Trump Says It’s Unclear Who Will Lead Iran

Summary

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WSJ What’s News — PM Edition

Episode: Trump Says It’s Unclear Who Will Lead Iran
Date: March 3, 2026
Host: Alex Osola (The Wall Street Journal)
Guests: Vera Bergen Gruen (WSJ National Security Reporter), Alex Ward (WSJ National Security Reporter), Hannah Aaron Lang (WSJ Markets Reporter)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the fallout from the recent US-Israeli strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the geopolitical, domestic, and market turmoil that has ensued. President Trump faces scrutiny over the administration’s rationale for striking Iran, uncertain succession within Iran’s leadership, increasing instability in the region, and volatile global markets. The episode features insights from national security and market reporters, delving into the administration’s shifting strategies, the risk of a prolonged conflict, and the immediate impacts on oil prices and equities.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iran’s Leadership Vacuum and Uncertainty

• Situation Overview

  • Three days after the joint US-Israeli strike, Iran faces a leadership crisis with the Supreme Leader and many senior officials dead ([00:33]-[01:07]).
  • President Trump admits uncertainty, saying “who comes next isn’t obvious,” as many expected successors were also killed.

• Trump’s Public Statements

  • "We had some in mind from that group that is dead, and now we have another group. They may be dead also based on reports." (President Trump, [01:07])
  • Trump suggests succession may come from within the remaining regime inner circle:
    • “It would seem to me that somebody from within maybe would be more appropriate.” (President Trump, [01:21])

2. Possible US Strategies: Contradictions & Complexity

• Mixed Messages from the Administration

  • President Trump is “trying to make a deal with the regime that he’s encouraging people to overthrow, which really shows that there isn’t a clear defined endgame.” (Vera Bergen Gruen, [00:25] & [02:18])
    • On one hand, Trump calls for Iranians to “rise up”—essentially backing a coup.
    • On the other, he expresses openness to a “Venezuela model” of installing an insider to maintain stability and declare victory.

• No Boots-on-the-Ground Doctrine

  • Trump “does not want boots on the ground, he does not want to do nation building.”
  • “The best case scenario is finding someone who already has authority in the country, who can take over, who can manage all this mess, and he can get out, say that he’s deposed the foreign leader of this brutal regime and declare victory.” (Vera Bergen Gruen, [03:04])
  • Internal divisions: Some in the administration push for dismantling the entire hardline regime.

• Past Precedents & Broken Rules

  • Previous Trump doctrine:
    • “One overwhelming show of force... then you get out and you declare victory.”
    • “No boots on the ground, no US invasion.”
  • Now, “this is the closest he’s ever come to really testing that.” (Vera Bergen Gruen, [03:04])

3. On the Ground: Regional Instability and Domestic Anxiety

• Diplomatic Fallout

  • US embassies and missions across the Middle East come under attack—leading to closures in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon, and evacuations underway ([04:23]).

• Scrutiny on the Rationale for War

  • President Trump cites imminent Iranian plans to attack Israel and others:
    • “I thought we were going to have a situation where we were going to be attacked. They were getting ready to attack Israel, they were getting ready to attack others.” (President Trump, [05:08])
  • Experts and US officials challenge the completeness and accuracy of these claims ([05:19]).

4. Debating the Case for Striking Iran

• Shifting Official Justifications

  • Trump cited various reasons pre-strike:
    • Crackdown on protesters
    • Refusal to dismantle nuclear and missile programs
    • Historic aggression towards the US
    • Claims of imminent development of intercontinental missiles

• Expert Analysis

  • “The administration had multiple arguments for why this needed to happen... They were really trying to make the case for the why.” (Alex Ward, [06:46])
  • The defensive case: “doing this out of self-defense because the American homeland was going to be or was nearly going to be directly targeted.”
  • “It’s just not what is in the intelligence. It’s not what the security officials that we talk to are saying.” (Alex Ward, [07:40])

5. Market Turmoil: Wall Street's Roller Coaster

• Equity Market Volatility

  • The Dow plunged over 1,200 points early in the day, recovering to close 400 points lower; all major indexes down ~1% ([08:22]).
  • “If this conflict is brief, if it’s relatively contained, then the idea is that markets can digest that risk a little more easily...” (Hannah Aaron Lang, [08:42])
  • Investors wrestled with mixed messages about conflict duration from the White House.

• Oil Shock

  • Brent crude futures spike past $85/barrel—the highest since 2024; US gasoline prices rise sharply ([09:22]).
  • Strait of Hormuz tankers are at a standstill (>3,000 ships). US Navy may escort tankers if needed.
  • “Oil prices will be high, quote, for a little while, but should drop after hostilities with Iran. End.” (Paraphrased from President Trump, [09:22])

• Other Markets & Policy News

  • Target’s sales decline continues even as shares jump on hopes for recovery
  • Justice Department reverses stance on executive orders over law firm sanctions.

6. Election Watch

• Primary Elections in Texas and North Carolina
  • Key for balance of Senate power; results & analysis on WSJ.com

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iranian Succession:
  • "We had some in mind from that group that is dead, and now we have another group. They may be dead also based on reports."
    — President Trump ([01:07])
• On Contradictory US Policy:
  • "He’s trying to make a deal with the regime that he’s encouraging people to overthrow, which really shows that there isn’t a clear defined endgame."
    — Vera Bergen Gruen ([02:18])
• On Trump’s Military Doctrine:
  • "The best case scenario is finding someone who already has authority in the country, who can take over, who can manage all this mess, and he can get out, say that he’s deposed the foreign leader of this brutal regime and declare victory."
    — Vera Bergen Gruen ([03:04])
• On Intelligence Justification:
  • "The administration had multiple arguments for why this needed to happen... It’s just not what is in the intelligence. It’s not what the security officials that we talk to are saying."
    — Alex Ward ([06:46], [07:40])
• On Investor Sentiment:
  • "If this conflict is brief, if it’s relatively contained, then the idea is that markets can digest that risk a little more easily... Then Trump and other officials made some comments that seem to indicate that this would be a much more prolonged conflict..."
    — Hannah Aaron Lang ([08:42])

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• 00:18: Opening on Trump’s shifting Iran strategy
• 01:07: President Trump’s comments on Iranian succession
• 01:26: Introduction of Vera Bergen Gruen; discussion of Iran’s interim council
• 02:18: US aims and contradictions in dealing with Iran’s regime
• 03:04: Trump’s military doctrine and current policy dilemmas
• 04:23: Worsening security for US embassies in the Middle East
• 05:08: Trump’s rationale for striking Iran; challenge from experts begins
• 06:01: Alex Ward unpacks missile claims and shifting justifications
• 08:22: Market summary and investor reactions with Hannah Aaron Lang
• 09:22: Oil price surge and Strait of Hormuz situation
• 10:15: Target corporate update and DOJ news
• 11:21: End of main news coverage

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Tone and Style

This episode strikes a brisk, urgent, and factual tone, combining concise reporting with deep analysis from experienced journalists. Direct quotes from President Trump and expert guests interweave with market and policy updates, offering real-time context amid an escalating international crisis.

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Transcript

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[Alex Osola]

Trump says much of Iran's military is knocked out and he seems to be deciding what to do about the country's future in real time.

[Vera Bergen Gruen]

He's trying to make a deal with the regime that he's encouraging people to overthrow, which really shows that there isn't a clear defined endgame.

[Alex Osola]

Plus, scrutiny is growing over the Trump administration's case for war and the Middle east conflict sends stocks spinning. It's Tuesday, March 3rd. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. It's been three days since the US Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. President Trump today told reporters that who comes next in Iran isn't obvious and many of the country's would be leaders have been killed.

[President Trump]

We had some in mind from that group that is dead, and now we have another group. They may be dead also based on reports.

[Alex Osola]

And he suggested that someone inside the regime should be in charge.

[President Trump]

It would seem to me that somebody from within maybe would be more appropriate.

[Alex Osola]

I've said that US Officials are also saying that President Trump is open to supporting groups in Iran who could fight to dislodge the regime. Journal National Security reporter Vera Bergen Gruen joins me now from Washington. Okay, Vera, on a functional level, who is actually running Iran right now?

[Vera Bergen Gruen]

So after the death of a supreme leader, the country formed an interim council and there's basically three people. They're still hardline clerics and they're waiting to select a successor. But obviously they're in the middle of this massive military assault. And we have little visibility into who's actually running a lot of those decisions because besides the supreme leader, a lot of his inner circle, a lot of the very top officials that the US Kind of looked at as power brokers have been killed as well.

[Alex Osola]

We just heard a few clips from President Trump here about who he thinks should be in charge of the country. What role is the US Going to play in the successor to the supreme leader?

[Vera Bergen Gruen]

Trump has floated quite a few options and he's offering really contrasting visions as to how that could work. He obviously, on Saturday when he launched the military operation, called on Iran to rise up to take over their government, basically encouraging a coup or A revolt. At the same time, he has been very clear that he would love what he calls the Venezuela model, which is working with an insider in the regime to keep most of it in place, keep it stable, and declare victory. Because he took out the top bad guy, basically. So, you know, these are obviously very different things. He's trying to make a deal with the regime that he's encouraging people to overthrow, which really shows that there isn't a clear defined end game.

[Alex Osola]

What is the best case scenario for the administration? What are they looking for in a successor?

[Vera Bergen Gruen]

It really depends who you ask. The president, he's been quite clear that he does not want boots on the ground, he does not want to do nation building. The best case scenario is finding someone who already has authority in the country who can take over, who can manage all this mess, and he can get out, say that he's deposed the foreign leader of this brutal regime and declare victory. A lot of other people in the administration disagree with that. A lot of the hardliners who have been pressing Trump to take action, you know, really want the entire repressive structure dismantled. But several people I spoke with who were in Trump's first administration said he had two rules. One was military action, had to be one and done. You do one overwhelming show of force. We saw this in Venezuela, we saw it in Nigeria, we saw it in Iran last year. And then you get out and you declare victory. He broke that rule. Now, in this extended military engagement, we have six dead American troops, and he said this could last for four weeks. The second rule was no boots on the ground, no US Invasion. He basically built his whole political career on saying that he had learned the mistakes of the post 911 war on terror, and he wasn't going to commit US troops to any extended quagmires in the Middle East. This is the closest he's ever come to really testing that.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Vera Bergen Gruen. Thanks, Vera.

[Vera Bergen Gruen]

Thanks so much.

[Alex Osola]

President Trump said today that much of Iran's military has been, quote, knocked out. Meanwhile, US Embassies and diplomatic missions remain under fire in the Middle east with two attacks today on the U.S. embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The U.S. has shut down embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon indefinitely, and consular operations are largely suspended in several countries. The State Department says it's working on getting military and charter flights for American citizens who want to leave the region. Meanwhile, back in the U.S. president Trump's reasons for striking Iran are facing growing scrutiny. He's made a number of Accusations about the regime's threats to its neighbors, American troops and the US Itself. Speaking from the Oval Office today, President Trump said he ordered the strike because he was afraid that Iran would attack first.

[President Trump]

I thought we were going to have a situation where we were going to be attacked. They were getting ready to attack Israel, they were getting ready to attack others.

[Alex Osola]

But experts and U.S. officials with access to classified information say the administration's assertions are incomplete, unsubstantiated or flat out wrong. WSJ national security reporter Alex Ward joins me now with more. Alex. Ahead of the strike, President Trump had said a number of different things about why the US should attack Iran. He threatened strikes over the crackdown on anti regime protesters. Then in negotiations, Iran was refusing to dismantle its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Trump also mentioned Iran's decades long aggression towards the US but in the lead up to the attack, senior administration officials argued that Iran was developing intercontinental missiles capable of reaching American shores. What's behind that claim and what does other evidence show about this?

[Alex Ward]

So the US Was receiving intelligence that the Iranians were trying to really go whole hog on building up a missile arsenal. They believe some of the material they found in Iran's possession could be used for more missiles or even do ICBM work. An intercontinental ballistic missile, which is an ocean spanning missile and they've been testing satellite launch vehicles, so literally put satellites into space, which is like directly conducive toward making an icbm. But the question for basically all the administration's arguments are, you know, was this looming threat an imminent threat?

[Alex Osola]

I rattled off a bunch of different stuff. Does that mean that the Trump administration was shifting its justification or that all of these things were kind of taken together?

[Alex Ward]

The administration had multiple arguments for why this needed to happen. You did list them then. They were really trying to make the case for the wine. Now, Friday night, Saturday morning, basically their case was the Iranians are weak and they're making these moves towards nuclear development and missile development and they might strike Americans. They're basically making a defensive case, saying that they're doing this out of self defense because the American homeland was going to be or was nearly going to be directly targeted. Look, the Iranian regime is odious and they did crack down on protesters in January. They had killed American service members over many decades. They were responsible for terror and destruction throughout the Middle East. But the case they're making is that somehow this Iranian threat, which has existed for a long time, was going to attack Americans or was, was near achieving this exquisite missile capability. It's just not what is in the intelligence. It's not what the security officials that we talk to are saying.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ national Security reporter Alex Ward. Thanks, Alex.

[Alex Ward]

Thanks for having me.

[Alex Osola]

Coming up, it was a roller coaster day in markets. That story and more after the.

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[Alex Osola]

The Dow went on a wild ride in today's trading, dropping more than 1,200 points in the morning and then clawing back some of those losses to end about 400 points lower. All three of the indexes finished the day down roughly 1%. Journal markets reporter Hannah Aaron Lang says investors are reacting to different signals from the Trump administration.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

If this conflict is brief, if it's relatively contained, then the idea is that markets can digest that risk a little more easily. Then Trump and other officials made some comments that seem to indicate that this would be a much more prolonged conflict, that these attacks would continue for weeks rather than days. Then President Trump made some comments. Iran's military had largely been neutralized, he said, and I think investors might have gained some confidence there that again, there's maybe some evidence that this won't last as long as they had feared and therefore what kind of impact, how large of an impact is this going to have on the entire global economy?

[Alex Osola]

Oil prices continue to soar. Futures for Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, briefly topped $85 a barrel for the first time since the middle of 2024. The average U.S. price of a gallon of regular gasoline rose 11 cents to $3.11 today. That remains far off records of more than $5 a gallon from back in 2022. President Trump said today that oil prices will be high, quote for a little while, but should drop after hostilities with Iran. End. Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is at a virtual standstill, with more than 3,000 ships waiting to get through. President Trump said this afternoon that the U.S. navy will escort tankers through the Strait if necessary. Target's comparable sales fell 2.5% in the most recent quarter, its 13th straight quarter of weak or falling sales. The retailer's new CEO has a plan to pull the company out of its funk. Target's merchandising, shopping experience and technology are all up for improvements for this year. Target expects net sales to grow around 2%. Shares closed up more than 6.7%. The Justice Department told a court today that it plans to press forward with the defense of President Trump's executive orders sanctioning law firms. Less than 24 hours ago, the Justice Department asked to drop the cases. The executive orders punishing the firms included stripping security clearances and restricted their access to federal buildings. Several firms then sued and won in court. The Trump administration appealed, and today is the primary election in Texas and North Carolina. The winners of the closely watched races will compete in November's general election, and the outcome could tip the balance of the senate. Go to WSJ.com tonight for results and analysis. And that's what's news for this Tuesday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Pierre Biennime with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osoleff for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

[Vera Bergen Gruen]

Foreign.

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