Traders Bet on Trump’s Next Military Move

Summary

WSJ What’s News — Episode Summary

Episode Title: Traders Bet on Trump’s Next Military Move
Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Luke Vargas, The Wall Street Journal
Main Guest: Alexander Osipovich, WSJ Reporter

---

Overview

This episode delves into the surging popularity of online prediction markets, especially those speculating on the Trump administration's next military action following recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela. The hosts explore the intersection of real-world geopolitical events, finance, and online platforms where traders—potentially including insiders—bet on the likelihood of global events, such as military strikes. The show also covers headlines including the ICE shooting in Minneapolis, healthcare policy in Congress, and why LinkedIn is seeing a user boom amid social media turbulence.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Headline News: ICE Shooting in Minneapolis (00:22–03:35)

• Minneapolis is embroiled in controversy after an ICE officer fatally shot Renee Nicole Good, a 37-year-old woman.
  • Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem defended ICE, stating the officer "followed his training" and was justified in shooting (01:25).
  • Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Fry condemned ICE's actions, saying:
    "They are already trying to spin this as an action of self defense. Having seen the video of myself, I want to tell everybody directly that is bull." (01:51)
• Police Chief clarified Good was not the intended target but was blocking a road and drove off, leading to the shooting.
• Protests erupted locally and across several cities; National Guard was put on standby.

2. US Political Developments (03:35–04:23)

• Congress poised to vote on extending ACA subsidies; some bipartisan support.
• President Trump opposes extension, prefers Health Savings Accounts.
• Longtime House Democrat Steny Hoyer to retire at the end of his term.

3. Prediction Markets on Geopolitical Events (04:23–07:45)

• Introduction to recent enthusiasm for betting platforms like PolyMarket, which allow users to bet on outcomes such as:
  • U.S. military strikes on Iran by end of June ("jumped after attack on Venezuela... at 34%") (05:33)
  • Acquisition of Greenland, intervention in Somalia, and ousting Iran’s Supreme Leader.
• Alexander Osipovich explains prediction markets:
  • "They are a marketplace where people can bet on future events... The price of each contract reflects the probability people assign to that event." (04:27)
• Notable trend: A trader made over $400,000 betting against Maduro in Venezuela, placing bets shortly before the U.S. intervention.
  • “A new Poly Market account... put down tens of thousands... just hours before the attack, around the time, in fact, just before Trump gave the final order...” (06:28)
• Raises concerns about insider trading, transparency, and potential for corruption:
  • “You could have people who have genuine inside knowledge who jump into these markets, make them more accurate... but also take advantage of other people who are not as well informed." (07:04)

4. Markets Update and Defense Sector (08:36–09:36)

• Defense stocks fell after President Trump issued an executive order blocking dividends, buybacks, and limiting executive pay:
  • Executive order posted on Truth Social; industry urged to focus on production or risk Pentagon contracts.
• Other news: Chinese EV company Nio expands overseas, oil majors warn of weak prices and profits, concerns about oversupply in the oil market.

5. LinkedIn’s Surging Popularity Amid Social Media Changes (10:21–11:00)

• Stu Wu, WSJ Tech Reporter: Users flock to LinkedIn as content moderation declines on X (Twitter) and Facebook:
  • “I just got tired of all the shouting on X and Facebook. So they liked LinkedIn because you have to use your real name.” (10:21)
  • This policy encourages civility and self-discipline, benefiting LinkedIn’s brand and business as user numbers double to 1.3 billion in five years.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mayor Jacob Fry on ICE Shooting:
  "They are already trying to spin this as an action of self defense. Having seen the video of myself, I want to tell everybody directly that is bull." (01:51)
• Alexander Osipovich on Prediction Markets:
  "The way it works is they will allow you to bet on a yes or no question about some future thing happening." (04:27) "You could have people who have genuine inside knowledge who jump into these markets... that's why we have laws against insider trading in the stock market." (07:04)
• Stu Wu on LinkedIn’s Real Name Policy:
  “There have been all these studies that if there's a requirement to use a real name, you're much more likely to remain civil.” (10:21)

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• ICE Shooting & Protests: 00:22–03:35
• Congress & ACA Subsidies: 03:35–04:23
• Prediction Markets & Military Bets: 04:23–07:45
• Markets Update/Defense Industry: 08:36–09:36
• LinkedIn’s User Surge: 10:21–11:00

---

Takeaways

• The rise of crypto-based prediction markets signals new intersections between finance, politics, and real-time intelligence. These platforms are increasingly being watched for potential indications of insider knowledge and market manipulation.
• Major headlines underscore tensions between law enforcement and local governments and ongoing shake-ups in the defense and energy sectors.
• LinkedIn stands out as a refuge for users seeking professionalism and civility amid growing chaos on other social platforms.

---

This summary captures the crucial developments and conversations in this episode. Listeners get insights into the world of prediction markets and their potentially troubling connections to real-world events, along with a sense of how global politics and digital trends are shaping our present.

Transcript

[A]

Hey, this is Jessica Mendoza, host of the Journal Podcast, our show about money, business and power. If you're looking for more deeply reported stories like we share every day, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.WSJ.com TheJournal all lowercase to subscribe now.

[B]

Anger and finger pointing in Minneapolis after an ICE officer fatally shoots a motorist. Plus a look at the traitors betting on President Trump' next military target.

[C]

So for example, polymarket has a market on whether the US Will strike Iran by the end of June of this year. That jumped after the attack on Venezuela this weekend recently. Wednesday afternoon it was at 34% and.

[B]

Why users can't get enough of LinkedIn it's Thursday, January 8th. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal and here is the AM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. Federal and state officials are squaring off over yesterday's shooting of a 37 year old woman, Renee Nicole Good, by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer in Minneapolis. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem called the killing preventable, but said Good was obstructing law enforcement and refused to obey the commands of ICE agents. It's very clear that this individual was harassing and impeding law enforcement operations. Our officer followed his training, did exactly what he's been taught to do in that situation, and took actions to defend himself and defend his fellow law enforcement officers. Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Fry disputed that assessment in a heated press conference, telling ICE to get out of the city and accusing the agency of looking for excuses to use force.

[C]

They are already trying to spin this as an action of self defense. Having seen the video of myself, I want to tell everybody directly that is bull.

[B]

The city's police chief said that Good didn't appear to be the target of a federal law enforcement operation, saying her vehicle was blocking the road when an officer approached her on foot. The vehicle then drove off, he said, and at least two shots were fired. Good was found with a gunshot wound to the head and pronounced dead at a local hospital. Anti ICE protesters gathered in Minneapolis after yesterday's shooting and demonstrations were held in other major cities. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz urged the public to protest peacefully and directed National Guard troops to prepare in case they were needed to assist state and local authorities. Back in Washington, the House is set to vote today to extend enhanced Affordable Care act subsidies for three years. That effort took a step forward yesterday, with several Republicans crossing party lines to back the move in a procedural vote. President Trump has opposed extending the ACA subsidies, instead backing the general notion of funding health savings accounts. Meanwhile, Democrats number two in the House, Maryland's Steny Hoyer, is stepping down at the end of his term. Hoyer is 86 years old and began his house career in 1981. During his time in House leadership, Democrats pushed through the Affordable Care act and passed a massive COVID 19 relief package. Will the US acquire Greenland this year? This year, officials from the island are due for talks in Washington next week. How about striking Somalia by the end of January? The Trump administration just cut off all assistance to its government. Or what about playing a role in ousting Iran's supreme leader by mid year? Republican Senator Lindsey Graham just warned the Ayatollah that Trump would kill him if he didn't stop a crackdown on antigovernment protesters. While those subjects of fevered foreign policy speculation also happen to be contracts you can purchase or bet on on crypto based platforms like Polymarket, which we should note has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of the Wall Street Journal. Joining me to discuss these prediction markets which have been enjoying a boom in popularity lately, I'm joined by Wall Street Journal reporter Alexander Osipovich. Alex, we've talked about prediction markets a little bit here, but much more so over on our Tech News Briefing podcast. So just remind us how they operate and what has been catching your attention about them lately.

[C]

Prediction markets are actually a pretty simple idea. They are a marketplace where people can bet on future events. The way it works is they will allow you to bet on a yes or no question about some future thing happening. Like will Donald Trump pick Kevin Hassett to be his next Federal Reserve chief? And you can buy a contract saying yes this will happen or no it won't happen. If you are right, you get a dollar per contract. So the price of each contract is in and it reflects the probability that people assess of that event. So if the contract for Trump picking Hasset is currently at 60 cents, that reflects a 60% probability in the wisdom of polymarket betters.

[B]

Okay. And unsurprisingly, I mean a lot of activity on these platforms is like around sports, you know, is IU or Oregon going to win in a few days. But increasingly we are seeing as you mentioned finance topics, the number of IPOs this year or culture topics. And there's a notable trend we are seeing just in last few days since this move to oust Nicolas Maduro.

[C]

Yes, there is some interest in these markets on US Military action. And one thing that you can see in the data is that after the US Launched this strike against Venezuela and seized President Maduro, other countries started to seem like potential targets too. So, for example, polymarket has market on whether the US Will strike Iran by the end of June of this year. Jumped after the attack on Venezuela this weekend. Recently, Wednesday afternoon, it was at 34%. So keep that in mind.

[B]

Yeah, it's not just Iran. We're seeing kind of a rising sense among the crowd that there could be U.S. intervention in a host of different countries. Just help us understand how to interpret the odds we are seeing on sites like Polymarket. And I guess a little bit of context here. We report that somebody we don't know who made about 400 grand betting on Maduro's downfall on Polymarket in recent days. Though, because of the way these platforms operate, their identity is a secret.

[C]

It's not immediately obvious. A new Poly Market account created in late December put down tens of thousands of dollars, mostly on a market on whether Maduro would be out as the leader of Venezuela by the end of January. This trader ended up making more than $400,000. And what's super interesting is that many of this trader's bets were placed just hours before the attack, around the time, in fact, just before Trump gave the final order sending the military in.

[B]

There's the lack of transparency on these platforms and there are other serious implications here, including potential corruption.

[C]

Absolutely. The interesting thing here is that prediction markets kind of have two purposes. One is that they are kind of barometer of the likelihood of future events. Ideally, you want to have well informed people trading on them, putting skin in the game. That is ideally according to the vision of prediction markets, the way that you get truth. But the other side of that coin is that you could have people who have genuine inside knowledge who jump into these markets, markets trade on that, make them more accurate in doing so, but also take advantage of other people who are not as well informed. And that is why we have laws against insider trading in the stock market.

[B]

I have been speaking to Wall Street Journal reporter Alexander Osipovich. Alex, thank you so much for stopping by.

[C]

Thank you for having me.

[B]

Coming up, we've got the day's top markets news, including President Trump's crackdown on the defense industry and a look at why LinkedIn is so good at grabbing our attention. That and more after the break.

[A]

Hi, this is Gunjan Banerjee.

[C]

And this is Telus Demos.

[B]

We're reporters at the Wall Street Journal and The hosts of WSJ's take on.

[A]

The Week Take on the Week is a weekly show that gives listeners a leg up in the world of markets and investing from the Fed's moves to market bubbles.

[B]

We dive into the biggest deals, key players and business news ahead.

[A]

If you're looking for more news and tools that can help you navigate the markets, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall street journal.

[C]

Visit subscribe.WSJ.com takeontheweek to subscribe now.

[B]

Shares in defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman slipped Wednesday after President Trump pledged to block company dividends, stock buybacks and limit executive pay. Trump posted the executive order on Truth Social, saying the sector needs to speed up its production and maintenance of military equipment or otherwise risk losing its business with the Pentagon. Chinese automaker Nio plans to sell its EVs in Thailand, Australia and New Zealand this year as the company presses in overseas expansion amid intensifying competition in China, according to research from Goldman Sachs. The Chinese auto market is getting increasingly crowded, with 119 new model launches in the pipeline for this year. And two oil majors are warning that falling oil and gas prices are hurting their bottom line. Last night, ExxonMobil said upstream earnings would decline to 8,800 million dollars in the fourth quarter, down from 1.2 billion in Q3. Similarly, Shell said it expects to report higher oil and gas production but warned of significantly weaker oil trading performance. According to ubs, the industry will be grappling with depressed oil and gas prices for some time, with analysts at Saxo saying the prospect of higher Venezuelan exports risks adding barrels to a market already grappling with ample supply. And finally, while the spread of misinformation and deep fakes has raised concerns about a lot of social media, more people are now spending their time on LinkedIn. Journal tech reporter Stu Wu says the Microsoft owned network has lured people leaving other sites like Facebook and X where content moderation is in decline.

[D]

So I went out and interviewed some people. They said, oh man, I just got tired of all the shouting on X and Facebook. So they said they liked LinkedIn because of one of its old, oldest rules, which is you have to use your real name. So there's a couple reasons why this makes LinkedIn stand out from other social networks. Number one, there have been all these studies that if there's a requirement to use a real name, you're much more likely to remain civil. And number two, if you post something that might reflect poorly on you, well, that's the first place a recruiter or someone who wants to hire you might check to see whether you're suitable for a job. So that forces people to be more self disciplined about what they post, which reduced toxicity on the site.

[B]

And all that is paying off for LinkedIn, which has seen its revenues soar and membership Double to around 1.3 billion users over the past five years. And that's it for what's news for this Thursday morning. Today's show was produced by Hattie Moyer and Daniel Bok. Our supervising producer was Sandra Kilhoff. And I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show and until then, thanks for listening.

[A]

Sam.