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- [00:00]
Luke Vargas
Ugh.
- [00:01]
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- [00:18]
Luke Vargas
Hey, still got my hoodie?
- [00:19]
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- [00:34]
Luke Vargas
President Trump tells aides that he wants a speedy end to the Iran war. Plus a look at the traders making big money on last minute bets tied to White House policy.
- [00:43]
Alex Sandra Osipovich
During an otherwise quiet hour in the oil futures market. There was more than $760 million worth of trading in Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures.
- [00:55]
Luke Vargas
And after unearthing hundreds of millions of carats, Rio Tinto exits the diamond business. It's Thursday, March 20th, 26th. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal and here is the AM Edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving YOUR world today. Nearly a month into the war with Iran, President Trump has privately told advisers that he believes the conflict is in its final stages and hopes for a diplomatic settlement to bring it to an end within weeks.
- [01:24]
Donald Trump
We're winning so big, nobody's ever seen anything like we're doing in the Middle east with Iran. And they are negotiating, by the way, and they want to make a deal so badly, but they're afraid to say it because they figure they'll be killed by their own people, they're also afraid they'll be killed by us.
- [01:41]
Luke Vargas
That was Trump speaking at an event in Washington last night. We report that while there are no easy options for ending the war and the president still has objectives like securing US Access to some of Iran's oil, Trump's attention has at times shifted. In discussions with political allies, Trump has begun focusing on November's midterms, tightening voter eligibility rules and addressing long lines at airports. Close advisors also want him to prioritize the most pressing issue facing concerns about the cost of living, which have been exacerbated by the war. Meanwhile, facing the risk of tariffs on top of war related costs, EU lawmakers are today voting on whether to back a trade deal reached with the US last year. Our Kim McCrail is in Brussels.
- [02:24]
Kim McCrail
The deal that was reached last year is where the US agreed to cap tariffs for most EU exports to the US at 15%. And this vote is important because Europeans are worried that if they don't cut their tariffs, the US could renege on its pledge to keep most of its tariffs on the EU at 15% or lower. And actually, that's something that Trump's ambassador to the EU warned was a possibility during an interview he did with the Wall Street Journal earlier this week.
- [02:49]
Luke Vargas
To cushion against changes in U.S. policy, EU lawmakers have made the bloc's tariff cuts conditional on Washington fulfilling its side of the bargain. And while President Trump's tariff decisions, military strikes and sudden policy shifts over the past year have often moved markets, our reporting shows that there have been several occasions in which unusual trades have hit the tape just ahead of major announcements. You may have heard on the show about one trader who made more than $400,000 in profits after placing a series of bets on polymarket about the timing of Nicolas Maduro losing power in Venezuela, with the last one coming just an hour before Trump announced his capture. And as Journal reporter Alex Sandra Osipovich explains, that's not the only unusual trade.
- [03:33]
Alex Sandra Osipovich
On Monday morning, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he was postponing his threatened attacks on Iranian energy plants. This caused a wild shift in the market. It caused stock futures to go up, caused oil futures to drop precipitously, and then we discovered not too long afterwards that there had been a flurry of trading activity just about 15 minutes before Trump sent that market moving post. During an otherwise quiet hour in the oil futures market, there was more than $760 million worth of trading in Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, and there was no real catalyst for this to happen. This led immediately to speculation that somebody had traded ahead of Trump's announcement.
- [04:17]
Luke Vargas
Democratic lawmakers have called for an investigation into the trades, saying they resemble corruption. The White House has denied that its officials were involved in any sort of illegal insider trading and called such speculation baseless. A sharp slowdown in immigration is reshaping some of America's biggest cities. New census figures show that the la, San Diego and Miami areas all shrank in the year through June 2025, and half of the 50 largest metro areas lost more people than they gained from the rest of the US Strong growth is continuing elsewhere, though, with several mid sized and smaller cities across the Carolinas, Texas and Mountain west growing at four times the national rate. Or Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. S pick for surgeon general has hit a standstill in her confirmation process. We report that healthy food advocate Dr. Casey means currently lacks enough GOP support to advance out of the Senate's Health Committee and faces additional hurdles in the full Senate. However, the White House hasn't dropped her nomination given her support from Kennedy as well as other members of the Make America Healthy Again movement, with an official saying that skeptical Republicans could still be brought around and the US Postal Service is turning to fuel surcharges for the first time in an effort to try and stabilize its budget amid soaring fuel and transport costs. The 8% fee will apply to packages only and kicks in next month. Both FedEx and UPS, which have imposed surcharges for years, dramatically raised theirs in recent weeks amid turmoil in the Middle East. Coming up, how the shipping industry is managing one of the biggest crises since the pandemic and a diamond mine Once Preferred by Harry Winston loses its luster after the break.
- [06:08]
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- [06:39]
Luke Vargas
German shipping giant Hapag Lloyd is telling investors to brace for an earnings slump this year thanks to disruptions caused by the Iran war and sharply rising costs. It's just the latest such message from container shipping operators who've been forced to suspend routes and send boats on longer journeys to try and avoid fighting, including direct attacks from Iran. With commercial shipping under threat, I spoke with the Secretary General of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, and began by asking how the industry's faring.
- [07:10]
Arsenio Dominguez
It's very challenging, particularly because of the 20,000 innocent seafarers that are actually trapped in the Strait of Hormuz because of this conflict. It's around 2,000 vessels as well. That of course, the longer that this conflict takes, the more worries that we will be on the supplies for these seafarers, from food, water to oil and fuel for these vessels to continue to at least be operating there. There's no ways for us to start working on crew changes because there is a conflict area and there are limitations in relation to flights as well.
- [07:46]
Wall Street Journal Interviewer
These seafarers can't dock at a nearby port. I mean, presumably they're at risk when they're at anchor just as much as they are in port.
- [07:53]
Arsenio Dominguez
It's a conflict area. So even the port facilities have been targeted as well, and the movement is more limited. We have to remember as well that air traffic has been disrupted. And in order for a ship to change crews, we need to bring new one in. And of course, that I wouldn't call for any innocent seafighter right now to travel into this region and board a vessel. This is what becomes very difficult. Ships cannot be left unattended. They become immediately a hazard.
- [08:20]
Wall Street Journal Interviewer
I know you're leading efforts to try and create a safe corridor through the strait.
- [08:24]
Luke Vargas
What might that look like?
- [08:26]
Arsenio Dominguez
Right now, we're looking first into those ships that are probably more in need in relation to supplies to the seafarers that need any assistance. In parallel, we are developing the operational aspects and then getting the commitment from the member states around the region that the ships can evacuate in accordance to the decision that we took last week to establish a framework, a mechanism in order for the ships to transit out of the Strait of Hormuz.
- [08:52]
Wall Street Journal Interviewer
Does an outcome of this war need to be a new arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz going forward?
- [08:57]
Arsenio Dominguez
What we need is the situation to actually go back to what it was before three weeks ago. In order for shipping to continue to navigate, we have to recognize the geographical limitations that already exist in that region.
- [09:08]
Wall Street Journal Interviewer
Though a potential legacy if this doesn't end well, or even if it even were to end today, I guess, is that this demonstrates how effective it is to use commercial shipping as a pawn in geopolitical conflict.
- [09:19]
Arsenio Dominguez
That's something that we have been experiencing in recent years from conflicts. I mean, the Red Sea was another example in that respect. And that's why the call from us and from my side will continue to reiterate the fact that shipping is innocent and should not be used as collateral damage. The more that everybody around the world notices how negatively affected it is because of these kind of situations, the more that shipping will start getting the recognition that it actually deserves and normally doesn't get, particularly the innocent sea fighters that work on board.
- [09:50]
Wall Street Journal Interviewer
We're here at the Wall Street Journal. A lot of global trade, the price of commodities, is often a reason things get done right. It almost seems like every day we look at a new industry and see how it's affected by the continued closure of the straight helium at the end of last week. Is there more to come if this keeps playing out?
- [10:08]
Arsenio Dominguez
For the longer this conflict and the situation continues, the more that we will see the negative effect. We're talking about an area that exports 20% of oil to the rest of the world that already has an impact on several other sectors in industry. Then when we looked into fertilizers, 13% come from there, as well as other chemicals that has an immediate effect, negative effect on agriculture and food security. Then of course is all the humanitarian aspect that has to go into the necessary essential goods for the people in the communities around the Persian Gulf. All this will have a longer negative effect and of course increase costs for as long as the conflict is in place. Logistically, when ships don't meet their schedules, there starts piling up in different ports and their ports need to start adjusting their operations. All these has a negative effect that takes weeks, sometimes months for the whole logistical sector in shipping to actually then go back to normal.
- [11:07]
Wall Street Journal Interviewer
We've been hearing, particularly some countries in Southeast Asia really needing some of the products coming out of the Persian Gulf to keep their economies ticking. Would the IMO be involved in, I don't know, helping redirect other global maritime traffic to countries in need if some of the concerns you're talking about worsen?
- [11:24]
Arsenio Dominguez
We don't work directly on those trade decisions. But of course shipping can activate other routes if required. What it's important to recognize is that since we're talking about the essential goods that come from this region, even through multimodal transportation, there will be limitations for them to actually reach out to the final destination. So the reality is that we go back to how essential shipping is on this very strategic part of the world and how we need this conflict to de escalate and allow us to continue to trade as normal.
- [11:55]
Wall Street Journal Interviewer
Arsenio Dominguez is the Secretary General of the International Maritime Organization. Secretary General, thank you so much for being with us on what's news.
- [12:02]
Arsenio Dominguez
Thank you.
- [12:04]
Luke Vargas
And it's the end of an era for the world's second biggest miner, Rio Tinto, which says that it's dug up its last diamond after producing more than 150 million carats of diamonds at its Diavik mine in Canada's Northwest Territories. Journal reporter Rhiannon Hoyle says that the company dug up everything that it could profitably mine there and is shifting its focus to commodities like copper, which it expects to drive future growth.
- [12:28]
Rhiannon Hoyle
This is a striking mine that really put Canadian diamonds on the map. It is a resource that was found beneath a frozen lake and had huge challenges in getting these diamonds out, but was incredibly profitable for many years. For Rio Tinto, the closure is also happening at what has been a difficult time for diamond miners, which have faced headwinds from the rise of cheaper lab made diamonds. So Rio Tinto's peer, Anglo American, has been looking to offload its own storied De Beers diamond business. But efforts have been complicated by tough market conditions, leading it to last month halve the value it puts on the business, its third such downgrade in three years.
- [13:06]
Luke Vargas
American jeweler Harry Winston formerly held a stake in the Diavik mine, which primarily produced white gems and on occasion, rare yellow diamonds. And that's it for what's news for this Thursday morning. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bock and Hattie Moyer. Our supervising producer is Sandra Kilhoff. And I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.
- [13:37]
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- [13:53]
Rhiannon Hoyle
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