WSJ What’s News: “Trump Muses About Regime Change in Iran. Could It Happen?”

Release Date: June 23, 2025

The Wall Street Journal's podcast episode titled "Trump Muses About Regime Change in Iran. Could It Happen?" delves deep into the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, exploring the ramifications of recent military actions and political rhetoric. Hosted by Luke Vargas, the episode provides comprehensive coverage of the latest developments, expert analyses, and the broader geopolitical context surrounding the potential for regime change in Iran.

1. US Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Overview of Recent Events:
The episode opens with a report on the United States' military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities over the past weekend. The Pentagon is actively assessing the extent of the destruction inflicted on Iran's nuclear program. Defense Secretary Pete Hegsenth declared the strikes a significant blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions, stating at [00:39] that "Iran's nuclear ambitions had been obliterated and dealt a final blow."

Investigating the Damage:
However, Wall Street Journal reporter Lawrence Norman provides a more nuanced perspective at [01:47], highlighting uncertainties regarding the actual damage, especially at the Fordow underground nuclear complex. Norman remarks, "It was an incredible and overwhelming success," while also noting, "behind the scenes, the extent of the damage...is less clear."

Expert Insights:
Sudarsan Raghavan, Senior Middle East Correspondent, adds context at [02:02], explaining the complexities in determining the full impact of the strikes: "We do not know whether all of the equipment in Fordow was damaged or destroyed, and we do not know if the site was put out of action." Rafael Grossi of the UN Atomic Agency echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the need for on-ground inspections to ascertain the true scale of the damage.

2. President Trump's Comments on Regime Change

Trump's Rhetoric:
The conversation shifts to President Trump's comments on regime change in Iran. At [03:17], Vargas reports that Trump, in a post on Truth Social, hinted at the possibility of regime change if the current Iranian leadership fails to "make Iran great again." He stated, "Why wouldn't there be a regime change?"

Domestic Backdrop in Iran:
To unpack the implications of Trump's comments, Vargas engages with experts Lawrence Norman and Sanam Vakil from Chatham House. Lawrence Norman discusses the internal struggles within Iran at [04:10], stating, "Iran's embattled leaders...are in a bit of an existential struggle domestically," and highlighting the humiliation faced by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps due to Israeli intelligence operations.

Sanam Vakil's Analysis:
Sanam Vakil provides further insights at [05:37], explaining the weakened social contract in Iran and the rising support for alternative leadership, such as Reza Pahlavi. She notes, "There hasn't been a huge amount of domestic support because people...find his calls...tone deaf in the middle of a military conflict," but acknowledges underlying unrest: "there are groups, activists, and aspiring people in Iran's jails" contributing to potential instability.

Potential Outcomes:
Lawrence Norman elaborates on possible scenarios at [07:21], suggesting that increased pressure from military strikes could lead to significant changes within Iran's theocratic regime. He posits, "if Khamenei was assassinated...it could lead to a vacuum of power," potentially igniting a race for nuclear capability among hardliners desperate to counter Israel.

3. Additional News Highlights

Bank of New York Mellon and Northern Trust Merger Talks:
Venturing beyond geopolitical issues, the episode reports on the financial sector with Bank of New York Mellon approaching Northern Trust for a potential merger. However, Northern Trust has shown disinterest. Ben Dummett highlights the strategic timing, noting BNY's stock surge and the administration's favorable stance towards large bank deals, referencing the recent approval of Capital One's acquisition of Discover Financial Services.

Buy Now Pay Later Impact on Credit Scores:
The podcast also covers consumer finance trends, discussing Fair Isaac Corp.'s (FICO) new credit scoring model set to include "Buy Now Pay Later" (BNPL) transactions. Scheduled for rollout in the fall, this model could influence credit evaluations significantly, as Benz Dummett explains, "Pay later transactions are expected to top $108 billion this year in the US."

Tesla's Robo Taxis Launch in Texas:
In technology news, Tesla's deployment of Robo Taxis in Austin marks a significant milestone for autonomous vehicles. Elon Musk is featured at [11:54], stating, "We can't make people as a population incrementally better at driving, but we can do that with autonomous cars." The service, priced at a flat fee of $4.20 per ride, aims to test Tesla's driverless technology against competitors like Waymo, with ongoing remote monitoring to enhance performance and safety.

4. Conclusion

The episode encapsulates a critical juncture in US-Iran relations, underscored by military actions, political statements, and internal strife within Iran. Expert analyses from Lawrence Norman and Sanam Vakil provide depth to the discussion, illustrating the fragile state of Iran's regime amidst external pressures and internal dissent. Additionally, the podcast touches upon significant developments in the financial and technology sectors, offering listeners a well-rounded perspective on current events shaping global and domestic landscapes.

Notable Quotes:

• Lawrence Norman ([04:10]): "Iran's embattled leaders...are in a bit of an existential struggle domestically...the destruction of [the social contract] is now the biggest challenge for them."

• Sanam Vakil ([05:43]): "The Islamic Republic has been facing a legitimacy crisis of its own making for quite some time...there are groups in the diaspora...supporting Reza Pahlavi."

• Lawrence Norman ([07:21]): "If Khamenei was assassinated...it could lead to a vacuum of power...a race essentially to create a nuclear bomb inside Iran."

• Elon Musk ([11:54]): "We can't make people as a population incrementally better at driving, but we can do that with autonomous cars."

This comprehensive summary provides an in-depth look into the podcast episode, capturing the essential discussions, insights, and expert opinions that shed light on the potential for regime change in Iran and other significant news developments.