WSJ What’s News (March 19, 2026)

Episode: The Iran War Threatens to Split Trump’s Base

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode focuses on the growing divisions within Donald Trump’s political base over his administration’s military campaign in Iran. It explores how this split could affect the Republican coalition and future elections. The episode also covers major developments in banking regulation, Apple’s AI revenue, U.S. intelligence on China and Taiwan, the electricity crisis in Cuba, and the impact of higher health insurance costs after expired subsidies.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Big Banks’ Capital Buffer Regulations

• [00:33] Alex Osola: Trump-appointed regulators have proposed easing banking rules from the post-2008 era, letting big banks reduce capital buffers.
• Insight: The proposal is a boon for major banks and signals a regulatory retreat compared to the Biden administration. It’s seen as an effort to boost lending and economic growth.

2. Apple’s Unexpected AI Revenue

• [02:40] Rolf Winkler (WSJ Tech Reporter):
  • Apple’s dominance comes not from its own AI, but from its platform fees—“the Apple tax”—on AI apps like ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini distributed through the App Store.
  • “For all of last year, Apple itself, the fee they raked in from these apps was around $900 million…” ([02:40])
  • Apple is working to improve Siri: “If they have a smart personal assistant that really uses the data you have on your phone, then that could be the first time a lot of, you know, civilians, non techies are using AI in a real way.” ([03:25])
• Insight: Apple’s financial clout in AI comes from its control over the platform rather than technological leadership.

3. Stocks & Energy Markets React to Iran War

• [03:21] Alex Osola: U.S. stocks fell on concerns about the Middle East conflict, though Trump said he wouldn't “put troops anywhere” regarding Iran ([03:48]).
• Oil prices spiked amid fears of supply disruption, but partly retreated by day's end.
• Gasoline prices hit multi-year highs, while gold and silver prices dropped sharply.

4. The Iran War and Division in Trump’s Base

• [04:53–08:32] Main Segment with Natalie Andrews (WSJ White House Correspondent):
  • There is a swelling antiwar contingent in right-wing media and among podcasters (e.g., Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly).
    • “These are folks who are saying Donald Trump didn’t run on getting into foreign conflicts and here we are engaged in a foreign conflict.” — Natalie Andrews ([05:42])
  • Core of their argument centers on “America First” promises and skepticism about U.S. interests aligning too closely with Israel.
  • The White House, right-wing media figures like Mark Levin, and Trump himself are pushing back, defending the Iran intervention as national security.
    • “Donald Trump over the weekend praised Mark Levin, a Fox commentator who’s been defending Trump and calling for strikes in Iran.” — Natalie Andrews ([06:08])
  • Polls: Most Republicans support the Iran campaign, but swing voters and the broader public are less supportive, especially of any long-term military engagement.
  • Implications for elections:
    • “These folks will have a role in choosing the candidate in 2028. And so if these folks get dissatisfied with Trump, it is something worth watching.” — Natalie Andrews ([08:00])
• Insight: Internal divisions in Trump’s coalition could impact midterm and future presidential primaries, especially if the war drags on or casualties/military spending mount.

5. U.S. Intelligence on China and Taiwan

• [09:12] Alex Osola: U.S. intelligence community now believes China is unlikely to invade Taiwan by next year, preferring nonmilitary tactics.
• Insight: This marks a shift from previous warnings of an explicit military timetable and could affect U.S.-Taiwan defense planning.

6. Cuba’s Blackout Crisis and U.S. Policy

• [10:03] Vera Bergengrun (WSJ National Security Reporter):
  • Cuba’s grid collapse leaves most residents without power, disrupting everyday life—“Daily life as they knew it has really completely ground to a halt there now.” ([10:03])
  • Havana government hints at economic reforms, such as allowing foreign investment, but demands full U.S. sanctions relief.
    • “They're offering things that would force the United States to remove some of its own current legal restrictions in order to inject some money into this economy. But all of that, for now, is basically a fantasy.” — Vera Bergengrun ([10:44])
  • U.S. administration, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, wants maximalist concessions—full political, not just economic, reform.
    • “They want the entire repressive structure to be dismantled. ... Where Trump himself just seems to want to add this to his legacy, and he wants to be the person that ... gets rid of this regime and replaces it with something. But that something is what we really don’t know.” — Vera Bergengrun ([12:03])
• Insight: No clear U.S. plan for ‘post-communist’ Cuba; legacy considerations and hardline stances dominate over specific policy proposals.

7. Millions Lose Health Insurance as ACA Subsidies Expire

• [13:02] Alex Osola: A KFF survey found nearly 1 in 10 former ACA policyholders dropped coverage after federal subsidies ended. Most remaining enrollees face much higher costs.
• Insight: The expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies leads to substantial loss of coverage and growing affordability concerns.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On fault lines in MAGA world:
  “These are folks who are saying Donald Trump didn’t run on getting into foreign conflicts and here we are engaged in a foreign conflict.”
  – Natalie Andrews ([05:42])

• On the swing voter factor:
  “Survey respondents really don’t want to see boots on the ground. They don’t want to see Congress spend a lot of money. They don’t want to see the US engage in something that’s going to be deemed long term.”
  – Natalie Andrews ([07:18])

• On Apple’s business model:
  “If I buy a subscription into an app, that company is paying typically roughly 30% of what I’m paying to them. They kick back to Apple. ... Apple itself, the fee they raked in from these apps was around $900 million, according to AppMagic.”
  – Rolf Winkler ([02:40])

• On Cuba’s economic reality:
  “None of that’s really possible under the current U.S. sanctions. So they’re offering things that would force the United States to remove some of its own current legal restrictions in order to inject some money into this economy. But all of that, for now, is basically a fantasy.”
  – Vera Bergengrun ([10:44])

• On U.S. approach toward Cuba:
  “U.S. officials, they repeat one point over and over again, which is the Cuban government is at the weakest point it’s ever been, which is why they want to take this opportunity to basically topple it or squeeze it of all of its resources and hope that they capitulate.”
  – Vera Bergengrun ([12:03])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Bank Regulation Proposal: [00:33–01:50]
• Apple AI Revenue & Analysis (Rolf Winkler): [02:40–03:48]
• Stocks, Oil, and Gold Market Impacts: [03:21–04:00]
• Iran War & Trump Base Split (Natalie Andrews): [04:53–08:32]
• U.S. Intelligence on China/Taiwan: [09:12–10:03]
• Cuba’s Electricity Crisis & U.S. Policy (Vera Bergengrun): [10:03–12:57]
• End of ACA Subsidies & Health Insurance Drop: [13:02–13:32]

Overall Tone & Takeaways

The episode maintains the analytical, even-handed tone typical of WSJ reporting. It combines hard business and policy news with insightful political analysis, especially around the growing Republican coalition tensions that have the potential to influence both U.S. foreign policy and future elections. Interviews with subject-matter experts and journalists ground the discussion in both reporting and insider perspectives.