Trump Expected to Nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair

Summary

WSJ What’s News – AM Edition (Jan 30, 2026)

Episode Theme:
Major market and policy shifts: Trump’s Fed pick, government shutdown avoidance, AI IPO race, Apple’s earnings, global trade spats, and the surprising allure of “Costco Tourism.”

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Trump Expected to Nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair

[00:33–02:18]

• Announcement: President Trump is set to nominate Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair, concluding lengthy deliberations with several high-profile candidates.
• Market Reaction & Profile:
  • Alex Frangos, Finance Editor:

    "Warsh is very much the candidate that Wall Street and markets probably are most comfortable with. He's a former Fed governor, he has deep ties on Wall Street, but in recent years he's become more of a Trumpian economic thinker." (01:32)

  • Warsh has publicly supported rate cuts, aligning with Trump’s economic agenda. However, his historical independence creates uncertainty about his future stance at the Fed.

    "But the question is, which Kevin Warsh will show up at the Fed?...I think Trump has to worry a little bit that he puts the guy in and then he goes against him. And that's been his big reservation." (01:51)

• Powell’s Term: Jerome Powell’s chairmanship ends in May.

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2. OpenAI Targets Q4 2026 for Blockbuster IPO

[02:18–03:26]

• Exclusive Report: OpenAI aims for a Q4 2026 public listing, moving ahead of initial schedules due to AI industry competition.
  • Berber Jin, Venture Capital Reporter:

    "OpenAI's calculus is that whoever goes out first will definitely benefit from a lot of the attention that will come from being the first generative AI company to be a public company..." (02:47)

• Market Dynamics: Massive R&D and operational costs for gen AI mean the public markets present vital fundraising opportunities.
• Competitor Race: Rival Anthropic plans to break even two years before OpenAI (by 2028), intensifying the race for investor dollars.

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3. Apple’s Record Earnings—but Market Cautious

[03:26–05:23]

• Financials: Apple posted record quarterly sales, with iPhone revenue jumping 23% YoY to over $85 billion. Despite the beat, shares remained flat in after-hours trading.
• Investor Sentiment:
  • Rolf Winkler, Tech Reporter:

    “What’s a company got to do to impress investors?...People keep buying iPhones. No one's going to buy an Android device because it's got some killer AI feature... and yet the stock’s not reacting..." (04:01)

• Margin Concerns:
  • The cost of memory and specialized chips is rising due to competition, especially from Nvidia at supplier TSMC.
  • Rolf Winkler:

    "The concern is memory prices and prices for other components...Apple is no longer TSMC’s sole major customer. Nvidia is buying up a whole bunch more of that production..." (04:43)

  • Apple may absorb the cost rather than increase iPhone 18 prices, potentially squeezing profit margins.

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4. Market & Economic Updates

[05:23–06:09]

• Earnings to Watch: Oil giants Chevron and ExxonMobil, American Express, Verizon—all reporting.
• Inflation Watch: Monthly Producer Price Index release scheduled, key for inflation trajectories.

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5. Government Shutdown Deal Struck

[06:40–07:57]

• Temporary DHS Funding Extension: President Trump and Senate Democrats reach a stopgap deal to avert a government shutdown—a two-week funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security.
  • Damian Paletta, DC Reporter:

    "After the killing of Renee Good and Alex Preddy in Minnesota, Democrats suddenly had a tremendous amount of leverage over the White House..." (07:01)

  • The short extension buys time for further negotiations, with possible tough fights ahead on leadership and policy at DHS.

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6. Trump Weighs in on Western Allies’ China Ties

[07:57–08:54]

• US Pressure on UK, Canada: Trump criticizes British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Beijing and warns Canada against deepening trade ties with China, threatening steep tariffs and punitive measures.
  • Alex Frangos:

    “It's very dangerous for them to do.” (08:09)

  • Damian Paletta:

    “And it's even more dangerous, I think, for Canada to get into business with China. Canada is not doing well.” (08:11)

  • The Trump administration threatens punitive tariffs in response to China-related trade, including hypothetical 100% tariffs on Canadian goods should trade agreements advance.

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7. US–China Rivalry in the Americas: Panama & Venezuela

[08:54–09:40]

• Panama Canal Moves: Panama’s Supreme Court annuls CK Hutchison’s port contract, a step seen as limiting Chinese influence and supporting Trump’s security goals in the hemisphere.
• US–Venezuela Détente: The US reopens some Venezuelan airspace and relaxes oil sanctions after Venezuela's National Assembly offers more operational autonomy to US firms.

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8. “Costco Tourism” – A Quirky US Export

[09:58–11:34]

• Phenomenon: Growing numbers of Americans are traveling internationally to visit Costco stores in places like Iceland, Spain, Japan, and Australia, seeking local and unique products alongside old American staples.
  • Stu Wu, Reporter:

    "There are these huge Costco fans who...instead of going to the Louvre...they take a train or a car...and they go all the way to the suburbs and they go to Costco. They go there to see what the locals are buying in bulk and they test out some of the stuff in the food court." (10:21)
    “Like, for instance, I went to the one in Japan. Instead of a chicken bake, they have a beef bulgogi bake.” (10:50)

• Cultural Discovery:
  • Unexpected finds include fish jerky in Iceland, foie gras in France, and region-specific snacks.
  • Stu Wu:

    “When you step into one of these Costcos, it feels like home, but also you find out what really matters to the locals.” (11:17)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Warsh's Fed Appointment:

  "Warsh is very much the candidate that Wall Street and markets probably are most comfortable with..."
  — Alex Frangos (01:32)

• On the Gen AI IPO Race:

  “Whoever goes out first will definitely benefit from a lot of attention...”
  — Berber Jin (02:47)

• On Apple's Enduring Allure:

  “People keep buying iPhones. No one's going to buy an Android device because it's got some killer AI feature...and yet the stock’s not reacting...”
  — Rolf Winkler (04:01)

• On the Political Stakes in DHS Funding:

  “Democrats suddenly had a tremendous amount of leverage over the White House...they agreed to this stepgap bill.”
  — Damian Paletta (07:01)

• On the Odd Joy of Costco Tourism:

  "Instead of going to the Louvre...they go all the way to the suburbs and they go to Costco..."
  — Stu Wu (10:21)
  “When you step into one of these Costcos, it feels like home, but also you find out what really matters to the locals.”
  — Stu Wu (11:17)

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• Fed Chair Announcement & Analysis: 00:33–02:18
• OpenAI IPO Plans: 02:18–03:26
• Apple Earnings & Investor Concerns: 03:26–05:23
• Earnings & Economic Data Preview: 05:23–06:09
• Government Funding Deal: 06:40–07:57
• US–Allies–China Trade Tensions: 07:57–08:54
• Americas Security & Business Moves: 08:54–09:40
• Costco Tourism Feature: 09:58–11:34

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Episode Tone

Brisk, journalistic, and slightly wry—delivering key market, policy, and global developments with expert opinions, quick insights, and the occasional odd, delightful detour (see: Costco tourism).

Transcript

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[Luke Vargas]

President Trump prepares to tap Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed chair. Plus, the White House and Democrats close in on a deal to avoid a government shutdown. And Apple shares tread water as investors look past a bumper earnings beat to a looming chip shortage.

[Rolf Winkler]

That tells you something about people potentially concerned with these cost pressures that may be coming down the line for the components that go into the IPH that could hit Apple's margins.

[Luke Vargas]

It's Friday, January 30th. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal and here is the AM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. The pick is in. President Trump is expected to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve today, ending months of deliberations that had seen a number of candidates effectively auditioning for the job. So what would a WASH led Fed look like? Here's finance editor Alex Frangos.

[Alex Frangos]

Warsh is very much the candidate that Wall street and markets probably are most comfortable with. He's a former Fed governor, he has deep ties on Wall street, but in recent years he's become more of a Trumpian economic thinker. He's been very pro rate cut during this process, something that will have been pleasing to Trump's ears. But the question is, which Kevin Warsh will show up at the Fed? Is it going to be the old Kevin Warsh who was someone who wasn't afraid to go against the Fed consensus, or the one who more recently sings the same tune as Trump in terms of being pro tariffs and wanting rate cuts, even while others think there's still inflationary pressure in the economy and therefore you shouldn't. So I think Trump has to worry a little bit that he puts the guy in and then he goes against him. And that's been his big reservation. But clearly he got comfortable with WASH and that's the way it's going.

[Luke Vargas]

The White House and WASH didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. Jerome Powell's term as current Fed chair ends in May. We are exclusively reporting that OpenAI is targeting Q4 for its blockbuster IPO Journal Venture Capital reporter Berber Jin says that marks an acceleration of the company's original listing plans as rival Anthropic also eyes a potential IPO by year's end.

[Berber Jin]

OpenAI's calculus is that whoever goes out first will definitely benefit from a lot of the attention that will come from being the first generative AI company to be a public company and will be able to access a lot of the public money that is basically just waiting to be put into this new wave of gen AI companies. You have to remember that these businesses lose a lot of money. It costs a lot to build next generation models and to also power chatbots like ChatGPT and Claude. And there's going to be a limit to how much these companies can keep raising in the private market.

[Luke Vargas]

Anthropic expects to break even for the first time in 2028, according to projections shared with investors last year, two years earlier than OpenAI. News Corp. Owner of the Wall Street Journal, has a content licensing partnership with OpenAI. Apple posted record quarterly sales yesterday after the market close, with iPhone revenue jumping 23% from a year earlier to more than $85 billion. That beat Wall street expectations. But as tech reporter Rolf Winkler told me, it didn' of a pop for Apple's shares in off hours trading.

[Rolf Winkler]

What's a company got to do to impress investors is one thing you wonder about this earnings. The stock is flat on this report, which was gargantuan as the CFO put it to me. The company increased its revenue this quarter versus the year ago by $20 billion. People are upgrading to this new iPhone 17 in crazy numbers. For all the hand wringing about, Apple is behind in AI and they don't have this, they don't have that. What this quarter just proved is doesn't matter. People keep buying iPhones. No one's going to buy an Android device because it's got some killer AI feature that is must have and yet the stock's not reacting and Rolf explained this to us.

[Luke Vargas]

It seems like the root of investor concern here seems to be around parts costs and a potential hit to margins as a result.

[Rolf Winkler]

The concern is memory prices and prices for other components. The cost of chips is going up. Apple is no longer TSMC's sole major customer. Nvidia is buying up a whole bunch more of that production, which gives TSMC some leverage. There's other components, specialized glass fiber that is going up in price. So this is all stuff that AI hyperscalers are demanding in much greater amounts and suddenly Apple is not the only Goliath in the electronics supply chain. And people are looking to later this year and thinking that's going to start flowing through their financial statements. What does that mean for the bottom line?

[Luke Vargas]

That was the Journal's Rolf Winkler. According to one supply chain analyst report, Apple may choose not to raise prices for next year's iPhone 18 lineup and instead take a hit to its gross profit margins and earnings. Season is rolling on today with the latest reports from oil majors Chevron and ExxonMobil this morning, along with American Express and Verizon. And we'll also get a reading on monthly supplier inflation with December's Producer price index due at 8:30am Eastern. Coming up, the rest of the day's news, including a deal in Washington to avoid a potential government shutdown. And we'll look at the Americans driving Costco Tourism abroad. Those stories and more after the break.

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[Luke Vargas]

President Trump and Senate Democrats say they've reached a deal to avert a partial government shutdown and temporarily fund the Department of Homeland Security. Our Washington coverage, Damian Paletta says the deal would see the Senate quickly pass a handful of spending bills that have already cleared the House, but only a two week stopgap funding extension for dhs.

[Damian Paletta]

After the killing of Renee Good and Alex Preddy in Minnesota, Democrats suddenly had a tremendous amount of leverage over the White House on the operations of ICE and the Department of Homeland Security. And the Republicans knew this. The White House knew this. In fact, they didn't even try to put up a fight. Now what exactly they end up giving is unclear, and what Democrats ask for is unclear. But they were just out of time on this spending package, so they agreed to this stepgap bill. It's going to probably take a little time to bump through Congress, so there could actually be technically a temporary shutdown over the weekend, although no one will really notice, and then they'll have a couple weeks to figure out what exactly they want to do. Now the Democrats could try to cut a deal quickly just to have some imprint on new policy, or they could go to the mat fight over possibly the removal of Kirsten Noem as the secretary of dhs. And that could be obviously a lot more complicated. So Democrats have to figure out how they want to proceed here, but they're going to have a little time to do that.

[Luke Vargas]

President Trump is increasing pressure on US Allies pursuing closer ties with China, calling out an ongoing trip by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Beijing aimed at increasing business between the countries.

[Alex Frangos]

It's very dangerous for them to do.

[Damian Paletta]

That, and it's even more dangerous, I.

[Alex Frangos]

Think, for Canada to get into business with China. Canada is not doing well.

[Damian Paletta]

They're doing very poorly and you can't look at China as the answer.

[Luke Vargas]

Starmer's talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping follow Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's own trip to China, where the country has agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese made EVs and Canadian agricultural products. That triggered Trump to threaten 100% tariffs against all Canadian imports in event of a free trade agreement between China and Canada, something Carney said he's not pursuing. Last night, Trump also warned that he might decertify Canadian made aircraft and apply 50% tariffs on imports in retaliation for what he described as the country's refusal to certify U S made Gulfstream jets. Panama's Supreme Court has annulled the contract for Hong Kong company CK Hutchison to operate two ports at either end of the Panama Canal. Hutchison can't appeal a Supreme Court ruling, but it can request clarifications that could delay the termination of its operating license. The ruling hands President Trump a victory for his security ambitions in the Western Hemisphere and his desire to dent China's influence there. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has moved to reopen commercial airspace over Venezuela and ease some sanctions on its battered oil industry. That comes as Venezuela's national assembly yesterday approved changes to hydrocarbon laws to allow US Companies more autonomy to operate in the country. And finally, how's this for a pre flight checklist? Passport, boarding pass and Costco membership card?

[Damian Paletta]

I'm in Costco. Iceland. Let's go check it out.

[Rolf Winkler]

My American Costco card works here.

[Luke Vargas]

Merci. Today we're standing outside of Costco, but we're in Spain, Costco in Japan. I'm so excited right now. Journal reporter Stu Wu says that with locations in 13 foreign countries, Costco centric tourism is becoming a thing for the brand's American devotees.

[Stu Wu]

There are these huge Costco fans who will fly to some of the most famous cities in the world, like Tokyo and Paris, and instead of going to the Louvre or some of the other Touristy things you might expect. They take a train or a car and they go all the way to the suburbs and they go to Costco. They go there to see what the locals are buying in bulk and they test out some of the stuff in the food court. If you go to TikTok YouTube, you'll find find these videos of people taking you through the Costco and saying, whoa, they have fish jerky in Iceland. Or look at these pallets of foie gras in France. Or this like kangaroo shaped potato snack in Australia. Like, for instance, I went to the one in Japan. Instead of a chicken bake, they have a beef bulgogi bake.

[NetSuite Oracle Announcer]

Costco in Japan is a wonderland if you love Japanese food and products.

[Luke Vargas]

So far, it looks exactly like an American Costco.

[Rolf Winkler]

Trash bags here cost $40.31 back home, 1999. And do they have the same $50 hot dog or did they substitute it with something French like a Jambombert?

[Stu Wu]

The things are like 90% the same. They got the rotisserie chicken, they got the Kirkland jeans. It's sort of like the 10% where you realize, oh, these things, you know, you wouldn't find in America. So a lot of it is when you step into one of these Costcos, it feels like home, but also you find out what really matters to the locals.

[Luke Vargas]

And that's it for what's news for this Friday morning. Today's show was produced by Hattie Moyer, our supervising producer. Producer was Daniel Bach. And I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Otherwise, have a great weekend and thanks for listening.