Trump and Putin to Hold Ceasefire Talks

Summary

WSJ What’s News: Trump and Putin to Hold Ceasefire Talks – March 17, 2025

Hosted by The Wall Street Journal

---

1. President Trump to Engage in Ceasefire Negotiations with President Putin

In a significant development aimed at ending the protracted war in Ukraine, former President Donald Trump announced his intention to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. This announcement was made by Kate Bullivant on Air Force One at [00:33].

Trump expressed cautious optimism:
“A lot of work's been done over the weekend. We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can't. But I think we have a very good chance.” [01:31]

When pressed about specific concessions, Trump indicated that discussions would involve "land and power plants," referring to "dividing up certain assets" as a potential path to peace [01:40]. This comes amidst Moscow's steadfast demand to retain at least 18% of Ukrainian territory, an area roughly the size of Virginia. Additionally, Russia aims to reverse policies diminishing its cultural influence in Ukraine and to block Ukraine’s membership in NATO.

2. Legal Challenges to the Trump Administration’s Deportation Efforts

Amid these geopolitical maneuvers, the Trump administration faces legal hurdles in its domestic policies. Specifically, the administration has been deporting alleged Venezuelan gang members despite a temporary court order blocking such actions.

U.S. District Judge James Boasberg issued an oral order preventing the use of a wartime law to deport non-citizens currently in U.S. custody [02:00]. Boasberg stated, “Any plane containing these folks that is going to take off or is in the air needs to be returned to the United States.” [02:00] Despite this, a third deportation flight proceeded post-order, leading to confusion over the legality as the written order did not explicitly mention airborne planes. The administration's press secretary, Caroline Levitt, suggested that the written order does not conflict with ongoing actions, although legal experts caution that oral orders generally carry full legal weight. The matter is expected to escalate to the Supreme Court soon, with no immediate comment from the Department of Homeland Security, ICE, or the State Department [02:00].

3. Chinese Tech Giant Baidu Launches Competitive AI Model

Shifting focus to technology and global markets, Baidu has unveiled its new artificial intelligence model, Ernie X1, which it claims rivals Deepseek’s R1 model. Baidu asserts that Ernie X1 delivers comparable performance across various benchmarks at a lower cost [03:34]. This development follows Deepseek’s earlier market impact with its R1 model, which matched OpenAI's GPT-T4O capabilities without the necessity for the latest chips.

China’s Economic Performance:

Despite geopolitical tensions, China's economy has commenced 2025 on a robust note, alleviating some pressure from anticipated U.S. tariffs. Hannah Miao, covering China’s economy, reported that retail sales—a key indicator of consumer spending—accelerated in the first two months of the year. Industrial production and investments also exceeded expectations [04:34]. However, challenges persist as the unemployment rate surged to a two-year high, and the property market remains under strain, with declines in home sales and new construction starts. Economists interpret these mixed signals as indicative of China's underlying economic resilience, although uncertainties remain regarding the long-term impact of U.S. tariffs [04:34].

4. Mounting Recession Fears in the United States

Turning to the U.S. economy, fears of an impending recession are intensifying. President Trump, speaking on Fox News last week, refrained from ruling out a recession despite existing economic headwinds, including tariffs, funding cuts, and immigration restrictions [06:09].

Economic Indicators and Expert Insights:

Justin Lehart, WSJ Economics Reporter, alongside colleague Paul Kiernan, delves into various recession indicators:

• Rising Uncertainty: Measures of uncertainty have reached peak levels, second only to the COVID-19 pandemic. This elevated uncertainty hampers business planning and investment decisions [06:40].

• Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence, particularly regarding the job market, has deteriorated. Negative sentiment about employment prospects often precedes declines in consumer spending, a critical driver of the U.S. economy [07:20].

• Business Concerns: Business leaders express apprehension over tariffs and regulatory uncertainty, stalling hiring and investment [07:24].

Lehart explains, “These measures of uncertainty... make it very hard for businesses to plan,” highlighting the potential for a "snowball effect" where reduced consumer spending leads to lower business revenues and further economic slowdown [07:24].

Despite these concerns, some positive indicators remain. The February job report was solid, and initial jobless claims have stayed low, suggesting resilience in the labor market [10:24]. However, Lehart cautions against definitive recession predictions, emphasizing the dynamic and resilient nature of the U.S. economy: “The US economy has been very dynamic, has been very resilient... what's really important is watching all of these indicators...” [10:33]

5. Egg Prices Surge Amid Avian Flu, Leading to Increased Smuggling

Amid economic anxieties, consumers face rising costs in everyday goods, notably eggs. The Labor Department reported that a dozen grade A large eggs averaged $5.90 last month, a significant increase from $3 a year earlier, attributed to an avian flu outbreak [11:18].

Rise in Egg Smuggling:

Jean Whalen, a WSJ reporter, details a spike in egg smuggling as consumers attempt to circumvent high prices by importing eggs illegally. Egg interceptions by Customs and Border Protection have surged by 36% nationwide compared to the previous year, with specific hotspots like Laredo and San Diego experiencing increases of 54% and 158%, respectively [11:53]. Most individuals confiscated were not attempting to hide eggs but were openly declaring them, often facing fines up to $300. This “eggflation” underscores the broader economic strains affecting American consumers [11:53].

---

Conclusion

Today's episode of WSJ What’s News encapsulates crucial global and domestic developments, from high-stakes diplomatic negotiations and legal battles to technological advancements and economic challenges. President Trump's planned discussions with President Putin represent a pivotal moment in the quest for peace in Ukraine, while domestic policies face judicial scrutiny. Concurrently, China's economic resilience and technological strides contrast with rising recession fears and consumer cost pressures in the United States. As these narratives unfold, The Wall Street Journal continues to provide insightful analysis and comprehensive coverage of the events shaping our world.

---

Produced by Daniel Bark with supervising producer Sandra Kilhoff. Presented by Kate Bullivant, filling in for Luke Vargas.

Transcript

[Advertiser]

This episode is brought to you by Indeed. When your computer breaks, you don't wait for it to magically start working again. You fix the problem. So why wait to hire the people your company desperately needs? Use Indeed's sponsored jobs to hire top talent fast. And even better, you only pay for results. There's no need to wait. Speed up your hiring with a $75 sponsored job credit@ Indeed.com podcast. Terms and conditions apply.

[Kate Bullivant]

In a bid to end the war in Ukraine, President Trump says he will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. Plus head scratching on Wall street as economists try to figure out whether the US Might fall into a recession.

[Justin Lehart]

So these measures of uncertainty, they've risen to the highest level ever, except for Covid. And what this type of uncertainty does is it makes it very hard for businesses to plan.

[Kate Bullivant]

And as egg prices soar, so does egg smuggling. It's Monday, March 17th. I'm Kate Bullivant for the Wall Street Journal, filling in for Luke Vargas. And here is the AM Edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. President Donald Trump is planning to speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday as he pushes to end the war in Ukraine. Trump made the announcement to reporters on board Air Force One.

[Donald Trump]

A lot of work's been done over the weekend. We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can't. But I think we have a very good chance.

[Kate Bullivant]

When pressed on what concession he'll be seeking from Putin to get a deal done, Trump said they'll be talking about land and power plants as part of those conversations to bring the war to a close, describing it as, quote, dividing up certain assets. Moscow has insisted on holding onto at least 18% of Ukrainian territory. It already controls an area roughly roughly equivalent in size to Virginia. It also expressed intentions to reverse policies that have sidelined Russian cultural influence in Ukraine and preclude the country's membership in NATO. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has deported alleged Venezuelan gang members despite a court order that temporarily blocked it from doing so. U.S. district Judge James Boasberg during a hearing early Saturday evening, issued an oral order blocking President Trump from using a centuries old wartime law to deport non citizens held in U.S. custody after hearing that two aircraft believed to be carrying Venezuelan deportees took off from U.S. territory. Boasberg said that, quote, any plane containing these folks that is going to take off or is in the air needs to be returned to the United States, end quote. A third plane took off after the order was issued. The judge subsequently issued a written order that didn't explicitly mention planes already in the air, something White House Press Secretary Secretary Caroline Levitt seemed to point to saying the written order and the administration's actions do not conflict. Typically, lawyers view orders issued orally by judges as carrying full legal weight, according to a person familiar with the matter. Administration officials are expecting a fight at the Supreme Court soon. The Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the State Department didn't respond to a request for comment.

[Justin Lehart]

Foreign.

[Kate Bullivant]

To Market News now and Chinese tech giant Baidu has released a new artificial intelligence model, which the company claims can rival Deepseek's AI model across various benchmarks at an even lower cost. Baidu said its Ernie X1 reasoning model can support advanced search, AI, image generation and web page reading. Deepsea caused a market frenzy earlier this year with its R1 model performing on par with OpenAI's GPT T4O model at a fraction of the cost and without relying on the most advanced chips. Meanwhile, China's economy has gotten off to a surprisingly good start this year, giving Beijing some breathing room as it braces for the impact of US Tariffs. Hannah Miao covers China's economy for us and says the numbers come a day after Beijing released a policy plan to expand domestic consumption in a bid to replace its largely export driven growth.

[Hannah Miao]

China on Monday reported that retail sales, which is a measure of consumer spending, accelerated for the first two months of the year. Industrial production and investments also grew more than expected. On the downside, we did see that the unemployment rate jumped to the highest level in two years as well as the property market continues to really struggle as measured by things like home sales, new construction starts and in general, many economists. Reactions to the data released on Monday is that it shows that China is on relatively solid footing, but it's too early to tell exactly how Trump's tariffs could impact the economy.

[Kate Bullivant]

Coming up, China's economy may be on solid footing for now, but in the US Recession, fears are mounting. We look at all the indicators and just how certain an economic downturn is. That's after the break. Burger King has a deal for all.

[Burger King Voiceover]

Burger King's $5 duo and $7 trio are here. Choose from six tasty options to build your own BK deal. Get two for $5 or three items for only $7. What deal will you create?

[Kate Bullivant]

You rule your season today at bk. Have it your way.

[Burger King Voiceover]

Proper participation. We are US only. No substitutions. Restrictions apply. Additional terms apply. BK.

[Kate Bullivant]

President Trump declined to rule out a recession when speaking on Fox News last week, however, amid tariffs, funding cuts and immigration restrictions, recession talk hangs heavy in the air. And as major economic data hasn't yet begun to fully capture Trump's time in office, WSJ economics reporter Justin lehart along with his colleague Paul Kiernan have been looking for other signs of a recession. Justin Walker's US through some of the recession indicators that you've been looking at?

[Justin Lehart]

Yeah, a lot of it is just keeping our ear to the ground on the news, watching what companies are saying in conference calls, looking at basically every front page in the US there's some very good measures of uncertainty taken from textual analysis of newspapers. Those have really shot higher. We're looking at consumer confidence measures. Michigan sentiment number, for example, has deteriorated. And we're looking at high frequency spending data, data from places like bank of America. What are their customers doing with their card purchases? So we're seeing softness all around and there's a real question of what that is going to turn into.

[Kate Bullivant]

And that uncertainty also affecting businesses.

[Justin Lehart]

So these measures of uncertainty, they've risen to the highest level ever, except for Covid. And what this type of uncertainty does is it makes it very hard for businesses to plan. And we're also seeing that in comments from businesses. We're seeing that in surveys that are taken by Federal Reserve banks and others. People are quite forthrightly saying tariffs, we don't know what's happening. We're not sure how high the rates are going to be, what they're going to be on, where they're going to be. So even a business that is maybe excited about Trump's deregulatory agenda, it makes it very hard to say, well, okay, where am I going to hire people, where am I going to invest? That can freeze things for a moment and that's not good for the economy.

[Kate Bullivant]

Okay, so business leaders are worried, but what about consumers?

[Justin Lehart]

So we have seen these measures of consumer confidence deteriorate, especially when it comes to asking consumers about what they think about the job market. If they think unemployment is going to be going up, that is often a sign that consumer spending is going to flag a bit. And we have seen that people are worrying more about the job market. Some people obviously are quite worried. If you're a federal worker, many of them have lost their jobs. Many of them are worried that they're going to lose their job.

[Kate Bullivant]

Yeah, I was interested when reading your piece, why the job market was an area that you looked into to gauge whether or not a recession was around the corner. Because the job market is still strong Going off, February's unemployment rate coming in low by historical standards.

[Justin Lehart]

So the job market is really important. It also tends to lag a lot of the things that happen when a recession hits. So by the time the job market has really cracked, it's game over. But when people start worrying about the job market, when you start to see it fraying a little bit, that can cause problems with consumer spending. Right. And that can of course have a snowball effect. Right. Once you rein in spending, then businesses aren't making more. Walmart, for example, has said that people are buying smaller package sizes. That's often something that they do if they're worried about their money running out. We're even seeing people are buying more little liquor bottles instead of the big ones. Right. That's again something that people do when they're starting to worry a little bit. What's going on? The transportation sector looks like it's having trouble. Plane tickets are an especially tough sell. Delta Airlines cautioned of that last week. The good news so far is the February job report was good. It was solid. And also importantly, jobless claims. These are initial jobless claims for people filing for unemployment. Right. Those have stayed low. And typically what we see when things get quite bad when a recession is hitting, you see those really start to move up.

[Kate Bullivant]

And if these trends and behaviors continue, does that mean a recession is definitely on the cards or is there a way out, so to speak?

[Justin Lehart]

You always have to be careful with recession calls. There are always things that can go wrong and it is easy to cherry pick and decide that the world is going to end and it doesn't. The US economy has been very dynamic, has been very resilient. If you remember during the Biden administration, people were sure, they were certain that a recession was coming and nothing like that ever occurred. This could be a repeat. So what's really important is watching all of these indicators, not just ones that might fit with our personal narrative, to really understand what's going on. And that's what we're trying to do.

[Kate Bullivant]

Okay, I guess we'll just have to keep watching and wait and see. Justin, thanks very much.

[Justin Lehart]

Thank you.

[Kate Bullivant]

And recession fears aside, one of the things also weighing on American consumers is the price of eggs. Data from the Labour Department shows that a dozen grade A large eggs averaged $5.90 last month, a record compared with just $3 a year earlier, thanks to an outbreak of avian flu. And as Journal reporter Jean Whalen explains, that so called eggflation has resulted in customs and Border protection agents confiscating more contraband eggs than ever before as people crossing the Canadian and Mexican border stock up.

[Jean Whalen]

Egg interceptions are up 36% nationwide compared with the previous year. And in certain parts of Texas, they're up even more. They've risen by 54% near Laredo and in San Diego, they're up an incredible 158%. Most people arriving at the border don't know that bringing in eggs is prohibited. They openly declare the eggs when they arrive. They're not trying to hide them, and they're told by customs agents that it's not allowed. Every once in a while, customs agents say they do encounter someone who is trying to hide their eggs, and then they have issued some $300 fines in recent months along the Texas border.

[Kate Bullivant]

And that's it for what's news for this Monday morning. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bark with supervising producer Sandra Kilhoff. And I'm Kate Bullivant for the Wall Street Journal filling in for Luke Vargas. We will be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.