siddiqui]

Aaron, what are you keeping an eye on as far as how this could affect the midterms?

[Aaron Zitner]

This is a time to keep in mind that things are fluid. I wouldn't hold on to any polling numbers right now. We start putting troops on the ground, that changes the situation entirely. What's going to happen with gas prices that are surely going to influence public opinion if those turn into be negative developments for the United States, if this war just turns more people off and gets them to say, you know, I just don't feel like voting this time, that's a problem for the Republican Party.

[Sabrina Siddiqui]

Aaron and Cam, thank you so much for sharing your insights. We really appreciate having both of you here.

[Aaron Zitner]

Good to be with you, Sabrina.

[Cameron McWhorter]

All right.

[Sabrina Siddiqui]

And the White House responded saying the Iran military action is, quote, as America first as it gets and that the recent increases in oil and gas prices are short term disruptions that will end when the war does.

[Alex Osoleff]

Coming up, the latest home sale numbers and a new Senate bill that's got some housing developers on edge. That's after the break.

[CLA Representative]

At cla, we're in your corner and on it. We coach tax strategies and little league first base. We help you adopt AI data tools and we adopt Rescue's name. Buddy, we walked your factory floor and jogged the local 5k, though sometimes we walk that too. Wherever you're coming from, we're right there with you. Wherever you're going, we'll get you there. CLA CPAs consultants and advisors. Learn [e-mail] with you.

[Alex Osoleff]

Congressional investigators published a report today on Medicare. The report found that the average Medicare beneficiary paid more than $200 in extra premiums last year because of alleged overpayments to private Medicare Advantage plans. Some health insurer practices helped lead to the higher premiums. The report said such controversial practices include adding diagnoses to trigger higher payments. A spokesman for a health insurance industry trade group said the committee's findings were based on flawed data and methodology and shouldn't dictate policy. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman has filed to take public his hedge fund firm and a new investment fund. It's an attempted do over of a botched 2024 offering of the investment fund and a bold bet to capitalize on his social media fame. And ExxonMobil plans to move its legal home to Texas from New Jersey, where it's been incorporated since 1882. Exxon CEO Darren woods told the Wall Street Journal that the move is about protecting the company from what he called shareholder abuse. That's a reference to shareholder lawsuits that companies consider frivolous but popping up in certain venues. Wood said Exxon hasn't had any issues with New Jersey, but believes Texas is more business friendly. New data from the national association of Realtors out today showed that home sales rose 1.7% in February, rebounding from the previous month's big drop. Analysts expected a decrease. Helping sales were mortgage rates that slipped below 6%, but rates rose back above 6% after the Iran war began. News Corp. Owner of The Journal, operates realtor.com under license from the Realtors group. We've been talking on the show in recent weeks about how lawmakers are trying to make housing more affordable. Now it's coming with a new twist. Senators inserted a provision in their latest housing bill that would require large single family home investors to sell off their rental properties seven years after building them. Rebecca Pichotto covers residential real estate for the Journal and she says the industry expects a significant impact if this becomes law.

[Kanawha Animal Rescue Worker]

So this seven year sales provision would effectively dismantle the single family rental industry for the largest institutional investors and real estate investment trusts. Investors are more reluctant to fund new construction or new homes that they expect to be rental housing but will effectively have to be sold within seven years of them being built. The build to rent developer community. They freaked out. So they have been forcefully in kind of an all out sprint to negotiate this out of the bill.

[Alex Osoleff]

The provision is part of a housing package that supporters say would make home ownership more accessible. Some analysts say this new provision would actually reduce new supply, leading to higher rents and home prices.

[Kanawha Animal Rescue Worker]

The built to rent industry is kind of a niche sector, but it's growing. And for residents who can't necessarily afford homeownership, single family rental homes allow them access to nicer suburbs, good school systems that they couldn't afford to own in.

[Alex Osoleff]

The Senate is expected to vote on the bill as soon as this week. And that's what's news for this Tuesday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Pierre Biennime with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

[CLA Representative]

Model portfolios have evolved from a one size fits all solution. In a recent roundtable conversation, Jeffrey Saif of Blackrock and Alessio DeLongis of Invesco break down what's driving the next model moment, discussing how a deeper level of customization is producing a better alignment with investor goals and creating a practice differentiator for financial advisors.