The Iran War Threatens to Split Trump’s Base

Summary

WSJ What’s News (March 19, 2026)

Episode: The Iran War Threatens to Split Trump’s Base

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Main Theme & Purpose

This episode focuses on the growing divisions within Donald Trump’s political base over his administration’s military campaign in Iran. It explores how this split could affect the Republican coalition and future elections. The episode also covers major developments in banking regulation, Apple’s AI revenue, U.S. intelligence on China and Taiwan, the electricity crisis in Cuba, and the impact of higher health insurance costs after expired subsidies.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Big Banks’ Capital Buffer Regulations

• [00:33] Alex Osola: Trump-appointed regulators have proposed easing banking rules from the post-2008 era, letting big banks reduce capital buffers.
• Insight: The proposal is a boon for major banks and signals a regulatory retreat compared to the Biden administration. It’s seen as an effort to boost lending and economic growth.

2. Apple’s Unexpected AI Revenue

• [02:40] Rolf Winkler (WSJ Tech Reporter):
  • Apple’s dominance comes not from its own AI, but from its platform fees—“the Apple tax”—on AI apps like ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini distributed through the App Store.
  • “For all of last year, Apple itself, the fee they raked in from these apps was around $900 million…” ([02:40])
  • Apple is working to improve Siri: “If they have a smart personal assistant that really uses the data you have on your phone, then that could be the first time a lot of, you know, civilians, non techies are using AI in a real way.” ([03:25])
• Insight: Apple’s financial clout in AI comes from its control over the platform rather than technological leadership.

3. Stocks & Energy Markets React to Iran War

• [03:21] Alex Osola: U.S. stocks fell on concerns about the Middle East conflict, though Trump said he wouldn't “put troops anywhere” regarding Iran ([03:48]).
• Oil prices spiked amid fears of supply disruption, but partly retreated by day's end.
• Gasoline prices hit multi-year highs, while gold and silver prices dropped sharply.

4. The Iran War and Division in Trump’s Base

• [04:53–08:32] Main Segment with Natalie Andrews (WSJ White House Correspondent):
  • There is a swelling antiwar contingent in right-wing media and among podcasters (e.g., Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly).
    • “These are folks who are saying Donald Trump didn’t run on getting into foreign conflicts and here we are engaged in a foreign conflict.” — Natalie Andrews ([05:42])
  • Core of their argument centers on “America First” promises and skepticism about U.S. interests aligning too closely with Israel.
  • The White House, right-wing media figures like Mark Levin, and Trump himself are pushing back, defending the Iran intervention as national security.
    • “Donald Trump over the weekend praised Mark Levin, a Fox commentator who’s been defending Trump and calling for strikes in Iran.” — Natalie Andrews ([06:08])
  • Polls: Most Republicans support the Iran campaign, but swing voters and the broader public are less supportive, especially of any long-term military engagement.
  • Implications for elections:
    • “These folks will have a role in choosing the candidate in 2028. And so if these folks get dissatisfied with Trump, it is something worth watching.” — Natalie Andrews ([08:00])
• Insight: Internal divisions in Trump’s coalition could impact midterm and future presidential primaries, especially if the war drags on or casualties/military spending mount.

5. U.S. Intelligence on China and Taiwan

• [09:12] Alex Osola: U.S. intelligence community now believes China is unlikely to invade Taiwan by next year, preferring nonmilitary tactics.
• Insight: This marks a shift from previous warnings of an explicit military timetable and could affect U.S.-Taiwan defense planning.

6. Cuba’s Blackout Crisis and U.S. Policy

• [10:03] Vera Bergengrun (WSJ National Security Reporter):
  • Cuba’s grid collapse leaves most residents without power, disrupting everyday life—“Daily life as they knew it has really completely ground to a halt there now.” ([10:03])
  • Havana government hints at economic reforms, such as allowing foreign investment, but demands full U.S. sanctions relief.
    • “They're offering things that would force the United States to remove some of its own current legal restrictions in order to inject some money into this economy. But all of that, for now, is basically a fantasy.” — Vera Bergengrun ([10:44])
  • U.S. administration, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, wants maximalist concessions—full political, not just economic, reform.
    • “They want the entire repressive structure to be dismantled. ... Where Trump himself just seems to want to add this to his legacy, and he wants to be the person that ... gets rid of this regime and replaces it with something. But that something is what we really don’t know.” — Vera Bergengrun ([12:03])
• Insight: No clear U.S. plan for ‘post-communist’ Cuba; legacy considerations and hardline stances dominate over specific policy proposals.

7. Millions Lose Health Insurance as ACA Subsidies Expire

• [13:02] Alex Osola: A KFF survey found nearly 1 in 10 former ACA policyholders dropped coverage after federal subsidies ended. Most remaining enrollees face much higher costs.
• Insight: The expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies leads to substantial loss of coverage and growing affordability concerns.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On fault lines in MAGA world:
  “These are folks who are saying Donald Trump didn’t run on getting into foreign conflicts and here we are engaged in a foreign conflict.”
  – Natalie Andrews ([05:42])

• On the swing voter factor:
  “Survey respondents really don’t want to see boots on the ground. They don’t want to see Congress spend a lot of money. They don’t want to see the US engage in something that’s going to be deemed long term.”
  – Natalie Andrews ([07:18])

• On Apple’s business model:
  “If I buy a subscription into an app, that company is paying typically roughly 30% of what I’m paying to them. They kick back to Apple. ... Apple itself, the fee they raked in from these apps was around $900 million, according to AppMagic.”
  – Rolf Winkler ([02:40])

• On Cuba’s economic reality:
  “None of that’s really possible under the current U.S. sanctions. So they’re offering things that would force the United States to remove some of its own current legal restrictions in order to inject some money into this economy. But all of that, for now, is basically a fantasy.”
  – Vera Bergengrun ([10:44])

• On U.S. approach toward Cuba:
  “U.S. officials, they repeat one point over and over again, which is the Cuban government is at the weakest point it’s ever been, which is why they want to take this opportunity to basically topple it or squeeze it of all of its resources and hope that they capitulate.”
  – Vera Bergengrun ([12:03])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Bank Regulation Proposal: [00:33–01:50]
• Apple AI Revenue & Analysis (Rolf Winkler): [02:40–03:48]
• Stocks, Oil, and Gold Market Impacts: [03:21–04:00]
• Iran War & Trump Base Split (Natalie Andrews): [04:53–08:32]
• U.S. Intelligence on China/Taiwan: [09:12–10:03]
• Cuba’s Electricity Crisis & U.S. Policy (Vera Bergengrun): [10:03–12:57]
• End of ACA Subsidies & Health Insurance Drop: [13:02–13:32]

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Overall Tone & Takeaways

The episode maintains the analytical, even-handed tone typical of WSJ reporting. It combines hard business and policy news with insightful political analysis, especially around the growing Republican coalition tensions that have the potential to influence both U.S. foreign policy and future elections. Interviews with subject-matter experts and journalists ground the discussion in both reporting and insider perspectives.

Transcript

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[Alex Osola]

in a victory for big banks, Trump regulators have proposed allowing them to reduce the capital buffers they hold for times of stress. Plus, some in Trump's base are against the war in Iran, a fault line that could have implications for future elections.

[Natalie Andrews]

These folks will have a role in choosing the candidate in 2028. And so if these folks get dissatisfied with Trump, it is something worth watching.

[Alex Osola]

And a new survey suggests that millions of Americans are going without health insurance after expired subsidies sent premiums Soaring. It's Thursday, March 19th. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. Foreign. The Federal Reserve today introduced proposals that would let America's biggest banks hold billions of dollars less in capital on their books. The plan eases rules put in place after the 2008 financial crisis that were meant to help shield against meltdowns. Officials say the changes would make it easier for banks to lend and help the economy. The proposals, if they're enacted, would be a big victory for banks. Wall street has embraced the second Trump administration largely out of hope that it would scrap stricter requirements that were proposed under President Biden. In Tech News, we're exclusively reporting that Jeff Bezos is in early talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund. It aims to buy manufacturing companies and use AI to accelerate their path to automation. The Amazon founder is meeting with some of the world's largest asset managers to raise money for the project. It would be one of the biggest buyout funds in the world and rival SoftBank's $100 billion tech focused vision fund. And Apple looks like it could top $1 billion in AI revenue this year. If you're an Apple user, that might be surprising because the company's Siri Chatbot is considered weak by modern AI standards. WSJ reporter Rolf Winkler told our Tech News Briefing podcast that the company's clear AI advantage is the iPhone companies in

[Rolf Winkler]

order to sell subscriptions, in order to reach consumers, they have to go through the I a primary way to reach people who want to use ChatGPT, who want to use Grok who want to use Gemini. These tools are all being distributed on the iPhone. And the reason Apple makes money is because of the Apple tax, the fee you pay Apple to sell subscriptions when you're on an iPhone, right? If I buy a subscription into an app, that company is paying typically roughly 30% of what I'm paying to them. They kicked back to Apple. So for all of last year, Apple itself, the fee they raked in from these apps was around $900 million, according to AppMagic.

[Alex Osola]

Rolf says Apple does have plans to boost its own AI.

[Rolf Winkler]

The conventional wisdom, which is not wrong, is Apple is way behind in AI. The main thing they're doing is they're going to bring out a better Siri this year. And if they can do that, if they have a smart personal assistant that really uses the data you have on your phone, then that could be the first time a lot of, you know, civilians, non techies are using AI in a real way.

[Alex Osola]

To hear more from Rolf, listen to tomorrow's episode of Tech News Briefing. US Indexes ended the day slightly lower, with the Dow leading the losses and closing down 0.4%. Stocks recovered from deeper declines after President Trump said he wouldn't, quote, put troops anywhere when asked about moving forces toward Iran. He also said that he told Israel not to attack oil and gas fields in Iran. Attacks on Middle east energy facilities have raised fears of a full blown energy crisis that sent Brent crude futures above $119 a barrel today. They later pared some gains and settled below $109. Average US costs for gasoline surged to $3.88 a gallon, their highest since 2022, and gold sank for the sixth time in the past seven trading days, losing nearly 6% today alone, while silver dropped more than 8%. The Trump administration is planning to ask Congress for hundreds of billions of dollars in funding to pay for its military campaign against Iran. A senior administration official said that the Pentagon has asked the White House to seek an additional $200 billion. The request is expected to face a rocky path in Congress. Lawmakers in both parties said today that they wanted to see more details of the proposal. Trump administration officials have refused to put a timeline on the war, from the conflict itself to how it's going over on the right we told you earlier this week about Joe Kent resigning as the White House's chief counterterrorism officer because he opposes the Iran war. Most of Trump's space has backed the president and his operation in Iran, but Kent resigning and in such a public way has expressed exposed a fault Line among the Right Journal White House correspondent Natalie Andrews joins me now to talk about the divide in MAGA world and what it could mean for the midterms. Natalie, who are those on the right who oppose the Trump administration's operation in Iran and what is their argument?

[Natalie Andrews]

This is a growing group. It's a loud group. They are podcasters. Tucker Carlson, who has visited the White House just a few weeks ago, has a podcast hosted Kentucky for his first big public interview on Wednesday night. These are folks who are saying Donald Trump didn't run on getting into foreign conflicts and here we are engaged in a foreign conflict.

[Alex Osola]

And who is pushing back against this anti war contingent?

[Natalie Andrews]

The White House, for one, says that they are not engaging in some sort of long term conflict. They often talk about this in weeks and they say that this is a matter of national security. Donald Trump over the weekend praised Mark Levin, a Fox commentator who's been defending Trump and calling for strikes in Iran. Donald Trump weighed into the back and forth that he was having with a former Fox News host and now podcaster Megyn Kelly, who herself has been skeptical of the war. She said, this is not our war. This is Israel's war. This shouldn't be a US War. This has been something that's been bubbling among the MAGA base for a while because when you run on being America first, part of the MAGA platform is why are we giving away so much foreign aid? Why are we doing this for other countries? So folks, start looking at how the US And Israel relationship is close. It has raised questions among the MAGA base on, you know, why is the US Listening so much to Israel? Why do they help Israel? And these are folks who have platforms and they are asking those questions beyond

[Alex Osola]

this sort of vocal group, as you're saying, how widespread is this anti war view among the right?

[Natalie Andrews]

Sort of broadly right now, conservatives are really sticking with Donald Trump. Polls show that people who identify as Republicans are supportive of the conflict in Iran. Now when you mix in Democrats, the support for the conflict goes down and you can see how, say, swing voters who can be instrumental in the midterms won't love a long conflict. Survey respondents really don't want to see boots on the ground. They don't want to see Congress spend a lot of money. They don't want to see the US Engage in something that's going to be deemed long term.

[Alex Osola]

The right has been pretty unified behind Trump for some time now. Does this foreshadow a bigger split among his base?

[Natalie Andrews]

These podcasters have been credited by Trump himself for helping him in 2024. He talks about going on podcasters that aren't necessarily partisan like Theo Vaughn and Joe Rogan. And those folks gave him a wider audience. A lot of men who may not come out to vote that they like to call low propensity voters, these folks will have a role in choosing the candidate in 2028. And so if these folks get dissatisfied with Trump, it is something worth watching.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ White House correspondent Natalie Andrews. Coming up, the US Intelligence community has a new view on China invading Taiwan and what a lack of electricity in Cuba could mean for the country's communist government. That's after the break.

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[Alex Osola]

The US Intelligence community has concluded that China isn't likely to invade Taiwan by next year and that instead, Beijing would prefer to take control of the island without resorting to force. The finding is a shift from past US warnings that an invasion could happen by 2027, a deadline that has fueled a sense of urgency in Washington and Taiwan to sharpen their strategies and invest in their arsenals. Earlier this week, Cuba's electric grid collapsed and the country's government is struggling to restore power. Authorities didn't know when the full grid would come back online. Most of Cuba's electricity generation system relies on oil, and the Trump administration's blockade on oil shipments to Cuba has led to unrest on the IS and pressure on its communist regime. WSJ national security reporter Vera Bergengrun joins us now. Vera, what is the situation on the ground in Cuba?

[Vera Bergengrun]

Cuba has been struggling for years with these periodic blackouts, but what we're seeing now, there is no electricity. Most of the island is completely dark. And for people who are living with this, I mean, they just don't know when they're going to get even a little bit of power to get water, to be able to go buy food. Public transportation has ground to a halt. People can't really go to their jobs. They're living on reduced salaries. Kids aren't going to school. So daily life as they knew it has really completely ground to a halt there now.

[Alex Osola]

Protests on the island have been going on for some time and are now intensifying. What kinds of concessions is the government looking to make to appease its citizens or at least relieve some of this pressure?

[Vera Bergengrun]

We've seen the government signal that they're open to some economic reforms and they're partly doing this to show that they are willing to negotiate with the United States. They're willing to give some economic concessions, allowing Cuban Americans outside of the island to invest there, to open businesses there. None of that's really possible under the current U.S. sanctions. So they're offering things that would force the United States to remove some of its own current legal restrictions in order to inject some money into this economy. But all of that, for now, is basically a fantasy. What they don't want to give is what the Trump administration is asking for, which is obviously political change.

[Alex Osola]

But the Cuban government is talking to the Trump administration. Right?

[Vera Bergengrun]

The Cuban government has confirmed that they're negotiating with the United States. It sounds quite different from the US Side and the Cuban side. The Cuban side is coming at it from a place of reassuring their people that they are still in full control, that they're not being pushed around or bullied by the United States. Of course, the United States is basically saying, we are going to get our way there. And we saw President Trump talk about taking Cuba. That is language that makes it very difficult for the Cuban government to be seen as wor working with the United States.

[Alex Osola]

I'm glad you brought up President Trump's comments, because that rhetoric has really ramped up recently. How does the Trump administration see what's going on on the island now?

[Vera Bergengrun]

U.S. officials, they repeat one point over and over again, which is the Cuban government is at the weakest point it's ever been, which is why they want to take this opportunity to basically topple it or squeeze it of all of its resources and hope that they capitulate. But it's important to remember who the main drivers are here. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who, of course, is Cuban American, other Cuban Americans in Congress and in other positions of power. And for them, they want the entire repressive structure to be dismantled. They want the entire economy to be redone. Quite maximalist demands. Whereas Trump himself just seems to want to add this to his legacy, and he wants to be the person that, you know, gets rid of this regime and replaces it with something. But that something is what we really don't know. There doesn't seem to be a defined plan for what would come after.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Vera Bergen Gruen. Thanks, Vera.

[Vera Bergengrun]

Thank you.

[Alex Osola]

Closer to home, nearly one in 10 people who had Affordable Care act plans last year have dropped health insurance altogether after premium costs rose sharply when federal subsidies expired. Most of those who still had ACA plans said they were paying bigger out of pocket. Health care expenses. That's according to a new survey of more than 1100 people polled by health research nonprofit KFF. The survey is the broadest look yet at the fallout from the end of enhanced ACA subsidies, which lapsed at the start of this year. And that's what's news for this Thursday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Pierre Biennime with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

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