Trump Muses About Regime Change in Iran. Could It Happen?

Summary

WSJ What’s News: “Trump Muses About Regime Change in Iran. Could It Happen?”

Release Date: June 23, 2025

The Wall Street Journal's podcast episode titled "Trump Muses About Regime Change in Iran. Could It Happen?" delves deep into the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, exploring the ramifications of recent military actions and political rhetoric. Hosted by Luke Vargas, the episode provides comprehensive coverage of the latest developments, expert analyses, and the broader geopolitical context surrounding the potential for regime change in Iran.

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1. US Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Overview of Recent Events:
The episode opens with a report on the United States' military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities over the past weekend. The Pentagon is actively assessing the extent of the destruction inflicted on Iran's nuclear program. Defense Secretary Pete Hegsenth declared the strikes a significant blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions, stating at [00:39] that "Iran's nuclear ambitions had been obliterated and dealt a final blow."

Investigating the Damage:
However, Wall Street Journal reporter Lawrence Norman provides a more nuanced perspective at [01:47], highlighting uncertainties regarding the actual damage, especially at the Fordow underground nuclear complex. Norman remarks, "It was an incredible and overwhelming success," while also noting, "behind the scenes, the extent of the damage...is less clear."

Expert Insights:
Sudarsan Raghavan, Senior Middle East Correspondent, adds context at [02:02], explaining the complexities in determining the full impact of the strikes: "We do not know whether all of the equipment in Fordow was damaged or destroyed, and we do not know if the site was put out of action." Rafael Grossi of the UN Atomic Agency echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the need for on-ground inspections to ascertain the true scale of the damage.

2. President Trump's Comments on Regime Change

Trump's Rhetoric:
The conversation shifts to President Trump's comments on regime change in Iran. At [03:17], Vargas reports that Trump, in a post on Truth Social, hinted at the possibility of regime change if the current Iranian leadership fails to "make Iran great again." He stated, "Why wouldn't there be a regime change?"

Domestic Backdrop in Iran:
To unpack the implications of Trump's comments, Vargas engages with experts Lawrence Norman and Sanam Vakil from Chatham House. Lawrence Norman discusses the internal struggles within Iran at [04:10], stating, "Iran's embattled leaders...are in a bit of an existential struggle domestically," and highlighting the humiliation faced by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps due to Israeli intelligence operations.

Sanam Vakil's Analysis:
Sanam Vakil provides further insights at [05:37], explaining the weakened social contract in Iran and the rising support for alternative leadership, such as Reza Pahlavi. She notes, "There hasn't been a huge amount of domestic support because people...find his calls...tone deaf in the middle of a military conflict," but acknowledges underlying unrest: "there are groups, activists, and aspiring people in Iran's jails" contributing to potential instability.

Potential Outcomes:
Lawrence Norman elaborates on possible scenarios at [07:21], suggesting that increased pressure from military strikes could lead to significant changes within Iran's theocratic regime. He posits, "if Khamenei was assassinated...it could lead to a vacuum of power," potentially igniting a race for nuclear capability among hardliners desperate to counter Israel.

3. Additional News Highlights

Bank of New York Mellon and Northern Trust Merger Talks:
Venturing beyond geopolitical issues, the episode reports on the financial sector with Bank of New York Mellon approaching Northern Trust for a potential merger. However, Northern Trust has shown disinterest. Ben Dummett highlights the strategic timing, noting BNY's stock surge and the administration's favorable stance towards large bank deals, referencing the recent approval of Capital One's acquisition of Discover Financial Services.

Buy Now Pay Later Impact on Credit Scores:
The podcast also covers consumer finance trends, discussing Fair Isaac Corp.'s (FICO) new credit scoring model set to include "Buy Now Pay Later" (BNPL) transactions. Scheduled for rollout in the fall, this model could influence credit evaluations significantly, as Benz Dummett explains, "Pay later transactions are expected to top $108 billion this year in the US."

Tesla's Robo Taxis Launch in Texas:
In technology news, Tesla's deployment of Robo Taxis in Austin marks a significant milestone for autonomous vehicles. Elon Musk is featured at [11:54], stating, "We can't make people as a population incrementally better at driving, but we can do that with autonomous cars." The service, priced at a flat fee of $4.20 per ride, aims to test Tesla's driverless technology against competitors like Waymo, with ongoing remote monitoring to enhance performance and safety.

4. Conclusion

The episode encapsulates a critical juncture in US-Iran relations, underscored by military actions, political statements, and internal strife within Iran. Expert analyses from Lawrence Norman and Sanam Vakil provide depth to the discussion, illustrating the fragile state of Iran's regime amidst external pressures and internal dissent. Additionally, the podcast touches upon significant developments in the financial and technology sectors, offering listeners a well-rounded perspective on current events shaping global and domestic landscapes.

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Notable Quotes:

• Lawrence Norman ([04:10]): "Iran's embattled leaders...are in a bit of an existential struggle domestically...the destruction of [the social contract] is now the biggest challenge for them."

• Sanam Vakil ([05:43]): "The Islamic Republic has been facing a legitimacy crisis of its own making for quite some time...there are groups in the diaspora...supporting Reza Pahlavi."

• Lawrence Norman ([07:21]): "If Khamenei was assassinated...it could lead to a vacuum of power...a race essentially to create a nuclear bomb inside Iran."

• Elon Musk ([11:54]): "We can't make people as a population incrementally better at driving, but we can do that with autonomous cars."

This comprehensive summary provides an in-depth look into the podcast episode, capturing the essential discussions, insights, and expert opinions that shed light on the potential for regime change in Iran and other significant news developments.

Transcript

[Luke Vargas]

Viking committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on an elegant Viking longship with thoughtful service, cultural enrichment and all inclusive fares. Discover [e-mail] the US investigates how much of Iran's nuclear program it destroyed over the weekend as President Trump muses about regime change, we'll look at the likelihood of that prospect.

[Lawrence Norman]

Iran's embattled leaders, they find themselves now in a bit of an existential struggle domestically, and at stake is basically their nearly half century of rule.

[Luke Vargas]

Plus, buying now and paying later could soon affect your credit score and Tesla's robo taxis hit the streets. It's Monday, June 23rd. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal and here is the AM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving your world. Today, Iran's top diplomat has landed in Moscow for meetings with President Vladimir Putin. At a press conference before departing, Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi described Russia as a friend of Iran, with the meeting an opportunity to coordinate our positions. So far, Iran has given few clues about how it intends to respond to US Strikes against its nuclear facilities over the weekend, though Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said this morning that Israel must be punished and it is being punished. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is continuing to investigate just how much of Iran's nuclear program was destroyed by its strikes. Speaking yesterday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegsenth said Iran's nuclear ambitions had been obliterated and dealt a final blow.

[Lawrence Norman]

It was an incredible and overwhelming success.

[Luke Vargas]

But Journal reporter Lawrence Norman says that behind the scenes, the extent of the damage, especially at Iran's underground nuclear complex Fordo, is less clear.

[Sudarsan Raghavan]

We know that the US Seemed to have hit what they wanted to hit, where they thought the vulnerabilities at Fordo were. But we do not know whether all of the equipment in Fordo was damaged or destroyed, and we do not know if the site was put out of action. Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN Atomic Agency, said yesterday there is no way of knowing at this point without his inspectors being able to go to Fordeau, exactly the extent of the damage. And we've heard from Israeli officials who have echoed that.

[Luke Vargas]

And beyond Fordo, Lawrence said that comments yesterday BY Vice President J.D. vance suggested Iran may have managed to hold onto its stockpile of enriched uranium.

[Sudarsan Raghavan]

Why is it important? Well, if Iran decides we're going to try and build a bomb without anyone knowing in sites that we have not declared they need fissile material that they can then fairly quickly and easily turn into weapons grade material, and then they would actually have to build a nuclear warhead out of it, which is something they've never done. But without that stockpile of material, it's very, very difficult for Iran to divert enriched uranium in order to fuel a bomb.

[Luke Vargas]

So what happens next? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday his country was very, very close to completing its war goals of destroying Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and ending its ability to enrich uranium. However, President Trump is hinting that there could be more in the works. Posting on Truth Social, he said Sunday that qu it is not politically correct to use the term regime change, but if the current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, why wouldn't there be a regime change? Well, to better understand the domestic backdrop in Iran against which those comments are playing out, I spoke to Wall Street Journal senior Middle east correspondent Sudarsan Raghavan and Sanam Fakil, the director of the Middle east and North Africa program at the London think tank Chatham House. And note this conversation was conducted before the U.S. s weekend strike.

[Lawrence Norman]

Iran's embattled leaders, they find themselves now in a bit of an existential struggle domestically, and at stake is basically their nearly half century of rule. What we're seeing inside now is they're basically in damage control. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is pretty much responsible for Iran's security, has been utterly humiliated. Israel's attacks have shown how thoroughly its intelligence agency, Mossad, has been able to penetrate Iran, killing these top commanders in their homes. And it was same with the nuclear scientists as well. And that kind of intelligence must have taken years. It needed spies inside Iran, and the regime now is extremely aware how vulnerable it was. And even more so now. Right now, there's an entire propaganda campaign going on inside Iran where the state media outlets are publishing story after story about the Revolutionary Guards finding cells who are working for the Israelis. The political, military and security establishment inside Iran is really trying to regain this social contract that they had with the people, which basically was that we are going to protect you. And they didn't. And right now, this social contract, or the destruction of it, is now the biggest challenge for them pretty much internally.

[Luke Vargas]

Sanam, a propaganda effort underway to regain the social contract. Do we know how that's going over with the Iranian public?

[Sanam Vakil]

Well, I think the social contract has long been damaged in Iran. The Islamic Republic has been facing a legitimacy crisis of its own making for quite some time. Part of the reason why it engaged in initial negotiations with the Trump administration was that it, of course, needed sanctions relief to rehabilitate itself domestically to bring back investment into the country. Now, of course, there are groups in the diaspora, particularly rallying around the former monarch's son, his name is Reza Pahlavi, that are seizing the opportunity to support his candidacy for new monarch in a liberated Iran. There hasn't been a huge amount of domestic support because people inside that I have seen find his calls and support for protests and unrest to be a little tone deaf in the middle of a military conflict. But internally, of course, there are groups, there are activists, there are plenty of aspiring and visionary people in Iran's jails. There's also been a long history of ethnic protests and in Kurdish areas and Baluchi areas. So should we see unrest? Obviously, it's worthwhile noting that the state itself has a pretty effective crackdown playbook. But secondly, it is likely that what emerges from this war, and perhaps this is what Israel is trying to achieve, is a loosening of the bolts and a facilitation or an acceleration of change, not necessarily regime change, but changing the regime in Iran.

[Luke Vargas]

Sudarsan, your thoughts?

[Lawrence Norman]

I think what you have to understand is that when this happened, the theocracy was already under quite a bit of pressure even before this war erupted. Israel's military has basically been battering Iran's allies in the region, Lebanon's Hezbollah and Gaza's Hamas. Syria's Bashar Al Assad was toppled in December, another close ally. And inside too. Even before the war, protests were becoming even more frequent in response to economic problems within Iran. And what's happening now is that these strikes have amplified the pressure on the theocracy dramatically. What's a likely scenario could be is that if, let's say, Khamenei was assassinated, as the Israelis are threatening to do, it could lead to a vacuum of power, forcing the Revolutionary Guards and parts of the military to. To essentially take over and create some kind of military rule. And the problem with that is that there are quite a number of hardliners inside Iran who believe that the only way of fighting Israel is by reaching nuclear parity. What could happen is a race essentially to create a nuclear bomb inside Iran. And there's quite a lot of debate about that going now. Even as we speak amongst politicians, parliamentarians, people are wondering why didn't Iran create a nuclear bomb earlier? That could have been a significant deterrent. Perhaps they wouldn't be in this kind of situation now.

[Luke Vargas]

That was the Journal's Sudarsan Raghavan and Chatham House's Sanam Vakil. Coming up, we've got the rest of the day's news, including Tesla Robo taxis hitting the streets in Texas. That and more after the break.

[Reba McEntire]

Isn't home where we all want to be? Reba here for realtor.com, the Pro's number one most trusted Apple Finding a home is like dating. You're searching for the one with over 500,000 new listings every month. You can find the one today, download the realtor.com app cause you're nearly home. Make it real with realtor.com Pro's number.

[Ben Dummett]

One most trusted app based on August 2024 proprietary survey over 500,000 new listings every month based on average new for sale and rental listings February 2024 through January 2025.

[Luke Vargas]

In a potential monster deal for the financial services industry, we're reporting that bank of New York Mellon has approached its smaller rival Northern Trust about a possible merger. The chief executives of both banks have had at least one conversation about a merger, but we understand that Northern Trust is not interested. Still, Journal deals reporter Ben Dummett says the timing makes sense for bny.

[Peter Stone]

Bny, its stock price has surged over the last year, is up more than 50%, giving it a market cap of some $65 billion. So BNY is in a position, if it choose to to use the strength of its stock price to help finance any deal. The administration has shown a greater willingness than past administrations to prove big bank deals. That's supported by the decision earlier this year by US bank regulators to approve Capital One's $35 billion purchase of Discover Financial Services.

[Luke Vargas]

People familiar with the matter said BNY is now considering its next steps. Spreading out your payments using Buy Now Pay later services could soon dent your credit. We are exclusively reporting that Fair Isaac Corp. The company behind the most widely used US Credit score, says it's rolling out a new model in the fall that will factor Pay later loans, one of the fastest growing types of consumer credit in recent years. Banks and credit card companies will evaluate the new data but don't have to rely on it, according to market research firm Emarketer, Pay later transactions are expected to top $108 billion this year in the US up from 94 billion last year. And Tesla rolled out its long awaited Robo Taxi service in Austin, Texas over the weekend, where its driverless technology will be put to the test against market. Waymo Tesla will remotely monitor the performance of the vehicles and help them to navigate through difficult situations. Peter Stone is the chairman of the University of Texas Computer Science program and says that while driverless technology may never be perfect, it could soon outperform human drivers.

[Elon Musk]

We can't make people as a population incrementally better at driving, but we can do that with autonomous cars. And so that's what's going on in the testing phase, is trying to to identify the most likely things to go wrong, to fix them once and for all, and then to make the events that they don't respond right correctly to. Rarer and rarer.

[Luke Vargas]

In a post on X, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that customers will be charged a flat fee per ride of $4.20. And that's it for what's news for this Monday morning. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bach and Kate Bullivant. Our supervising producer was Sandra Kilhoff. And I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.

[Reba McEntire]

Isn't home where we all want to be? Reba? Here for realtor.com, the Pro's number one most trusted app, Finding a home is like dating. You're searching for the 1 with over 500,000 new listings every month. You can find the one Today, download the realtor.com app cause you're nearly home. Make it real with realtor.com Pro's number.

[Ben Dummett]

One most trusted app. Based on August 2024 proprietary survey. Over 500,000 new listings every month based on average new for sale and rental listings February 2024 through January 2025.