WSJ What’s News: The Axis of Autocracies Lining Up for World War III Release Date: December 16, 2024
1. Introduction and Key Headlines
In this episode of WSJ What’s News, host Pierre Biename delves into significant global and domestic developments shaping the geopolitical landscape. The episode covers a range of topics, including a massive investment announcement by President-elect Donald Trump and SoftBank, escalating global conflicts hinting at a potential World War III, a tragic school shooting in Madison, Wisconsin, and shifting dynamics within the Democratic Party on Capitol Hill.
2. US and Global Political Developments
a. Trump and SoftBank’s $100 Billion Investment
At the heart of today’s headlines is the monumental announcement made by President-elect Donald Trump and SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son. The duo unveiled a plan for SoftBank to invest $100 billion in U.S. projects over the next four years. This investment aims to create 100,000 jobs focused on artificial intelligence and emerging technologies, with the goal of completing these initiatives by 2029, coinciding with the end of Trump’s term.
Notable Insights:
- Alex Leary, National Politics Reporter, emphasized the symbolic significance of this move:
“[...] $100 billion is a huge amount for no matter what company. And Trump heralded this as basically saying, ‘I’m back, America’s back and the economy’s gonna be great. Come invest with us.’”
(02:37)
b. Financial Feasibility and Future Implications
Pierre Biename raised a critical question regarding SoftBank's ability to manage this colossal investment, given that the company reportedly has only $30 billion in cash reserves.
Alex Leary responded:
“That's a very big question, a very big open question. [...] he's going to have to more funds in order to make this work.”
(03:15)
This leaves stakeholders and analysts pondering the sustainability and execution of such a substantial financial commitment.
c. Trump's Press Conference Highlights
Following the investment announcement, Trump held his first press conference since winning the election, addressing several key issues:
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Tariffs: Trump reaffirmed his stance on continuing the use of tariffs on imports globally.
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Potential Pardons: He hinted at the possibility of pardoning New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who is facing charges related to bribery, fraud, and campaign finance offenses.
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Syria’s Regime Change: Trump credited Turkey for the victory of Syrian rebels in overthrowing Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
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Mysterious Drones Over New Jersey: Addressing concerns about unexplained drones, Trump stated:
“The government knows what is happening. Look, our military knows where they took off from. If it's a garage, they can go right into that garage. They know where it came from and where it went and for some reason they don't want to comment and I think they'd be better off saying what it is.”
(04:17)
Trump did not confirm whether he had received a security briefing regarding these drone sightings.
3. Global Conflicts and the Rise of an Autocratic Axis
Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov provides an in-depth analysis of the shifting global power dynamics, highlighting the formation of an axis of autocracies comprising Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
a. Formation and Strengthening of the Autocratic Axis
Yaroslav explains that:
“Russia, Iran, North Korea, all three of these are actually militarily cooperating now. And then we have China [...] as a political protector, as an economic partner, and as a source of technology for all three of these nations.”
(07:09)
b. Historical Context and Turning Points
Rewinding a decade, Yaroslav notes that collaborations between these nations were sparse, with instances of cooperation against mutual threats like Iran’s nuclear ambitions and North Korea’s provocations. However, the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine marked a significant turning point, leading to increased cooperation between Russia and China as both nations perceived a weakening West.
“President Xi of China, President Putin of Russia really found this common ground with the idea that the west is weak. The west is inexorably losing its position as the dominant force in the world.”
(07:42)
c. Disunity within the West
The emergence of this autocratic bloc is further compounded by internal fractures within Western democracies. Yaroslav points out:
“There are cracks within the West [...] potential for more disputes over things like trade, but also defense with European and Asian partners.”
(08:45)
This disunity threatens collective action against rising autocratic powers and could embolden the axis in their global ambitions.
d. Escalation Towards Global Conflict
Yaroslav warns of the globalization of existing conflicts:
“We already have a conflict that is globalizing. [...] thousands of North Korean troops have come to join the fight, ... learning valuable lessons about how to fight against an American equipped military.”
(09:20)
He underscores the interconnectedness of regional wars, such as the destabilization in Syria and the ongoing war in Ukraine, which collectively signal the ominous beginnings of a larger global conflict.
e. US Defense Readiness
Assessing the US’s preparedness, Yaroslav highlights a concerning decline in defense spending compared to the Cold War era:
“Back then, the US was spending anything between 6 and 16% of the GDP on defense. Now it's about 3.5%.”
(10:07)
He also points out the hesitancy of global partners like India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to fully commit, leaving NATO and key allies like Australia, Japan, and South Korea as the primary supporters.
4. Domestic Issues
a. Madison School Shooting
Tragedy struck in Madison, Wisconsin, where at least two individuals were killed, and several others injured in a shooting at Abundant Life Christian School, a private K-12 institution.
Yaroslav Trofimov reflects on the long-lasting impact of such incidents:
“Every child, every person in that building is a victim and will be a victim forever. And these types of trauma don't just go away.”
(01:41)
The suspected shooter, believed to be a student, was found dead, adding another layer of complexity and sorrow to the event.
5. Capitol Hill Developments
a. Generational Shift within the Democratic Party
On Capitol Hill, a noteworthy power struggle is unfolding as millennial and Gen X Democrats vie to supplant the longstanding baby boomer leadership. A focal point of this tussle is the potential rise of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) to head the influential Oversight Committee.
Katie Stechferik, covering Congress for the Wall Street Journal, provides her perspective:
“If she were to win the slot over Gerry Connolly, [...] it would show that Democrats have an appetite for and restless for younger leaders, more progressive, bold vision that AOC has represented since she got here.”
(11:59)
b. Implications for Party Dynamics and Leadership
Katie further elaborates on the broader implications:
“This is part of the reflection [...] whether the Democrats will recalibrate their values and decide that seniority does matter less going forward when it comes to who is in charge and who's setting the direction for the party.”
(12:03)
This generational challenge tests the Democratic Party's willingness to embrace change and prioritize progressive leadership over traditional seniority.
6. Market Reactions and Other News
Pierre Biename touches upon the stock market’s reaction to the day's events:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down by 0.3%.
- The S&P 500 rose by 0.4% after experiencing a decline the previous week.
- The Nasdaq Composite surged by 1.2%, reaching a new record, buoyed by tech and fast-growing companies extending their year-end rally.
Additionally, developments in Damascus are highlighted, where Abu Mohammed al Jalani, leader of a major rebel group, promises reforms but acknowledges the ongoing turmoil and displacement caused by the civil war. Contrarily, Bashar al-Assad publicly addresses his ouster for the first time since his removal, defending his tenure and role until evacuation to Russia.
7. Conclusion
The episode paints a complex picture of a world grappling with emerging autocratic alliances, internal divisions within Western democracies, significant political and economic investments by key global players, and domestic challenges that continue to shape the national discourse. The convergence of these factors underscores the precarious state of international relations and the potential for escalating conflicts on a global scale.
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